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Post by The Duke on Jul 3, 2016 9:47:39 GMT -5
Aristides Aquino went 2-3, HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, and 2 outfield assists last night. After a rather meh April and May he destroyed the ball in June. 22 in High A he missed some time at 20-21 with injuries, but he's one of the toolsiest prospects in our system. .287/.346/.488 on the year with 10 HR in the pitcher friendly FSL. 10 HR, 14 2B and 7 3B in a league that supresses power.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 8, 2016 10:07:01 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/Baseball America released its midseason top 100 list. Newly drafted players, rookies with 50+ innings or 130 ABs, or guys who were in the majors on June 21st were not eligible - in this case that applies to Cody Reed, Jose Peraza, Senzel, and Trammell. #31 - Amir Garrett - Athletic lefty dominated with a 1.75 ERA in 13 games at Double-A, earned promotion to Triple-A. #65 - Robert Stephenson - Stephenson’s climb to the big leagues has been a slow one, but he still flashes frontline potential. #68 - Jesse Winker - A wrist injury has toyed with Winker’s season for a second consecutive year. He can hit, but can he hit for power?
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Post by sloucho on Jul 11, 2016 15:07:48 GMT -5
Amir Garrett is very promising. I expect him to be in the rotation as early as next season.
Hopefully Stephenson will figure it out enough to be a top of the rotation guy.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 12, 2016 10:07:41 GMT -5
I'm still far less optimistic about Garrett than I am of Stephenson and Reed. Stephenson has the pitches, just not the control. Reed seemingly has the pitches and control, but needs to learn some stuff about better placement, better pitch selection. Garrett is the oldest of the three, with words like 'inconsistent' being used to describe his slider, with his changeup being called things like 'a work in progress'. Being a relatively inexperienced pitcher and relatively fresh arm seems like a double edged sword - he's got a fresh arm from not being used heavily, but limited information on how he can hold up for a full season. Optimism about Garrett is often based more on the fact that he has limited experience as a pitcher and working with secondary pitches, rather than those secondary pitches particularly impressing.
To some extent Stephenson suffers from prospect-fatigue (he's been around forever, highly ranked forever why can't this bum put things together and reach his top-of-the-rotation potential???), while Reed and Garrett have had major helium for the past year or two, skyrocketing onto and up top prospect lists.
In my opinion Garrett is still by far the most likely of the three to become a reliever, rather than the likely candidate to emerge as the best starter of the three.
That's not to say that Baseball America is wrong to rank Garrett #31 and Stephenson #65, but I don't think that determination means much of anything for either in the future. Garrett being ranked twice as high doesn't mean he's twice as good.
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Post by floydgator on Jul 12, 2016 14:42:52 GMT -5
I'm still far less optimistic about Garrett than I am of Stephenson and Reed. Stephenson has the pitches, just not the control. Reed seemingly has the pitches and control, but needs to learn some stuff about better placement, better pitch selection. Garrett is the oldest of the three, with words like 'inconsistent' being used to describe his slider, with his changeup being called things like 'a work in progress'. Being a relatively inexperienced pitcher and relatively fresh arm seems like a double edged sword - he's got a fresh arm from not being used heavily, but limited information on how he can hold up for a full season. Optimism about Garrett is often based more on the fact that he has limited experience as a pitcher and working with secondary pitches, rather than those secondary pitches particularly impressing. To some extent Stephenson suffers from prospect-fatigue (he's been around forever, highly ranked forever why can't this bum put things together and reach his top-of-the-rotation potential???), while Reed and Garrett have had major helium for the past year or two, skyrocketing onto and up top prospect lists. In my opinion Garrett is still by far the most likely of the three to become a reliever, rather than the likely candidate to emerge as the best starter of the three. That's not to say that Baseball America is wrong to rank Garrett #31 and Stephenson #65, but I don't think that determination means much of anything for either in the future. Garrett being ranked twice as high doesn't mean he's twice as good. I think you are underselling the fact that Garrett has been a significantly more successful pitcher in the minors than Stephenson has been and Garrett has improved each of the last 2 seasons while climbing the ladder where Stephenson has struggled to the point that he may have regressed. All this despite the stated inconsistency with Amir. To be fair, it seems Bob may have been rushed up the ladder too quickly. He had a half a season at low A and basically skipped high A altogether, then struggled pretty badly at AA. I don't blame the decisions on Stephenson that much other than we should have never had an affiliate in Bakersfield to begin with.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 12, 2016 15:32:43 GMT -5
