flash
Ted Kluszewski
Posts: 703
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Post by flash on Jan 31, 2018 16:27:42 GMT -5
This will be a great spring training. So many guys competing for so few jobs. The starting rotation has only one open spot, but Mahle Reed , Stephenson, Garrett and other will be competing. Can Senzel make the jump to the major leagues. What will Siri be like? Can Ervin hold on to his job? Can Elizarde finally get some attention? Will Billy Hamilton be the opening day centerfielder? Whay is no one talking about these things? the board seems empty of debate.
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Post by redsfanman on Jan 31, 2018 19:03:35 GMT -5
I think it'll pick up a bit when spring training starts, it's been a dead offseason in MLB all around. You'll find several competing theories of why this board is dead, my theory is excessive negativity. Others will blame me for being condescending when they say stupid stuff. You'll probably find other theories, too.
It should definitely be an exciting spring, with lots of the young talent we've been waiting for on display. Several important health questions - guys we've heard for months are now fully healthy and going through routine offseasons, getting to prove it for the first time to the "i'll believe it when I see it!" crowd.
I think there are rotation favorites verging on locks: -Homer Bailey (had a full healthy offseason, hopefully a fresh start returns him to his old form) -Anthony DeSclafani (avoided surgery, reportedly 100%) -Brandon Finnegan (Reportedly fully recovered from muscle strain and surgery to his non-throwing shoulder) -Luis Castillo
Then there are other serious candidates: -Robert Stephenson (who I'd choose as the 5th starter today) -Sal Romano (I think he has more to prove in AAA than some candidates) -Amir Garrett (we saw what he could do last April before his hip injury, reportedly fine now) -Tyler Mahle (He should definitely return to AAA for service time issues and experience)
Then there are guys who might be candidates in other seasons: -Cody Reed (ugly results after tinkering with his mechanics to hide the ball and avoid tipping pitches, hopefully he has it figured out... but should prove it in AAA) -Jackson Stephens (He's fine, ish, send him to AAA Louisville) -Jon Moscot (I think he's now fully healthy and recovered from Tommy John surgery) -Vance Worley (Veteran MLB starter and non-roster invitee)
Injured: -Rookie Davis. That's a short list.
-Jose Siri isn't competing for anything in camp, he'll head to Daytona, probably in the first wave of cuts.
-Phil Ervin holding his job is an interesting question. It seems like his only current competition for a 5th outfielder role is Patrick Kivlehan, who doesn't (really) play CF. Like, even to the extent Phil Ervin does. I think Ervin breaks camp on the Reds bench... with a trade or injury Kivlehan might too.
-Sebastian Elizalde is basically a warm body in camp, not really competing for anything.
I think two of the interesting hitters to watch in camp will be 2b Dilson Herrera and INF Alex Blandino. One of them, but only one, seems likely to start the season with the Reds. Herrera's shoulder is, at best, an unknown, but the situation now basically defines him and his chances. I could easily imagine Alex Blandino having a strong spring and breaking camp as the backup 2b/SS (I mean, if Phil Gosselin is to be considered a shortstop...).
The bullpen battle between Ariel Hernandez, Kevin Shackelford, Austin Brice, Zach Weiss, Joe Mantiply, Kyle Crockett... and Kevin Quackenbush and Vance Worley... could be interesting. At the moment they're seemingly competing for 2 spots, and I expect more minor league free agents to sign.
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Post by redsfanman on Jan 31, 2018 19:33:02 GMT -5
Still a bunch of guys out there who might accept minor league deals, at this rate:
RHPs: -John Axford -Matt Belisle (he's better than that!) -Trevor Cahill (maybe he still gets a MLB deal?) -Tyler Clippard -Scott Feldman -Jason Motte -Bud Norris (hard to imagine he doesn't get a MLB deal after 2017, but who knows?) -Seung-hwan Oh (he also seems nearly certain to get a MLB deal, but hasn't yet) -Bruce Rondon -Drew Storen
LHPs: -Kevin Siegrist (lefty Cardinal coming off a bad year, may get MLB deal?)
Maybe some other guys I left off that list sign minor league deals. Maybe some of those guys above get MLB deals. Still, lots of guys who could compete for roster spots still available with only a couple of weeks until spring training.
