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Post by redsfanman on Aug 12, 2016 11:10:38 GMT -5
Ismael Guillon was pretty highly regarded by the Reds a few years ago, then he had an ugly 2014 and missed 2015 entirely. These days I just don't know what to make of him. He's definitely having great success this year in Daytona, striking out 105 in 85.1 IPs with 44 H and 35 BBs. On the other hand, at 24 he's old for the league. Is he a 'late bloomer' or just an older guy finding success against younger kids? I don't know.
The Reds have to decide this winter whether or not to add him to the 40 man roster, or risk losing him, as a lefty, to the Rule 5 draft. The numbers are good, but I have no idea what scouts are saying. Part of me feels that if the scouting reports were as promising as the numbers he'd already be in AA. Maybe he'll be protected, maybe he won't, but I don't feel like most of the information relevant to making that decision is even available to me. If scouting reports are good, maybe some team will gamble on him as a LOOGY in the Rule 5 draft. If scouting reports are bad, nobody'd be interested in a 24 year old with success in advanced A ball.
I'd be interested in Duke's thoughts about Ismael Guillon, if he's seen him this season.
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Post by sloucho on Aug 12, 2016 15:52:52 GMT -5
Ismael Guillon was pretty highly regarded by the Reds a few years ago, then he had an ugly 2014 and missed 2015 entirely. These days I just don't know what to make of him. He's definitely having great success this year in Daytona, striking out 105 in 85.1 IPs with 44 H and 35 BBs. On the other hand, at 24 he's old for the league. Is he a 'late bloomer' or just an older guy finding success against younger kids? I don't know. The Reds have to decide this winter whether or not to add him to the 40 man roster, or risk losing him, as a lefty, to the Rule 5 draft. The numbers are good, but I have no idea what scouts are saying. Part of me feels that if the scouting reports were as promising as the numbers he'd already be in AA. Maybe he'll be protected, maybe he won't, but I don't feel like most of the information relevant to making that decision is even available to me. If scouting reports are good, maybe some team will gamble on him as a LOOGY in the Rule 5 draft. If scouting reports are bad, nobody'd be interested in a 24 year old with success in advanced A ball. I'd be interested in Duke's thoughts about Ismael Guillon, if he's seen him this season. Some good points. I'm not familiar with Rule 5 stuff, but I would say that a lot of left-handers tend to develop a little later. Also, since he is coming back from an injury, you have to take into account that is what has stunted his development. If he doesn't make the club that he is picked up by for the full season, he has to return him if he doesn't make the ML roster. That's about all I know about the Rule 5. I don't think he is a ML ready pitcher, but like I said, he is a lefty, and left-handers tend to pick up command after age 25. This is pretty well documented. He could be picked up by a very bad team and stashed in the bullpen until he is given a chance to start like you said. Depends on if a team has an eye on him. As a LOOGY, he could make his way immediately with his stuff like you said. So, that may be a reason to protect him. He is definitely on a AA level given his dominance this year a high-A, but it has come very recently, as I pointed out. So, he would have a very good chance of getting claimed based on his dominance and the fact that he is a lefty. That is why they should move him up as soon as possible to see if he can maintain the dominance on the AA level. More than any other player in the Reds system, you can make a case that they need him to pitch in AA before the end of their season. If the Reds scouts think he is a lost cause at this point, then so be it. I just noticed he hasn't been on the MLB pipeline, and if he were able to pitch fully healthy the last few seasons, he may be one of our top prospects. Who knows? If he keeps up an ability to dominate in AA, he could be in AAA by maybe the middle of or late next year at age 25 and be in the mix to break camp by 2018, being optimistic. So his value is very high to risk. If he can keep it up in AA, I think maybe you put him on the 40-man. You don't give up on guys who can dominate for 6-7 innings consistently. Just because he is a little behind in his development, doesn't mean he hasn't recently found something that has enabled him to become a ML pitcher in the near future. In this case, it might be health. It depends on the guys that they will put on the 40 man. Tough decision. He is going to go through a game of "chicken" I guess, is how it's going to play out. Maybe keeping him in A ball might keep him from getting drafted. Maybe that's why he hasn't been promoted. But, again, his dominance has come recently, so we will see. I will be following his progress the rest of the minor league season very closely.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 12, 2016 15:56:55 GMT -5
Rule 5 circumstances have nothing to do with Guillon, he qualifies as a six year minor league FA 5 days after the world series ends unless his agent and the Reds added a year to his PDC since he missed a year (I find that highly doubtful).