I'm still far less optimistic about Garrett than I am of Stephenson and Reed. Stephenson has the pitches, just not the control. Reed seemingly has the pitches and control, but needs to learn some stuff about better placement, better pitch selection. Garrett is the oldest of the three, with words like 'inconsistent' being used to describe his slider, with his changeup being called things like 'a work in progress'. Being a relatively inexperienced pitcher and relatively fresh arm seems like a double edged sword - he's got a fresh arm from not being used heavily, but limited information on how he can hold up for a full season. Optimism about Garrett is often based more on the fact that he has limited experience as a pitcher and working with secondary pitches, rather than those secondary pitches particularly impressing. To some extent Stephenson suffers from prospect-fatigue (he's been around forever, highly ranked forever why can't this bum put things together and reach his top-of-the-rotation potential???), while Reed and Garrett have had major helium for the past year or two, skyrocketing onto and up top prospect lists. In my opinion Garrett is still by far the most likely of the three to become a reliever, rather than the likely candidate to emerge as the best starter of the three. That's not to say that Baseball America is wrong to rank Garrett #31 and Stephenson #65, but I don't think that determination means much of anything for either in the future. Garrett being ranked twice as high doesn't mean he's twice as good. I think you are underselling the fact that Garrett has been a significantly more successful pitcher in the minors than Stephenson has been and Garrett has improved each of the last 2 seasons while climbing the ladder where Stephenson has struggled to the point that he may have regressed. All this despite the stated inconsistency with Amir. To be fair, it seems Bob may have been rushed up the ladder too quickly. He had a half a season at low A and basically skipped high A altogether, then struggled pretty badly at AA. I don't blame the decisions on Stephenson that much other than we should have never had an affiliate in Bakersfield to begin with. Yeah, there are lots of ways to look at it. Stephenson was moved fairly quickly up the system at a young age starting at age 19 - once he found success at a level they'd promote him to the next, until he reached AA as a 20 year old and started having some problems. 7 games in Billings, 22 starts in Dayton, 4 games in Bakersfield (in which he was dominant), then AA. If they were concerned with minor league numbers they would've left Stephenson in Bakersfield for a year. It's not like Stephenson is the most aggressively promoted highschool pitcher around, but I'd say he's been more aggressively promoted than some top prospects. Garrett got over a full year in Dayton, a full year in Daytona, then reached AA at a 24 year old whose options years are ticking down. If he's ever been on anything resembling a fast track, he just got on it this year. He hasn't faced an aggressive (too fast?) promotion in his whole professional career. When Stephenson has found success he's usually been promoted. When Garrett has found success he's usually been left to continue to be successful (including at AA this year), so he can focus on increasing his inning totals and pitch limit, and developing his secondary stuff. For that reason I don't place a great deal of importance in his indisputably better numbers. Put anybody at a level too easy for them and they'll do well. Cody Reed (and plenty of others, including Jumbo Diaz) is reminding us lately that there's only so much value you can put in minor league numbers, especially for guys with good fastballs. I guess what I'm getting at is that Garrett has put up good numbers against easy competition... but he faces concerns about his changeup and slider, against guys he can probably get out with his fastball. All three of Stephenson's pitchers are generally regarded as being superior to Garrett's, plus he's younger. Both of them require adjustments and improvements to become successful MLB starters, and I just think I'd bet heavier on the package Stephenson offers than Garrett. If prospects don't settle into MLB until age 25 or so, fine... that gives Stephenson 2 years, Garrett 1. Garrett's options situation also puts a much stricter deadline over when he needs to make these improvements by. I think Garrett is sorta getting by more as a thrower, while Stephenson, amidst these troubles, is working on getting past his problems by becoming more of a pitcher.
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Post by kinsm on Jul 12, 2016 16:41:14 GMT -5
Amir Garrett would have been moved just as quickly had he spent his entire youth focused on baseball rather than basketball.
There is no such thing as prospect-fatigue in the eyes of national sports writers.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 15, 2016 8:06:54 GMT -5
Robert Stephenson made Keith Law's midseason top 50 prospect list, but Amir Garrett didn't. *Shrug*
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 15, 2016 9:58:13 GMT -5
How about we chat about some Reds prospects who had positive first halves? (well, at this point - July 15 - maybe first half plus a few games)
2b Shed Long, 3b Nick Senzel, and OF Taylor Trammell, who I don't feel like writing anything about.
