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Post by cbassxu on Jul 19, 2016 8:52:51 GMT -5
Stephenson has hit really well since coming back from injury. I'm kind of wondering if he was playing through some nagging injuries early in the year which was affecting his performance.
Also really happy with how the new, highly drafted guys (Senzel, Trammell, Okey) are performing. Obviously the pitchers at the mid-high levels gave us some reason for optimism going into the season but the lower level guys seem to be doing the same now.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 19, 2016 12:50:37 GMT -5
In my opinion facing Arizona Rookie League pitching on a rehab assignment helped Tyler Stephenson for a few days. Then he was 4/14 in his first three games back to Dayton, before having probably the single best day of his career yesterday, going 4/4. It seems to me like just a matter of small sample sizes... A 4/4 game in your 5th day back makes anybody's return strong.
At this point how he does really doesn't matter too much to me, he should probably return to Dayton next year no matter what he does in the second half. Whether he struggles or becomes the Dragons' MVP in the second half it's back to Dayton, with just a question of how long he stays in 2017.
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Post by gmburchfield on Jul 20, 2016 14:24:08 GMT -5
In the same game Senzel went 4\5 with a home run and a triple.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 27, 2016 7:49:59 GMT -5
Scott Schebler went 5/5 last night and hit for the cycle. He's now hitting .315 with a .370 OBP in AAA. In 276 ABs he has 18 2b, 7 3b, 13 HR, 16 BB, and 55 K. He's mostly played CF (45/69 games). So far he's only attempted (and succeeded) in stealing 1 base, after averaging more like 15 SBs in previous seasons. The lefthanded batter is hitting .290 against LHPs and .330 against RHPs.
Schebler hit .200 with a .226 OBP in 80 ABs in May, after being sent to Louisville, but has hit .349 and .378 in the two months since, with OBPs over .400.
The main criticisms of his Louisville performance are likely that he's walking too little and striking out a little more than you'd like, but geez has he put together a good season.
Schebler is now leading Jesse Winker in batting average (.290) but trailing him in OBP (.379), but has a nearly 200 point lead in slugging percentage.
If and when Jay Bruce is traded Schebler is looking like the pretty obvious guy to call up for another look.
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Post by The Duke on Jul 27, 2016 21:34:27 GMT -5
Nick Senzel 2 for 3 with a mammoth HR to dead center (402 ft to the wall and it was well up on there batters eye), a triple, and a walk. Okey with his 5th HR in Dayton as well. I think both get bumped up to Daytona before the FSL playoffs.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 27, 2016 23:32:28 GMT -5
MLBPipeline released their midseason rankings: m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=cin1. Nick Senzel (#56) 2. Amir Garrett (#57) 3. Cody Reed (#59) 4. Jesse Winker (#66) 5. Robert Stephenson (#70) 6. Alfredo Rodriguez 7. Tyler Mahle 8. Rookie Davis 9. Keury Mella 10. Tyler Stephenson 11. Taylor Trammell 12. Chris Okey 13. Tony Santillan 14. Alex Blandino 15. Nick Travieso 16. Phil Ervin 17. Sal Romano 18. Scott Schebler 19. Blake Trahan 20. Calten Daal 21. Aristides Aquino 22. Taylor Sparks 23. Ian Kahaloa 24. Eric Jagielo 25. Tanner Rainey 26. Nick Hanson 27. Gavin LaValley 28. Jon Moscot 29. Kyle Waldrop 30. Wyatt Strahan Some notes that surprised me, in no particular order: -Alfredo Rodriguez is listed with a 50 hit tool. -Keury Mella still as high as #9? -Alex Blandino, shouldn't he have fallen further than #14? -Aristides Aquino ranked #21 -Jagielo at #24, probably shouldn't be in top 30. -Tanner Rainey, #25, shouldn't be on the list. -Gavin LaValley deserves higher than #27. -No Shed Long I guess they add in new names and only worry about switching around the top few.
