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Post by redsfanman on Oct 1, 2015 7:47:20 GMT -5
Not-a-starter Anthony DeSclafani ended his 2015 season with a 9-13 record, 4.05 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.348 WHIP, and 151 Ks over 184.2 IP and 31 starts. Last year he pitched 102.1 IP in the minors, 33 in the majors, and 27 IP in the Arizona Fall League. Despite some early concerns that he would need to be shut down before the end of the season he ended up making it through a full year. Just with one skipped start a week or two ago. He ended up with a so-so final start, striking out 8 in 5 IP - and being dominant for the first couple of innings - but allowing 5 runs, to push his season ERA over 4. His FIP (3.68) ended up being nearly identical to what it was last year (3.77), for whatever that's worth.... sorta interesting thing to note. Of course his ERA dropped over 2 runs in the process. After years of seeing the Reds' defense drive down starters ERAs it's sorta surprising to see a Reds starter with a higher ERA than FIP. I'm looking forward to seeing how DeSclafani does next season, after an offseason to rest.
Not-a-starter Raisel Iglesias previously ended his season with a 4.15 ERA and 3.56 WHIP. Although I think the early and end results of his season varied more than DeSclafani's. DeSclafani was consistent, while Iglesias was much better in the second half. Again, I'm surprised to see a Reds starter with a higher ERA than FIP. Iglesias's WHIP (1.143) was the second lowest on the team, after Cueto (or third after Sam LeCure, who only pitched 18 innings so far).
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Oct 3, 2015 10:53:47 GMT -5
Not-a-starter Anthony DeSclafani ended his 2015 season with a 9-13 record, 4.05 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.348 WHIP, and 151 Ks over 184.2 IP and 31 starts. Last year he pitched 102.1 IP in the minors, 33 in the majors, and 27 IP in the Arizona Fall League. Despite some early concerns that he would need to be shut down before the end of the season he ended up making it through a full year. Just with one skipped start a week or two ago. He ended up with a so-so final start, striking out 8 in 5 IP - and being dominant for the first couple of innings - but allowing 5 runs, to push his season ERA over 4. His FIP (3.68) ended up being nearly identical to what it was last year (3.77), for whatever that's worth.... sorta interesting thing to note. Of course his ERA dropped over 2 runs in the process. After years of seeing the Reds' defense drive down starters ERAs it's sorta surprising to see a Reds starter with a higher ERA than FIP. I'm looking forward to seeing how DeSclafani does next season, after an offseason to rest. Not-a-starter Raisel Iglesias previously ended his season with a 4.15 ERA and 3.56 WHIP. Although I think the early and end results of his season varied more than DeSclafani's. DeSclafani was consistent, while Iglesias was much better in the second half. Again, I'm surprised to see a Reds starter with a higher ERA than FIP. Iglesias's WHIP (1.143) was the second lowest on the team, after Cueto (or third after Sam LeCure, who only pitched 18 innings so far). That's why I miss Cozart, and Billy Hamilton, and I want a new left fielder. And I will say, ERA FIP differential isn't 100% luck, because the defense of the pitcher himself plays a small part. I mean, Desclafani has -3 defensive runs saved this year. That doesn't sound like much, but the difference between him and an average defensive pitcher is roughly a 4.05 ERA and a 3.87 ERA. I say "roughly" because it isn't as simple (I think) as taking away 3 ER from his season total: the extra outs will also be reflected in a few extra IP added to his tally, I assumed 4 outs, although you could make a case it would be more than that. Mark Buerhle's entire existence is only a function of his defense as a pitcher. He's accumulated 88 DRS since Baseball Info Solutions started keeping track of the stat in 2003 (if we went back to the beginning of Buerhle's, I'm sure it would exceed 100). That's number 1 all time, next best is Jake Westrook with 62. That's a pretty steep dropoff. It helps that Buehrle has been pitching since the existence of the stat and he never gets injured, but still. Also interesting: Arroyo, Cueto, and Leake rank 10, 11, and 12 all time respectively. Iglesias is just unlucky. Finnegan has a huge ERA FIP differential, but he's also accumulated 2 DRS in only 42 innings, which is pretty incredible. It's mostly luck, but it's a good sign.