OF Jesse Winker, 22, AAA, .281 average and .375 OBP. 33 BB and 32 Ks. Obviously his power has left something to be desired, and he's now missed a little time with an injury (just recently being activated), but it's hard to be disappointed with his continued ability to reach base. AAA pitchers might have limited his power, but he certainly hasn't been overmatched there.
LHP Amir Garrett, 24, AA-AAA, everyone knows about him.
OF Phil Ervin, 24, AA, he turned 24 today. His .237 average remains low, but he continues to get on base (.346 OBP) with 9 HR and 26 SB. I know others think he's a disastrous #27 overall pick, but he does some things right - get on base, show SOME power, steal bases. Even if he becomes a 4th-5th outfielder I think he can have some value and help in several ways.
RHP Tyler Mahle, 21, AA. He continues to pitch well following a midseason promotion to AA, where fairly young for the level. 102 strikeouts in 107 IP, this year.
RHP Sal Romano, 22, AA. As a big power arm he used to get criticism for not striking guys out (why ISN'T he?), this year he's struck out 91 in 93 IPs. He's probably not a starter going forward, but increased strikeout totals and decreased walks are a big plus if he's going to become a reliever.
OF Scott Schebler, 25, AAA. After his demotion to AAA he got off to a slow start, but is now hitting .299 with a .354 OBP. 14 2b, 5 3b, 10 HR in 231 ABs, with 15 BB and 48 Ks, mostly playing CF (where he's not a good defender, but hey). Schebler only hit .241 in AAA last year, but at least he's figured out that current level. Brennan Boesch showed last year that AAA dominance doesn't necessarily mean MLB succeess, but hey, it looks like a step in the right direction. It would've been a disastrous year for Schebler if he hadn't made improvements at AAA at age 25. At this rate he'll probably return to the Reds later this season, possibly right after Bruce is traded to play every day.
RHP Tony Santillan, 19, Billings. 40 strikeouts in 29 IP. So far an extremely promising season for a guy with a great, but raw, arm. He'll probably rise as far as anybody up the system's rankings. I look forward to seeing how he does in full-season Dayton next year.
OF Aristides Aquino, 22, A+. .281 average, .341 OBP, 13 HR in 327 ABs for the toolshed. His 27 BBs and 73 Ks isn't great, but he's definitely shown better plate discipline than I expected. I thought his success in Billings was a fluke, but apparently not. Seemingly his struggles in Dayton were the fluke, perhaps related to his injury. I wouldn't bet very highly on Aquino ever even making the majors, but I'm a lot more impressed by him now than I was at the start of the season.
RHP Jonathan Crawford, 24. He's pitched 3 games in a rehab assignment without his arm falling off. The original key to the Alfredo Simon trade (before Suarez became the key), just by pitching off a mound again Crawford has impressed me. After missing almost two years with injuries I thought he was finished. Instead he's, at most, only sorta kinda mostly finished. Small chance he still becomes a useful bullpen arm, some day.
OF/1b Kyle Waldrop, 24, AAA. Now hitting .272 with a .314 OBP. He's not having a great year like 2014, but he's also not having a nightmarish year like 2015, where he hit .185 in AAA. He's seemingly put himself back into consideration as a future bench bat for the Reds, while a year ago he seemed more likely headed towards his release. Hey, that's an improvement.
1b Gavin LaValley, 21, A+. Now hitting .287 with a .350 OBP, after missing several weeks with an injury. He has 14 2bs, 5 HR, 16 BB, and 31 Ks in 157 ABs. He's one of the Reds' lesser-known but better hitting prospects, and has seemingly taken a step forward this year. As he's changed from a huge overweight linebacker to a slimmer, more athletic guy. At this rate he'll be a promising prospect to watch in AA next year, and the organization's top 1b prospect.
RHP Ian Kahaloa, 18, Billings. After spending a while in extended spring training, he's pitched 17 innings between Arizona and Billings, with 8 H, 3 BB, and 18 Ks. Like Santillan, I look forward to seeing his full season debut in Dayton next year.
OF Steve Selsky, 26, AAA. As a guy who needs to prove himself through performance (since his law skills don't help him much), he's had a great season by hitting .295 with a .377 OBP, with 8 HR. He probably deserves a more extended look as a bench bat, as a near-certain September call-up. If not sooner.
