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Post by redsfanman on Mar 8, 2018 21:34:55 GMT -5
Ben Revere, I'm not sure why he's so highly regarded. I mean, I do know... because he was okay back in 2015, and pretty good before that, before he reached the age Billy Hamilton is now.
Ben Revere bWAR: fWAR 2014: 0.7 2.2 2015: 2.6 1.9 2016: -1.2 -1.2 2017: 0.2 0.0 Career: 6.2 7.8 Career OBP: .319
-He's put up negative defensive value, according to Fangraphs, in 4 of the past 5 years... only 2016 was decent. -He's put up OBPs of .260 and .308 in the past two years.
Billy Hamilton bWAR: fWAR 2014: 2.5 3.7 2015: 1.0 2.0 2016: 2.8 3.1 2017: 1.0 1.2 Career: 8.0 10.6 Career OBP: .298
To me this almost seems like a bad joke, or perhaps a return to the pre-Moneyball era, where we're fed up with one guy and willing to blindly accept somebody who's worse. Somebody who's older, but has some name recognition. Somebody who has the same problems (doesn't get on base enough, coming off a bad year). Somebody who's regarded as a strong defender, although only only one of the two has in any way justified that over the past several years (Hamilton).
I feel like I'm back in 2014 or 2015, with people arguing that the Reds need to trade their top prospects to acquire a shortstop to replace worthless Zack Cozart, and usually identifying trade candidates who were worse, comparable, or at best so insignificantly better than Cozart to not justify the cost. The argument was the exact same, that we've seen enough of this guy and should give up, that we'd rather accept worse production and value just for a change.
The defensive metrics are really down on Ben Revere, and it has nothing to do with "theatrics". He's slowed down, from all reports I've read. I read somewhere that Statcast data suggested he's a slower runner than underappreciated (as far as speed) Scott Schebler (who was supposedly the fastest RF in the NL in 2017), at this point.
My point isn't that Billy Hamilton is great, but all indications, in my opinion, suggest that Billy Hamilton is without question better than Ben Revere (frankly I was surprised to find that Hamilton has put up a higher career WAR despite his career being shorter), both for his career... and certainly NOW. That's why Ben Revere is competing for a 5th outfield spot on a non-roster contract, and why Billy Hamilton is a starting OF.
I think the opening day starting CF will be one of two guys - Billy Hamilton or Scott Schebler. Third most likely guy is Phil Ervin, who I speculate would field better and offer more offensive value than 2018 Ben Revere, although there isn't the solid and clear data to justify that like there is for the Hamilton>Revere point.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 8, 2018 21:42:07 GMT -5
I think, as I said before, all 4 OFs will start 3/4 (75%) of games, but who finishes with the most PAs will depend on who goes on the DL. Billy Hamilton is likely to lose out as he's the most injury prone. I don't think Duvall has been on the DL at all, while I don't consider Schebler or Winker particularly injury prone, although they've had fluke injuries in the past.
I think Duvall is a good bet for the most PAs, from his 2+ year track record of not getting hurt. I think fewer games will also help him to keep from wearing down, which may perhaps further help him to avoid injuries. But, I wouldn't be surprised by any of the three nominal corner outfielders leading the group in PAs. Schebler has a case because he plays CF, Winker has a case because he's the best hitter. Duvall has a case because he's stayed healthy.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 8, 2018 22:03:22 GMT -5
I like the Ben Revere signing, but he is what he is, a light hitting 5th outfielder best suited for an OF corner who's reportedly lost his best and most important skill - speed - in recent years. I don't know if it's too far to call him a shell of his former self. At this point he's riding more on name recognition than data, in my opinion. Like Desmond Jennings last year, I'm skeptical he'll make the team at all.
In 2018 (and 2016, 2017) Billy Hamilton>Ben Revere, no question about it, for reasons listed above.
