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Post by redsfanman on Sept 11, 2015 14:55:44 GMT -5
I'd take him over Holmberg as a prospect any day of the week. Until this season Holmberg had the better minor league numbers. Like his 2.75 ERA in 26 starts and 157.1 IP in AA in 2013, right before he was traded to the Reds. That he did at age 21, after a 3.95 ERA in 173.1 IP in 2012. Holmberg's numbers have plummeted in AAA. I don't think the numbers show Varner's superiority to Holmberg, if anything they offer a cautionary tale to not get overly excited about a LHP dominating at AA and below. Varner is in his first full professional season, but is only a year younger than Holmberg.
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Post by redskoolaiddrinker on Sept 11, 2015 20:32:10 GMT -5
I'd take him over Holmberg as a prospect any day of the week. Until this season Holmberg had the better minor league numbers. Like his 2.75 ERA in 26 starts and 157.1 IP in AA in 2013, right before he was traded to the Reds. That he did at age 21, after a 3.95 ERA in 173.1 IP in 2012. Holmberg's numbers have plummeted in AAA. I don't think the numbers show Varner's superiority to Holmberg, if anything they offer a cautionary tale to not get overly excited about a LHP dominating at AA and below. Varner is in his first full professional season, but is only a year younger than Holmberg. I'd take just about anyone over Holmberg. Wasn't saying that Varner would amount to anything.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Sept 11, 2015 22:20:24 GMT -5
I hadn't realized until the other day just what a good season Seth Varner had. I saw he was promoted to Daytona earlier this season, then struggled a bit, and I sorta wrote him off and dropped paying attention. He really rebounded in Daytona and put up similar numbers to those he previously put up in Dayton. He did much better in his first full season than he did last year at Billings. Yeah yeah, advanced college lefty, but still an impressive season. 2015: 2.92 ERA, 27 G, 23 starts, 11-8 record, 138.2 IP, 136 H, 11 BB, 134 K, .253 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. At age 23 the 2014 10th round draft pick sure isn't the Reds' highest upside pitching prospect, but he had as good a season as any Reds minor league starter. I look forward to seeing what he can do in Pensacola next year. He even has hometown ties, being from Batavia before being drafted out of Miami of Ohio. I was thinking the same thing about Brian O'Grady. I mean, senior signs rarely amount to anything, but we drafted him as a 1B out of Rutgers, and we have since moved him to center field. That's a great thing; evidently, he's much better defensively than we realized, which puts less pressure on his bat, and indeed he went 25 for 31 on stolen base attempts this season. We didn't know we were getting such a great athlete. Like Varner, he started off slow in Daytona, picked it up late. Finished the season with a .249/.360/.411 slash line across both levels. That's a lot of walks and decent power. Also 23. Statistically, he's on the same path as Chris Heisey; Heisey was 6 months younger than O'Grady when he put up .289/.350/.436 slash line in his first full season in Dayton in 2007 than O'Grady was when he put up .271/.385/.450 slash line in Dayton, also his first full season. Of course, that age difference is mitigated by the fact that O'Grady put up a better slash line than Heisey, if only by a little.
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 18, 2015 9:23:08 GMT -5
Brian O'Grady is sure an interesting guy in the farm system to watch, albeit not one of the huge upside guys likely to make the top 30 lists. With his versatility - currently playing 1b and CF, experience in both outfield corners, and college experience at 3b - he's interesting. Most Reds fans want prospects who walk more, and he does walk a bunch. I look forward to seeing how O'Grady does next year in his return to Daytona, and I hope he finishes the season in AA. He's got a real uphill battle to reaching the majors, though, as an 8th round pick. After his early performance I'm rooting for him.
The Heisey comparison/similarity is interesting.
In other news, MLB Pipeline chose Jesse Winker as the organization's Position Player Prospect of the Year. No real surprise there, with Alex Blandino and perhaps Phil Ervin being the only other possible candidates. A little more surprisingly, they chose Amir Garrett as Reds Pitching Prospect of the Year. There are seemingly several deserving candidates, including Tyler Mahle (2.43 ERA), Wyatt Strahan (2.79 ERA), Tejay Antone (2.91 ERA), Seth Varner (2.92 ERA), Jackson Stephens (2.97 ERA). Robert Stephenson (140 K), Timothy Adleman (2.64 ERA), Nick Travieso (2.70 ERA, but only 19 starts due to injury), and reliever Zack Weiss also had impressive seasons, for various reasons.
