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Post by redsfanman on Mar 17, 2018 16:53:54 GMT -5
LHP Cody Reed made his first start today, and apparently pitched really well. He went 4 innings with 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K, and 2 solo homeruns in his final inning, including one to Buster Posey. By all reports he pitched a lot better than the line indicated.
Kevin Quackenbush struck out the side in a scoreless inning. He's now pitched 7 innings this spring with 5 H, 3 BB, and 10 K. I didn't think he'd make the team, and I still don't, but he's definitely reinforced his case this spring, I think. Ultimately I feel he'll be left off like RHP Louis Coleman last spring.
In the realm of stats that'll bother people, Billy Hamilton's average is up to .133 after his 0-for whatever start to the spring, but his OBP is now up to .297, a point below his career OBP. Although no doubt everybody will remain angry about his bad spring, there's a good chance that he might end it with a better-than-normal OBP even if his spring average ends up below .200. Walks are nice.
Although Brandon Dixon (going into Saturday's game) is having a more noticeable spring (3 HRs! .314 average!), I think Alex Blandino is quietly having a much better spring. Dixon has 2 BB and 8 Ks in 35 ABs, a big cause for concern. His .351 OBP is impressive but, with all those strikeouts, seems unlikely to sustainable. Blandino is hitting .346 with a .393 OBP with 2 BB and 4 Ks over 26 ABs. Obviously he won't maintain an elite ~.390 OBP in the regular season, but he's shown he can be something of an OBP-machine in the minors, and is demonstrating it this spring. I hope Alex Blandino makes the bench as the righthanded platoon option for Scooter Gennett, with added ABs as a backup 3b and SS. While Cliff Pennington also makes the team as a rarely used emergency backup, whose primary job is to sit on the bench while Blandino backs up and pinch hits.
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Post by kycatscinnreds on Mar 18, 2018 23:28:25 GMT -5
Geez fanman doing work. Id have to get paid to think and write this much
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flash
Ted Kluszewski
Posts: 703
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Post by flash on Mar 19, 2018 16:29:38 GMT -5
Here is how I see it shaking out C Barnhart 1B Votto 2b Gennett SS Pedraza 3b Suarez breakout year LF Duvall breakout year, big year CF Schebler breakout year RF Winker
Bench Mesoraco Hamilton Dixon 2b and 5th outfielder Bandino Gosselin
Rotation Bailey Castillo Mahle Garrett Romano
Pen Iglesias Lorenzon Wonder if he can play the outfield. can swing the bat Quckenbush great spring Stephenson Where else will you put him. Finnegan Let's face it he hasn't earned the spot in the rotation Weiss. he did look bad yesterday, but he has earned a shot. Reed Looked good yesterday, but not rotation material at this point Hernandez
Hamilton Still struggling with .275 OBP. He also strikes out more than Dixon. Hasn't stolen a base this spring so he might be slowing down. Has been thrown out twice trying to steal. Ervin strikes out too much also to make the team. Pennington just can't hit.
Peralta can't get anybody out.
Reds will keep Williams in Louisville, Release Revere and maybe Pennington Erwin and Elizarde will be in Louisville.
This may be a very good team.
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Post by crashdavissports on Mar 20, 2018 12:10:15 GMT -5
I would have to think Jared Hughes makes the bullpen.
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Post by crashdavissports on Mar 20, 2018 12:26:27 GMT -5
If I had MY DRUTHERS, I would go with the following:
C Barnhart 1B Votto 2B Gennett SS Peraza 3B Suarez LF Duvall CF Schebler RF Winker
Bench: C Mesoraco, INF Dixon, INF Blandino, CF Hamilton, OF Phillip Ervin
SP Castillo SP Bailey SP Garrett SP Romano SP Mahle
CL Iglesias SU Hernandez RP Hughes RP Quackenbush RP Peralta RP Lorenzen RP Finnegan (while he builds up arm strength)
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Mar 20, 2018 13:33:47 GMT -5
I have no problem with Dixon making the team as a pinch-hitter, but if Blandino is going to be no more than bench hand, I would rather he play everyday in Louisville. Let Pennington or Gosselin make the team as a bench hand.