Mason Williams, on the other hand, was also a good signing, as AAA depth. But, despite a respectable spring, he's an extreme long shot to make the Reds. As a presumably replacement-level player he definitely isn't a threat to steal playing time from better-than-replacement level Billy Hamilton. 2016: AAA - .296 average, .313 OBP, 0 HR, 1 SB in 138 PAs 2017: AAA - .263 average, .309 OBP, 2 HR, 19 SB in 437 PAs Career at AAA - .278 average, .320 OBP, 2 HR, 22 SB in 666 PAs, roughly a full season.
Phil Ervin is a year younger than Mason Williams, just put up a .328 OBP in his first year in AAA, has more power, steals more bases... and is on the 40 man roster. In a meaningless small sample size of MLB games Ervin and Williams hit pretty similarly. I don't know much about how Mason Williams is regarded defensively, but unless Williams is way at the elite end of the spectrum (and if we care about elite defense why are we pushing out Billy???) I'm not sure how anyone could seriously prefer him over Phil Ervin.
While Ben Revere is worse than Billy Hamilton, Mason Williams is comparable to or worse than Phil Ervin. And Phil Ervin both has the benefit of a roster spot and the commitment of a team seeking to give him every opportunity to justify his draft selection. While I would be extremely surprised to see Ben Revere ever win the starting OF job from Billy Hamilton (since all data suggests that's stupid), I think Mason Williams' chances of making the team are equally unlikely. Mason Williams has had a solid spring so far but he hasn't even pushed himself into a serious consideration for the 5th OF spot, let alone made a case to jump over 2 guys ahead of him.
At best there are tiers: Hamilton>Revere Ervin>Williams
Whether fading veteran Revere is 'better' than unproven Ervin is a more complex discussion, I think. But Hamilton, Revere, and Ervin are all better options than Williams.
The notion that Revere, let alone Mason Williams, are better than Billy Hamilton, I don't know what else to say. In the nicest way possible, I think that's total nonsense. An emotional gut feeling not backed up by any sorta logic, data, anything.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 8, 2018 23:43:44 GMT -5
Basically I wanted to look up data, and did, and wrote it up as I found it: I found some Statcast data from 2017, for the Sprint Speed metric, for some current and former Reds: baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=&team=&min=50Billy Hamilton: 30.1 Phil Ervin: 28.8 Scott Schebler: 28.4Ben Revere: 28.2Jose Peraza: 28.2 Patrick Kivlehan: 27.4 Adam Duvall: 27.0 MLB AVERAGE: 27.0Jesse Winker: 26.8 Eugenio Suarez: 26.7 Scooter Gennett: 26.7 Brandon Phillips: 26.7 Joey Votto: 25.6 -Schebler finished 2017 as the 3th fastest RF in MLB with 50+ opportunities, after Hunter Pence (28.5) and Aaron Altherr (28.4). -Billy Hamilton (30.1) finished 2017 just behind Byron Buxton (30.2), and ahead of new CF Dee Gordon (29.7) and LF Delano DeShields (29.6) Some of the slower CFs in 2017 by Sprint Speed included: Curtis Granderson: 26.6 Jon Jay: 26.6 Joc Pederson: 26.9 Adam Jones: 27.1 Jackie Bradley Jr: 27.3 Odubel Herrera: 27.5 Ender Inciarte: 27.5 Albert Almora Jr: 27.7 George Springer: 27.8 Denard Span: 27.9 Carlos Gomez: 28.1 Yeah yeah, routes, arm, instincts, all sorts of factors go into being a big league CF. But I think it's interesting to note that Scott Schebler is a faster runner than many well known CFs. When I've seen Schebler I've noticed an outfielder who blunders routine plays rather one than being limited by range. But I think his speed is an important thing to consider in the CF discussion. Schebler was at 28.4 in 2017, but even higher - 28.8 - in 2016. Peraza was at 28.2 in 2017, but 28.6 in 2016. Ben Revere was at 28.2 in 2017, 28.6 in 2016, 28.7 in 2015. I guess I was a little harsh on Ben Revere. His speed has dropped a bit (28.7 to 28.2 in the past 3 years), but remains well above league average. But Schebler has been