So, if he's added, it'll be to keep him from becoming a FA not to protect him.
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Post by sloucho on Aug 12, 2016 16:03:47 GMT -5
Rule 5 circumstances have nothing to do with Guillon, he qualifies as a six year minor league FA 5 days after the world series ends unless his agent and the Reds added a year to his PDC since he missed a year (I find that highly doubtful). So, if he's added, it'll be to keep him from becoming a FA not to protect him. Like I said, I have no idea about the financial side of the game. I just know stats, and he has been lighting it up. Why wouldn't the re-sign him? I think he would be a bargain compared to some of the crap pitchers down there. He just happens to be 24. Mella isn't putting up those kind of numbers and he is in the pipeline, and a righty.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 19, 2016 10:34:39 GMT -5
Alex Blandino has quietly recovered a bit from what looked like a nightmare-ish career jeopardizing season, to just looking like a bad season, predominantly based on a horrendous first half. He hit .167 in April and .162 in June, but he's now hit .352 in August with a .435 OBP. He finished the first half with an embarrassing .189 average and .289 OBP (.604 OPS), but now has a .271 average and .354 OBP (.735 OPS) in the second half.
On the season he's hitting .227 with a .324 OBP in 335 ABs. 14 2b, 8 HR, 8 SB. 43 BB and 102 K.
Obviously that's not a good line for the season, but it's back to being similar to what he put up in his 30 game AA debut last season. In the second half he's done well, rather than continuing to spiral out of control. He turns 24 in November, and will likely return to AA next season (although maybe they want to more aggressively promote him to AAA based on this second half). Hopefully he gets off to a hot start in 2017.
He's started 56 games at 2b, 20 at 3b, and 11 at SS.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 23, 2016 10:31:28 GMT -5
RHP Sal Romano has been on something of a roll lately, in AA. Through his last 10 starts (easily accessible number) he's pitched 61.1 innings with a 2.20 ERA. 49 H, 9 BB, 57 K. He had a 4.34 ERA in the first half with a .302 BAA and 1.54 WHIP... in the second half his ERA is down to 2.34, BAA is down to .229, and WHIP is down to 1.01. His most recent start, on August 20th, was probably the best of his career - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K.
On the season he has a 3.64 ERA, 32 BB and 127 Ks in 136 IPs, with 10 HR, a .268 BAA, and 1.29 WHIP.
Sal Romano is having, without question, the best season of his career, as a 22 year old in AA. His improvements in the second half is, in my opinion, pretty darn impressive. For a young guy with good velocity, plenty of upside, and (formerly) unrefined raw skills, I think we should be impressed. Going into the season he faced concerns about two few strikeouts and too many walks, which has seemingly changed this year.
MLBPipeline currently ranks him as the #17 prospect, but should be due to move up a few spots this winter. I think he's jumped ahead of Rookie Davis, Keury Mella, and Nick Travieso, and maybe even Santillan (even though that kid is just a high upside project, who knows where he gets ranked).
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 23, 2016 10:40:10 GMT -5
CF Taylor Trammell is also doing well. He's now hitting .304 with a .376 OBP in Billings. He has yet to hit a professional homerun (despite 50 grade power according to MLBPipeline) but he has 18 BB, 44 K, and 21 SB in 181 ABs. In my opinion he's done a pretty darn impressive job of making contact and getting on base for an 18 year old in Billings - high schoolers are often sent to the Arizona League instead, so it was a somewhat aggressive assignment.
He hit .268 in June, .298 in July, and .339 so far in August.
Trammell seems ready for a full season debut next year in Dayton.