The Reds probably also want shortstop depth. Four guys are still available were you've got to wonder what their job prospects look like: -Erick Aybar -Stephen Drew -JJ Hardy -Adam Rosales
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Feb 1, 2018 14:31:21 GMT -5
I'd definitely give Siegriest a minor-league deal and wouldn't think twice about a one-year MLB deal for $2M or so. I definitely want to break camp with a couple of southpaws in the bullpen as of now that's Peralta and one of Crockett, Reed, or A Garrett.
The Reds in some ways will enter ST in much better shape than last year:
The rotation is full to bursting -- If healthy, Disco, Flannigan & Bailey are locks - and the field is wide open after that Mahle & Castillo might have the upper hands, but Stephenson seemed to finally turn it around, I haven't yet given up on Amir Garrett or Cody Reed, and Sal Romano had some very bright flashes. I am very glad we don't have to seriously contemplate Bronson Arroyo or Scott Feldman in our rotation -- we have to sink or swim with all the young arms.
Signing Hughes and Henrandez while not flashy has definitely given us a stable core to the bullpen. I'm not sure about whether Lorenzen can truly make it as a high-leverage multi-innings guy, but I want to see if Ariel Hernandez can find the strike zone, if Austin Brice or Zach Weiss are ready to contribute.
The bench doesn't look quite as tenuous as years past (Phil Gosselin not withstanding). Dilson Herrera is out of options so if he can at all hit, he'll be on the bench. Phil Erwin is looking like a capable 4th OFer. Stuart Turner will be at AAA barring injury.
We need to settle on an everyday outfield -- Winker has to be playing every day.
Here's what will determine the success of spring training:
1) Dilson Herrera (or Alex Blandino) manages to play his way into a platoon with Scooter Gennett. 2) Jesse Winker is an everyday starter 3) None of Tyler Mahle, Amir Garrett, Luis Castillo, or Robert Stephenson open the year in the bullpen. Extra credit if this list includes Cody Reed and Sal Romano. 4) We don't open the season with five or more players on the disabled list. 5) Phil Gosselin is not on 25-man roster 6) Some reliever not named Iglesias is pitching just about as well Iglesias 7) Jose Peraza looks sharp 8) Devin Mesoraco doesn't look horrible at the bat and in fact gets in some time at 1B/3B and LF during the spring 9) Nick Senzel starts the year at AAA
BTW, I don't think the reason the Board has been so quiet this offseason is excessive negativiting and much as it has been a rather dull offseason.
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flash
Ted Kluszewski
Posts: 703
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Post by flash on Feb 1, 2018 17:37:59 GMT -5
I think Elizarde has a legitimate chance. The Reds might need an additional left hand bat. I think Winker will play every day. I believe the starting outfield will be Duvall, Schebler, and Winker. Hamilton will be a late inning replacement unless he shows he can hit. Herrera is a bust. Bandino has a shot. He has a high on base percentage. It will probably come down to those two for the final spot.
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Post by crashdavissports on Feb 5, 2018 15:25:35 GMT -5
I think eachof the OF'ers get equal playing time.
Winker can play LF, RF. Duvall plays LF, but could play RF. Schebler can play all 3 OF positions. Hamilton plays CF.
I just think every 4th day a guy sits.
I too would like to see us sign one more guy to the bullpen like a Kevin Siegrist, and have a couple good LH pitchers in the bullpen that are not one trick ponies. Then with a solid bullpen of:
LH Siegrist LH Peralta RH Iglesias RH Hernandez RH Hughes RH Lorenzen
To me, that is a pretty good bullpen.
Then you just pray starting pitchers, especially the vets can stay healthy all year: Bailey, Disco and Finnigan...along with an improving Castillo and finally one of the prospects to make that next leap forward.
Our offense should be pretty good again (I really think our offense is pretty good although we could use a little more clutch hitting from guys not named Votto), along with a ton of bullpen help and a healthy rotation...it is not inconceivable to see the Reds in the playoff hunt come September. Hard to imagine Scooter having the same type of year, so there will be drop off there probably).
I really think we need another reliable bullpen arm on top of the guys we have already attained, and we need our starters to remain healthy and just put up past type numbers and I don't think we are that far off. That requires a lot to go our way of course. However, if the moons align, we could find ourselves in the hunt come September. More than likely be near the .500 mark.