a faster runner two years in a row now. I think that's a relevant point when discussing Ben Revere's future in CF, and Scott Schebler's supposed inability to play there. The way I see it either they both have the speed or neither of them do. If Revere is fast and has good range, so does Schebler. But, I think it's relevant that Ben Revere is NO Billy Hamilton, even if he once was. At this point Ben Revere is not Phil Ervin. Ben Revere is not even Scott Schebler. According to Statcast sprint speed Ben Revere is between Schebler and Jose Peraza. The Statcast data also offers 'Outs Above Average', which Byron Buxton leads by a bunch with 25 in 2017. Ender Inciarte was second, despite his sprint speed being worse than Schebler's. Billy Hamilton was 9th, with 10 OAAs. Duvall was 12th, with 9. Schebler was 47th, with 2 Outs Above Average, so just above league average. 207 OFs had at least 25 opportunities, the worst being Melky Cabrera (-12), Denard Span (-12), and by far the leader... Matt Kemp (-17). Ben Revere was at 1 OAA. To my surprise Scott Schebler made a larger percentage of routine plays (76%+ of the time converted) than Adam Duvall. I think of Schebler's problem as routine balls bouncing of his glove or being bobbled. Schebler made 97.0% of the easiest players, missing only one, while Duvall missed 3 of those for only 92.7%. But Adam Duvall retired a higher percentage of each category not recorded 76%+ of the time. Billy Hamilton had 3 "5 star plays" (made 25% of the time or less), while Duvall made 5. So Schebler is faster than Duvall but makes fewer truly difficult plays. Hamilton is waaaaay faster than either and made fewer truly difficult plays than Duvall. I'm not sure if that metric incorporates Duvall throwing runners out or what. In conclusion, I had fun looking at Statcast data, but I don't think it really supports the idea that Ben Revere, at this point, is any better of an option to play CF than Scott Schebler. Maybe you think Schebler should play CF, maybe you think he shouldn't. But for the sake of consistency I think a similar opinion should definitely apply to Ben Revere. Personally I think both can cover CF and play there occasionally without a lot of trouble, but I'd definitely rather see Schebler in CF and Winker in RF than see one on the bench over some outdated notion of Ben Revere being a strong defensive option. Maybe Revere was a good defensive outfielder... he's not really anymore, though.
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Post by schellis on Mar 10, 2018 15:39:39 GMT -5
Can't predict injuries. At the time of the signing both of those contracts were fine, even under value. Bailey was improving every year prior to his injuries, Mesoraco's contract really was just the Reds trying to structure the contract to avoid arbitration raises. If healthy Mesoraco likely blows past that value going year to year. They hurt now because the players got hurt, doesn't make them bad contracts just unlucky ones. Now if they signed them and really stunk for no reason sure they'd be bad. Fair point. I just dont think he is that good and hopefully wont be our #1. If thats the case it will be another long year. Honestly if you are a top 3 starter you are likely getting the same number of starts and with each teams schedule it isn't like ace pitches against ace every time they go out. So really number 1, number 3 all the same
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Post by yorak on Mar 12, 2018 15:00:08 GMT -5
disco hurt again?
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Mar 13, 2018 8:08:59 GMT -5
The first round of cuts happened on Friday with five being optioned off the 25-man roster and Ariel Hernandez being assigned outright:
To Lousiville: RF Aristedes Aquino
To Pensacola: RHP Ariel Hernandez
To Dayton: 2B Shed Long CF Jose Siri RHP Keury Mella RHP Jesus Reyes
That takes the 40-man roster down to 38, the 25-man roster is currently at 34, and we have 25 players up as NRI.
