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Post by bobroberts on Oct 21, 2014 23:15:36 GMT -5
Unless the Reds decline Cueto's option(not going to happen) then Lester and Mad Max are the only comparable options.
Personally if I'm the Red Sox, I'd keep Cespedes, sign Lester, take a flyer on Brett Anderson, and hope Allan Webster can fill out the back end of the rotation...
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Post by kinsm on Oct 22, 2014 0:48:18 GMT -5
Agreed, if you believe those guys are comparable. Do we believe that? Off the top of my head, the only free agent pitchers he'd be behind are Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. He's ahead of James Shields, Jason Hammel, and everyone else...unless I'm overlooking someone really good. Yep, and Cespedes would have to be considered one of the best (if not the best) outfield options - if you believe in WAR and future Steamer Projections. (He's entering his age 29 season, will make 10.5M$, and has put up 8.5 fWAR / 9.6 rWAR over the past 3 seasons - and that's with negative defensive values - Not to mention, in his worst season (2013) he ended the 1st half of it with a .250 BAbip). Point being, the Red Sox won't have to include any type of top tier prospect in a deal with Cespedes to get back near equal return. Steamer projects Cespedes to finish 2015 with a higher WAR than any hitter, or pitcher for that matter, on the Reds roster with the exception of Votto. The Red Sox may be just as happy throwing a 3/4 year ~12 mil per deal at a player like Liriano, McCarthy, Santana, etc. and keep their prospects and Cespedes (or trade him elsewhere) or throw a large pillow at a guy like Masterson. The Reds in my eyes would need this trade more so than the Red Sox. If the Red Sox balked they may be looking at a Liriano type substitue, if the Reds balked they may be looking at a Rasmus or Chris Young type substitue. So, perhaps Reds fans aren't overvaluing Latos per say, they are simply undervaluing Cespedes (and more importantly - the lack of options there are to fill that LF void)?
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Post by kinsm on Oct 22, 2014 1:33:18 GMT -5
Unless the Reds decline Cueto's option(not going to happen) then Lester and Mad Max are the only comparable options. Personally if I'm the Red Sox, I'd keep Cespedes, sign Lester, take a flyer on Brett Anderson, and hope Allan Webster can fill out the back end of the rotation... Though the Red Sox don't want to do it, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Henry Owens opens the year in their rotation - he's that good. Between him, Buchholz, De La Rosa, Kelly, Workman, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, Escobar, Rodriguez, Johnson, Couch, Diaz, etc.. they should have plenty of internal options to round out a rotation if they choose to go that route. The Peavy, Lackey, and Miller trades gave them a heads-up in that matter. Though I don't see that as their first choice, they want those guys to get more seasoning, and will seek proven guys on shorter deals.
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 22, 2014 1:33:46 GMT -5
Off the top of my head, the only free agent pitchers he'd be behind are Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. He's ahead of James Shields, Jason Hammel, and everyone else...unless I'm overlooking someone really good. Yep, and Cespedes would have to be considered one of the best (if not the best) outfield options - if you believe in WAR and future Steamer Projections. (He's entering his age 29 season, will make 10.5M$, and has put up 8.5 fWAR / 9.6 rWAR over the past 3 seasons - and that's with negative defensive values - Not to mention, in his worst season (2013) he ended the 1st half of it with a .250 BAbip). Point being, the Red Sox won't have to include any type of top tier prospect in a deal with Cespedes to get back near equal return. Steamer projects Cespedes to finish 2015 with a higher WAR than any hitter, or pitcher for that matter, on the Reds roster with the exception of Votto. The Red Sox may be just as happy throwing a 3/4 year ~12 mil per deal at a player like Liriano, McCarthy, Santana, etc. and keep their prospects and Cespedes (or trade him elsewhere) or throw a large pillow at a guy like Masterson. The Reds in my eyes would need this trade more so than the Red Sox. If the Red Sox balked they may be looking at a Liriano type substitue, if the Reds balked they may be looking at a Rasmus or Chris Young type substitue. So, perhaps Reds fans aren't overvaluing Latos per say, they are simply undervaluing Cespedes (and more importantly - the lack of options there are to fill that LF void)? I'm confused, which I suppose is what happens when the discussion is too general. Which Reds fans are either (A) overvaluing Latos or (B) undervaluing Cespedes? To me, it seems like everyone, including you, feels like Latos, assuming health, for Cespedes