Hopefully Tyler Stephenson, Keury Mella, Cody Reed, and Brandon Finnegan (if eligible) will be added to consideration for those awards next year.
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Post by reds4life1986 on Sept 18, 2015 13:04:19 GMT -5
Dayton had a fantastic rotation this year. I got to see Mahle pitch live and tejay antone. Excited to see them on there developement. Amir garret was pretty exciting in the playoffs. Ive been pretty excited watching jackson stephens too, hes really improved and will be intresting if he gets the nod to go to the wahoos next year. And what will come of ismail gullion, did he have TJ surgery? I think ive asked that question once a month since mid april.
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 18, 2015 16:00:52 GMT -5
Dayton had a fantastic rotation this year. I got to see Mahle pitch live and tejay antone. Excited to see them on there developement. Amir garret was pretty exciting in the playoffs. Ive been pretty excited watching jackson stephens too, hes really improved and will be intresting if he gets the nod to go to the wahoos next year. And what will come of ismail gullion, did he have TJ surgery? I think ive asked that question once a month since mid april. Why WOULDN'T Jackson Stephens get the nod to go to the Blue Wahoos next year? He spent a full season in Daytona (26 starts) with a 2.97 ERA, and a 12-7 record. Sure he's young, but he's only half a year younger than Sal Romano, who got a late season promotion to AA. Here are my totally 100% speculative unofficial 2016 minor league rotation predictions for opening day... AAA Louisville (assuming Lorenzen makes the Reds) Robert Stephenson Brandon Finnegan Jon Moscot Cody Reed (13 starts in AA, maybe he returns there, but AA rotation depth may also lead to a promotion) _________ (Josh Smith? Tim Adleman? Daniel Wright? Keyvius Sampson? Veteran free agent? Who really cares?) AA PensacolaAmir Garrett Nick Travieso Sal Romano Jackson Stephens Keury Mella (although a case could be made to return him to Daytona) (Seth Varner, Barrett Astin, Daniel Wright?)
A+ Daytona Seth Varner (although he probably wouldn't be there long, might start out a victim of AA depth) Tyler Mahle Wyatt Strahan Tejay Antone
Mark Armstrong (Tommy John surgery) Jake Paulson (Keury Mella? Jonathan Crawford? Nick Howard?)
A Dayton Jacob Constante Ty Boyles Tanner Rainey Jose Lopez Franderlyn Romero? Wendolyn Bautista? Ian Kahaloa? (He pitched great in the Arizona League, but that was the Arizona League...) Antonio Santillan? (Also went to Arizona League, maybe goes to extended spring training until Billings starts up)
....I wouldn't bet a single dollar on my Dayton predictions, but I assume those names will be in the mix. Personally I expect Dayton's rotation to be far worse in 2016 than the one they enjoyed today.
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Post by reds4life1986 on Sept 18, 2015 19:48:03 GMT -5
Dayton had a fantastic rotation this year. I got to see Mahle pitch live and tejay antone. Excited to see them on there developement. Amir garret was pretty exciting in the playoffs. Ive been pretty excited watching jackson stephens too, hes really improved and will be intresting if he gets the nod to go to the wahoos next year. And what will come of ismail gullion, did he have TJ surgery? I think ive asked that question once a month since mid april. Why WOULDN'T Jackson Stephens get the nod to go to the Blue Wahoos next year? He spent a full season in Daytona (26 starts) with a 2.97 ERA, and a 12-7 record. Sure he's young, but he's only half a year younger than Sal Romano, who got a late season promotion to AA. Here are my totally 100% speculative unofficial 2016 minor league rotation predictions for opening day... AAA Louisville (assuming Lorenzen makes the Reds) Robert Stephenson Brandon Finnegan Jon Moscot Cody Reed (13 starts in AA, maybe he returns there, but AA rotation depth may also lead to a promotion) _________ (Josh Smith? Tim Adleman? Daniel Wright? Keyvius Sampson? Veteran free agent? Who really cares?) AA PensacolaAmir Garrett Nick Travieso Sal Romano Jackson Stephens Keury Mella (although a case could be made to return him to Daytona) (Seth Varner, Barrett Astin, Daniel Wright?)
A+ Daytona Seth Varner (although he probably wouldn't be there long, might start out a victim of AA depth) Tyler Mahle Wyatt Strahan Tejay Antone
Mark Armstrong (Tommy John surgery) Jake Paulson (Keury Mella? Jonathan Crawford? Nick Howard?)