The only minor surprise is that Ariel Hernandez was dropped so early in the competition and appears to have cleared waivers as well -- I'd have thought somebody might be willing to risk claiming him. OTOH, he's been pretty wild so far.
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Post by cbassxu on Mar 13, 2018 13:13:58 GMT -5
In a bit of a surprising move, Dilson Herrera was outrighted off the 40-man and actually cleared Waivers.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Mar 13, 2018 13:18:50 GMT -5
Not all that suprising, since Herrera has been pretty awful this spring.
The 40-man is down to 37 now.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Mar 13, 2018 13:54:17 GMT -5
Players that have impressed me this spring: Brandon Dixon -- yeah, playing way over his head, but giving him a bench spot over say Kivelhan or Gosselin isn't entirely out of the question. Zach Weiss -- showing great stuff and poise on the mound so far -- most likely he starts in Louisville, but he seems a better alternative to me than Shackelford. Amir Garrett -- with Disco and Flannigan doubtful, he's pitched his way into the rotation and possibly back into top prospect form Austin Brice -- should be in the bullpen opening day. Scott Schebler & Jesse Winker -- should both be playing every day. Tukcer Barnhart & Devin Mesoraco -- Is the Devin of old back? If he is, does he have the legs to play 100 games behind the dish -- of course Tucker Barnhart has had a fine spring too. It would be nice if Mesoraco could build enough trade value that the Reds could spin him off for something... Anyone else think Barnhart might be a really good batter in the two-hole Eugenio Suarez -- seems to get better every year -- any chance of signing him to an extension? And where would he play with Senzel a few months away...
Honorable mentions: Kevin Quackenbush -- a grizzled veteran than could take the Blake Wood blow-out role if there wasn't already enough competition there Alex Blandino -- won't start the year with Reds, but is definitely going to be have to taken seriously in the future infield mix
Not impressed with: Phil Gosselin & Cliff Pennington -- it turns my stomach that one of these lightweights will most likely break camp with the team. Move over Juan Castro. BTK -- well he didn't go oh for the spring at last, but he should be a bench player so that the much better Schebler/Winker pair can play everyday. We should have moved him for whatever the Giants were offering... Jose Peraza -- has done nothing to convince me he will ever be more than a utility player Mike Lorenzen -- the Reds seriously need to decide what to do with Mike -- if he's going to be a starter, then move him to Louisville and stretch him out, if not he needs to concentrate on being more dominating. Maybe a move back to the outfield is order? (J/K) Vance Worley & Oliver Perez -- should both be let go -- there's enough talent around Patrick Kivlehan -- has played his way off the team Jackson Stephens -- he should probably converted to a reliever, there are way too many ahead of him on the starting chart at this point Homer Bailey -- It looks like Bailey may be done. At this point I'd rather the Reds used Tyler Mahle in his spot, but that's not going to happen...
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 13, 2018 17:02:47 GMT -5
Yeah, the Dilson Herrera move was both surprising and not. A procedural move timed perfectly, if nothing more. They think he'll be throwing again soon, presumably he'll be playing everyday in AAA Louisville. Questions about his shoulder of course remain - heck, that's why he cleared waivers - but playing regularly is probably a better path to winning a future job than a season relegated to the bench.
I knew Ariel Hernandez was cut from camp, but I didn't realize he had cleared waivers in the process. Ha. But, I guess he did!
So, I want to update my predictions:
Lineup all still obvious:
C Barnhart/Mesoraco 1b Votto 2b Gennett 3b Suarez SS Peraza LF/RF Winker LF Duvall RF/CF Schebler CF Hamilton
3 Bench spots (last two spots seem like tossups): INF Cliff Pennington - I think he definitely makes it as a backup shortstop. INF Alex Blandino - Perhaps a long shot, but I think he's best suited to face LHPs at 2b. OF Phil Ervin - Best candidate for 5th OF,
Still in competition: -1b/2b/3b/OF Brandon Dixon - Good spring, plays (poorly) at many positions, lots of power and strikeouts. -1b/3b/LF/RF Patrick Kivlehan - Like Dixon, but doesn't play 2b, older, more experienced, and having a rough spring. -INF Phil Gosselin - I don't know why he'd be selected, seems repetitive with Pennington. -OF Ben Revere - These days his advantages aren't in talent but veteran experience, ability to nominally play CF, and that he doesn't need playing time. Costs $600-900k more than other options?