Since it looks like we're going with a four man outfield rotation, I'd go with Revere over Erwin, again I'd rather Erwin get some amount of playing time, as a fifth outfielder, I don't think he'll get much action.
So I go with a bench of Mesoraco, Dixon, Pennington, & Revere, plus whichever outfielder isn't playing that day.
Rotation of Castillo, Bailey, Garrett, Mahle, Romano.
Bullpen:
Reed - Lefty MR Hughes - Righty MR Lorenzen - Multinning guy Quackenbush - Righty MR Weiss -- Righy MR Peralta - Lefty setup Hernandez - Righty setup Iglesias - Closer
DL - DiSclafini, Flannigan
Weiss and Quackenbush have both earned spots, whether they get them or not depends on if Pryce wants to retains one of Oliver Perez or Vance Worley because he likes veterans...
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Post by yorak on Mar 20, 2018 17:08:51 GMT -5
need a slingshot sidearmer in the pen like a kent tekulve
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Mar 20, 2018 22:54:43 GMT -5
Looks like Lorenzen is headed to DL.
His spot likely goes to Austin Brice or perhaps a waiver claim.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 21, 2018 18:35:17 GMT -5
Today I want to look at one of the more interesting questions remaining in camp, Alex Blandino vs Brandon Dixon. I think ONE should make the team, another spot should go to a CF (Ben Revere or Phil Ervin), and the other spot should go to SS Cliff Pennington. Phil Gosselin, despite his misleading 2017 numbers (.194 BABIP) after solid years in Arizona shouldn't get a shot, as he's just not a fit... whatever criteria they choose there's a better candidate.
Alex Blandino, 25, has spent 4 years in the Reds system, playing 180 games at shortstop (85 starts), 172 at second base (131 starts), and 74 games at third base (59 starts). He has an advanced approach at the plate, putting up a .361 OBP in his minor league career. That includes a .348 OBP in 205 games in AA, and a .390 OBP in his 63 games in Louisville. From what I've read he's solid at 2b and 3b, but very questionable/bad at shortstop. In 2017 he hit a career high 12 homeruns with 64 BBs and 86 Ks through 473 plate appearances between AA and AAA. He hit pretty comparably well against both LHPs and RHPs, for whatever that's worth. His slugging percentage was about a 100 points higher against LHPs, for a .926 OPS against them in 112 PAs (just relevant because that's the role he'd fill with Scooter Gennett). If given the job I think he'll give professional ABs (against both LHPs and RHPs), an impressive OBP, and occasional power that'll probably play up at GABP due to his good approach and discipline. The obvious Reds player comparison I'd make based on his general approach is Jesse Winker.
Brandon Dixon, 26, was a 2013 3rd round pick acquired by the Reds after the 2015 season. I'll choose to ignore his earlier numbers to be nice, because I think he can/did improve. In 2016 he spent the full year in AA Pensacola, hitting .260 with a .315 OBP with 16 HRs in 461 PAs. He drew 30 BBs and struck out 137 times. After that season he had a pretty successful trip to the Arizona Fall League. In 2017 he was promoted to AAA Louisville, where he hit .264 with a .327 OBP. 16 homeruns again, this time in 491 PAs with 37 walks and 125 strikeouts. In 2017 Dixon hit .244 with a .298 OBP, .414 slugging percentage, and .712 OPS in 370 PAs against RHPs, which is pretty ugly. He REALLY hammered LHPs, though... hitting .327 with a .413 OBP, .596 slugging percentage, and whopping 1.009 OPS in 121 PAs. I didn't realize until this instance that he was such a drastic platoon hitter, but he absolutely is, every bit as much as Scooter Gennett. He's hit 16 homeruns two years in a row, and I think it's safe to call power his calling card (he also hit 19 homeruns back in 2015). But, he doesn't walk that much, and strikes out a lot. He's really the epitome of a all-or-nothing power hitting platoon bat, in my opinion. But that has some value from a guy with experience at every position on the field but shortstop, catcher, and pitcher. He's played 139 innings in RF, 230 innings in LF, 250 innings at 1b, 318 in CF, 1376 innings at 3b, and 2644 innings at 2b, so he's not new to any of them, although I'm not under the impression he's a good defender at any of them. Anyway, the Reds comparisons I'd make to Brandon Dixon are Patrick Kivlehan (who probably walks a little more) and Adam Duvall. Is he the next Adam Duvall, defying the odds, as a low-OBP strikeout prone power guy?
