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Post by floydgator on Aug 26, 2016 8:41:50 GMT -5
That's a fair point, but it doesn't seem like they have fast tracking him in mind with this progression. I kind of doubt (though I don't know) that the thought process was "hey, let's send him to Dayton b/c he shouldn't be playing an extra 10 games if Daytona makes the playoffs." At this point, a couple of weeks at high A won't make much difference, but it seems like he should have been promoted a month ago. Maybe that would have increased his chances of starting '17 at AA. Can he play in the AFL? I know he has had a long year, but on the off chance they see him spending most of 2018 in the bigs, I would think you would want to give him the offseason before that year off rather than this one. Why does he need to start next year in AA? Eugenio Suarez has 4 years of team control, the idea that Senzel should be in the bigs in '18 is quite frankly ridiculous IMHO. He doesn't necessarily NEED to do anything. He could start at A+ and burn through all the higher levels in 1 season. He could start at A+, struggle and need the whole season there. He could start at AA, need a full season there and start the next at AAA. A lot of things could happen. I would have thought we drafted Senzel at #2, in part, b/c he is an advanced prospect. He's showed that already. I would think that getting him (and any prospect, really) to a level where he faces a reasonable challenge would be the goal and plan. It's not a big deal here given the timing. It's a few weeks. Probably meaningless. Suarez is completely irrelevant. If he is a consideration regarding Senzel, we drafted the wrong guy. Suarez isn't good enough to block anybody and certainly not a guy you expect to be one of the cornerstones of your franchise. He's mediocre to, maybe, slightly above average (as a hitter). Even if he improves to better than that, he's trade bait.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 26, 2016 10:18:34 GMT -5
Suarez can competently hold down 3b until Senzel is ready, but I don't think he should worry about what comes next until Senzel is tearing up AA or AAA. Maybe that comes in 2017, maybe it comes in 2018. But either way, I don't factor Suarez at all into what's best for Senzel's development.
Suarez's future is largely dependent on others. I think, defensively, he could handle 3b, SS, 2b, or either outfield corner. Not well, but at least passably. Continued improvement/development of his bat is important. What happens with Senzel? What happens with Herrera? What happens with Peraza? What happens with Blandino? These are the questions totally outside of Suarez's control that decides Suarez's future role, more even than his own performance. Bench/utility role? Trade? Future position? There are so many unknowns factoring into Suarez's future that it's hard to even venture an educated guess, I feel.
Frankly I think anybody who feels that they're making a serious prediction of what Suarez's future holds is either mistaken or being deceitful. He's one of the hardest guys on the team to predict, as it's far more complicated than an 'if, then' or 'yes or no' question. At 25 he's just starting to enter his prime. He's already established himself as a major league player, which is usually the biggest question facing guys his age (see Schebler, Peraza, Herrera, Winker, and countless others). Suarez is in his third MLB season, but is about to finish his first full season. This year he's made some progress in taking walks, although he's had less luck on BABIP than last year. Personally I think 2017 is big on determining where he goes from here, seeing what sort of progress (if any) he continues to make as a big league regular in his prime. I wouldn't bet heavily on a significant improvement in defense, improved OBP, or increased homerun totals... but all seem possible, and would be very relevant to speculation regarding his future.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 26, 2016 10:59:54 GMT -5
Some interesting things happened last night:
-Taylor Trammell, 18, hit his first homerun in Billings. He's now hitting .304 with a .378 OBP.
-Robert Stephenson rebounded from one of his worst professional starts with a fairly strong one, pitching 6 innings with 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 7 K.
-Sal Romano had another strong start, 6 innings with 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K.
September call-ups are coming soon. AA Pensacola is headed to the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see how that factors into call-ups of guys on the 40 man roster. Reliever and waiver claim Abel De Los Santos is on the Reds' 40 man roster and has been dominant in AA (and has MLB experience), it'll be interesting to see if (or when) he gets a September call-up. Or if he does after Pensacola's postseason. Another long shot is Sal Romano, also on the 40 man roster. Romano not yet reaching Louisville makes him a longshot, but he's pitched so well in the second half. He's probably approaching an inning limit, but letting him make a few bullpen appearances in September could be interesting.
A September bullpen including Iglesias, Lorenzen, Finnegan, Sal Romano, and one of Stephenson/Reed/Garrett could be pretty darn interesting.
