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Post by redsfanman on Feb 15, 2018 17:12:58 GMT -5
Your 13 position players, as I see them, shortly before position players report:
C - Barnhart C - Mesoraco 1b - Votto 2b - Gennett 3b - Suarez SS - Peraza CF - Hamilton OF - Winker OF - Schebler OF - Duvall OF - Ervin 2b - Herrera (out of options) SS - Pennington (NRI)
Alternates: C Stuart Turner INF/OF Patrick Kivlehan (NRI) INF Alex Blandino
Of course they might break camp with 4 starters due to off days or something like that, which may temporarily add another bench player (or more likely a reliever).
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Post by schellis on Feb 15, 2018 17:57:10 GMT -5
Your 13 position players, as I see them, shortly before position players report: C - Barnhart C - Mesoraco 1b - Votto 2b - Gennett 3b - Suarez SS - Peraza CF - Hamilton OF - Winker OF - Schebler OF - Duvall OF - Ervin 2b - Herrera (out of options) SS - Pennington (NRI) Alternates: C Stuart Turner INF/OF Patrick Kivlehan (NRI) INF Alex Blandino Of course they might break camp with 4 starters due to off days or something like that, which may temporarily add another bench player (or more likely a reliever). I'd take Blandino over Herrera or Pennington. Mainly because I think Pennington can't hit at all and Herrera can't play anywhere by 2B. Blandino I think has a solid bat and glove I might even take him over Peraza if he could be a regular SS.
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Post by yorak on Feb 15, 2018 18:00:37 GMT -5
Winker's gonna rake if he gets proper playing time, which he should.
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 17, 2018 21:59:09 GMT -5
I like Alex Blandino a lot, I just consider him a long shot for opening day. I think he'll spend much of the season with the Reds, though. Hopefully he has a strong spring and wins the backup shortstop job from Pennington, but I think that seems like a bit of a long shot.
Dilson Herrera, who claims his shoulder is alright, has been working at 3b and SS this spring. I'll believe he plays those positions when I see it, but it's something. I think the fact Scooter sorta kinda plays 3b and OF opens the options a bit, makes it easier to carry an only-2b like Dilson Herrera. Herrera being out of options gives him a definite edge. As an experienced young AAA hitter who's primarily been held back by shoulder problems that are supposedly cured now, I'd be stunned if they gave him up.
It'll be interesting to find how they rank their non-shortstops at shortstop... Senzel, Blandino, Herrera, Suarez... how comfortable they are with each of them. We know they're not serious about playing Suarez at shortstop anymore. But how unacceptable the others are, even in spot starts, is an interesting unknown.
Someone who can truly play SS while also be relatively okay with barely playing (like Pennington) would be nice. Letting Alex Blandino sit on the bench and play ~1 day a week would kinda be a shame. More starts by Blandino at other positions (2b/3b) would take opportunities away from Herrera. If Herrera bombs or gets hurt a spot opens up for Blandino to take his job.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Feb 22, 2018 16:38:34 GMT -5
The Starting Lineup for Friday
1.Billy Hamilton | CF 2.Eugenio Suarez | 3B 3.Joey Votto | 1B 4.Scooter Gennett | 2B 5.Adam Duvall | LF 6.Scott Schebler | RF 7.Jose Peraza | SS 8.Tucker Barnhart | C 9.Dilson Herrera | DH 10.Sal Romano | SP
After Romano, we'll see Mahle, Stephens, Shackelford, & Meulla
Lorezen "starts" on Saturday followed by Luis Castillo on Sunday.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2018 17:17:19 GMT -5
