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Post by redsfanman on Aug 20, 2015 7:45:54 GMT -5
21 year old Sal Romano has certainly run into hard times since being promoted to AA. For Daytona he had a respectable 3.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .261 BAA.
He pitched 2 shutout innings in his first game, before being driven from the game by a rain delay I believe... but since then... 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 0 K
He now has a 13.97 ERA in Pensacola, more BBs (9) than Ks (5), a 2.59 WHIP, and .381 BAA in 9.2 IP over 4 starts.
I wonder if he's hurt or something. Sure sometimes guys do worse at a tougher level, but this kinda dropoff is pretty unusual. Especially for someone who throws hard... in four professional seasons I doubt he's seen anything like this.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 20, 2015 8:41:21 GMT -5
Second round draft pick Antonio Santillan seemingly had his best start last night - 4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K.
He's now pitched 7 games and 19 innings in Arizona, and he gave up all 4 ER in one outing, his third of the season.
I've seen him described as a big high risk, high reward project, and thought he might, perhaps, have to start next season in extended spring training or something to work through things... particularly improving his delivery and developing a changeup... but so far his performance, albeit in a small sample size, seems good enough to expect him to start next year in Dayton, and full-season ball. That should be fun to watch.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 21, 2015 9:21:16 GMT -5
Phil Ervin was promoted to AA. Huzzah. I wonder what position he'll play, after playing LF and CF in Daytona. Pensacola now has Jesse Winker (LF/RF [yes, they've asked him to play RF a bunch]), Juan Duran (RF), Beau Amaral (CF), and Sean Buckley (LF/DH). I wonder if Ervin will replace Amaral in CF, or push Duran to DH. I assume they want to keep Winker working on his fielding.
Also Alex Blandino has notably been splitting time between SS and 2b in Pensacola.
The Reds seem to be stocking that AA team for a playoff run, with Robert Stephenson, Keyvius Sampson, Josh Smith, and Kyle Waldrop being the only relevant players promoted out of Pensacola to Louisville. Ervin, Blandino, Cody Reed, and Sal Romano have all been added to that team recently, while (non-prospect) Tim Adleman (2.21 ERA), reliever Zack Weiss (2.82 ERA), Jesse Winker (.371 OBP), (non-prospect) Marquez Smith (.375 OBP), and Seth Mejias-Brean (.350 OBP) have been kept around despite seemingly being at least somewhat deserving of promotions.
Also Blake Trahan promoted to Daytona, skipping Dayton entirely. I hope he does well. I assume he'd return to Daytona next season.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 24, 2015 8:05:48 GMT -5
Phil Ervin has gotten off to a hot start in Pensacola, through 4 games. He's played LF and gone 4/12 with 2 HR, 1 2b, 2 BB, and 2 K. Small sample size of course, but after going 0/5 in his first 2 games he's had two successful games.
Alex Blandino has played 12 games at SS and 6 at 2b since being promoted to AA. He's gone 13/68 at the plate (.191), with 10 BB and 13 K. He also has 2 HR, 3 2b, and a .300 OBP. Hopefully his high walk total is a sign that he's just had bad luck at the plate.
Blake Trahan, so far, is 1/11 in Daytona. He has struck out once. It's way too early to draw any conclusions, but it's nice to see that he hasn't struggled with high strikeout totals (yet) after an aggressive promotion.
Amir Garrett's ERA by month: April: 2.41, 18.2 IP May: 2.40, 30 IP June: 4.24, 23.1 IP July: 2.10, 30 IP August: 1.03, 26.1 IP (so far)
Pre-All Star Break: 2-5 record, 3.18 ERA, 28 BB, 69 K, .245 BAA, 1.34 WHIP in 65 IP. Post-All Star Break: 7-1 record, 1.56 ERA, 23 BB, 56 K, .212 BAA, 1.12 WHIP in 63.1 IP.
Very promising year for Garrett, who seems to keep getting better.
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Post by The Duke on Aug 24, 2015 10:11:13 GMT -5
Garrett is likely a top 100 prospect now and top 3 in the Reds system.
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Post by floydgator on Aug 27, 2015 9:30:02 GMT -5
A lot of competition for the rotation over the next couple of seasons. Despite struggling at the big league level this year, Lorenzen has completely dominated AAA since being sent back down. 8 shutout innings of 1 hit ball last night puts him at 3 ER over 24 innings in 3 starts since the demotion. He's at 133 innings on the season, so he can stand to make a few more starts.
Cody Reed continues to be impressive at the AA level. After 6 innings last night (1 ER, 8 K, 6H) he's at 3.22 ERA in 11 starts in AA and 2.67 in 131 innings for the season overall. Gotta figure he's almost done for the season after bumping up from 80 innings last season.
Finnegan you have to figure will get a lot of innings as a starter in AAA next year, but add him to the two above plus Iglesias, Lamb and Stephenson. Will be interesting to see who joins Desclafani in the rotation to start next season. Iglesias seems like a lock. I'm guessing Lamb and Lorenzen with Stephenson starting the season in Louisville, Finnegan building a starter's stamina and Reed not quite ready yet. Some stiff will hold the 5th spot until Bailey is ready.