I think the 2018 Reds have room to carry ONE of them, and give him a bunch of playing time in a super-sub role (remember how Scooter Gennett started 2017?) starting at 2b against LHPs. Dixon could back up at 3b, 1b, LF, and RF... while Blandino could back up at 3b and SS. Plenty of ABs for one of them (and few for SS Cliff Pennington), but not enough for both. I don't think it's any no-brainer choice with one guy being right and other being wrong. Blandino will get on base more (against all pitchers, not just LHPs), give more professional ABs, and should play better defense, with some pop. Dixon might hit homeruns and mash LHPs, but with that you have to accept crummy defense, high strikeout rates, and total ineptitude vs RHPs. If used correctly I think either could do fine.
To me it seems like I've long heard people advocating for more OBP-centric players and well rounded hitters like Votto, Winker, Senzel... and Blandino (and Ervin?). And for fewer homerun or strikeout guys. It feels like I often hear calls for the team and its hitters to limit strikeouts, take more professional ABs. Personally I think guys can be successful either way (it's worked for Duvall?), but that stuff is a clear argument in favor of Blandino. I think Brandon Dixon could do fine in a specific role - platoon bat vs LHPs - but it's important to acknowledge, I think, that that will come with lots of strikeouts. That aspect of Dixon's game isn't changing that much, and despite a remarkable spring, his 2 BB and 8 Ks in 38 ABs aren't terribly impressive (Blandino has 3 BB, 4 K).
Blandino, of course, also has the benefit of being on the 40 man roster. What's the choice? OBP-centric guy or strikeout prone power platoon bat? Is there a right answer? Which one should the Reds make a super sub? If the Billy Hamilton argument that OBP is the most important offensive stat, should that hold true in his competition, of a guy with a good approach vs a guy with good power?
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 21, 2018 18:49:09 GMT -5
A few responses:
-RHP Jared Hughes DEFINITELY makes the team. -LHP Brandon Finnegan, I doubt he'll be sent to the bullpen to "build up arm strength". If they want him to build up arm strength to start they'll send him on a minor league rehab assignment, not to the bullpen. -These guys who have been around for years are named Phil ERVIN (not Erwin) and Jose PERAZA (not Pedraza). Honest question, is that like an autocorrect error? I mean, I have my phone set to turn 'Disco' into DeSclafani, and programmed several other easily mispelled names in (Schebler, Suarez, and so on). -"Quckenbush great spring" - Quackenbush also has a long track record of not being terribly impressive at Petco Park. He's a fly ball pitcher who's looking for a job at Great American Ballpark, who's had success in a small sample this spring. Whether that's enough to earn him a job is debatable. I don't see a lot of difference between Quackenbush winning a spot with a hot spring than the unpopular veteran relievers who've come before him, whose names I won't mention. I think he'll go the way of Louis Coleman, who failed to crack the roster last spring. -"Stephenson Where else will you put him." (if not the bullpen) - AAA Louisville's rotation, where he'll pitch every 5th day competing for a rotation opening. -"Reed Looked good yesterday, but not rotation material at this point" - Uhhhh, yeah. Looking good is a reason he should head to AAA Louisville and work out of their rotation. He's still young, seems to have fixed his problems from last year. -"Hamilton Still struggling with .275 OBP. He also strikes out more than Dixon. Hasn't stolen a base this spring so he might be slowing down. Has been thrown out twice trying to steal." - Hamilton has struck out more this spring than Dixon, but has also walked a lot more. No question, Dixon has had a better spring than Hamilton, but both players have long track records that make it clear that Brandon Dixon will strike out FAR more often than Billy Hamilton. If you're arguing that Billy Hamilton is "slowing down" I think you're really reaching for criticisms.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 21, 2018 18:50:03 GMT -5
Geez fanman doing work. Id have to get paid to think and write this much Sometimes I've got things I want to get off my chest, you know? Don't you think about baseball and look up numbers relevant to what's on your mind? Are you suggesting that isn't normal???
