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Post by kinsm on Mar 26, 2015 18:45:39 GMT -5
Dear God...the season hasn't even begun and you assholes are already trading Cueto, Chappy, AND Byrd...and Byrd has yet to even play a boinking game in Cincy. Chapman I see gone after this year, I bet Cueto gets his LTC from the Reds...how many of you had Votto, BP, AND Homer gone a few years due to the same circumstances? For a preliminary outline of what the 2016 Reds will look like, it's true, I'm not including Cueto or other players who I expect to be gone. If they're back it's a plus. In Cueto's career, at least since 2010, you might notice a trend: 2010, good year, 185.2 innings (good year, at the time) 2011, breakout year, but only 156.2 innings (injury prone!). 2012, great year, 217 innings. 2013, bad year, 60.2 innings (people question whether he'll ever be healthy again since he's so injury prone) 2014, great year, 243.2 innings (best season, give him $200m!) The trend is that Cueto deals with injury problems every other year, at least since he's become good. If Cueto has a great (and healthy) year reminiscent of 2012 and 2014 I think he'll be traded away. He certainly will NOT be extended for $25m+ per year even if he repeats his 2014 production. If he has a year reminiscent of 2011 or 2013 I think his price may be driven down sufficiently for the Reds. How many people had Votto, BP, and Homer gone a few years ago? I don't know. Who expected Latos to be retained this winter? Lots, I would assume, but it still didn't happen. Marlon Byrd is a stopgap until Jesse Winker is ready, darn right I'd be getting rid of him. Byrd doesn't need to play a game in Cincinnati to determine that. The worst case scenario on Marlon Byrd is that he reaches enough plate appearances for his 2016 option to vest. I doubt the Reds can trade the entirety of his $8m deal for 2016 - the Phillies couldn't. Who is to say the Phillies couldn't? They only sent money so they'd get back Lively. Had they not sent money they may have still traded him - but only got a Pedro Villarreal type back.
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Post by kramer1 on Mar 26, 2015 20:14:35 GMT -5
Please, I beg you; quit quoting RFM. If you think I'm paying for your water at Great Steak and Lube with all these quotes then you're mistaken.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 26, 2015 20:45:38 GMT -5
Who is to say the Phillies couldn't? They only sent money so they'd get back Lively. Had they not sent money they may have still traded him - but only got a Pedro Villarreal type back. Pardon me. I should have said the Phillies "didn't" rather than "couldn't". They chose to cover part of Byrd's contract in order to get a return, effectively investing $4m in Ben Lively.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 26, 2015 20:50:22 GMT -5
My guess is that if the Reds sign Cueto to a LTC, he'll end up spending most of the next five years on the DL. If they don't, he'll likely win multiple CYAs, and be inducted into the HOF wearing a Yankees cap. Gosh, I'm cheerful. That being said, beacause of the injury risk, I'd much rather the Reds signed Leake than Cueto. Not as good a pitcher when they're both healthy, but I think it far more likely that Leake can pitch day in and day out. Plus he'll be at least $50M cheaper. Now watch, the Reds sign Leake and he spends the next five years on the DL... Sigh Totally agree, whichever one they decide to extend is the one I'm betting on to get hurt. Luck too rarely goes for the Reds. They already got terribly lucky on Cueto's current (4 year, $27m) contract, with him being a whole different caliber of pitcher after signing. They day they pay Leake big money for his durability is also the day I expect his durability to vanish.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Mar 27, 2015 8:38:04 GMT -5
Something has to balance the scales for all those innings Bronson Arroyo pitched for us...
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Post by kinsm on Mar 30, 2015 6:50:14 GMT -5
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Post by floydgator on Mar 30, 2015 17:29:23 GMT -5
73-89 after Johnny gets traded at the deadline and we are left with no real #1 or 2 starter on the roster and Todd Frazier breaks his back trying to carry Jay Bruce and his 297 Ks.
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Post by kinsm on Apr 2, 2015 10:49:18 GMT -5
The opening day roster is set, if you haven't made your selection do so now....this poll will lock Sunday at midnight.
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Post by kinsm on Apr 5, 2015 19:44:22 GMT -5
THIS POLL LOCKS AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
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Post by kinsm on Apr 5, 2015 22:28:53 GMT -5
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Post by Lark11 on Apr 5, 2015 22:35:40 GMT -5
I went with 74 to 76 wins. I hope I'm wrong.
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Post by quantumfootball on Apr 6, 2015 1:26:21 GMT -5
Why are the Astros and Marlins rated so low? They have players who can actually play well, as opposed to a whole bunch of depreciating garbage that exists on most teams.
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Post by kinsm on Apr 6, 2015 2:44:54 GMT -5
Why are the Astros and Marlins rated so low? They have players who can actually play well, as opposed to a whole bunch of depreciating garbage that exists on most teams. www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=TeamSort it to your delight, the fact is combined they project to be mediocre.
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rkymtnredsfan
Dave Concepcion
"I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball." Pete Rose
Posts: 514
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Post by rkymtnredsfan on Apr 6, 2015 11:22:30 GMT -5
73-89 after Johnny gets traded at the deadline and we are left with no real #1 or 2 starter on the roster and Todd Frazier breaks his back trying to carry Jay Bruce and his 297 Ks. I think the Reds will be sellers at the trade deadline--I predict 79-83.
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Post by rocky15231 on Apr 6, 2015 11:23:54 GMT -5
I'll say 80-82.
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