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Post by tiberius3108 on Oct 3, 2015 11:49:00 GMT -5
Not-a-starter Anthony DeSclafani ended his 2015 season with a 9-13 record, 4.05 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.348 WHIP, and 151 Ks over 184.2 IP and 31 starts. Last year he pitched 102.1 IP in the minors, 33 in the majors, and 27 IP in the Arizona Fall League. Despite some early concerns that he would need to be shut down before the end of the season he ended up making it through a full year. Just with one skipped start a week or two ago. He ended up with a so-so final start, striking out 8 in 5 IP - and being dominant for the first couple of innings - but allowing 5 runs, to push his season ERA over 4. His FIP (3.68) ended up being nearly identical to what it was last year (3.77), for whatever that's worth.... sorta interesting thing to note. Of course his ERA dropped over 2 runs in the process. After years of seeing the Reds' defense drive down starters ERAs it's sorta surprising to see a Reds starter with a higher ERA than FIP. I'm looking forward to seeing how DeSclafani does next season, after an offseason to rest. Not-a-starter Raisel Iglesias previously ended his season with a 4.15 ERA and 3.56 WHIP. Although I think the early and end results of his season varied more than DeSclafani's. DeSclafani was consistent, while Iglesias was much better in the second half. Again, I'm surprised to see a Reds starter with a higher ERA than FIP. Iglesias's WHIP (1.143) was the second lowest on the team, after Cueto (or third after Sam LeCure, who only pitched 18 innings so far). That's why I miss Cozart, and Billy Hamilton, and I want a new left fielder. And I will say, ERA FIP differential isn't 100% luck, because the defense of the pitcher himself plays a small part. I mean, Desclafani has -3 defensive runs saved this year. That doesn't sound like much, but the difference between him and an average defensive pitcher is roughly a 4.05 ERA and a 3.87 ERA. I say "roughly" because it isn't as simple (I think) as taking away 3 ER from his season total: the extra outs will also be reflected in a few extra IP added to his tally, I assumed 4 outs, although you could make a case it would be more than that. Mark Buerhle's entire existence is only a function of his defense as a pitcher. He's accumulated 88 DRS since Baseball Info Solutions started keeping track of the stat in 2003 (if we went back to the beginning of Buerhle's, I'm sure it would exceed 100). That's number 1 all time, next best is Jake Westrook with 62. That's a pretty steep dropoff. It helps that Buehrle has been pitching since the existence of the stat and he never gets injured, but still. Also interesting: Arroyo, Cueto, and Leake rank 10, 11, and 12 all time respectively. Iglesias is just unlucky. Finnegan has a huge ERA FIP differential, but he's also accumulated 2 DRS in only 42 innings, which is pretty incredible. It's mostly luck, but it's a good sign. Hamilton sucks. He is a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. He should not be the starting CF until he proves he can get on base at better than a .268 clip.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Oct 3, 2015 13:01:34 GMT -5
That's why I miss Cozart, and Billy Hamilton, and I want a new left fielder. And I will say, ERA FIP differential isn't 100% luck, because the defense of the pitcher himself plays a small part. I mean, Desclafani has -3 defensive runs saved this year. That doesn't sound like much, but the difference between him and an average defensive pitcher is roughly a 4.05 ERA and a 3.87 ERA. I say "roughly" because it isn't as simple (I think) as taking away 3 ER from his season total: the extra outs will also be reflected in a few extra IP added to his tally, I assumed 4 outs, although you could make a case it would be more than that. Mark Buerhle's entire existence is only a function of his defense as a pitcher. He's accumulated 88 DRS since Baseball Info Solutions started keeping track of the stat in 2003 (if we went back to the beginning of Buerhle's, I'm sure it would exceed 100). That's number 1 all time, next best is Jake Westrook with 62. That's a pretty steep dropoff. It helps that Buehrle has been pitching since the existence of the stat and he never gets injured, but still. Also interesting: Arroyo, Cueto, and Leake rank 10, 11, and 12 all time respectively. Iglesias is just unlucky. Finnegan has a huge ERA FIP differential, but he's also accumulated 2 DRS in only 42 innings, which is pretty incredible. It's mostly luck, but it's a good sign. Hamilton sucks. He is a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. He should not be the starting CF until he proves he can get on base at better than a .268 clip. Not true. First off, when you say .268, you better mean OBP, because at .268 batting average is what Hamilton needs to be all star caliber, not starting caliber. Yes, he's bad with the bat, but going back to 2014, Fangraphs says he's been the second best defensive player in baseball, behind only Andrelton Simmons. He's probably actually the third best defender in all of baseball, because Kevin Kiermaier has been a god this year and would have probably accumulated more defensive value than Hamilton had he played last year, but Hamilton is absolutely worth starting given how much ground he covers in the outfield. Even with as bad as he has been with the bat this year, he's still a slightly above average MLB starting center fielder.