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Post by kinsm on Aug 27, 2015 9:45:57 GMT -5
A lot of competition for the rotation over the next couple of seasons. Despite struggling at the big league level this year, Lorenzen has completely dominated AAA since being sent back down. 8 shutout innings of 1 hit ball last night puts him at 3 ER over 24 innings in 3 starts since the demotion. He's at 133 innings on the season, so he can stand to make a few more starts. Cody Reed continues to be impressive at the AA level. After 6 innings last night (1 ER, 8 K, 6H) he's at 3.22 ERA in 11 starts in AA and 2.67 in 131 innings for the season overall. Gotta figure he's almost done for the season after bumping up from 80 innings last season. Finnegan you have to figure will get a lot of innings as a starter in AAA next year, but add him to the two above plus Iglesias, Lamb and Stephenson. Will be interesting to see who joins Desclafani in the rotation to start next season. Iglesias seems like a lock. I'm guessing Lamb and Lorenzen with Stephenson starting the season in Louisville, Finnegan building a starter's stamina and Reed not quite ready yet. Some stiff will hold the 5th spot until Bailey is ready. Opening day rotation is shaping up like this, barring health; DeSclafani Iglesias Lorenzen Lamb (he'll be out of options) (Free Agent, Possible Trade Acquisition, Finnegan, Moscot, Stephenson, Sampson, Smith, Holmberg) Bailey on DL
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 27, 2015 10:51:04 GMT -5
Next year's rotation competition should be an interesting thing to watch in spring training. It'll probably be a rare year for the Reds where their rotation for the beginning of the season bears little resemblance to their plan for even the middle of the season, with Stephenson (service time), Finnegan (rotation experience), and others all but certain to start the season in the minors, with Bailey starting the season on the DL. That's three starters I expect to be relevant to the Reds' 2016 season who shouldn't star the season in Cincinnati.
Whoever makes the opening day rotation as the 5th starter likely won't have the same job security we've seen from many recent 5th starters (Simon, Leake....). Maybe it'll be someone like Jon Moscot, who knows he'll be optioned back to Louisville when someone held in higher regard seems ready. Maybe they'll acquire some cheap free agent scrub/veteran/mentor like Arroyo or Harang, but who knows.
Personally I think Iglesias, rather than DeSclafani, has the heads up on an opening day start. But I agree Lamb and Lorenzen join them as the favorites for 4 spots.
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Post by The Duke on Aug 27, 2015 14:11:02 GMT -5
Next year's opening day rotation
Iglesias Desclafani Lorenzen Lamb Moscot
In AAA Stephenson Reed Finnegan Adleman Smith
In AA Garrett Travieso Mella Romano Stephens
In High A Mahle Strahan Crawford Varner Antone
In Low A Boyles Constante Armstrong Rainey Romero
Predictions: Once Homer Bailey is back, Lorenzen gets shifted to the bullpen Finnegan will be back in the bullpen in 2017 after being tried out as a starter in 2016 Stephenson gets called up in June once we are well sure he is past super 2 range Cody Reed gets called up in July/August and starts 2017 in the rotation 2017 Reds Pitching staff:
Iglesias Stephenson Bailey Desclafani Reed
Moscot Romano Lamb Weiss Hoover Finnegan Lorenzen
With Travieso, Garrett, and Mella in the AAA rotation
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Post by redskoolaiddrinker on Aug 28, 2015 11:47:57 GMT -5
Next year's opening day rotation Iglesias Desclafani Lorenzen Lamb Moscot In AAA Stephenson Reed Finnegan Adleman Smith In AA Garrett Travieso Mella Romano Stephens In High A Mahle Strahan Crawford Varner Antone In Low A Boyles Constante Armstrong Rainey Romero Predictions: Once Homer Bailey is back, Lorenzen gets shifted to the bullpen Finnegan will be back in the bullpen in 2017 after being tried out as a starter in 2016 Stephenson gets called up in June once we are well sure he is past super 2 range Cody Reed gets called up in July/August and starts 2017 in the rotation 2017 Reds Pitching staff: Iglesias Stephenson Bailey Desclafani Reed Moscot Romano Lamb Weiss Hoover Finnegan Lorenzen With Travieso, Garrett, and Mella in the AAA rotation Who's the closer you think?
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Post by The Duke on Aug 28, 2015 12:43:34 GMT -5
Next year's opening day rotation Iglesias Desclafani Lorenzen Lamb Moscot In AAA Stephenson Reed Finnegan Adleman Smith In AA Garrett Travieso Mella Romano Stephens In High A Mahle Strahan Crawford Varner Antone In Low A Boyles Constante Armstrong Rainey Romero Predictions: Once Homer Bailey is back, Lorenzen gets shifted to the bullpen Finnegan will be back in the bullpen in 2017 after being tried out as a starter in 2016 Stephenson gets called up in June once we are well sure he is past super 2 range Cody Reed gets called up in July/August and starts 2017 in the rotation 2017 Reds Pitching staff: Iglesias Stephenson Bailey Desclafani Reed Moscot Romano Lamb Weiss Hoover Finnegan Lorenzen With Travieso, Garrett, and Mella in the AAA rotation Who's the closer you think? Either Finnegan or Lorenzen. If Cingrani it's still around and not hurt, it gives them another lefty in the bullpen too.