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 5, 2018 15:54:27 GMT -5
Gotta wonder how many more players will get guaranteed MLB deals this offseason, how many have to settle for minor league deals, and how many choose to call it quits when the can't get a MLB deal (Brandon Phillips?). Phillips thinks he's one of the best players in baseball, it would be embarrassing to play in AAA.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2018 16:48:16 GMT -5
I think eachof the OF'ers get equal playing time. Winker can play LF, RF. Duvall plays LF, but could play RF. Schebler can play all 3 OF positions. Hamilton plays CF. I just think every 4th day a guy sits. I too would like to see us sign one more guy to the bullpen like a Kevin Siegrist, and have a couple good LH pitchers in the bullpen that are not one trick ponies. Then with a solid bullpen of: LH Siegrist LH Peralta RH Iglesias RH Hernandez RH Hughes RH Lorenzen To me, that is a pretty good bullpen. Then you just pray starting pitchers, especially the vets can stay healthy all year: Bailey, Disco and Finnigan...along with an improving Castillo and finally one of the prospects to make that next leap forward. Our offense should be pretty good again (I really think our offense is pretty good although we could use a little more clutch hitting from guys not named Votto), along with a ton of bullpen help and a healthy rotation...it is not inconceivable to see the Reds in the playoff hunt come September. Hard to imagine Scooter having the same type of year, so there will be drop off there probably). I really think we need another reliable bullpen arm on top of the guys we have already attained, and we need our starters to remain healthy and just put up past type numbers and I don't think we are that far off. That requires a lot to go our way of course. However, if the moons align, we could find ourselves in the hunt come September. More than likely be near the .500 mark. I still think Finnegan could be that 2nd LHP in the pen. He was a reliever in college. I would like to see Bailey,Disco,Castillo,Stephenson in the rotation. With one of Romano,Reed,Garrett or Mahle filling out the rotation. That gives us 3 fall back on guys in AAA. In case of injury or poor preformance from the big league rotation. I have not heard of any Finnegan to the pen talk at all though. I like you think we have a small shot at competing for a wild card spot. But nearly everything would have to go right so it is a long shot. Anyone care to predict the bench players? Will it be a 4 or a 5 man bench? Lets hope 5 man. If we are at 4 man bench very much that means the pitching is not doing well. So they fell the need to carry a extra arm. Assuming it 5 guys 1. Mesoraco 2. one of Schebler,Duvall, Hamilton or Winker 3. Ervin 4. Herrera if he can throw 5. Someone who can backup SS Hopefully not Phil Gosselin. But I guess he is about as good as any remaining FA SS left out there. One thing for sure the Reds are way overdue to have better health this season. That alone could go a long way toward a .500 or better record.
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Post by crashdavissports on Feb 6, 2018 10:48:31 GMT -5
I think your bench looks good.
1. C Mesoraco 2. OF Winker (hypathetically since he is the youngest even though I think he is going to get equal time with rest) 3. OF Ervin 4. INF Herrera (because he is out of options and was the key piece to the Bruce trade) 5. INF Blandino (I would like to see him earn the spot over Gosslin), plus he can play 2B, 3B, SS
Only position not backed up is 1B by a bench player, but I really think Duvall or Suarez can play 1st if needed.
Those would be the two positions I would have Senzel working on, 3B / 1B.
1) Both corner INF positions so not a whole lot different in terms of fielding. 2) Votto is not going to be around forever and is getting older so injuries could set in more. 3) Senzel will be a cornerstone to the organization they help build around and pay big bucks to eventually. You don't want a fortune tied up in a middle infield spot where those positions are defensive first kind of positions. 4) Don't want to stunt Senzel's current path to the majors by trying a crap ton of different type of positions.
Okay, I strayed off topic a little there, but it does have to relate to Spring Training and where they envision Senzel playing.
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 7, 2018 19:49:34 GMT -5
The Reds should claim SS Matt Reynolds off waivers. The Mets DFA'd him today to make room for old friend Todd Frazier. Reynolds is already 27 and hasn't been much of a hitter in the majors (.228 average, .300 OBP, 74 OPS+ in 226 career MLB plate appearances), but he's fairly well regarded defensively, plays multiple positions, makes the MLB minimum, and has hit fairly well in AAA (.289 average, .348 OBP). Reynolds doesn't hit for much power or steal many bases, but has some basic plate discipline, I'd say. He probably wouldn't do terribly much to impress, but I also think he'd do little to embarrass as a backup shortstop and utility player.
In his pro career Reynolds has played 436 games at SS, 67 at 3b, 56 at 2b, and 23 in LF. I'd be interested in seeing what he could do with a fresh start, a change of scenery, and a move to GABP. With that kinda versatility it doesn't take much hitting to stick around.