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Post by vtreds22 on Oct 3, 2015 16:06:51 GMT -5
Hamilton isn't anything close to a "slightly above-average CF"... good Lord.
At this point in his career he's nothing more than a faster version of Wily Taveras. He's been a bust. There's no other way to slice it.
The Reds play in GABP, FFS. They don't need a guy who can cover a lot of ground (though it's nice, obviously). They need someone who can get on base.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Oct 3, 2015 17:00:17 GMT -5
Hamilton isn't anything close to a "slightly above-average CF"... good Lord. At this point in his career he's nothing more than a faster version of Wily Taveras. He's been a bust. There's no other way to slice it. The Reds play in GABP, FFS. They don't need a guy who can cover a lot of ground (though it's nice, obviously). They need someone who can get on base. Hamilton does not cover "a lot" of ground. He covers an unprecedented amount of ground. He makes Wily Taveras look like David Ortiz in the outfield.. He has a slightly above average arm. Analytics are adamant, Billy Hamilton's defense is so good that it really does make up for his offense. This is how good Billy Hamilton's defense is. I can't find game by game splits, by Billy Hamilton pretty much played every game of the first half of the season and has been out for most of the second half of the season. But this is how good Billy is on defense. In the first half of the season, Reds pitchers allowed a BABIP of .282. Basically, that means that 28.2% of all fair balls hit against the Reds during the first half were hits. It was 6th best in the league. Since the beginning of September (Hamilton injured in late August, I can't get a split to start from August 18), Reds pitchers have allowed a .336 BABIP, worst in the league. Even worse than that team that plays in Coors field. This isn't a function of worse pitchers; BABIP is independent of pitcher quality. Ever since Billy Hamilton got injured, mysteriously, excluding homers, a suspicious number of fair balls became hits. The first half of the season, only 28% of fair balls were hits, one of the best rates in the majors. But, since Hamilton is gone, 34% of fair balls are hits, literally the worst rate in the major leagues. I wonder why. This probably overstates his impact a little (no one is that good), but still, Billy Hamilton is a defensive god.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 3, 2015 17:45:30 GMT -5
The moment Billy Hamilton starts making more than league minimum his defense does not outweigh his offensive woes. Maybe on a club with 5 All-Star hitters but not on this club.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Oct 3, 2015 17:49:51 GMT -5
The moment Billy Hamilton starts making more than league minimum his defense does not outweigh his offensive woes. Maybe on a club with 5 All-Star hitters but not on this club. Again, analytics beg to differ. It's dumb when he's leading off, we want him getting as few at bats as possible, but his defense is completely off the charts.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 3, 2015 18:46:55 GMT -5
The moment Billy Hamilton starts making more than league minimum his defense does not outweigh his offensive woes. Maybe on a club with 5 All-Star hitters but not on this club. Again, analytics beg to differ. It's dumb when he's leading off, we want him getting as few at bats as possible, but his defense is completely off the charts. His "analytics" don't take into consideration the other 8 hitters in the lineup. I think you are buying far too much into his defensive value. The difference between a mediocre defensive CF'er who can hit and a plus plus defender who is putrid at the plate playing half their games in GABP is being overstated. It'd be one thing if the corners were being manned by 35 year old Adam Dunn's but they aren't. Since the ASB in 2014 Hamilton has a line of: .217 - .267 - .277 = PUTRID He's quickly reaching pinch runner / defensive sub territory. Furthermore I don't know where you're getting BABIP is independent of pitcher quality. Pitchers like David Holmberg are going to have higher BABIP's than guys like Cueto even with the exact same defenders.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Oct 3, 2015 19:24:11 GMT -5
Again, analytics beg to differ. It's dumb when he's leading off, we want him getting as few at bats as possible, but his defense is completely off the charts. His "analytics" don't take into consideration the other 8 hitters in the lineup. I think you are buying far too much into his defensive value. The difference between a mediocre defensive CF'er who can hit and a plus plus defender who is putrid at the plate playing half their games in GABP is being overstated. It'd be one thing if the corners were being manned by 35 year old Adam Dunn's but they aren't. He's quickly reaching pinch runner / defensive sub territory. Furthermore I don't know where you're getting BABIP is independent of pitcher quality. Pitchers like David Holmberg are going to have higher BABIP's than guys like Cueto even with the exact same defenders. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878Not really true. The only small difference is that Cueto is one of the best defensive pitchers in all of baseball, his glovework actually is excellent. But generally, no, that's not the case. Analytics obviously care about the other 8 players in the lineup. His fielding is that good. Look at fangraphs. UZR data goes back to 2002. Set a 2000 inning requirement. Ignore guys who had a great UZR/150 at some none premier position but were more average playing everywhere else (Coco Crisp). Billy Hamilton is the 4th best defender since the invention of stats that can reliably evaluate defenders. Behind only Andrelton Simmons, Darin Erstad, and Jarrod Dyson. He's ridiculous. He's on another level. We can live with his bat in the 8 spot in the order.
