Make Your 2015 Reds Win Total Prediction

[kinsm]

2015 OPENING WIN TOTALS...


Atlantis Reno Superbook

Listed below are all of the opening Win Totals posted on Feb. 14, 2015 at the Atlantis SuperBook.

NL - Team - O/U
NLE - Washington Nationals - 93
NLW - Los Angeles Dodgers - 91
NLC - St. Louis Cardinals - 87.5
NLC - Pittsburgh Pirates - 85.5
NLW - San Francisco Giants - 85
NLW - San Diego Padres - 84
NLC - Chicago Cubs - 81.5
NLE - Miami Marlins - 81.5
NLE - New York Mets - 81
NLC - Milwaukee Brewers - 80
NLC - Cincinnati Reds - 79
NLE - Atlanta Braves - 73.5
NLW - Arizona Diamondbacks - 72.5
NLW - Colorado Rockies - 70.5
NLE - Philadelphia Phillies - 67

AL - Team - O/U
ALW - Los Angeles Angels - 87.5
ALC - Detroit Tigers - 86.5
ALE - Boston Red Sox - 86
ALW - Seattle Mariners - 85
ALE - Baltimore Orioles - 84.5
ALE - Toronto Blue Jays - 83.5
ALC - Kansas City Royals - 83
ALW - Oakland Athletics - 82.5
ALC - Chicago White Sox - 82
ALC - Cleveland Indians - 81
ALE - New York Yankees - 80
ALE - Tampa Bay Rays - 77.5
ALW - Texas Rangers - 76.5
ALW - Houston Astros - 73.5
ALC - Minnesota Twins - 68.5


Westgate-Hilton Las Vegas Superbook

Listed below are all of the opening Win Totals posted on Feb. 15, 2015 at the Westgate SuperBook.

NL - Team - O/U
NLE - Washington Nationals - 93
NLW - Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5
NLC - St. Louis Cardinals - 88.5
NLW - San Diego Padres - 85.5
NLW - San Francisco Giants - 84.5
NLC - Pittsburgh Pirates - 83.5
NLC - Chicago Cubs - 82.5
NLE - Miami Marlins - 81.5
NLE - New York Mets - 81.5
NLC - Milwaukee Brewers - 78.5
NLC - Cincinnati Reds - 78
NLE - Atlanta Braves - 73.5
NLW - Arizona Diamondbacks - 72
NLW - Colorado Rockies - 71.5
NLE - Philadelphia Phillies - 68.5

AL - Team - O/U
ALW - Los Angeles Angels - 89.5
ALW - Seattle Mariners - 87.5
ALE - Boston Red Sox - 86
ALC - Detroit Tigers - 84.5
ALC - Cleveland Indians - 84.5
ALE - Toronto Blue Jays - 82.5
ALE - Baltimore Orioles - 81.5
ALC - Chicago White Sox - 81.5
ALE - New York Yankees - 81.5
ALW - Oakland Athletics - 80.5
ALC - Kansas City Royals - 79.5
ALE - Tampa Bay Rays - 79.5
ALW - Texas Rangers - 78.5
ALW - Houston Astros - 75.5
ALC - Minnesota Twins - 71.5


---Atlantis was taking bets up to $500 and Westgate was taking bets up to $1000, so the Westgate openers should be a bit closer to the final lines than what we saw from Atlantis.

---In 2014, the two books ended up with the same correlation coefficient with team’s actual 2014 records, but Westgate did a much better job when comparing their opening lines to what each team’s average moneyline was over the 2014 season (after removing the vig and adjusting for homefield advantage). There’s a lot of luck and randomness involved in a team’s final record, so using moneylines is a good way to measure how well the opening lines from each sportsbook predicted the true talent of each team.

[kinsm]

If everything went just right for the Reds...Bruce and Votto returned to form, BP and Byrd's bats don't slide anymore, Hamilton hits all year like he did that one month, Mesoraco continues to hit bombs, Cingrani and DeSclafani not only hold down the 4th/5th spots but are above average, the entire team stays healthy, and a couple of teams in the NLCentral play below their level or deal with a lot of injuries this team could finish close to a .600 W%.

On the other hand....If Votto's power is gone and Bruce never returns to form, BP and Byrd done, Hamilton has a sub .300 OBP all year, Mesoraco quits hitting bombs, the 4th/5th spots in the rotation are a disaster, there are a bunch of injuries, and other teams in the NLCentral play above their level or deal with no injuries this team could finish close to a .400 W%.





With all of the if's out of the way I'll throw out my prediction....I think this team finishes just under .500 and if they are smart they trade Cueto and Chapman in July.


77 - 79

[kinsm]

This poll will lock on Monday, April 6th - Opening Day!

[psuhistory]

Offense rebounds, bullpen improves, starting pitching declines...

84-78: contention, significant w/l improvement over 2014, generally healthy, just off the wc pace; no one gets fired, no one gets traded...

Optimism, with an existential shadow...

[riverfront86]

85-77. hopefully we sneak in as a WC with 85 wins but not likely.