The Starting Lineup for Friday 1.Billy Hamilton | CF 2.Eugenio Suarez | 3B 3.Joey Votto | 1B 4.Scooter Gennett | 2B 5.Adam Duvall | LF 6.Scott Schebler | RF 7.Jose Peraza | SS 8.Tucker Barnhart | C 9.Dilson Herrera | DH 10.Sal Romano | SP After Romano, we'll see Mahle, Stephens, Shackelford, & Meulla Lorezen "starts" on Saturday followed by Luis Castillo on Sunday. Right there barring injury is your opening day lineup sans Herrera. Winker will not be in lineup on opening day. Have to play the vets that day. Hamilton will lead off most of season imo. Price never learns or Williams or Bob C. whoever is making the desicion to lead off Hamilton.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2018 17:19:54 GMT -5
Your 13 position players, as I see them, shortly before position players report: C - Barnhart C - Mesoraco 1b - Votto 2b - Gennett 3b - Suarez SS - Peraza CF - Hamilton OF - Winker OF - Schebler OF - Duvall OF - Ervin 2b - Herrera (out of options) SS - Pennington (NRI) Alternates: C Stuart Turner INF/OF Patrick Kivlehan (NRI) INF Alex Blandino Of course they might break camp with 4 starters due to off days or something like that, which may temporarily add another bench player (or more likely a reliever). I predict the same 13 as you did. Blandino will not make opening day roster. I am not saying he shouldn't but with Herrera out of options he will for sure be on opening day roster unless he is on D.L. Pennington will make it as well gotta have that good field no hit backup SS. It is a must.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Feb 22, 2018 18:04:45 GMT -5
The Starting Lineup for Friday 1.Billy Hamilton | CF 2.Eugenio Suarez | 3B 3.Joey Votto | 1B 4.Scooter Gennett | 2B 5.Adam Duvall | LF 6.Scott Schebler | RF 7.Jose Peraza | SS 8.Tucker Barnhart | C 9.Dilson Herrera | DH 10.Sal Romano | SP After Romano, we'll see Mahle, Stephens, Shackelford, & Meulla Lorezen "starts" on Saturday followed by Luis Castillo on Sunday. Right there barring injury is your opening day lineup sans Herrera. Winker will not be in lineup on opening day. Have to play the vets that day. Hamilton will lead off most of season imo. Price never learns or Williams or Bob C. whoever is making the desicion to lead off Hamilton. At least Suarez is in the two-hole as opposed to Peraza. I'm not saying Peraza might not end being a fine #2 hitter, but he'll have to prove it at this point.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 7, 2018 19:12:33 GMT -5
So, I want to share my OF thoughts. They're pretty straight forward.
Split time with a rotation of 4 outfielders pretty evenly, at least as the plan going into the season. Obviously that could change with transactions, performance, injuries, and other factors. But I think the notion of giving up on one of the four starting outfielders is pretty nonsensical.
-162 games, ~4 PA/game, 3 jobs, split evenly between 4 players, equates to ~486 PA per hitter. Of course, that's only a gross approximation. Hitting at the top of the lineup might get an additional PA per game. Winker can DH sometimes. Somebody might get hurt and fall short.
-There will be 486 starts by Reds outfielders in 162 games of 2018, so each player could make 121.5 starts, or 5.25 starts per 7 days, in a fair distribution.
-Once or twice a week Scott Schebler starts in CF while Billy Hamilton sits on the bench and Winker plays RF. -Once or twice a week Adam Duvall sits on the bench while Winker plays LF. -Once or twice a week Scott Schebler sits on the bench while Winker plays RF. -Once or twice a week Jesse Winker sits on the bench.
Some general guidelines: -Try to start Adam Duvall against all LHPs. -Rest one of Schebler, Winker, and Hamilton against LHPs. -Rest Adam Duvall against RHPs once or twice a week, which shouldn't be hard to accommodate. -Try to start Billy Hamilton in bigger ballparks, or with whichever starters typically allow the most fly balls. -5.25 starts per week, and obviously adapt as needed.
What NOT to do: -Bench Adam Duvall because he's no longer a starter. -Bench Scott Schebler because he's no longer a starter. -Bench Jesse Winker because he hasn't earned a starting job. -Bench Billy Hamilton because defense doesn't matter or whatever the argument currently is.