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Post by vtreds22 on Oct 3, 2015 19:35:07 GMT -5
Hamilton isn't anything close to a "slightly above-average CF"... good Lord. At this point in his career he's nothing more than a faster version of Wily Taveras. He's been a bust. There's no other way to slice it. The Reds play in GABP, FFS. They don't need a guy who can cover a lot of ground (though it's nice, obviously). They need someone who can get on base. Hamilton does not cover "a lot" of ground. He covers an unprecedented amount of ground. He makes Wily Taveras look like David Ortiz in the outfield.. He has a slightly above average arm. Analytics are adamant, Billy Hamilton's defense is so good that it really does make up for his offense. This is how good Billy Hamilton's defense is. I can't find game by game splits, by Billy Hamilton pretty much played every game of the first half of the season and has been out for most of the second half of the season. But this is how good Billy is on defense. In the first half of the season, Reds pitchers allowed a BABIP of .282. Basically, that means that 28.2% of all fair balls hit against the Reds during the first half were hits. It was 6th best in the league. Since the beginning of September (Hamilton injured in late August, I can't get a split to start from August 18), Reds pitchers have allowed a .336 BABIP, worst in the league. Even worse than that team that plays in Coors field. This isn't a function of worse pitchers; BABIP is independent of pitcher quality. Ever since Billy Hamilton got injured, mysteriously, excluding homers, a suspicious number of fair balls became hits. The first half of the season, only 28% of fair balls were hits, one of the best rates in the majors. But, since Hamilton is gone, 34% of fair balls are hits, literally the worst rate in the major leagues. I wonder why. This probably overstates his impact a little (no one is that good), but still, Billy Hamilton is a defensive god. We play in GABP. One of the smallest OFs in all of MLB, maybe the smallest. Having a guy who covers a lot of ground, again, is not absolutely necessary. It's a luxury, nothing more. If you can live with his bat in the lineup, you must like not scoring many runs. He's essentially a pitcher with the bat. He could have a rocket attached to his back to cover more ground in the OF for all I care... he can't boinking hit.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 4, 2015 0:57:52 GMT -5
His "analytics" don't take into consideration the other 8 hitters in the lineup. I think you are buying far too much into his defensive value. The difference between a mediocre defensive CF'er who can hit and a plus plus defender who is putrid at the plate playing half their games in GABP is being overstated. It'd be one thing if the corners were being manned by 35 year old Adam Dunn's but they aren't. He's quickly reaching pinch runner / defensive sub territory. Furthermore I don't know where you're getting BABIP is independent of pitcher quality. Pitchers like David Holmberg are going to have higher BABIP's than guys like Cueto even with the exact same defenders. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878Not really true. The only small difference is that Cueto is one of the best defensive pitchers in all of baseball, his glovework actually is excellent. But generally, no, that's not the case. Analytics obviously care about the other 8 players in the lineup. His fielding is that good. Look at fangraphs. UZR data goes back to 2002. Set a 2000 inning requirement. Ignore guys who had a great UZR/150 at some none premier position but were more average playing everywhere else (Coco Crisp). Billy Hamilton is the 4th best defender since the invention of stats that can reliably evaluate defenders. Behind only Andrelton Simmons, Darin Erstad, and Jarrod Dyson. He's ridiculous. He's on another level. We can live with his bat in the 8 spot in the order. Are you suggesting that a linedrive scorched to CF off an 88 mph fastball from Holmberg is equivalent to a popup to CF from a 94 mph fastball from Cueto, even though one is likely going to amount to a 1.000 BAbip and the other is going to be a .000 BaBip? Pitchers do have some control over FB and GB rates, it's why tERA is considered better than ERA. I've seen fangraphs, I've also seen BReference - the fact that there is a dWar component to both and neither can agree on them and the fact that small sample sizes (which 162 games actually is) can vary those numbers greatly I don't take a whole hell of a lot of value into those numbers when deciding whether or not a player is above replacement or not. I do know this much for a fact though - his bat over the past year and a half has been one of the least productive in the majors. I also know that the one thing he does extremely well offensively, steal bases, doesn't age well and is dependent on OBP - something he doesn't do well. So, when he begins making more than league minimum, if the Reds have any other alternatives to replace him they'll have an easy choice IMHO. Just like many other players with his skill set who have been tossed away once they start making money. This team can't afford to have black holes in their lineup, not when you have players like Bruce who are only good for one month at a time.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Oct 4, 2015 10:24:46 GMT -5