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Post by schellis on Aug 26, 2016 11:38:48 GMT -5
That's a fair point, but it doesn't seem like they have fast tracking him in mind with this progression. I kind of doubt (though I don't know) that the thought process was "hey, let's send him to Dayton b/c he shouldn't be playing an extra 10 games if Daytona makes the playoffs." At this point, a couple of weeks at high A won't make much difference, but it seems like he should have been promoted a month ago. Maybe that would have increased his chances of starting '17 at AA. Can he play in the AFL? I know he has had a long year, but on the off chance they see him spending most of 2018 in the bigs, I would think you would want to give him the offseason before that year off rather than this one. Why does he need to start next year in AA? Eugenio Suarez has 4 years of team control, the idea that Senzel should be in the bigs in '18 is quite frankly ridiculous IMHO. If Senzel isn't at least knocking on the door by 2018, then he's going to be something of a disappointment. I suspect this time next year he'll have people thinking about calling him up. Saurez is a utility infielder with a solid bat he doesn't field well enough to be counted on.
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Post by floydgator on Aug 26, 2016 13:17:42 GMT -5
Some interesting things happened last night: -Taylor Trammell, 18, hit his first homerun in Billings. He's now hitting .304 with a .378 OBP. -Robert Stephenson rebounded from one of his worst professional starts with a fairly strong one, pitching 6 innings with 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 7 K. -Sal Romano had another strong start, 6 innings with 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. September call-ups are coming soon. AA Pensacola is headed to the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see how that factors into call-ups of guys on the 40 man roster. Reliever and waiver claim Abel De Los Santos is on the Reds' 40 man roster and has been dominant in AA (and has MLB experience), it'll be interesting to see if (or when) he gets a September call-up. Or if he does after Pensacola's postseason. Another long shot is Sal Romano, also on the 40 man roster. Romano not yet reaching Louisville makes him a longshot, but he's pitched so well in the second half. He's probably approaching an inning limit, but letting him make a few bullpen appearances in September could be interesting. A September bullpen including Iglesias, Lorenzen, Finnegan, Sal Romano, and one of Stephenson/Reed/Garrett could be pretty darn interesting. Garrett starts for Louisville tonight. I assume it is his last AAA start of the season. (Admittedly, I don't know when their season ends so it could be his last start anyway.)
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Post by floydgator on Aug 26, 2016 13:18:20 GMT -5
Also, Trammell has been a smashing success in his debut. Nice to see at least our first 2 picks off to really good starts.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 26, 2016 14:07:24 GMT -5
Trammell's performance is, perhaps, more impressive to me than Senzel. I had high expectations of Senzel and his readiness after his college success. Heck, I think he could've played at a level higher than Dayton and done fine. I knew Trammell had the skills to be successful, but I didn't really expect him to hit like he has, at this point. I thought he was more of a project, if Trammell had sucked in his pro debut I wouldn't have been terribly surprised. Instead the numbers make him look like a better baseball player than advertised.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 26, 2016 15:22:44 GMT -5
Why does he need to start next year in AA? Eugenio Suarez has 4 years of team control, the idea that Senzel should be in the bigs in '18 is quite frankly ridiculous IMHO. If Senzel isn't at least knocking on the door by 2018, then he's going to be something of a disappointment. I suspect this time next year he'll have people thinking about calling him up. Saurez is a utility infielder with a solid bat he doesn't field well enough to be counted on. Why? Why would he be a disappointment? He'd be one of the youngest players in the majors. The average player doesn't debut until age 25. Let him develop as he should. Suarez's defense is rated above average by UZR and DRS and this is his first season playing 3rd....he's fine - he could even be a competent #7 hitter on a contender (something people on here keep saying they are going to be soon).
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Post by schellis on Aug 27, 2016 9:43:55 GMT -5
Senzel was deemed a advanced college hitter, someone that should be ready before the league average and be one of those younger players at the major league level. The Reds drafted him thinking he'd move quickly. He'd be a disappointment if he wasn't playing well in AAA or even AA by this point next year, that isn't the same as saying he's a bust though. I see him starting in AA next year, if he's hitting well promotion to AAA around mid-season and call up in September.
I think Saurez is below average to average across the board. To me he's a future bench/utility player depending on what Senzel, Peraza, Herrera bring to the table.
