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Post by sloucho on Jul 29, 2016 22:55:08 GMT -5
Stephenson rocked tonight. 6-7 with a 4.17 era. I say get him up here now before he loses any more confidence. It's not looking good for Stephenson right now.
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Post by kinsm on Jul 29, 2016 23:37:10 GMT -5
Getting rocked in AAA certainly warrants a call-up to face even more advanced hitters.
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Post by grizzlylcs on Jul 30, 2016 0:18:32 GMT -5
Sal Romano - 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K Retired 20 straight before a HBP and H
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Aug 1, 2016 18:49:26 GMT -5
I can't really see an argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino. Aquino has been significantly better at high A than Ervin ever was (Ervin was terrible) and Aquino still seems to be pretty raw (meaning, more room for growth). At some point, don't Ervin's supposed tools have to lead to something? He's been lousy in the minors for 3 years. Aquino is still more likely to flame out than become a big league outfielder but at least the potential is there, but Ervin's upside seems to 4th outfielder on a crappy team - and to me even that is a reach. I have never understood this board's lack of appreciation for Phil Ervin. How many guys out there have 60-65 speed, 50 power, and only strike out 1.5 times for every time they walk? Among major leaguers, I'd say only two guys meet all of that criteria: Mike Trout and A.J. Pollock. Jason Heyward is close. Ervin's arm is pretty good too. Ervin won't be as good as Pollock and Trout because the only logical explanation for his consistently mediocre BABIP is "dead pull hitter," but still, he's Drew Stubbs minus the strikeout rate that makes you want to gouge your eyes out. Alternative Chris Young with more walks but a little less power. That's nice. And for me, it's a top 10 prospect (although I would put Aquino there too).
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Post by cbassxu on Aug 1, 2016 19:33:34 GMT -5
I can't really see an argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino. Aquino has been significantly better at high A than Ervin ever was (Ervin was terrible) and Aquino still seems to be pretty raw (meaning, more room for growth). At some point, don't Ervin's supposed tools have to lead to something? He's been lousy in the minors for 3 years. Aquino is still more likely to flame out than become a big league outfielder but at least the potential is there, but Ervin's upside seems to 4th outfielder on a crappy team - and to me even that is a reach. I have never understood this board's lack of appreciation for Phil Ervin. How many guys out there have 60-65 speed, 50 power, and only strike out 1.5 times for every time they walk? Among major leaguers, I'd say only two guys meet all of that criteria: Mike Trout and A.J. Pollock. Jason Heyward is close. Ervin's arm is pretty good too. Ervin won't be as good as Pollock and Trout because the only logical explanation for his consistently mediocre BABIP is "dead pull hitter," but still, he's Drew Stubbs minus the strikeout rate that makes you want to gouge your eyes out. Alternative Chris Young with more walks but a little less power. That's nice. And for me, it's a top 10 prospect (although I would put Aquino there too). I think the biggest reason most people look down a bit on Ervin is that when you get drafted in the 1st round the overall expectations are a lot higher for you to be a true impact player, not a role player. Also a big piece of prospect rankings (Top 10 lists etc) is ceiling and potential. While I agree Ervin seems like a fairly safe bet to make the bigs and be a role player, I'm just not sure he offers the ceiling that is worthy of being ranked in the Top 10. Just my two cents.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 1, 2016 22:35:29 GMT -5
I can't really see an argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino. Aquino has been significantly better at high A than Ervin ever was (Ervin was terrible) and Aquino still seems to be pretty raw (meaning, more room for growth). At some point, don't Ervin's supposed tools have to lead to something? He's been lousy in the minors for 3 years. Aquino is still more likely to flame out than become a big league outfielder but at least the potential is there, but Ervin's upside seems to 4th outfielder on a crappy team - and to me even that is a reach. I have never understood this board's lack of appreciation for Phil Ervin. How many guys out there have 60-65 speed, 50 power, and only strike out 1.5 times for every time they walk? Among major leaguers, I'd say only two guys meet all of that criteria: Mike Trout and A.J. Pollock. Jason Heyward is close. Ervin's arm is pretty good too. Ervin won't be as good as Pollock and Trout because the only logical explanation for his consistently mediocre BABIP is "dead pull hitter," but still, he's Drew Stubbs minus the strikeout rate that makes you want to gouge your eyes out. Alternative Chris Young with more walks but a little less power. That's nice. And for me, it's a top 10 prospect (although I would put Aquino there too). He's probably got 60 speed tops, 45 power tops, his hit tool is sorely lacking - hitting in the .230's the past 3 seasons combined is not all that encouraging. He might top out as a 4th outfielder in the show, which none of us should be all that unhappy about really...if he's anything more I'd be ecstatic.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 2, 2016 10:09:21 GMT -5
One minor question I have now about AAA Louisville... Scott Schebler is the obvious candidate to be called up to replace Jay Bruce. Jose Peraza is (currently) on the Reds roster, as much as I wish that would change. Bryson Smith is on Louisville's DL. Winker and Lutz are corner outfielders.
Who do the Louisville Bats now turn to as their CF? 32 year old utility player Hernan Iribarren? Blocked-at-2b Tony Renda? Promote Phil Ervin from AA to play CF?