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Post by sloucho on Jul 28, 2016 22:26:14 GMT -5
MLBPipeline released their midseason rankings: m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=cin1. Nick Senzel (#56) 2. Amir Garrett (#57) 3. Cody Reed (#59) 4. Jesse Winker (#66) 5. Robert Stephenson (#70) 6. Alfredo Rodriguez 7. Tyler Mahle 8. Rookie Davis 9. Keury Mella 10. Tyler Stephenson 11. Taylor Trammell 12. Chris Okey 13. Tony Santillan 14. Alex Blandino 15. Nick Travieso 16. Phil Ervin 17. Sal Romano 18. Scott Schebler 19. Blake Trahan 20. Calten Daal 21. Aristides Aquino 22. Taylor Sparks 23. Ian Kahaloa 24. Eric Jagielo 25. Tanner Rainey 26. Nick Hanson 27. Gavin LaValley 28. Jon Moscot 29. Kyle Waldrop 30. Wyatt Strahan Some notes that surprised me, in no particular order: -Alfredo Rodriguez is listed with a 50 hit tool. -Keury Mella still as high as #9? -Alex Blandino, shouldn't he have fallen further than #14? -Aristides Aquino ranked #21 -Jagielo at #24, probably shouldn't be in top 30. -Tanner Rainey, #25, shouldn't be on the list. -Gavin LaValley deserves higher than #27. -No Shed Long I guess they add in new names and only worry about switching around the top few. Rookie Davis is having a heck of a year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Louisville soon. Another pitcher I think has a bright future is Ian Kahaloa. I'm tickled by the way Senzel and Okey have adjusted to professional ball so far. Also, a lot of these guys only get their ranking because of their draft position, not their performance. A common thread for prospect rankings. I think Shed Long is a much better prospect than Blandino or Trahan. Trammell ranked that high is a little bit presumptive, but he is still very young, and if he develops power, could be a very interesting prospect. Ervin seems to be a lost cause, but he is ranked high because of his draft position. I hope he finds it, but he is getting older. Aquino should be higher, IMO. I think they should weigh the numbers more than the draft position. A lot of these guys are just never going to make it, but they are high on the list due to their draft position. Just my take.
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Post by floydgator on Jul 28, 2016 23:21:08 GMT -5
Aquino was 5-5 tonight. Now hitting .293. He was at least 6 spots too low on that list.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 28, 2016 23:51:10 GMT -5
MLBPipeline released their midseason rankings: m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=cin1. Nick Senzel (#56) 2. Amir Garrett (#57) 3. Cody Reed (#59) 4. Jesse Winker (#66) 5. Robert Stephenson (#70) 6. Alfredo Rodriguez 7. Tyler Mahle 8. Rookie Davis 9. Keury Mella 10. Tyler Stephenson 11. Taylor Trammell 12. Chris Okey 13. Tony Santillan 14. Alex Blandino 15. Nick Travieso 16. Phil Ervin 17. Sal Romano 18. Scott Schebler 19. Blake Trahan 20. Calten Daal 21. Aristides Aquino 22. Taylor Sparks 23. Ian Kahaloa 24. Eric Jagielo 25. Tanner Rainey 26. Nick Hanson 27. Gavin LaValley 28. Jon Moscot 29. Kyle Waldrop 30. Wyatt Strahan Some notes that surprised me, in no particular order: -Alfredo Rodriguez is listed with a 50 hit tool. -Keury Mella still as high as #9? -Alex Blandino, shouldn't he have fallen further than #14? -Aristides Aquino ranked #21 -Jagielo at #24, probably shouldn't be in top 30. -Tanner Rainey, #25, shouldn't be on the list. -Gavin LaValley deserves higher than #27. -No Shed Long I guess they add in new names and only worry about switching around the top few. Rookie Davis is having a heck of a year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Louisville soon. Another pitcher I think has a bright future is Ian Kahaloa. I'm tickled by the way Senzel and Okey have adjusted to professional ball so far. Also, a lot of these guys only get their ranking because of their draft position, not their performance. A common thread for prospect rankings. I think Shed Long is a much better prospect than Blandino or Trahan. Trammell ranked that high is a little bit presumptive, but he is still very young, and if he develops power, could be a very interesting prospect. Ervin seems to be a lost cause, but he is ranked high because of his draft position. I hope he finds it, but he is getting older. Aquino should be higher, IMO. I think they should weigh the numbers more than the draft position. A lot of these guys are just never going to make it, but they are high on the list due to their draft position. Just my take. I'm speculating that MLBPipeline only cared to go through the top 100, 150, 200 prospects, and mix in high 2016 draft picks. A few random players who got their attention got revisions, but many were left untouched. It combines for a pretty crazy list, in several cases. Blandino, in particular, has had about as bad a year as anyone could imagine. There are a bunch of obvious omissions, Shed Long is just one, Kahaloa is another. Baseball America (somewhat controversially) ranked RHP Jimmy Herget in the top 10, but he's not on this list at all. I have no problem with Phil Ervin's ranking. He's put up a consistent ~.350 OBP all season in AA, which makes him more than a lost cause, in my opinion. He's hit some homeruns and stolen 29 bases. He's largely got the plate discipline stuff down, and just has to figure out how to hit for a