Some might call them candidates but I don't believe they actually are: -1b/OF Sebastian Elizalde -OF Mason Williams -OF Rosell Herrera -INF/OF Darnell Sweeney -SS/3b Nick Senzel
5 Man Rotation: RHP Homer Bailey - Opening day starter as the guy who won't get scared or intimidated by the big platform. RHP Luis Castillo - Lock, but won't be chosen for opening day starter because they don't want to add the extra pressure. RHP Sal Romano - I think he's basically won an open rotation spot already. LHP Brandon Finnegan - A little delayed, but expected to be ready, I don't think he's lot his spot yet, even with his recent scare. RHP Anthony DeSclafani - Starting the season on the DL, will ramp up throwing at some point and hopefully avoid aggravating the injury like he did in 2016. But, no question, unless something else comes up he'll be back, probably in a month or two.
Candidates for remaining rotation spot: RHP Robert Stephenson - I think the Reds would like him to win this spot, and despite a rough spring debut his last outing was strong. RHP Tyler Mahle - I think DeSclafani's injury creates the perfect opportunity for them to start Mahle and justify demoting him for service time when DeSclafani inevitably returns. LHP Amir Garrett - He has yet to start a game and they didn't seem to try to stretch him out in his last outing, but he's also 4th in official IPs this spring, behind 3 starters. They haven't really commented on his status. He's pitched well, though.
Starters who I don't think are actually, in practice, serious candidates: RHP Michael Lorenzen - I think he's headed back to the bullpen.
Bullpen (7 man), the hardest role of all to predict: RHP Raisel Iglesias RHP David Hernandez RHP Jared Hughes RHP Michael Lorenzen - When he's cut from bullpen competition. LHP Wandy Peralta - He's been REALLY terrible this spring. RHP Austin Brice - I think they want him to earn it, and so far so good. RHP Kevin Shackelford - He's struck out 9 in 5 IPs. Again I think they want him to earn a spot, and so far so good.
Other bullpen candidates: LHP Kyle Crockett - He's been alright, nothing special, but he's the best performing lefty specialist candidate. RHP Kevin Quackenbush - I consider him a real long shot, but he's pitched alright. LHP Amir Garrett - It's unclear what their plan is with him, if he starts or relieves. LHP Cody Reed - He's pitched really well in 4 games after struggling in his first outing. RHP Zack Weiss - I assume they'll want him to get more experience in AAA before his debut, but who knows? RHP Jimmy Herget - Solid but unremarkable spring, I also think they'll want to start him out in AAA again.
People who have already blown any chance they might have had: RHP Ariel Hernandez (DFA'd) LHP Oliver Perez - I liked the signing as a veteran LOOGY, but boy has he stunk. Heading towards his release. RHP Vance Worley - I never thought he'd make the team, but his performance has made the decision to release him an easy one. RHP Jackson Stephens - Heading back to the minors.
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Post by breakerslim on Mar 14, 2018 18:16:57 GMT -5
jfc some of these dudes are fragilay. gonna battle the pirates for last. excitement is imminent.
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Post by kycatscinnreds on Mar 15, 2018 4:35:43 GMT -5
Fair point. I just dont think he is that good and hopefully wont be our #1. If thats the case it will be another long year. Honestly if you are a top 3 starter you are likely getting the same number of starts and with each teams schedule it isn't like ace pitches against ace every time they go out. So really number 1, number 3 all the same I just meant if Bailey is our theoretical #1 best starter we are in trouble
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 15, 2018 18:04:09 GMT -5
Opening Day Starter and Best Starter are often not synonymous.