-Cueto will get his LTC (hey we didn't think Votto, BP, or Homer would get theirs).
-Chapman will more than likely be gone after this season.
-Byrd hits 27 HRs
-Bruce hits 35
-Mez hits 29
-Homer wins 15

-NL wins the ASG on a BHam steal of home...there is my crazy prediction.

After last season I'll gladly take 85 wins.

[vtreds22]

Mar 1, 2015 6:16:37 GMT -5 kinsm said:

If everything went just right for the Reds...Bruce and Votto returned to form, BP and Byrd's bats don't slide anymore, Hamilton hits all year like he did that one month, Mesoraco continues to hit bombs, Cingrani and DeSclafani not only hold down the 4th/5th spots but are above average, the entire team stays healthy, and a couple of teams in the NLCentral play below their level or deal with a lot of injuries this team could finish close to a .600 W%.

On the other hand....If Votto's power is gone and Bruce never returns to form, BP and Byrd done, Hamilton has a sub .300 OBP all year, Mesoraco quits hitting bombs, the 4th/5th spots in the rotation are a disaster, there are a bunch of injuries, and other teams in the NLCentral play above their level or deal with no injuries this team could finish close to a .400 W%.





With all of the if's out of the way I'll throw out my prediction....I think this team finishes just under .500 and if they are smart they trade Cueto and Chapman in July.


77 - 79

You expecting the Reds to play six less games this season?

Edit: oops, I realize you're predicting 77-79 wins. So much for me being clever...

[vtreds22]

I'll make a definitive win prediction sometime before Opening Day. This is a hard team to project. Like Kinsm said, if everything breaks right, they could be a really good ballclub. If they don't, we're likely looking at a long season.

A lot of it will depend on how we start. If we get off to a good start then I can see the team being aggressive in July and making a run at it. If we get off to a bad start and are 7+ games out of 1st in July, I believe a Cueto trade is inevitable.

Votto has to be healthy and be a .925-.975 OPS bat. Bruce has to rebound and go back to being an .800 OPS, 30 home run bat. Frazier and Mesoraco need to repeat their performances. Cueto, Bailey, and Leake must be healthy, and at least one more starter must step in and be good (I think Iglesias is the best bet).

I could see a scenario where we're healthy and get off to a good start, then get a major boost in August from young guys like Iglesias and Stephenson, with the team contending for the division all season.

I could also see a scenario where Votto's knee continues to be an issue, Bruce continues to flame out, Mesoraco regresses, Bailey isn't healthy, and we blow it up in July and are lucky to win 70 games.

Again, I'll hold off on making a prediction for now... but as of today, I'm feeling pretty optimistic and am leaning towards 89-91 wins. It's not that unfathomable.

[kramer1]

Who picked 89-91 wins?

Make it stop.

[vtreds22]

Mar 1, 2015 20:05:53 GMT -5 kramer1 said:

Who picked 89-91 wins?

Make it stop.

Careful, or I'm going to put in a word to the Big Cheese and have him give you an infraction for being too negative...

[psuhistory]

Mar 1, 2015 20:26:06 GMT -5 vtreds22 said:

Mar 1, 2015 20:05:53 GMT -5 kramer1 said:

Who picked 89-91 wins?

Make it stop.

Careful, or I'm going to put in a word to the Big Cheese and have him give you an infraction for being too negative...

Could be a point(s) for everyone on the active roster, it's clearly generalized negativity...

[tnredsfan]

I'm going to take the moderate, boring path: 81-81. I think the big additions of Byrd and Bradenhop (plus healthier Votto and Bruce) slightly outweigh losing Latos and Simon and a bit of regression (or a DL stint) from Cueto's Cy Young-ish 2014. So a few more wins. But there's no way in hell this team, even if everything breaks right, can compete with the Nats or Cards or Dodgers.

[jbuck]

being last year's clear winner, I'll predict the same. 75 wins

[redsfanman]

I'll predict ~91 wins, that's about the same as the 2010 and 2013 Reds.  A couple of seasons where everything - at least enough things - seemed to go right.  Not as high as the 2012 Reds.  Better than the 2011 and 2014 Reds, when everything seemed to go wrong.

Reds records for the past few years:
2014:  76-86, 46.9%
2013:  90-72, 55.6%
2012:  97-65, 59.9%
2011:  79-83, 48.8%
2010:  91-71, 56.2%
2009:  78-84, 48.1%

I expect the rotation to remain strong, despite the loss of Latos (or addition by subtraction).  I expect the bullpen to improve, both due to new candidates and because of established relievers who can only be better than they were in 2014.  I expect the lineup to be significantly improved by the healthy return of Votto and Bruce.  I expect the defense to remain a great strength, which again helps to limit runs allowed.

[redsfanman]

Mar 1, 2015 20:05:53 GMT -5 kramer1 said:

Who picked 89-91 wins?

Make it stop.

Who picked fewer than 64 wins???  The Reds won 66 games in 2001, but haven't won fewer than 66 since 1981.

Worst year since before I was born?  Ouch.

[The Duke]

I refuse to vote for a lack of a 162-0 option.