higher average. He just turned 24 this week. I look forward to seeing what he does next year in AAA - if he can boost his batting average to .270 next year he'll again look like a useful player. Phil Ervin and Rookie Davis, I think they're both similar in that they're having satisfactory years doing lots of things right, but they both have some obvious and gaping problem they need to fix (which makes some think both are having terrible years). In Ervin's case that's batting average, in Davis' case that's getting more strikeouts. Trammell was ranked something like 17th by Baseball America going into the draft, if anything #11 is a bit low. Raw skills - which he has - commonly factor heavily into prospect rankings, even for guys with limited game experience. Trammell has gotten off to a decent start in Billings. A few high picks - Blandino (2014, #29), Sparks (2014, #58), Jagielo (2013, #26), Tanner Rainey (71) - made the list in the offseason, while the later three have seemingly blown make-or-break years (I'll give Blandino another year...)... while others, like Ervin, Trahan, and Travieso have just sorta held their ground, with a few red flags. I think you're overrating the role of draft position a bit. Guys are often drafted highly because of good raw skills, with the later being reflected in the order. This midseason update just ignored their bad seasons, leading to the main problems of the list.
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Post by The Duke on Jul 29, 2016 2:23:02 GMT -5
Jonathan Mayo made the Reds list. Nuff said. After the top 5, the list is garbage.
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Post by The Duke on Jul 29, 2016 2:59:13 GMT -5
I'm speculating that MLBPipeline only cared to go through the top 100, 150, 200 prospects, and mix in high 2016 draft picks. A few random players who got their attention got revisions, but many were left untouched. It combines for a pretty crazy list, in several cases. I don't think much of Jonathan Mayo, who made the Reds list. It was a big reason why I was excited MLB hired Jim Callis, but at best Callis is Mayo's equal, whereas I think he should be his superior. Blandino, in particular, has had about as bad a year as anyone could imagine. It's been pretty brutal. He's still in my top 30 because of his promise and solid year last year, but he's in the back end of my top 30. There are a bunch of obvious omissions, Shed Long is just one, Kahaloa is another. Baseball America (somewhat controversially) ranked RHP Jimmy Herget in the top 10, but he's not on this list at all. I watched some video on Herget after BA had him in their trade deadline top 10 (it excludes draftees, international signings, and anyone currently in the bigs, it's not really a system top 10) and that sidearm delivery is funky. I wouldn't call it plus stuff, but both the fastball and offspeed are above average. Coupled with that funky delivery hitters rarely see and I get BA's reasoning. Enough to where Herget will be in the 20's for me. I have no problem with Phil Ervin's ranking. He's put up a consistent ~.350 OBP all season in AA, which makes him more than a lost cause, in my opinion. He's hit some homeruns and stolen 29 bases. He's largely got the plate discipline stuff down, and just has to figure out how to hit for a higher average. He just turned 24 this week. I look forward to seeing what he does next year in AAA - if he can boost his batting average to .270 next year he'll again look like a useful player. He'll likely move up again, and jumping up 40 points in average while moving up a level is a big task. I agree all the peripherals are nice, but that average is very low. I read in the preseason that he tries to pull the ball too much, but I'm not sure if that is still an issue or not. His K rate isn't terrible. Maybe he just needs to learn how to drive the ball to the opposite field. We'll see. Phil Ervin and Rookie Davis, I think they're both similar in that they're having satisfactory years doing lots of things right, but they both have some obvious and gaping problem they need to fix (which makes some think both are having terrible years). In Ervin's case that's batting average, in Davis' case that's getting more strikeouts. Word is that Davis pitched through some leg issues early in the year. His last four starts have been much better with 24 K in 23.1 IP vs only something like 3 BB. I know Jim Callis is very high on him, and it's nice that he was able to get outside results with bad peripherals, but I'm definitely liking what we've been seeing more recently. Trammell was ranked something like 17th by Baseball America going into the draft, if anything #11 is a bit low. Raw skills - which he has - commonly factor heavily into prospect rankings, even for guys with limited game experience. Trammell has gotten off to a decent start in Billings. Trammell was #12 on the BA draft list. I'm very high on Trammell. Plus plus athlete, had major D1 offers as a RB in football. He never was a full time baseball player in High school and he immediately stepped into the higher rookie league and is hitting near .300 and taking walks as well. Sure, the K's are high and the power isn't there yet, but he's raw and skilled. I think the power comes in time, and the K's will decrease with reps and full time attention to baseball.