A Dayton Jacob Constante Ty Boyles Tanner Rainey Jose Lopez Franderlyn Romero? Wendolyn Bautista? Ian Kahaloa? (He pitched great in the Arizona League, but that was the Arizona League...) Antonio Santillan? (Also went to Arizona League, maybe goes to extended spring training until Billings starts up)
....I wouldn't bet a single dollar on my Dayton predictions, but I assume those names will be in the mix. Personally I expect Dayton's rotation to be far worse in 2016 than the one they enjoyed today.
Man bluewahoos could make a better postseason run next year. Yeah kuery mella, nick howard, jonathon crawford were the hell do you fit all this depth. Robert stephenson will get a spring invite again but i doubt he gets on 40 man till midseason? Double A is usually the level we really see what future potential a guy has in this system, i think jackson stephens will be the top guy
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Post by reds4life1986 on Sept 18, 2015 19:52:19 GMT -5
Dayton[/b] Jacob Constante Ty Boyles Tanner Rainey Jose Lopez Franderlyn Romero? Wendolyn Bautista? Ian Kahaloa? (He pitched great in the Arizona League, but that was the Arizona League...) Antonio Santillan? (Also went to Arizona League, maybe goes to extended spring training until Billings starts up)
....I wouldn't bet a single dollar on my Dayton predictions, but I assume those names will be in the mix. Personally I expect Dayton's rotation to be far worse in 2016 than the one they enjoyed today. [/span][/quote]
Man bluewahoos could make a better postseason run next year. Yeah kuery mella, nick howard, jonathon crawford were the hell do you fit all this depth. Robert stephenson will get a spring invite again but i doubt he gets on 40 man till midseason? Double A is usually the level we really see what future potential a guy has in this system, i think jackson stephens will be the top guy[/quote]
As for daytons yeah gunna be qiute the change. I like your list for dayton
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 18, 2015 20:50:58 GMT -5
Man bluewahoos could make a better postseason run next year. Yeah kuery mella, nick howard, jonathon crawford were the hell do you fit all this depth. Robert stephenson will get a spring invite again but i doubt he gets on 40 man till midseason? Double A is usually the level we really see what future potential a guy has in this system, i think jackson stephens will be the top guy Some of the guys who entered 2015 as top prospects, notably Nick Howard and Jonathan Crawford, could perhaps be moved to the bullpen. Both of them ended their seasons early with shoulder problems, which isn't a promising sign of durability, and they're sure to reach the majors faster as relievers than starters. The Reds obviously won't be anxious to do that with either, but too many better starters at A+ and AA might increase the likelihood of that happening. What happens with Howard and Crawford will be an interesting thing to watch next spring, although the biggest issue - health - will be decided first by doctors. This year there was more of a reliance on scrub minor league veteran starters in the Reds' system than I expect there will be next year, which is always welcome. Also the Reds turned Barrett Astin and other former relievers into starters to fill out their rotations... Astin did well in Daytona but struggled in Pensacola. If they were desperate for depth I would expect guys like him to keep starting, instead he's likely to return to the bullpen. Robert Stephenson needs to be added to the 40 man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. I'm sure he won't make the team out of spring training, but the odds of seeing him should constantly increase after that. Kris Bryant was kept in the minors for a few days just to avoid a full season, there's a chance Stephenson does that. Then the Super Two deadline, after which guys like Carlos Correa got called up this year. I'd bet on seeing Stephenson then. Personally I'd bet on Amir Garrett or Nick Travieso to be the 'top guy' in Pensacola, in pretty much any sense of that word, over Jackson Stephens. But that's just me. Just from looking at his numbers and some basic scouting reports. Maybe Keury Mella too, but he's still a question mark for me. As far as AA Pensacola making another postseason run next year, I guess it's a question of how far a strong rotation can take a team. The bullpen and lineup could leave much to be desired. I suspect they'll have C Chad Wallach, 1b/OF Sebastian Elizalde, 2b/SS Alex Blandino, 3b Taylor Sparks (a strong case could be made for him to return to Daytona), SS Carlton Daal, OF Phil Ervin, and CF Beau Amaral. Jesse Winker leaving for AAA should be a big blow to the offense. If the best two hitters, Blandino and Ervin, hit well they'll likely be promoted to AAA, in my opinion, and the organization lacks other noteworthy hitters likely to join Pensacola during the season. Most of the hitters will likely be pretty bad. The bullpen, who knows. I would bet on Louisville to have a good year, depending on how much the Reds pick them over. They could have a strong rotation, bullpen, and offense, if the important guys aren't all promoted to the Reds. Louisville's hitters may lack star upside, aside from Winker, but plenty of them are good OBP guys.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 16, 2015 9:02:08 GMT -5