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Post by redsfanman on Aug 31, 2015 11:14:59 GMT -5
Checking up on some top prospects in AA Pensacola:
SS/2b Alex Blandino: 24 G, 89 ABs, .202 AVG, .327 OBP, 5 2b, 2 HR, 15 BB, 16 K. In his last 5 games he has 5 H, 5 BB, and 0 K. He's obviously not hitting as well as he did in Daytona (.273) but he's still walking about as much as he strikes out. He had a .338 BABIP in Daytona (and something similar in Dayton and Billings) but currently has a low .222 BABIP in Pensacola, so hopefully his hitting struggles are just a matter of bad luck.
OF Phil Ervin: 11 G, 33 AB, .242 AVG, .444 OBP, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 SB, 11 BB, 9 K. Walking more than he strikes out. His .273 BABIP is similar to what it was in Daytona, and what it was in Dayton last year.
OF Jesse Winker: 117 G, 419 AB, .277 AVG, .383 OBP, 21 2B, 13 HR, 69 BB, 81 K. He's good. .314 BABIP.
RHP Sal Romano finally had his first somewhat-respectable start in Pensacola on Saturday, pitching 6 innings with 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, and 2 K. Through 6 starts he is 0-4 with a 12.50 ERA and 2.22 WHIP. Hopefully his most recent start is a good sign.
RHP Stephen Johnson has given up 2 H, 1 BB, and 0 R in 4 IP, with 4 K, since being acquired for Marlon Byrd. Not a top prospect, but still an interesting one.
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 11, 2015 12:58:56 GMT -5
I hadn't realized until the other day just what a good season Seth Varner had. I saw he was promoted to Daytona earlier this season, then struggled a bit, and I sorta wrote him off and dropped paying attention. He really rebounded in Daytona and put up similar numbers to those he previously put up in Dayton. He did much better in his first full season than he did last year at Billings. Yeah yeah, advanced college lefty, but still an impressive season.
2015: 2.92 ERA, 27 G, 23 starts, 11-8 record, 138.2 IP, 136 H, 11 BB, 134 K, .253 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. At age 23 the 2014 10th round draft pick sure isn't the Reds' highest upside pitching prospect, but he had as good a season as any Reds minor league starter. I look forward to seeing what he can do in Pensacola next year.
He even has hometown ties, being from Batavia before being drafted out of Miami of Ohio.
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 11, 2015 13:25:11 GMT -5
Lots of attention is always given to the most successful prospects each season, who move up the rankings. Who are the opposites for the 2015 Reds?
1. Nick Howard, RHP. No question about it, 50 BB in 38 IP, 6.63 ERA, missed much of the season with shoulder problems. I think there's a chance that he returns next year and pitches much better, but at the moment he looks horrendous. Baseball America and Fangraphs ranked him 5th amongst Reds prospects.
2. Aristedes Aquino, RF. I heard a lot of hype about him last winter, how his raw skills made him one of the Reds' best prospects. Baseball America ranked him 9th amongst Reds prospects, Fangraphs 10th. He's 21 and finally moved above rookie ball this year, although he spent a lot of the season on the DL. He hit .234 with a .281 OBP with 11 BB and 53 K in 249 PAs for Dayton. Ouch.
3. Jonathan Crawford, RHP. Fortunately Suarez has been a big success while Crawford missed most of the season with shoulder problems. He'll be 24 next season, with two career games pitched above low A ball. If he recovers from his shoulder problems I sorta expect him to now be fast-tracked as a reliever.
4. Kyle Waldrop, OF/1b. He couldn't replicate his 2014 season, striking out more while walking, hitting, and homering less. His 55 games in AAA were ugly (.185 average, .211 OBP, 1 HR in 213 PAs), although he's only 23.
5. Juan Duran, OF. Now age 24, he missed much of the season, playing 59 games in AA, while hitting .256 with a .290 OBP. Not that he was really on any list to move down on, though. But his years on the 40 man roster sorta show the Reds' confidence in him.
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Post by redskoolaiddrinker on Sept 11, 2015 14:47:36 GMT -5
I hadn't realized until the other day just what a good season Seth Varner had. I saw he was promoted to Daytona earlier this season, then struggled a bit, and I sorta wrote him off and dropped paying attention. He really rebounded in Daytona and put up similar numbers to those he previously put up in Dayton. He did much better in his first full season than he did last year at Billings. Yeah yeah, advanced college lefty, but still an impressive season. 2015: 2.92 ERA, 27 G, 23 starts, 11-8 record, 138.2 IP, 136 H, 11 BB, 134 K, .253 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. At age 23 the 2014 10th round draft pick sure isn't the Reds' highest upside pitching prospect, but he had as good a season as any Reds minor league starter. I look forward to seeing what he can do in Pensacola next year. He even has hometown ties, being from Batavia before being drafted out of Miami of Ohio. I'd take him over Holmberg as a prospect any day of the week.
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