The question with any available shortstop is now "Is this guy a better backup shortstop candidate than Phil Gosselin"? In Reynolds' case I think the answer is decisively YES.
Brian Shackelford is the top DFA candidate, followed distantly by Aristides Aquino. Who really expects somebody to claim Shackelford in this free agent crunch, where veterans are now rushing to minor league deals? If Shackelford clears and becomes a free agent, what better opportunity would he continue to have than the Reds? I just doubt he'll be leaving the organization if he's DFA'd.
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Post by cbassxu on Feb 8, 2018 10:04:32 GMT -5
The Reds should claim SS Matt Reynolds off waivers. The Mets DFA'd him today to make room for old friend Todd Frazier. Reynolds is already 27 and hasn't been much of a hitter in the majors (.228 average, .300 OBP, 74 OPS+ in 226 career MLB plate appearances), but he's fairly well regarded defensively, plays multiple positions, makes the MLB minimum, and has hit fairly well in AAA (.289 average, .348 OBP). Reynolds doesn't hit for much power or steal many bases, but has some basic plate discipline, I'd say. He probably wouldn't do terribly much to impress, but I also think he'd do little to embarrass as a backup shortstop and utility player. In his pro career Reynolds has played 436 games at SS, 67 at 3b, 56 at 2b, and 23 in LF. I'd be interested in seeing what he could do with a fresh start, a change of scenery, and a move to GABP. With that kinda versatility it doesn't take much hitting to stick around. The question with any available shortstop is now "Is this guy a better backup shortstop candidate than Phil Gosselin"? In Reynolds' case I think the answer is decisively YES. Brian Shackelford is the top DFA candidate, followed distantly by Aristides Aquino. Who really expects somebody to claim Shackelford in this free agent crunch, where veterans are now rushing to minor league deals? If Shackelford clears and becomes a free agent, what better opportunity would he continue to have than the Reds? I just doubt he'll be leaving the organization if he's DFA'd.The Reds brought back Brian Shackelford!? Agree on claiming Reynolds though given his comparison to Gosselin
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 8, 2018 17:36:32 GMT -5
Kevin, Brian, expendable either way! I totally forgot about the existence of Brian Shackelford, despite all the times I've heard Kevin's name, and I have no idea how I combined the two! Replacing it with something I forgot, or was it random?
Ugh. I thought I was going to mess up a name, but that's Matt Reynolds. Not to be confused with the other Matt Reynolds, the lefty reliever. Or Mark Reynolds. Not newly-acquired Pirates prospect Bryan Reynolds, formerly of the Giants. Maybe that's where I got Brian from???
*shrug*
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Feb 15, 2018 13:12:27 GMT -5
The Reds signed IF Cliff Pennington (last of the Angels) to a minor-league contract, presumably with a ST invite.
Probably a better option than Phil Gosselin...
Also the Reds voided their contract with RHP Jeff Manship who failed his physical.
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Post by yorak on Feb 15, 2018 14:31:31 GMT -5
we'll battle the pirates for last
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 15, 2018 17:04:37 GMT -5
Yeah, Cliff Pennington on a minor league deal. He gets $1.5m if he makes the team, and he seems pretty likely to do so. I thought they'd target the remaining free agent shortstops - him, JJ Hardy, Stephen Drew, and Erick Aybar - and they found one willing to sign. Last year Cliff Pennington was just over replacement level (0.3 WAR), with a 11.1 bWAR for his career. He's a switch hitter who's a little better as a lefty.
Pennington has started 543 MLB games at shortstop, 170 at 2b, and 31 at 3b, so he's used to moving around a bit... although he seems likely to get nearly all his Reds innings at shortstop. Maybe some spot starts at 3b early in the season. If they wanted somebody they could feel more confident about at SS than Suarez, Blandino, and guys like that, they now got one.
Really pushes Phil Gosselin out of the picture, while not really threatening Jose Peraza for playing time. The big relevant question is how Nick Senzel looks at shortstop this spring. Conventional wisdom would suggest he'll never play that position in the majors, but maybe he looks good? Even if he DOES look good at shortstop, I'm sure he'd play the position for weeks or months before regularly trying that role in the majors.
I'd rather they'd been able to claim Matt Reynolds, but whatever, no big deal.
It'll be interesting to know whether they carry 12 or 13 pitchers this year, and how that influences the chances of a lefty specialist like Kyle Crockett. I think they'll go with a typical 12 man pitching staff, which makes them unlikely to carry a LOOGY. One of the really minor questions of this spring.
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