is in the right ballpark, with perhaps another small piece coming back our way. For the second piece, you mentioned Noe Ramirez. I mentioned Rubby de la Rosa, which seemed more in line with what PSU was thinking. So, since we are all of like mind, are we all doing either (A) or (B)? I'm not sure I see how, especially since the market for Cespedes was just recently set. Yoenis Cespedes Competitive Balance Round B Draft Pick for Jon Lester Jonny Gomes Cash So, Cespedes was just traded for a #1 type starter with less service time control than Latos will have. Gomes, as an impending free agent, had negligible value to the BoSox. The competitive balance pick had fairly good value and served to offset the loss of a free agent compensation pick that would have been incurred by the BoSox for dealing Lester. If the price was something along the lines of Cespedes and the draft pick for 2 months of Lester, then wouldn't Cespedes for a full season of a healthy Mat Latos be a good value? In fact, the BoSox would get ANOTHER draft pick out of the deal, as Latos could be offered arbitration to net a compensatory pick, whereas Cespedes has it in his contract that he cannot be offered arbitration when his deal expires. So, in actuality, it would basically be Cespedes for Latos and a compensatory pick, which feels very similar to the deal that brought Cespedes to the BoSox. Lester is a better pitcher? Sure, but Latos would provide 4 more months of production over Lester. So, where does the overvaluing come into play? What's being proposed feels very similar to the deal that was just cut involving Cespedes. They can keep "Gomes" and the "cash", just toss in Rubby instead. The lesser quality of our pitcher is offset by a longer period of control and receiving, rather than sending, a higher draft pick. I'm not sure there's any overvaluing going on. It feels more like market value. In fact, maybe we also would be entitled to draft pick compensation if we take on Cespedes.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 22, 2014 1:40:29 GMT -5
You and I are not the only two in the thread discussing whether or not they are comparable. A number of people have insinuated that one is overrated, or in the case of PSU's demands for a major league ready bench/bullpen piece being added.
Comparing the previous deal isn't exactly fair or wise, since OAK gave up more because they had limited options midseason - BOS does not suffer those same limitations with a FA crop.
Cespedes can also be offered a QO, same as Latos.
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 22, 2014 1:54:35 GMT -5
Cespedes can also be offered a QO, same as Latos. Are you sure on this ^^^? I don't believe that's the case, as stated here in this MLB.com article:
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 22, 2014 2:02:10 GMT -5
You and I are not the only two in the thread discussing whether or not they are comparable. A number of people have insinuated that one is overrated, or in the case of PSU's demands for a major league ready bench/bullpen piece being added. Comparing the previous deal isn't exactly fair or wise, since OAK gave up more because they had limited options midseason - BOS does not suffer those same limitations with a FA crop. Cespedes can also be offered a QO, same as Latos. As intrigued as I am by the thought of Cespedes hitting cleanup in GABP, this deal wouldn't be at the top of my list. In the last two seasons, Cespedes has OBPs of .294 and .301. Obviously, those numbers would go up in GABP, but I would think there are better ways to acquire a LF than to give up Latos and lose a net draft pick. If we are going all-in for 2015, then I'm not sure trading Latos makes sense. If we are playing for the future, then I'm not sure acquiring Cespedes makes any sense. The more I think about, the more I wonder if we shouldn't just tear down our pitching staff and start over. Deal everyone that isn't Homer (Cueto, Latos, Leake, Chapman, Simon) and bring back some cost controlled talent.
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Post by psuhistory on Oct 22, 2014 7:20:31 GMT -5
You and I are not the only two in the thread discussing whether or not they are comparable. A number of people have insinuated that one is overrated, or in the case of PSU's demands for a major league ready bench/bullpen piece being added. My thinking was precisely along the lines Lark mentioned: de la Rosa's in the Boston bullpen mix for next season, given the number of pitchers they're losing. I wouldn't trade a year of Latos for a year of Cespedes straight up, but I'm not suggesting that Cespedes is overrated. I think he could be a valuable addition. I'm more interested in the general aspects of this trade--the need to address two areas, power bat and either bench or bullpen--than in the individual pieces because I think discussions of the latter can get bogged down in the merits/demerits of individual players...