m.reds.mlb.com/news/article/154314184/aristides-aquino-gavin-lavalley-at-instructsAquino, LaValley making strides at instructsBy Jonathan Mayo / MLB.com | @jonathanmayo | October 13th, 2015 The Cincinnati Reds could not wait to see what Aristides Aquino would do in 2015. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2011, the toolsy outfielder had a breakout summer in 2014 in the Pioneer League, hitting .292/.342/.577 with 16 homers and 21 steals over 71 games. There was genuine excitement in seeing how he would handle the move to full-season ball while turning just 21. Unfortunately, for both the Reds and Aquino, injury got in the way of finding that out. Aquino was hit by a pitch in late April, breaking a bone in his left forearm. He struggled a bit with the initial transition, then tried too hard to make up for lost time upon his return. The end result, a season line of .247/.290/.399 across in just 74 total games. Aquino, the Reds' No. 15 prospect, is currently participating in instructional league play in Arizona, partially to make up for lost at-bats, but mostly to get back to basics. "He's playing really well," Reds farm director Jeff Graupe said. "He's fully back healthy. He got hurt, then tried to make it all back in one game, and that snowballed on him. "He got into a couple of bad habits during the season, trying to hit four homers with every swing. The pressure of being a good player who wasn't performing got to him. He's gotten back to where he was in a quieter, calmer setting." One of the added bonuses of instructs in Arizona is a co-op advanced instructional league into which teams feed players. It provides a slightly higher level of competition, in a very controlled setting, for players who are perhaps more advanced than those new to the pro game still getting their feet wet. "The point of instructional league is to address whatever you need to do in order to advance," Graupe explained. "How can we get you to the next level as quickly as possible? Overall performance, that's not what instructional league is about. It's about addressing specific deficiencies. If we can hit on most of those, it's been a good camp." For Aquino, that meant improving his approach at the plate and his plate discipline. Being able to do that against better pitching than he's faced is a plus, one that could help him move up in 2016. Aquino will continue to work on those quality at-bats until the end of the advanced league on Friday. The Reds will wrap up their overall camp on Oct. 21. The two tiers allow some flexibility for all the teams participating. "The strikeout percentage is down, walk rate and solid contact rates are up," Graupe said about Aquino. "We're happy so far. "The nice thing about two different levels, you can either challenge or put a guy in a controlled setting to get exactly what you're trying to accomplish." LaValley working to find power stroke It's not that Gavin LaValley had a poor first full season of pro ball. It's just that he, and the Reds, know there's more to tap into. The Reds' No. 22 prospect was a fourth-round pick in 2014 and had a strong pro debut. LaValley has a very solid overall approach at the plate, drawing 50 walks and finishing with a .343 OBP in 2015. But, while Dayton is not a good place to hit the long ball, LaValley only slugged .358. Some of that was a mindset at the plate, focusing too much on contact and not driving the ball as much as he's able. Some of it was not using his size -- he's 6-foot-3, 235 pounds. The corner infielder has been working on changing that at instructs. "We've made a couple of changes with him, getting him to use his leverage a little bit more again," Graupe said. "We think he got into survival mode during the season. We have him driving the ball to all fields again." -------------- I've never really believed in Aristides Aquino, thinking that he's overrated. Hopefully they're right and they've taught him something in the Instructional League that helps him for next year. I was pleasantly surprised by Gavin LaValley's season, despite his showing almost no power. I mean, a respectable OBP in A ball at age 20 is a reasonable start (meanwhile Taylor Sparks is 2 years older, struck out far more, and reached base far less). Apparently LaValley lost a lot of weight, so even his body is something he's still getting used to. Hopefully he continues to make progress next year, and maybe takes off as a prospect. I guess it's kinda depressing that with a strong season LaValley might start to look like the team's 5th best hitting prospect... after Winker, Blandino, Ervin, and Tyler Stephenson. He's probably competing with Waldrop, Yorman Rodriguez, Aquino, Trahan, and Sparks for that spot.
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