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Post by The Duke on Aug 27, 2016 10:15:15 GMT -5
If you think Senzel is ready for a more challenging environment, that's why you start him in AA vs High A. You want him to be challenged, but not over matched. Conversely, you don't want it to be not challenging enough. If they think he would completely mash High A from the start of next year, that's why you would start him in AA. If they thought he'd have nothing to gain by playing in Low A anymore, he'd be in Daytona now. After playing this year in Tennessee, Montana, Ohio, and he'll have fall instructionals or the AFL in Arizona, they may want to give him a little more stability. You can also argue there are things he can still work on in Dayton as well.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 27, 2016 18:24:06 GMT -5
Senzel was deemed a advanced college hitter, someone that should be ready before the league average and be one of those younger players at the major league level. The Reds drafted him thinking he'd move quickly. He'd be a disappointment if he wasn't playing well in AAA or even AA by this point next year, that isn't the same as saying he's a bust though. I see him starting in AA next year, if he's hitting well promotion to AAA around mid-season and call up in September. I think Saurez is below average to average across the board. To me he's a future bench/utility player depending on what Senzel, Peraza, Herrera bring to the table. NO, that is simply not true, the average "advanced" college hitter still spends 3+ years in the minors. He has no business being in the majors next season unless he's hitting .400 in the minors.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 27, 2016 18:26:30 GMT -5
He doesn't even turn 22 till next June, calm down people.
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Post by floydgator on Aug 29, 2016 13:51:32 GMT -5
Senzel was deemed a advanced college hitter, someone that should be ready before the league average and be one of those younger players at the major league level. The Reds drafted him thinking he'd move quickly. He'd be a disappointment if he wasn't playing well in AAA or even AA by this point next year, that isn't the same as saying he's a bust though. I see him starting in AA next year, if he's hitting well promotion to AAA around mid-season and call up in September. I think Saurez is below average to average across the board. To me he's a future bench/utility player depending on what Senzel, Peraza, Herrera bring to the table. NO, that is simply not true, the average "advanced" college hitter still spends 3+ years in the minors. He has no business being in the majors next season unless he's hitting .400 in the minors. Except he's not the "average" advanced college hitter. He's the #2 pick in the draft. As schellis noted, it's not that he would be a bust or that it would make any long term difference. It would be a disappointment if he isn't at least in AA by the end of next season, and playing well.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 31, 2016 12:30:00 GMT -5
So, I felt like looking at how some of the prospects in the upper minors have been doing in the second half...
OF Phil Ervin, 24, has hit .254 with a .384 OBP in the second half, with a .791 OBP. Obviously his batting average remains lower than you'd like to see, but his OBP has moved from good to pretty darn impressive. On the season he's hitting .239 with a .360 OBP, 12 HR, 21 2b, and 35 SB. He's played a similar number of games in each half (58 vs 59), but has increased his BB totals (27 vs 35) and decreased his strikeout totals (56 vs 29). It'll be interesting to see how he does in Louisville next year.
INF Alex Blandino, 23, after hitting .189 in the first half he's now hit .263 in the second, particularly due to his big August (.299 average). He's put up a .351 OBP in the second half. At this same time his other numbers - HR, 2b, 3b, BB, K - are nearly identical in both halves. He now has a .301 BABIP on the season, I assume it was really low in the first half and really high in the second, with that being the primary source of his recent improvement.
RHP Sal Romano, 22, remains on a roll in AA, with yet another strong 8 inning outing yesterday. He's already on the 40 man roster. Obviously he's a long shot for a September call-up - and will almost certainly stick with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos through their playoff run - but it'd be interesting to see him debut in September. I mean, often those promotions are given out to reward guys who played well, and what more could Romano have done? A few bullpen outings with the Reds might help him to better identify things to work on for next year, when he'll likely start the season in Louisville's rotation. I think it's fair to call this a breakout season for Romano.
RHP Jackson Stephens, 22, has been a little worse in AA in the second half than the first, with a 3.77 ERA, .274 BAA, and 1.38 WHIP, raising his season numbers to a 3.41 ERA, .252 BAA, and 1.24 WHIP. He's given up 6 homers in the second half after only one in the first half. Nevertheless he's taken a step forward, putting together arguably his best season at a young age in AA. Headed for AAA.