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Post by psuhistory on Oct 22, 2014 7:42:33 GMT -5
The more I think about, the more I wonder if we shouldn't just tear down our pitching staff and start over. I've been on the fence about this, basically waiting for the Reds to indicate clearly whether poverty will be the theme of their offseason. If that's the case, I would start the dealing for magic beans because I don't think they're going to fix their problems for 2015 with that attitude. Still, this postseason has confirmed again that the Reds have at least one of the major strengths for a run, and I'd like to see them try once more with this group...
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 22, 2014 8:54:58 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox's excess of outfielders needs to be factored into discussions that they might 'keep' Cespedes, and address their starting pitching needs through free agency. The Red Soxs currently have Cespedes, Victorino, Castillo, Mookie Betts, Allen Craig, Jackie Bradley, and Daniel Nava competing for 3 outfield spots, with David Ortiz (DH) and Mike Napoli (1b) returning.
They seem committed to keeping Betts. Shane Victorino would be appealing to trade, but they probably couldn't move him at this point. Of the remaining guys Cespedes is the most expensive, and has the highest trade value. That's the basic premise of why Cespedes may be traded. Keeping 7 outfielders for 3 spots seems highly unlikely.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 22, 2014 8:58:20 GMT -5
You and I are not the only two in the thread discussing whether or not they are comparable. A number of people have insinuated that one is overrated, or in the case of PSU's demands for a major league ready bench/bullpen piece being added. Comparing the previous deal isn't exactly fair or wise, since OAK gave up more because they had limited options midseason - BOS does not suffer those same limitations with a FA crop. Cespedes can also be offered a QO, same as Latos. As intrigued as I am by the thought of Cespedes hitting cleanup in GABP, this deal wouldn't be at the top of my list. In the last two seasons, Cespedes has OBPs of .294 and .301. Obviously, those numbers would go up in GABP, but I would think there are better ways to acquire a LF than to give up Latos and lose a net draft pick. If we are going all-in for 2015, then I'm not sure trading Latos makes sense. If we are playing for the future, then I'm not sure acquiring Cespedes makes any sense. The more I think about, the more I wonder if we shouldn't just tear down our pitching staff and start over. Deal everyone that isn't Homer (Cueto, Latos, Leake, Chapman, Simon) and bring back some cost controlled talent. Bob Castellini is determined to have a good season while the Reds host the 2015 All Star game. If the dream isn't coming true, the dismantling can come after the All Star game.
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Post by bobroberts on Oct 22, 2014 9:14:54 GMT -5
Since we're talking about hypothical trades with the Red Sox, why not make it a blockbuster deal:
Red Sox get
Cueto(with a 72 hour window to extend him) Latos Ben Lively Sean Marshall
Reds get Xander Bograts Cespedes Allen Webster Sean Marshall's contract off the books
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 22, 2014 9:21:41 GMT -5
The more I think about, the more I wonder if we shouldn't just tear down our pitching staff and start over. I've been on the fence about this, basically waiting for the Reds to indicate clearly whether poverty will be the theme of their offseason. If that's the case, I would start the dealing for magic beans because I don't think they're going to fix their problems for 2015 with that attitude. Still, this postseason has confirmed again that the Reds have at least one of the major strengths for a run, and I'd like to see them try once more with this group... The decision would be so much easier if we could rely on Tony Cingrani. If he was healthy, then, oddly enough, it'd be easier to conceive of trading away starting pitching under either a win-now plan or a play for the future plan. His absence really robs us of needed depth. His balky shoulder makes it impossible to rely on his presence in our rotation for the purposes of our offseason planning.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 22, 2014 10:02:32 GMT -5
I guess I like a hypothetical Mat Latos-Yoenis Cespedes trade more now than I did initially, after reading other peoples' opinions.