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Post by crashdavissports on Mar 22, 2018 9:17:19 GMT -5
A few responses: -RHP Jared Hughes DEFINITELY makes the team. -LHP Brandon Finnegan, I doubt he'll be sent to the bullpen to "build up arm strength". If they want him to build up arm strength to start they'll send him on a minor league rehab assignment, not to the bullpen. -These guys who have been around for years are named Phil ERVIN (not Erwin) and Jose PERAZA (not Pedraza). Honest question, is that like an autocorrect error? I mean, I have my phone set to turn 'Disco' into DeSclafani, and programmed several other easily mispelled names in (Schebler, Suarez, and so on). -"Quckenbush great spring" - Quackenbush also has a long track record of not being terribly impressive at Petco Park. He's a fly ball pitcher who's looking for a job at Great American Ballpark, who's had success in a small sample this spring. Whether that's enough to earn him a job is debatable. I don't see a lot of difference between Quackenbush winning a spot with a hot spring than the unpopular veteran relievers who've come before him, whose names I won't mention. I think he'll go the way of Louis Coleman, who failed to crack the roster last spring. -"Stephenson Where else will you put him." (if not the bullpen) - AAA Louisville's rotation, where he'll pitch every 5th day competing for a rotation opening. -"Reed Looked good yesterday, but not rotation material at this point" - Uhhhh, yeah. Looking good is a reason he should head to AAA Louisville and work out of their rotation. He's still young, seems to have fixed his problems from last year. -"Hamilton Still struggling with .275 OBP. He also strikes out more than Dixon. Hasn't stolen a base this spring so he might be slowing down. Has been thrown out twice trying to steal." - Hamilton has struck out more this spring than Dixon, but has also walked a lot more. No question, Dixon has had a better spring than Hamilton, but both players have long track records that make it clear that Brandon Dixon will strike out FAR more often than Billy Hamilton. If you're arguing that Billy Hamilton is "slowing down" I think you're really reaching for criticisms. Regarding the Finnegan response, this was "MY DRUTHERS", not what I expected the Reds to do. Also, I would use Hamilton strictly as a backup at this point, late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner. Hamilton is struggling so much, I have no interest in his bat being in the lineup. SS Peraza (S) RF Winker (L) 1B Votto (L) 3B Suarez (R) LF Duvall (R) 2B Gennett (R) CF Schebler (L) C Barnhart (L)
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 22, 2018 18:42:34 GMT -5
Another round of cuts today: -RHP Robert Stephenson - He'll be in AAA Louisville's rotation, no surprise, didn't have a great spring. -RHP Jackson Stephens - Didn't have a good spring. -RHP Tanner Rainey - Seems to have made an impression, it'll be interesting to see if he starts out in AA (where he finished 2017) or AAA
-CF Ben Revere - Reassigned to minor league camp, expected to opt out and pursue other opportunities. -CF Mason Williams - Reassigned to minor league camp, stuck around longer than I expected. -OF Rosell Herrera - Reassigned to minor league camp, also stuck around longer than I expected. -C Joe Hudson - Reassigned to minor league camp, no surprise. -LHP Oliver Perez - Released.