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Post by The Duke on Aug 23, 2016 10:51:33 GMT -5
CF Taylor Trammell is also doing well. He's now hitting .304 with a .376 OBP in Billings. He has yet to hit a professional homerun (despite 50 grade power according to MLBPipeline) but he has 18 BB, 44 K, and 21 SB in 181 ABs. In my opinion he's done a pretty darn impressive job of making contact and getting on base for an 18 year old in Billings - high schoolers are often sent to the Arizona League instead, so it was a somewhat aggressive assignment. He hit .268 in June, .298 in July, and .339 so far in August. Trammell seems ready for a full season debut next year in Dayton. Trammell is already 6'2" 195 lbs and was a high profile RB recruit in football. The power will come. He's only 18 and it's his first experience with wood bats and the first time in his life he has focused on one sport. RHP Sal Romano has been on something of a roll lately, in AA. Through his last 10 starts (easily accessible number) he's pitched 61.1 innings with a 2.20 ERA. 49 H, 9 BB, 57 K. He had a 4.34 ERA in the first half with a .302 BAA and 1.54 WHIP... in the second half his ERA is down to 2.34, BAA is down to .229, and WHIP is down to 1.01. His most recent start, on August 20th, was probably the best of his career - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K. On the season he has a 3.64 ERA, 32 BB and 127 Ks in 136 IPs, with 10 HR, a .268 BAA, and 1.29 WHIP. Sal Romano is having, without question, the best season of his career, as a 22 year old in AA. His improvements in the second half is, in my opinion, pretty darn impressive. For a young guy with good velocity, plenty of upside, and (formerly) unrefined raw skills, I think we should be impressed. Going into the season he faced concerns about two few strikeouts and too many walks, which has seemingly changed this year. MLBPipeline currently ranks him as the #17 prospect, but should be due to move up a few spots this winter. I think he's jumped ahead of Rookie Davis, Keury Mella, and Nick Travieso, and maybe even Santillan (even though that kid is just a high upside project, who knows where he gets ranked). Romano is built like an innings eating #4 starter. Keeping the hits down and very good walk rate with his career high K rate is very promising. He could be a flame throwing reliever (he's hit 99 on the gun) but I think the Reds need that guy who can go out and throw 220 IP with a solid ERA. He may never be a star, but he'll definitely go to AAA next year and I'll be surprised if he doesn't get a real shot at starting.
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Post by grizzlylcs on Aug 23, 2016 11:16:13 GMT -5
CF Taylor Trammell is also doing well. He's now hitting .304 with a .376 OBP in Billings. He has yet to hit a professional homerun (despite 50 grade power according to MLBPipeline) but he has 18 BB, 44 K, and 21 SB in 181 ABs. In my opinion he's done a pretty darn impressive job of making contact and getting on base for an 18 year old in Billings - high schoolers are often sent to the Arizona League instead, so it was a somewhat aggressive assignment. He hit .268 in June, .298 in July, and .339 so far in August. Trammell seems ready for a full season debut next year in Dayton. Trammell is already 6'2" 195 lbs and was a high profile RB recruit in football. The power will come. He's only 18 and it's his first experience with wood bats and the first time in his life he has focused on one sport. RHP Sal Romano has been on something of a roll lately, in AA. Through his last 10 starts (easily accessible number) he's pitched 61.1 innings with a 2.20 ERA. 49 H, 9 BB, 57 K. He had a 4.34 ERA in the first half with a .302 BAA and 1.54 WHIP... in the second half his ERA is down to 2.34, BAA is down to .229, and WHIP is down to 1.01. His most recent start, on August 20th, was probably the best of his career - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K. On the season he has a 3.64 ERA, 32 BB and 127 Ks in 136 IPs, with 10 HR, a .268 BAA, and 1.29 WHIP. Sal Romano is having, without question, the best season of his career, as a 22 year old in AA. His improvements in the second half is, in my opinion, pretty darn impressive. For a young guy with good velocity, plenty of upside, and (formerly) unrefined raw skills, I think we should be impressed. Going into the season he faced concerns about two few strikeouts and too many walks, which has seemingly changed this year. MLBPipeline currently ranks him as the #17 prospect, but should be due to move up a few spots this winter. I think he's jumped ahead of Rookie Davis, Keury Mella, and Nick Travieso, and maybe even Santillan (even though that kid is just a high upside project, who knows where he gets ranked). Romano is built like an innings eating #4 starter. Keeping the hits down and very good walk rate with his career high K rate is very promising. He could be a flame throwing reliever (he's hit 99 on the gun) but I think the Reds need that guy who can go out and throw 220 IP with a solid ERA. He may never be a star, but he'll definitely go to AAA next year and I'll be surprised if he doesn't get a real shot at starting. I saw Romano in Daytona last year, he was hitting 96-97 in the 7th inning.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 24, 2016 13:29:30 GMT -5
So, is Nick Senzel really just going to finish his season in Dayton and go home, rather than joining Daytona for their playoff hunt?