2b/3b/OF Tony Renda, 25, AA-AAA. Now hitting .318 with a .363 OBP on the season, mostly at AA. He has 17 BB, 28 K, and 16 SB on the year, and is looking like a decent contact hitter and utility player. Such guys might not be terribly valuable, but they're useful to fill out a roster.
RHP Jose Lopez, 22, A. After being drafted in 2014 coming off an arm injury he's arguably had a breakout year, striking out 104 in 100.1 in his full season debut. His numbers in Billings last year were good, too.
RHP Andrew Jordan, 18, Billings. Drafted last year, he's struck out 24 in 22.1 IPs over 5 starts in Billings. I look forward to his full season debut next year.
C Cassidy Brown, 21, Billings. The college catcher not named Chris Okey has hit pretty well, so far. Hitting .288 with a .413 OBP, 10 BB and 10 K through 52 ABs, a fairly promising start for the Columbus, OH native and 12th rounder. Obviously too many strikeouts, but an impressive number of walks for a guy likely to be otherwise forgotten behind Okey and Stephenson.
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Post by redskoolaiddrinker on Jul 15, 2016 21:42:01 GMT -5
RFM I love these type posts. Thanks for taking the time to write it and great synopsis.
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Post by sloucho on Jul 16, 2016 16:12:14 GMT -5
Shed Long is having a good year in Dayton. 20 years old. Maybe someone to watch.
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Post by kinsm on Jul 17, 2016 15:14:49 GMT -5
Sal Romano has no business being on a "good first half" post...
opponents are hitting .294 off him this season.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 18, 2016 21:35:03 GMT -5
Sal Romano has no business being on a "good first half" post... opponents are hitting .294 off him this season. Romano struck out 88 in 127 innings last year (9 in 23 innings after being promoted to AA), really low for such a power arm, in my opinion. So yeah, I consider 97 strikeouts in 98 innings at AA a relative success. There have long been suggestions that Romano's future was as a power reliever, but the main problem with that was his low strikeout rate. Moving to the bullpen only looks more likely now for Romano, but I think his chances of making the majors in that role have only increased. If a guy generally not expected to last as a starter has problems that makes it look like he should move to the bullpen, is that a bad first half? Eh. He's had his problems this year, but it hasn't been ugly or anything. Romano will probably move down the midseason rankings, perhaps a good ways, but I think he's largely done what he needed to remain relevant.
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 18, 2016 21:35:30 GMT -5
RFM I love these type posts. Thanks for taking the time to write it and great synopsis. Really? Thanks...
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Post by redsfanman on Jul 18, 2016 23:10:20 GMT -5
How about a look at Dayton and the Billings? Honestly I'm watching, and laughing at, the RNC, which doesn't attract my full attention.
The Dragons are 30-64 on the season, by far the worst record in the midwest league (the next worst team has 37 wins). Tyler Stephenson had been out for a while, most of the hitters had been bad, the pitching had been pretty terrible. RHP Tanner Rainey and RHP Ty Boyles have been terrible. At least they're doing better lately, with some help.
RHP Jose Lopez - 22 - Definitely the biggest success story of Dayton's pitching staff, he's put up a 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 102.2 IP. 28 BB and 106 K. He's in his first season in full-season ball, after injuries pushed him to the 6th round of the 2014 draft. So far he's looking like a bargain.
RHP Tanner Rainey - 23 - The #71 pick in 2015 and a then-college senior, he's put up a 5.79 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP this year, with 46 BB and 79 K in 73 IP. Pretty ugly, especially for a 23 year old in low A ball. Some saw him as a guy who might be fast tracked as a reliever, but currently he's looking like a guy whose career might collapse in the lowest levels of the minors. Currently the Reds' #29 prospect according to MLBPipeline, but likely out of the top 30 with the upcoming update.
RHP Sarkis Ohanian - 22 - Last year's 9th round pick, he's pitched 21 innings out of the bullpen with 6 H, 7 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 36 K. 0.67 WHIP. If you're going to pitch in relief at least do well, and he has.
RHP Ty Boyles - 20 - He's pitched 71 innings with a 5.45 ERA, 79 H, 29 BB, and 52 Ks. 1.52 WHIP. The 2013 11th round pick did pretty well last year in Billings, and is way too young to give up on or anything. Still, worse than he'd like.
1b James Vasquez - 23 - He was assigned to the Arizona Reds last year after being drafted in the 25th round, and almost won that league's triple crown. His full season debut has been, at best, mediocre. Hitting .231 with a .317 OBP. 10 HR, 33 BB, 58 K in 307 ABs. At this point he seems closer to his release than future success.