Unless I missed something that leaves the following fringe-ish guys in camp:
Bench (Choose 3, assuming a normal 5 man bench) OF Phil Ervin - 40 man roster member, Ben Revere getting cut makes it seem more likely that he'll make the team. SS Cliff Pennington - Non-roster invitee, has to be told if he made the team by Saturday. I assume he will. If not he'd probably have been told today, as Revere and Perez were in the same situation. INF Phil Gosselin - NRI still in camp on minor league deal, but they don't have to decide before they finally set the opening day roster. INF Alex Blandino - 40 man roster member and OBP-centric utility player. INF/OF Brandon Dixon - NRI and platoon power bat. 1b Kenny Vargas - Newly claimed, I suspect they'll try to outright him to AAA in the coming days, as there's little use on the team for a platoon bat (switch hitter who can only hit well from one side of the plate) who only plays one position at which he's totally blocked. 1b/OF Sebastian Elizalde - NRI, I think he's still in big league camp, although I'd heavily bet against him winning a spot. C Tony Cruz - NRI, the last extra catcher in big league camp. Not a reflection of chance of making the team, as Stuart Turner is likely ahead of him on any depth chart.
Rotation (Choose 1, assuming they even go with 5 starters on opening day) LHP Brandon Finnegan - Throwing, but whether he starts season on 10 day DL or not is unclear. Might benefit from a rehab assignment? LHP Amir Garrett - Maybe in the rotation, maybe in the bullpen, maybe in AAA.
Bullpen (Choose 3, assuming a typical 7 man bullpen) LHP Cody Reed - Maybe in MLB bullpen, maybe in AAA rotation. RHP Kevin Shackelford - 40 man roster. 14 strikeouts in 8.1 IPs this spring. RHP Austin Brice - 40 man roster. Not great numbers this spring. RHP Zack Weiss - 40 man roster. Outlasted Herget and Rainey, although his roster spot may have helped. RHP Kevin Quackenbush - NRI. Even with Lorenzen's trip to the DL I'm opposed to Quackenbush making the team. RHP Vance Worley - NRI. I'm surprised he's still around. I would've released him with Ben Revere and Oliver Perez.
??RHP Barrett Astin - I think he was cut, but can't find any record of it. ??RHP Ariel Hernandez - On the topic of uncertainty, there are conflicting reports of whether he cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40 man roster, opening a roster spot, or not. The website says he was, but a team official reportedly told CTrent that he wasn't. So after today's Kenny Vargas claim there seem to be conflicting opinions of whether the Reds have 39 or 40 on the 40 man roster, depending on the status of Ariel Hernandez.
I think Pennington, Ervin, and Blandino make the bench. Blandino vs Dixon is the toughest call, but I discussed it in detail in a post above.
I think Shackelford will make the bullpen, but beyond that, who knows? Cody Reed very well might. Quackenbush might, although I'd expect him to quickly become extremely unpopular and to be released after a few months. Brice and Weiss could without surprising me. I'd be most surprised by Vance Worley making it, even as a long man.
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Post by kycatscinnreds on Mar 25, 2018 9:56:34 GMT -5
Geez fanman doing work. Id have to get paid to think and write this much Sometimes I've got things I want to get off my chest, you know? Don't you think about baseball and look up numbers relevant to what's on your mind? Are you suggesting that isn't normal??? Yes my research is extensive. Looking at scores and standings.I am more of a book with pictures and huge text kinda guy.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Mar 26, 2018 10:23:04 GMT -5
Looks like Lorenzen, Disco, & Shackelford will start the season on the DL.
The bench is set with Erwin, Meso, Gosselin, Pennington, and whichever outfielder isn't starting.
4/5 of the rotation is set with Bailey, Castillo, Mahle, Romano, and either Finnegan or Garrett.
With Iglesias, Hughes, Peralta, Quackenbush, & Hernandez locks, the remaining decisions are related to the bullpen:
So that leaves two bullpen spots Recently claimed southpaw Justin Nicolino is likely in the mix somewhere, depending on Finnegan/Garrett. Worley seems to still be in contention like a bad dream. Austin Brice is still in contention. Zach Weiss deserves a spot, but I don't know if he'll get it.
With Nicolino's claiming, the Reds have one open or two spot on the 40-man roster.
They need two or three 40-man spots if they opt to go with Worley. Unless of course, one of Disco, Lorenzen, or Shackelford can go on the 60-man DL.
So who gets to pass through waivers?
My guess is Keury Meulla, Ariel Hernandez (if he hasn't already -- there seem to be contradictory information there), and the last one is painful -- especially if it is to retain Vance Worley, Jackson Stephens.
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