Brandon Phillips hit .266 with a .306 OBP and was criticized all season for being a bad hitter. Ludwick hit .244 with a .308 OBP and was criticized all season for being a terrible hitter in LF. Cespedes hit .260 with a .301 OBP - almost identical to Phillips and Ludwick - but is a drastic improvement due to double standards. Cespedes will hit some flashy homeruns, which seemingly matters more than any other statistic. Cespedes' flaws set the stage well for what Jesse Winker should be able to do well, like get on base, while not being an exceptional defender to make Winker's questionable fielding look particularly bad (like, say, Markakis).
I'd certainly prefer to see Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts acquired, but both seem likely to require far more in a trade. Bogaerts would immediately lead to debates about his position, like top shortstop prospect Alex Blandino. Maybe Bogaerts would be the Reds' next Felipe Lopez, but he needs to start hitting first. Bogaerts might become a big offensive upgrade over Zach Cozart, but at the moment it's hard to sell him as more than a different #8 hitter, let alone a sure-thing significant offensive upgrade in 2015.
Pros and cons of a Latos-Cespedes deal: Pro: -Much of Cespedes' salary offset by moving Latos' contract. -Decisively settles issue of what to do with Latos. Boston could look into extending him. -Sets stage for Jesse Winker in LF in 2015, with Cespedes certainly gone after one year. -Reds will have made 'big move', adding a 2014 All Star to replace Ryan Ludwick. Nobody can accuse the Reds of doing nothing. -Shakeup move, clear change of philosophy from pitching and defense to a bat-first player. -Reds have enough pitching depth to fill in for Latos, assuming they avoid an injury wave. -Another Cuban. Everyone loves Cubans. Chapman, Pena, Iglesias, Cespedes, go Cubans. -Hitting in GABP might keep Cespedes' OBP over .300. When he quickly wears out his welcome he'll go to free agency. -Most LF candidates for acquisition are at least as bad as Cespedes, or a worse value. -Genuine power hitters are hard to find these days. -Latos' trade value seemingly matches up best with Cespedes - rather than Cueto (higher) or Leake (lower), and Latos is the top Reds starter who isn't 'home grown'. Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Cingrani can all claim to be. Latos and Simon are the odd guys out, in that way. Most rotation candidates, aside from Holmberg and Axelrod, can claim to be 'home grown'. -With 7 outfielders for 3 spots, the Red Soxs have good reason to move Cespedes.
Cons: -Cespedes is overrated. Like Brandon Phillips with power instead of a glove, like Ryan Ludwick with more power. Arguably a worse hitter than Jay Bruce. I don't think Cespedes is a good candidate to hit cleanup. I'd start him out batting 6th, after Frazier (2), Votto (3), Mesoraco (4), and Bruce (5). -Mat Latos, arguably the team's second best starter, would be gone. Simon better repeat his 2014 season, or Cingrani needs to make a full recovery, or a young starter needs to set up. -Reds would have invested heavily in a raw power guy with limited on-base skills, seemingly a step in the wrong direction. -Cespedes might not be a good clubhouse guy, if rumors about him are to be believed. -Cespedes might not bring about the desired LF upgrade people hope for, and will therefore be unpopular. -Mat Latos is one of the few Reds players who lives in Cincinnati year around, as far as I know. -Cespedes will leave as a free agent WITHOUT draft pick compensation. Latos is likely to be tied to draft pick compensation.
Whatever, go for it Jocketty. Latos for Cespedes, see what happens. As good a deal as any I've heard. It won't fix the problems of Reds LFs being unable to reach base, but it'll shut everyone up about most of the criticism, while leaving a clear opportunity for Jesse Winker in the future. Death to the pro-Chris Heisey (he has 18+ homerun power!) crowd. The only thing Heisey can do offensively Cespedes can do better, and more consistently.
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Post by psuhistory on Oct 22, 2014 10:52:31 GMT -5
I guess I like a hypothetical Mat Latos-Yoenis Cespedes trade more now than I did initially, after reading other peoples' opinions. Cespedes' doubles and triples should be added to the list of "pros" relative to the Reds hitters you mentioned...
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