SS Luis Gonzalez - 21 (but turns 22 later this week) - The slick-fielding middle infielder is only hitting worse in his second year in Dayton, with a .228 average and .265 OBP. 13 BB and 56 K in 237 ABs. He's still young, but there's not much else to be excited about.
3b/2b Brantley Bell - 21 - Last year's 11th round pick, he had a promising debut last year in Billings, but this season has been disastrous. He's hit .236 with a .285 OBP. 16 BB, 68 K, 0 HR. Ouch. I hoped he'd build on last year, but nope.
2b Shed Long - 20 (turns 21 in a month) - He's having a solid year, similar to his numbers at the same level last year. The 2013 12th round pick has hit .273 with a .363 OBP. He's leading the team with 40 BBs... and with 79 Ks. He has 22 2b, 10 HR, and 14 SB in 310 ABs. I'm kinda surprised he hasn't already been promoted to Daytona.
C Tyler Stephenson - 19 - The former first round pick hasn't hit great, and has missed a bunch of time with a minor injury, but there's still plenty of reason for optimism. Since starting a rehab assignment he's hit 2 of his 3 HRs, and now he's back on Dayton's roster. He's hit .208 with a .282 OBP, and is almost certain to return to Dayton last year. That's fine, we all always knew he'd be a long term project. He's still one of the most interesting guys on the team (up there with Long, Lopez, Senzel, and Okey).
C Chris Okey - 21 - Now 10/40 with 3 HR, 5 BB, 9 K, .333 OBP since being promoted to Dayton. Small samples, but plenty of good signs there. I can only assume his catching has been satisfactory. Stephenson and Okey now give the Dragons quite a tandem. And they're probably the only catchers in the system who should be used as designated hitters.
3b Nick Senzel - 21 - 15/54 with 6 2b, 8 BB, and 10 Ks (.278 average, .391 OBP) since being promoted to Dayton. He actually went 4/5 tonight (not yet added to Dayton's stats) to raise his average to .322, and he hit his first professional homerun (and another boring double). So far so good.
Billings Mustangs (18-10) - They have the best record in the Pioneer league.
As I said before, Santillian and Kahaloa have pitched well.
RHP Andrew Jordan - 18 (turns 19 in a couple weeks) - He's started 5 games, pitching 22.1 innings with 17 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, and 24 Ks. A 2.42 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He also pitched well last year in Arizona, so a very good start to the career for the kid, who was a 13th round pick last year.
RHP Zac Correll - 20 - 14.2 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 18 K. 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP. The 2014 13th round pick has pitched fairly well.
RHP Patrick Riehl - 22 - 16.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 19 K. 3.24 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. A 26th round senior sign from this year, off to a good start.
OF Daniel Sweet - 21 - In 41 ABs the switch hitter has put up a .317 average and .500 OBP, thanks to 16 BB and 8 Ks. He was the 29th round pick, and is probably more an advanced college hitter than he is a good one, but hey, it's hard to argue with his production so far.
CF Miles Gordon - 18 - The 2015 4th round pick is doing really well, hitting .275 with a .385 OBP in 51 ABs after struggling in Arizona last year. My impression is that he's a strong defensive CF, but he's played the corners a bunch on a team with several CFs (notably Trammell). He has 9 BB and 12 Ks this season, an improvement over last year's ratio of 7-26.
2b/SS Alejo Lopez - 20 - A 27th round pick in 2015, he's hit .299 with a .357 OBP. He has 6 BB and 5 Ks in 77 ABs, so he's clearly pretty aggressive and making lots of contact. That's better than striking out a lot...
C Cassidy Brown - 21 - 12th round draft pick, hitting .291 with a .418 OBP. 11 BB, 11 K in 55 AB.
CF Taylor Trammell - 18 - The kid is hitting .314 (27/86) with a .379 OBP. 8 BB, 18 K, 10 SB in 86 ABs. Not a perfect season with so many strikeouts, but about as good as we probably could've hoped for, so far. The Pioneer League can be tough for high schoolers, but he's showing an ability to take walks, make contact, and reach base.
In Arizona Reds news, 18 year old Jake Turnbull is now listed on the roster as a SS, although his only game this year was at his old position of catcher. If he, like Shed Long, is becoming a middle infielder, well, that's interesting.
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