I think Homer Bailey should be the opening day starter. He won't be the best starter, but he's the one least likely to get nervous or scared by the hype of 40,000+ cheering or booing his every action like it's a World Series game. Maybe it'll bug Luis Castillo, maybe it won't, but why risk it? There's no harm or shame in letting Castillo start the lower pressure opening night. The Reds should order the rotation to position each player to give his best performance, not to excite the fans with the most exciting option.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 17, 2018 15:42:09 GMT -5
In the past couple of days some interesting-ish moves:
1b/3b Eric Jagielo - Sold to the Marlins for an undisclosed amount of cash. Jagielo was part of the Aroldis Chapman trade, but has been terrible since coming over. After hitting .284 with a .347 OBP in AA in 2015 for the Yankees, he hit .205 with a .305 OBP in AA for the Reds the next year. He hit .161 in 118 ABs for AAA Louisville in 2018. He's about to turn 26, and was the #26 overall pick in 2013. He was picked by the Yankees right after Christian Arroyo and right before Phil Ervin. Aaron Judge, Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, and Corey Knebel were among the names drafted after him in the first round that year.
I expect that move opens up the 1b job in AAA Louisville for DJ Peterson, the #12 pick by the Mariners in that same 2013 draft class. Maybe playing time at 1b also goes to Patrick Kivlehan, Brandon Dixon, and/or Sebastian Elizalde.
CIF/OF Patrick Kivlehan was cut. I didn't expect him to make the team, but I also expected him to be one of the final cuts. After Dilson Herrera and Ariel Hernandez, he's just the third cut who I think had at least a mildly realistic chance of making the team at the start of camp. It looks like the final OF spot will come down to Phil Ervin and Ben Revere. Kivlehan offered more power than either and the ability to play some 1b/3b, but I guess they decided that wasn't a concern. Rosell Herrera, Mason Williams, and Sebastian Elizalde all remain in big league camp. I guess that's the real surprise, I expected Kivlehan to be cut after those guys, not before.
C Stuart Turner was optioned to AAA and reassigned to minor league camp. I kinda expected the third catcher on the roster to stick around until the last round of cuts, but I guess they wanted him starting AAA spring training games. Veteran non-roster invitee Tony Cruz and no-hit defensive specialist Joe Hudson remain in big league camp, I believe. Stuart Turner gets his first real chance at AAA (aside from rehab assignments), good luck to him. A good performance will probably be the difference between sticking on the 40 man roster and getting cut. Veteran Tony Cruz is a terrible hitter, but also a significant threat for Stuart Turner's job as third catcher, as a long time protoge/backup of Yadier Molina.
LHP Kyle Crockett was sent to minor league camp. I didn't expect him to make the team, but I know some did. I'm just a little surprised he didn't stick around a little longer. 4 BB and 4 Ks in 6.1 IP isn't what they were looking for, I guess. Veteran LHP Oliver Perez remains in camp. I think he got off to a late camp this spring, maybe that explains a bit of why he's been shelled so badly. Of course lefties Cody Reed, Amir Garrett, and Brandon Finnegan remain in camp?
RHP Jimmy Herget was also sent out. He walked 4 in 4.1 innings and his spring performance was kinda mediocre. That said, he's been pretty dominant in the minors and I expect him to debut in early 2018. I'm a little surprised he was sent out already. I thought he'd stick around a little longer. Tanner Rainey remains in camp, I kinda thought he'd be sent out first of the big three young relief prospects (Herget, Weiss, Rainey). Notably Zack Weiss remains in camp. Weiss is on the 40 man roster and has put up better results than Herget this spring, but going into camp I sorta assumed Herget would be around longer than Weiss.
I guess these are all "surprised but not surprised" moves. Not shocked but also not what I expected to see.