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Post by kinsm on Aug 24, 2016 17:40:13 GMT -5
So, is Nick Senzel really just going to finish his season in Dayton and go home, rather than joining Daytona for their playoff hunt? Why does it matter, he's had a long year.
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Post by floydgator on Aug 25, 2016 8:45:23 GMT -5
So, is Nick Senzel really just going to finish his season in Dayton and go home, rather than joining Daytona for their playoff hunt? Why does it matter, he's had a long year. That's a fair point, but it doesn't seem like they have fast tracking him in mind with this progression. I kind of doubt (though I don't know) that the thought process was "hey, let's send him to Dayton b/c he shouldn't be playing an extra 10 games if Daytona makes the playoffs." At this point, a couple of weeks at high A won't make much difference, but it seems like he should have been promoted a month ago. Maybe that would have increased his chances of starting '17 at AA. Can he play in the AFL? I know he has had a long year, but on the off chance they see him spending most of 2018 in the bigs, I would think you would want to give him the offseason before that year off rather than this one.
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Post by The Duke on Aug 25, 2016 11:33:00 GMT -5
Bregman last year played in Low A, then jumped to AA to start this year. I assume a large part of where Senzel starts 2017 will depend on how he looks in spring training. Jumping over High A isn't that crazy if he looks advanced enough in scoring training against tougher competition. I'll be shocked if he doesn't get a non roster invite to spring training.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 25, 2016 16:47:18 GMT -5
Why does it matter, he's had a long year. That's a fair point, but it doesn't seem like they have fast tracking him in mind with this progression. I kind of doubt (though I don't know) that the thought process was "hey, let's send him to Dayton b/c he shouldn't be playing an extra 10 games if Daytona makes the playoffs." At this point, a couple of weeks at high A won't make much difference, but it seems like he should have been promoted a month ago. Maybe that would have increased his chances of starting '17 at AA. Can he play in the AFL? I know he has had a long year, but on the off chance they see him spending most of 2018 in the bigs, I would think you would want to give him the offseason before that year off rather than this one. Why does he need to start next year in AA? Eugenio Suarez has 4 years of team control, the idea that Senzel should be in the bigs in '18 is quite frankly ridiculous IMHO.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 26, 2016 8:21:11 GMT -5
Why does it matter where Senzel ends the year up? There was just a lot of speculation that the Reds would want certain prospects to experience the playoff atmosphere in Daytona and Pensacola, rather than a loser like the Dragons or Bats. I expected Senzel would get a late promotion to Daytona just to help them in their playoff run. There's basically an opening at 3b in Daytona (with LaValley mostly playing 1b) which he would logically fill. It just seems like a no-problem win-win situation for both Senzel and the Tortugas... so, I'm looking that more as a question of atmosphere and helping the Tortugas win rather than a matter of fast-tracking Senzel, or something with particular importance on choosing where he starts 2017.
Yeah, he's had a long season and is tired is a reasonable counter argument.
I wasn't expecting Senzel to go to the AFL for that reason - he's had a long year - but it seems like a Daytona playoff run of a few extra days would be a pretty minor burden, potentially with some minor bragging rights for the organization.
Another possible theory that I thought of the other day, I thought I saw the Dayton Dragon's player development contract is up after this season, and still needs to be renegotiated. The Dragons are probably a little angry they were given such a bad team for most of this season (I didn't want to see them because they seemingly had no interesting players before the draft), maybe keeping the #2 overall pick, and Okey, there for a bit improves the Reds' bargaining position.
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