www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878Not really true. The only small difference is that Cueto is one of the best defensive pitchers in all of baseball, his glovework actually is excellent. But generally, no, that's not the case. Analytics obviously care about the other 8 players in the lineup. His fielding is that good. Look at fangraphs. UZR data goes back to 2002. Set a 2000 inning requirement. Ignore guys who had a great UZR/150 at some none premier position but were more average playing everywhere else (Coco Crisp). Billy Hamilton is the 4th best defender since the invention of stats that can reliably evaluate defenders. Behind only Andrelton Simmons, Darin Erstad, and Jarrod Dyson. He's ridiculous. He's on another level. We can live with his bat in the 8 spot in the order. Are you suggesting that a linedrive scorched to CF off an 88 mph fastball from Holmberg is equivalent to a popup to CF from a 94 mph fastball from Cueto, even though one is likely going to amount to a 1.000 BAbip and the other is going to be a .000 BaBip? Pitchers do have some control over FB and GB rates, it's why tERA is considered better than ERA. I've seen fangraphs, I've also seen BReference - the fact that there is a dWar component to both and neither can agree on them and the fact that small sample sizes (which 162 games actually is) can vary those numbers greatly I don't take a whole hell of a lot of value into those numbers when deciding whether or not a player is above replacement or not. I do know this much for a fact though - his bat over the past year and a half has been one of the least productive in the majors. I also know that the one thing he does extremely well offensively, steal bases, doesn't age well and is dependent on OBP - something he doesn't do well. So, when he begins making more than league minimum, if the Reds have any other alternatives to replace him they'll have an easy choice IMHO. Just like many other players with his skill set who have been tossed away once they start making money. This team can't afford to have black holes in their lineup, not when you have players like Bruce who are only good for one month at a time. Look, years of data suggest that yes, if fair contact is made with each pitch, they are equally likely to be hits. Now, the caveat is that the 94mph fastball from Cueto is much more likely to create a swing and miss than any pitch by Holmberg, and that's why Cueto>Holmberg. The only exception is that pitchers who get lots of strikeouts tend to have a slightly lower BABIP, but the correlation is very, very weak, and frankly, Lamb and Sampson get more strikeouts than Cueto and Leake respectively. You can point to Smith, but again, this correlation is very, very weak. I was skeptical of defensive stats too. I really was. But after reading Fangraphs UZR primer, I became a believer. I don't know what methods baseball reference uses (although I'd like to note even they say he was worth 2.5 WAR last year and 1.0 WAR this year), but one way or another, I trust the methods used by Fangraphs. Moreover, if you are still skeptical, consider this: before UZR, which is generally accepted as far superior to previous defensive metrics, the only thing we had to use was total zone rating. Again, UZR data starts in 2002. Who are the best defensive players of all time according to TZ? When you include the positional adjustment, Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robinson. Yep, that sounds about right. And if this rudimentary form of defensive statistics can produce pretty accurate results, I'm sure that UZR, which looks at every batted ball and figures out what percentage of fielders reach them based on the speed and location it was hit (i.e., if Billy Hamilton catches a ball that only 20% of centerfielders reach and would normally be a double, Billy Hamilton is credited with preventing .8 doubles), produces a pretty accurate measure. Here's the thing about sample size. The fact is, look at UZR in terms of absolute run prevention, not as a rate statistic. In 244 career games in the outfield, Billy Hamilton has stopped 35.4 runs from scoring relative to the average center fielder. First of all, that's really amazing, because center fielder's generally set the bar pretty high. But still, the sample size is large enough for them to conclude he has saved that many runs. It's a sample size large enough to produce an estimate of 35.4 runs saved. Moreover, his Inside Edge Fielding, a completely different measure, also claims Hamilton is completely ridiculous. They classify balls based on the likelihood they are fielded, I believe watching each play individually. Billy Hamilton successfully fields 17.9% of balls they say the average center fielder has a 1-10% of fielding, 66.7% of balls the average fielder has a 10-40% chance of fielding, 69.2% of balls the average fielder