Guys who I'm kinda surprised have AVOIDED moves and still remain in camp, either for bad performances or because they won't make the team for other reasons: -RHP Vance Worley - he's arguably been the LEAST successful pitcher in camp. I expect he'll be released right before opening day, or whenever his retention bonus or whatever is due. -RHP Dylan Floro - The 27 year old ground ball machine, he had kinda ugly numbers in AAA for the Cubs and whoever else, and has had kinda a rough spring, but remains in camp. -RHP Tanner Rainey - He has a great arm, I just thought he'd be sent out before Jimmy Herget, not after. He's walked 5 in 4.1 IP. -OF Mason Williams - He's not making the team. -OF Rosell Herrera - He's not making the team. -1b/OF Sebastian Elizalde - He's not making the team. -C Joe Hudson - They need people who can catch, and I guess getting Stuart Turner into games mattered more.
Guys who arguably have justified an unconditional release for how terrible they've been, but also still have a real chance of making the team: -LHP Oliver Perez - He signed on February 25, nearly two weeks after pitchers and catchers reported, so he got off to a late start. He's 36, but has a 15 MLB season track record, so you pretty well know what you're going to get. He's put up a ~4.00 FIP the past couple of years with over a strikeout per inning. How he looks and feels probably matters more than how his numbers look. Kyle Crockett being reassigned is good news for Oliver Perez. It'll be interesting to see how his selection will be received IF he makes the team - an experienced lefty specialist or the next in a long line of undeserving washed up scrubs? I'd rather see Oliver Perez in the bullpen than Cody Reed, Amir Garrett, or Brandon Finnegan to open the season.
It'll be interesting to see who gets time in AAA Louisville's outfield. Current candidates include: Guys who'd play every day: OF Phil Ervin - the only serious prospect, who'll play everyday in AAA if he's not sitting on the Reds bench.
Guys competing for playing time: OF Tyler Goeddel - He's 25, a former Rule 5 pick, quietly had a solid 2017 with a .360 OBP, including .357 in half a season at AAA. Plays all 3 OF positions, may still earn his way back to the majors as OBP-oriented a backup OF. Teams liked him a lot before the 2016 Rule 5 draft. RF Gabriel Guerrero - He's 24, has upside, and had a solid 2017 in AA Pensacola. Untapped power, reportedly. Probably plays everyday in Louisville. SS/2b/3b/CF Darnell Sweeney - Just turned 27, plays almost everywhere on the field, and coming off a solid season in AAA Louisville. Probably won't start in the OF, but still a possible (albeit long shot) future MLB utility player. He's got the versatility teams look for in such a role. Has debuted in MLB. 1b/3b/OF Patrick Kivlehan - He's 28. Maybe Bryan Price and the Reds were just being nice, but they made it sound like they wanted him to play everyday in AAA and earn his way back. He has lots of power. It'll be interesting to see how much playing time he actually gets at his age. Kivlehan started playing baseball pretty darn late in his life, so little about him has followed typical trajectories, so I consider his path back to the majors at 28 to be much better than your average 28 year old. Playing 4 (or 5 if you consider CF) positions doesn't hurt. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit well in AAA Louisville. Of course, getting released (or sold for cash) after a rough start back in AAA wouldn't really surprise me either. 1b/OF Sebastian Elizalde - He's 26, plays the three easiest to fill positions with a respectable but empty batting average. I've never been high on him at all, but it'll be interesting to see how much he ends up playing. I seriously doubt he'll ever reach MLB, I think he's topped out as AAA filler. OF Rosell Herrera - May be released after camp? Has hit 2 HRs this spring, but hasn't done much else. CF Mason Williams - May be released after camp? Has done alright this spring, but is he any better than the other guys? OF Ben Revere - I expect he'll be released if he fails to win the 5th OF job.
Needless to say most of the serious prospects I expect to see in AAA Louisville this season are infielders and pitchers, not outfielders.
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