Commonly repeated statements to ignore: -"Jesse Winker needs 550 ABs this year or somebody needs to be fired!" -"Bench Duvall" -"Bench Scott Schebler because he can't hit and is a 4th outfielder" -"Bench Billy Hamilton because he can't hit" -"#FreeWinker"
Some key points to remember: -Scott Schebler is at least as good a hitter as Adam Duvall, and both are better fielders than Jesse Winker -Adam Duvall has worn down in the second half in both MLB seasons, and shouldn't be harmed by a couple of days off each week. -Jesse Winker is without question the team's worst defensive outfielder, and can still pinch hit in his 1-2 bench days each week. -Billy Hamilton is the team's best fielder and baserunner, and his glove is a big boost for the pitching staff. -Who starts in the outfield on opening day does NOT matter. If Jesse Winker starts 5+ games in the first week I do not care in the slightest if Opening Day is his day off or not. If they send the more experienced guys out vs Scherzer, fine. -When not starting Billy Hamilton can enter late in double switches -Jesse Winker is likely to be most frequently replaced by a defensive replacement.
In my opinion: Jesse Winker should lead off when he's in the lineup. Billy Hamilton should lead off the other times. Jesse Winker will probably have an OBP .050 to .100 higher, corresponding to 25-50 times more, but with his slow speed he's more likely to be doubled up, less likely to advance, and the additional runs he'd produce with his opposite end of the spectrum (zero speed, high OBP) skill set would probably be somewhere between 0-10 runs over the course of a full season.
So, first week of the season, the Reds presumably face: Nationals - RHP Max Scherzer (day off for Duvall or Winker?) - I want Hamilton in CF on opening day. Nationals - RHP Stephen Strasburg (day off for Duvall or Hamilton?) Nationals - LHP Gio Gonzalez (day off for Schebler or Winker?) Cubs - LHP Jose Quintana (day off for Schebler or Winker, the one who played the previous day?) Cubs - RHP Tyler Chatwood (day off for Duvall or Hamilton?
~5 starts per week for each of them. No more than 6. No fewer than 4. Adjust based on how players perform, who gets hurt, stuff like that.
Factor in who's pitching for Reds, ground ball vs fly ball pitcher. Factor in real matchup data about who's likely to succeed against who. If one of them struggles against power righties, adapt accordingly.
So, that's my crazy idea. Fairly distribute playing time. ~5 starts per week for all 4 guys. Aim for ~486 PAs for all 4, and let factors like injuries and performance decide who gets more and who gets less, rather than an arbitrary pre-season decision. It may be tough, it may be more complicated than it sounds, but I think it's the right decision for the 2018 Reds.
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Post by kycatscinnreds on Mar 7, 2018 21:22:16 GMT -5
6 ER for Bailey in 3 IP today. I want to see what he does this year, but to me he has been overrated and overpayed because of 2 no hitters and a couple decent stretches. His injuries make it even worse. His and Mesoracos contracts have hurt.
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Post by schellis on Mar 7, 2018 23:44:23 GMT -5
6 ER for Bailey in 3 IP today. I want to see what he does this year, but to me he has been overrated and overpayed because of 2 no hitters and a couple decent stretches. His injuries make it even worse. His and Mesoracos contracts have hurt. Can't predict injuries. At the time of the signing both of those contracts were fine, even under value. Bailey was improving every year prior to his injuries, Mesoraco's contract really was just the Reds trying to structure the contract to avoid arbitration raises. If healthy Mesoraco likely blows past that value going year to year. They hurt now because the players got hurt, doesn't make them bad contracts just unlucky ones. Now if they signed them and really stunk for no reason sure they'd be bad.