RHP Nick Travieso, 22, after a 4.91 ERA in the first half he's put up a 2.61 ERA in 8 starts in the second for AA Pensacola. His peripheral numbers haven't equally improved, and his strikeout rate remains down, but hey. He's finally got his season ERA down under 4, at 3.99. He's dealt with minor injuries, hopefully that's the cause of his problems. It'll be interesting to see if he returns to AA next season, or gets promoted to AAA.
RHP Tyler Mahle, 21, has had an ugly month of August (6.17 ERA in 5 starts) and has a mildly disappointing 4.39 ERA after 13 starts since being promoted to AA. Pretty much a sure thing to head back to AA next season.
OF Jesse Winker, 23, is not yet on the 40 man roster, but needs to be added this winter anyway. He's hitting .319 with a .405 OBP in the second half for Louisville. On the season he's at .306/.397. Hopefully his OBP reaches an even .400 before his promotion. Unfortunately he's lost a popular talking point, that he walks more than he strikes out, with 55 BB and 59 K. 3 HRs in 99 games and 359 ABs, among 108 hits, is the main thing that'll probably be held against him, though. I wonder how much playing time he'll get with hot hitting Schebler and popular All Star Duvall competing for playing time.
INF/OF Tony Renda, 25, has a modest 5 game hitting streak since returning to Louisville. He's a sure thing call-up in a few days.
OF Kyle Waldrop, 24, has spent time on the DL, but is only hitting .224 with a .267 OBP in the second half, in 107 ABs. He's a lefty who's hitting .293 against AAA LHPs this season, vs .237 against RHPs. He's also a likely September call-up, but I seriously doubt he'll play much. His poor performance hasn't helped his long shot case for playing time.
OF Steve Selsky, 27, is still on a rehab assignment in the Arizona Rooke League, after missing nearly a month. Being on the 40 man roster also makes him likely of a September call-up, but like Waldrop I doubt he'll get much playing time.
2b Dilson Herrera, 22, has started 8 games at 2b among the 17 he played for the Louisville Bats. After being limited to pinch hitting for about a week, seemingly due to shoulder concerns, he's started the last 8 games he's played, at 2b or DH. On the season between Louisville and Las Vegas (Mets AAA affiliate) he's now hit .275 with a .330 OBP and 15 HR in 404 ABs. His performance in a small sample size for Louisville resembles his season numbers. We'll probably see him called up in a few days, but it'll be interesting to see how much or how little he plays.
RHP Robert Stephenson, 23. Without question he's having an ugly second half. Conventional wisdom may suggest that he doesn't deserve a September call-up, but I'd still like them to promote him. He's more likely to learn something by being around the MLB players and coaches than by going home. What's most important isn't his September performance, it's that they do everything they can to set him up for a strong 2017.
LHP Cody Reed, 23. Who knows what his recent back problem means for him in September?
LHP Amir Garrett, 24. His BB rate in AAA is quietly almost as bad as Stephenson's, with 30 BB in 62.1 IPs. Between both levels he's walked 58 in 139.1 IPs this year. He's given up hits and homeruns at a lower rate than Stephenson, but who knows if that continues in the majors... either way, I look forward to seeing him in September. Like Stephenson and Reed, he can learn a lot from the coaches and (relative) veterans.
RHP Keyvius Sampson, 25, he'll be back with the Reds shortly. He's had a really impressive year in AAA, while his performance with the Reds has been, at least, much improved over last year's.
Bonus: SS Jose Peraza, 22, is now hitting .421 in 59 PAs in the second half, with an unsustainable .449 BABIP. He has yet to draw a walk and has only struck out 6 times. On the season he's now hitting .342 with a .370 OBP in games he starts. Again, obviously unsustainable, but it's nice to get off to a strong start. Overall he's currently hitting .325 on the season.
OF Scott Schebler, 25, is now hitting .266 with a .330 OBP and 6 HR in 103 PAs since being called up after the Jay Bruce trade. That's much better than he did earlier in the season, when he hit .188/.246 before being demoted to Louisville. Surely it's a matter of a swing in BABIP? Actually he had a low .256 BABIP in the first half, and retains a low .288 BABIP in the second. His relative second half success includes the week or two long slump he went into shortly after being called back up, but he's been really hot for the past week+. -Those guys were both acquired for someone hitting .214 with a .295 OBP on the season.
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Post by floydgator on Aug 31, 2016 17:05:35 GMT -5
It should be noted that Winker isn't racking up doubles either. It's not just HRs, he's not hitting for any kind of power at all. That will have to change.
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