has 40-60% chance of fielding, 88.5% of balls the average fielder has a 60-90% chance of fielding, and 99.8% of routine balls. They classify routine balls as having a 90-100% chance of being fielder properly, but I assumed that's probably skewed closer to 100%, routine balls are a whole bunch of 100% balls and a handful of 90s and 95s mixed in, so I didn't count it, but looking at other guys, Hamilton's 99.8% (585/586) success rate stands out as really high. Looking up a few outfielders at random, Granderson, Bruce, Choo, Lucas Duda, Carlos Gomez, and Adam Jones, the average success rate on routine balls seems to be around 99.3%. I don't think it's an issue of errors. My guess is that Billy Hamilton has never lost any of the 586 balls he has fielded in the sun, and that happens every once and a while to most guys. But again, I won't count it, because in the end, this calculation is generous for Billy Hamilton haters but still proves he's average. If he was right in the middle of each category, he would have allowed 17.1 more hits, based on the number of balls in each category. Again, I'm not counting routine balls, but he was above average in that category and had he only fielded 99.3% of balls it would have been an extra 3 hits, but I'm being generous here. 17 hits may not sound like much, but here's the thing: add 17 hits to Billy Hamilton's career totals, he has a .260 batting average and a .303 on base percentage (would have been .263/.306 if I added 3 hits from routine balls, but I'm being generous here). But hey, it would be unfair to assume all of those hits are singles. Let's be honest; center fielders may field fewer balls than say, shortstops, but the hits they do prevent are often doubles. When Billy Hamilton fields a ball only 5% of center fielders can field, he has probably prevented a double, not a single. Let's assume 10 of those hits he prevented were doubles and 7 were singles. Regardless of how you feel about that estimate, there are plenty of plays where Billy Hamilton's speed helps him cut off a ball that would have been a double off the wall had Billy not been able to cut it off, keeping it a single, and I'm not sure if Inside Edge gives him credit for those plays. Also, I'm generously not counting the three extra hits from routine balls and I'm not counting the fact that he grounds into fewer double plays than the average center fielder by virtue of being Billy Hamilton. In any case, if you assume he has prevented 7 singles and 10 doubles with his outfield defense, and you add that to his batting ledger, he has a career .260/.303/.357 slash line. Okay, that's mediocre, wait, what about the steals? 73 steals per 162 games (the average center fielder gets 26), treat it like an extra 39 total bases per year (there are a few extra caught stealings), assume he has the 8th spot in the order, add 39 total bases to his slugging percentage assuming 643 at plate appearances (average in 2010 for a #8 hitter, honestly with the league becoming more pitcher friendly that's a fairly generous estimate in favor of Billy Hamilton haters), 604 at bats because he walks 5.9% of the time (assuming 1 HBP), add the 39 total bases to those 604 at bats... .422 slugging percentage. So, Billy Hamilton is the equivalent of an average defensive center fielder who steals an average amount of bases per season (26) and has a .260/.303/.422 slash line. And I'm not counting all of the double plays he doesn't ground into, and I generously didn't count routine balls. That is as average as it gets, folks.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 4, 2015 10:43:19 GMT -5
Not an argument worth getting into, as no amount of numbers, facts, or anything will change everyone's opinion. You guys can throw numbers back and forth at eachother all day and won't convince the other. There are lots of numbers in favor of both sides.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2015 11:02:50 GMT -5
As for the Hamilton conversation, I don't see what the debate is. He's good defensively and horrible offensively. As long as there is no better candidate, he's the CF. What he isn't though is a leadoff hitter. Someone with an OBP of under .280 that doesn't also possess power is nothing more than a #8(or maybe more appropriately #9) hitter in a MLB lineup.
As for the actual subject of this thread, I didn't see the game last night but from the boxscore that appears to be a nice outing for Finnegan. One that gives some hope for his future as a starter. Not just that he got in 6 full innings, or that he reached the upper 80's in pitch count, but he limited a good team that still has something to play for to a single run and four hits. I'd see next season's starting five shaping up to be five of these seven names: Iglesias, Lorenzen, Finnegan, DeSclafani, Lamb, Bailey(at some point) and Stephenson. Gives the Reds a couple of guys to consider for bullpen roles in Sampson and Moscot as well as any of the other names that aren't in the rotation. The only one I never want to see in a Reds uniform again is Josh Smith. He's god awful.
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