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Post by kycatscinnreds on Mar 8, 2018 0:16:30 GMT -5
6 ER for Bailey in 3 IP today. I want to see what he does this year, but to me he has been overrated and overpayed because of 2 no hitters and a couple decent stretches. His injuries make it even worse. His and Mesoracos contracts have hurt. Can't predict injuries. At the time of the signing both of those contracts were fine, even under value. Bailey was improving every year prior to his injuries, Mesoraco's contract really was just the Reds trying to structure the contract to avoid arbitration raises. If healthy Mesoraco likely blows past that value going year to year. They hurt now because the players got hurt, doesn't make them bad contracts just unlucky ones. Now if they signed them and really stunk for no reason sure they'd be bad. Fair point. I just dont think he is that good and hopefully wont be our #1. If thats the case it will be another long year.
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flash
Ted Kluszewski
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Post by flash on Mar 8, 2018 16:21:04 GMT -5
My predictions will probably be debated, and I don't mind. I don't believe Hamilton will be the opening day centerfielder. It will be either Mason Williams or Ben Revere. He just cannot hit and everytime you start him you are giving up at least three outs. He is a late inning replacement for speed and defense. The catch he made the other day was good, but Revere was tracking the ball and would have caught it without the theatrics. he only pulled up when Hamilton entered the picture. Even Otani said he thought the ball would be caught. The other outfield positions may be Winker and Schebler. Duval may be platooned and used as a right hand bat off the bench. Ervin is probably ready, but he needs a little seasoning.
Third base belongs to Suarez and I believe it will stay that way. Senzel just needs more seasoning. right now. Remember he didn't even play in the Southern league playoffs because he was on the disabled list last year.Shortstop will be between Pennington and Pedraza. They might be platooned. Gennett owns second and Votto first. I believe the Reds would be wise to have Hamilton take some grounders. He did start out at a shortstop so he could possibly be a back up middle fielder. Barnhart is behind the plate with Mesoraco as back up.
Bailey will in the starting rotation because he is making the big bucks. That is all Castillo will be there because of talent. I think Finnegan and garrett will make it as lefties. Descafani as the fifth. Mahle could use a year in AAA along with Lopez. Both are future starters and will not be used in relief. In the pen Iglesias will close. Lorenzen will probably go there also along with Peralta even though none have them have earned it yet. Weiss will probably make the team along with Brice. Maybe Shackelford or Quackenbush also . Reed is still horrible Romano just didn't make it. Maybe this will change in the upcoming weeks.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2018 16:48:37 GMT -5
My predictions will probably be debated, and I don't mind. I don't believe Hamilton will be the opening day centerfielder. It will be either Mason Williams or Ben Revere. He just cannot hit and everytime you start him you are giving up at least three outs. He is a late inning replacement for speed and defense. The catch he made the other day was good, but Revere was tracking the ball and would have caught it without the theatrics. he only pulled up when Hamilton entered the picture. Even Otani said he thought the ball would be caught. The other outfield positions may be Winker and Schebler. Duval may be platooned and used as a right hand bat off the bench. Ervin is probably ready, but he needs a little seasoning. Third base belongs to Suarez and I believe it will stay that way. Senzel just needs more seasoning. right now. Remember he didn't even play in the Southern league playoffs because he was on the disabled list last year.Shortstop will be between Pennington and Pedraza. They might be platooned. Gennett owns second and Votto first. I believe the Reds would be wise to have Hamilton take some grounders. He did start out at a shortstop so he could possibly be a back up middle fielder. Barnhart is behind the plate with Mesoraco as back up. Bailey will in the starting rotation because he is making the big bucks. That is all Castillo will be there because of talent. I think Finnegan and garrett will make it as lefties. Descafani as the fifth. Mahle could use a year in AAA along with Lopez. Both are future starters and will not be used in relief. In the pen Iglesias will close. Lorenzen will probably go there also along with Peralta even though none have them have earned it yet. Weiss will probably make the team along with Brice. Maybe Shackelford or Quackenbush also . Reed is still horrible Romano just didn't make it. Maybe this will change in the upcoming weeks. Hamilton will be the opening day CF and play 3/4 of the time. Unless he is traded or injured. Duvall will be the opening day LF and play 3/4 of the time unless he is injured or traded. Schebler will be opening day RF and play 3/4 of the time unless he is injured or traded. Winker will play 3/4 of the time but since he isnt a VET Price will not start him opening day unless one of the other 3 are hurt or traded. Revere is a 5th OFer nothing more. He can't hit any better than Hamilton is not as good of a OFer as Hamilton and cant run like Hamilton. Scooter cant hit a LHP to save his life. One of Herrera/Pennington/Bladino/etc wILL PLAY AGAINST LHP and Scooter will play against RHP. Barnhart is a better hitter batting Left handed. Mesoraco hits Left hand pitching. Should be a 70/30 split in playing time with Barnhardt playing 70 % of the time. SS will be Peraza sink or swim till 1. they find out in AAA if Senzel can play SS or 2. Untill Senzel gets brought up May or June. Pennington is nothing more than a backup SS/2B.