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Post by floydgator on Aug 2, 2016 10:16:00 GMT -5
I can't really see an argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino. Aquino has been significantly better at high A than Ervin ever was (Ervin was terrible) and Aquino still seems to be pretty raw (meaning, more room for growth). At some point, don't Ervin's supposed tools have to lead to something? He's been lousy in the minors for 3 years. Aquino is still more likely to flame out than become a big league outfielder but at least the potential is there, but Ervin's upside seems to 4th outfielder on a crappy team - and to me even that is a reach. I have never understood this board's lack of appreciation for Phil Ervin. How many guys out there have 60-65 speed, 50 power, and only strike out 1.5 times for every time they walk? Among major leaguers, I'd say only two guys meet all of that criteria: Mike Trout and A.J. Pollock. Jason Heyward is close. Ervin's arm is pretty good too. Ervin won't be as good as Pollock and Trout because the only logical explanation for his consistently mediocre BABIP is "dead pull hitter," but still, he's Drew Stubbs minus the strikeout rate that makes you want to gouge your eyes out. Alternative Chris Young with more walks but a little less power. That's nice. And for me, it's a top 10 prospect (although I would put Aquino there too). He has hit all of .240 in the minor leagues (for the last 3 seasons) but at least he has done so with little power. The extremely limited reason for hope is derived from his supposed ability to get on base. He's done that at a .340 rate. That would be pretty good for the big leagues. He's done that at A, A+ and AA. IMO, that likely translates to a OBP at the big league level of about .300. In other words, crap. You have to have Billy Hamilton's defense and basestealing ability (or Duvall's power #s) to get away with that. Ervin has shown none of that. At best, he's a mediocre 4th outfielder. What is there to appreciate there? If that is a top 10 prospect in your organization, your system sucks.
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Post by floydgator on Aug 2, 2016 10:17:09 GMT -5
One minor question I have now about AAA Louisville... Scott Schebler is the obvious candidate to be called up to replace Jay Bruce. Jose Peraza is (currently) on the Reds roster, as much as I wish that would change. Bryson Smith is on Louisville's DL. Winker and Lutz are corner outfielders. Who do the Louisville Bats now turn to as their CF? 32 year old utility player Hernan Iribarren? Blocked-at-2b Tony Renda? Promote Phil Ervin from AA to play CF? Ervin is 24 and he has now played a full season at AA. It's time to move him up. He's either ready now or he is never going to be ready.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 2, 2016 10:31:45 GMT -5
Regarding Phil Ervin and the expectations cast on first round picks, in my opinion it's worth remembering that he was selected with the #27 pick, after 26 other guys, many of whom have been at least as disappointing (actually far more than) as him. The Reds have since acquired two guys drafted before him in Jonathan Crawford (20) and Eric Jagielo (26). In my opinion getting a versatile guy with strong plate discipline, albeit not ideal, isn't a big problem with a #27 pick. If Ervin were a top 5 or 10 talent he would've been drafted in the top 5 or 10.
Just by the likelihood that Ervin makes MLB he's likely to end up one of the top 27 players in the draft class by WAR.
It reminds me a little of Drew Stubbs, who in hindsight fans hated as a pick, he was chosen at #8 overall in 2006, and at this point is #6 in his draft class for career WAR (at 9.1). In hindsight they could've chosen Scherzer, Lincecum, or Ian Kennedy instead, but overall he did his part to justify his pick.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 2, 2016 10:36:06 GMT -5
I agree that it's time to move Phil Ervin up, both because of his time in AA and the lack of a serious CF option in AAA. I hope it happens. Ervin might not be a great defensive CF candidate, but I doubt any of the other guys are either. The ~32 year old utility player would just be a waste of ABs, and moving someone like Selsky or Lutz there is just kinda silly. I do like Tony Renda, but I'd much rather see Ervin get some ABs in Louisville.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 2, 2016 10:42:45 GMT -5
Regarding Phil Ervin and the expectations cast on first round picks, in my opinion it's worth remembering that he was selected with the #27 pick, after 26 other guys, many of whom have been at least as disappointing (actually far more than) as him. The Reds have since acquired two guys drafted before him in Jonathan Crawford (20) and Eric Jagielo (26). In my opinion getting a versatile guy with strong plate discipline, albeit not ideal, isn't a big problem with a #27 pick. If Ervin were a top 5 or 10 talent he would've been drafted in the top 5 or 10. Just by the likelihood that Ervin makes MLB he's likely to end up one of the top 27 players in the draft class by WAR. It reminds me a little of Drew Stubbs, who in hindsight fans hated as a pick, he was chosen at #8 overall in 2006, and at this point is #6 in his draft class for career WAR (at 9.1). In hindsight they could've chosen Scherzer, Lincecum, or Ian Kennedy instead, but overall he did his part to justify his pick. 140+ guys from that draft will make it to the bigs.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 2, 2016 10:44:05 GMT -5
Leave Schebler there, let Waldrop man LF - Duvall in RF.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 2, 2016 10:56:51 GMT -5
Leave Schebler there, let Waldrop man LF - Duvall in RF. I'm just curious, is that a joke? Like, a way to keep the Reds' win totals down? Or you think Waldrop, in the midst of an unremarkable season, will do better than the International League's Player of the Month? It's probably a joke, but maybe you just really dislike Schebler.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 2, 2016 12:10:25 GMT -5
Apparently not only is Schebler on his way up, but apparently 25 year old 2b/OF Tony Renda is too... according to Rosencrans. No roster moves announced yet, but calling up another infielder strongly suggests to me that Peraza is going to Louisville.
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