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Post by floydgator on Jul 29, 2016 8:51:45 GMT -5
I can't really see an argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino. Aquino has been significantly better at high A than Ervin ever was (Ervin was terrible) and Aquino still seems to be pretty raw (meaning, more room for growth). At some point, don't Ervin's supposed tools have to lead to something? He's been lousy in the minors for 3 years. Aquino is still more likely to flame out than become a big league outfielder but at least the potential is there, but Ervin's upside seems to 4th outfielder on a crappy team - and to me even that is a reach.
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Post by The Duke on Jul 29, 2016 9:30:38 GMT -5
I can't really see an argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino. Aquino has been significantly better at high A than Ervin ever was (Ervin was terrible) and Aquino still seems to be pretty raw (meaning, more room for growth). At some point, don't Ervin's supposed tools have to lead to something? He's been lousy in the minors for 3 years. Aquino is still more likely to flame out than become a big league outfielder but at least the potential is there, but Ervin's upside seems to 4th outfielder on a crappy team - and to me even that is a reach. As long as Aquino doesn't completely tank the rest of this year I'll definitely have him above Ervin. If he continues to destroy the FSL like he has been the last couple months, he may be in my top 10. Aquino has as much upside as any offensive player in our system.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 29, 2016 10:44:11 GMT -5
By the way, by mentioning "Aristides Aquino ranked #21" as something that surprised me, I meant that to imply that he should be ranked higher. I don't have a problem with Ervin being around the middle of the list, but I definitely agree that Aquino should currently be ranked above him at this point.
The argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino, as I see it, is that it was the right decision entering the season, and the MLBPipeline people got lazy and didn't care to adjust Aquino's ranking based on this season.
Despite Aquino's strong season I still can't avoid feeling really skeptical about him. I guess he just shares too much resemblance to too many other guys who've failed to live up to expectations. He has a high ceiling, but also a really low floor of flaming out in the upper minors...
Ervin increasing his batting average ~40 points as he moves up a level is indeed a big task. Things like that happen, though. I think Ervin has the talent. The peripheral numbers don't suggest a guy who's overmatched. He's put up a ~.270 BABIP for the past couple of years, worse than I think we'd expect from a guy like him. I don't know what his problem is, or what the solution is, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet.
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Post by floydgator on Jul 29, 2016 14:49:06 GMT -5
By the way, by mentioning "Aristides Aquino ranked #21" as something that surprised me, I meant that to imply that he should be ranked higher. I don't have a problem with Ervin being around the middle of the list, but I definitely agree that Aquino should currently be ranked above him at this point. The argument for having Ervin ahead of Aquino, as I see it, is that it was the right decision entering the season, and the MLBPipeline people got lazy and didn't care to adjust Aquino's ranking based on this season. Despite Aquino's strong season I still can't avoid feeling really skeptical about him. I guess he just shares too much resemblance to too many other guys who've failed to live up to expectations. He has a high ceiling, but also a really low floor of flaming out in the upper minors... Ervin increasing his batting average ~40 points as he moves up a level is indeed a big task. Things like that happen, though. I think Ervin has the talent. The peripheral numbers don't suggest a guy who's overmatched. He's put up a ~.270 BABIP for the past couple of years, worse than I think we'd expect from a guy like him. I don't know what his problem is, or what the solution is, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. The issue with Ervin (to me) is that he has never been any good in the minors. This is his third year of being unable to hit. He's floundered at every level. There's no reason to expect him to improve as he moves farther up the food chain. Is it possible? Of course, but he's 24 and been lousy at A, A+ and now AA. B/c of his tools and the fact that he hasn't been completely miserable in AA keeps him in the top 20ish prospects. That's about it though.
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