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Post by Brutus23 on Mar 8, 2018 18:14:38 GMT -5
My predictions will probably be debated, and I don't mind. I don't believe Hamilton will be the opening day centerfielder. It will be either Mason Williams or Ben Revere. He just cannot hit and everytime you start him you are giving up at least three outs. He is a late inning replacement for speed and defense. The catch he made the other day was good, but Revere was tracking the ball and would have caught it without the theatrics. he only pulled up when Hamilton entered the picture. Even Otani said he thought the ball would be caught. The other outfield positions may be Winker and Schebler. Duval may be platooned and used as a right hand bat off the bench. Ervin is probably ready, but he needs a little seasoning. Third base belongs to Suarez and I believe it will stay that way. Senzel just needs more seasoning. right now. Remember he didn't even play in the Southern league playoffs because he was on the disabled list last year.Shortstop will be between Pennington and Pedraza. They might be platooned. Gennett owns second and Votto first. I believe the Reds would be wise to have Hamilton take some grounders. He did start out at a shortstop so he could possibly be a back up middle fielder. Barnhart is behind the plate with Mesoraco as back up. Bailey will in the starting rotation because he is making the big bucks. That is all Castillo will be there because of talent. I think Finnegan and garrett will make it as lefties. Descafani as the fifth. Mahle could use a year in AAA along with Lopez. Both are future starters and will not be used in relief. In the pen Iglesias will close. Lorenzen will probably go there also along with Peralta even though none have them have earned it yet. Weiss will probably make the team along with Brice. Maybe Shackelford or Quackenbush also . Reed is still horrible Romano just didn't make it. Maybe this will change in the upcoming weeks. Hamilton will be the iopening day CF and play 3/4 of the time. Unless he is traded or injured. Duvall will be the opening day LF and play 3/4 of the time unless he is injured or traded. Schebler will be opening day RF and play 3/4 of the time unless he is injured or traded. Winker will play 3/4 of the time but since he isnt a VET Price will not start him opening day unless one of the other 3 are hurt or traded. Revere is a 5th OFer nothing more. He can't hit any better than Hamilton is not as good of a OFer as Hamilton and cant run like Hamilton. Scooter cant hit a LHP to save his life. One of Herrera/Pennington/Bladino/etc wILL PLAY AGAINST LHP and Scooter will play against RHP. Barnhart is a better hitter batting Left handed. Mesoraco hits Right hand pitching. Should be a 70/30 split in playing time with Barnhardt playing 70 % of the time. SS will be Peraza sink or swim till 1. they find out in AAA if Senzel can play SS or 2. Untill Senzel gets brought up May or June. Pennington is nothing more than a backup SS/2B. That pretty much sums up how I think it will play out. Of the outfielders, I believe come the end of the season Duvall has the most AB of any of the bunch.
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