'13 - '14 Off-Season: Free Agent Contract Predictions

[kinsm]

--It's that time of the year again, here are my offseason contract predictions. I haven't included any international free agents. If you disagree with any of my predictions - please don't hesitate to let me know.

Teams have the opportunity to make qualifying offers of $14.1 M to their free agents by Monday at 5pm eastern time, assuming the player was with the team the entire season. If offered, players must decide whether to accept by November 12th at 5pm eastern time.

Draft compensation could change how some teams value certain free agents but I will not change any of these predictions (with the exception of adding nontenders).

I will continually update this list with who has signed and for what amount, so that everyone can be up to date with who is available and judge me on how well my predictions are fairing. Just as I have the past three off-season’s.

ESPN, YAHOO, CBSSPORTS, and others will put out similar predictions shortly.


Player (Age) - Contract Prediction
..................................................................................


Catcher

*Brian McCann (30): 5 years / 15.5M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ NYY (5 years + vesting option, 85 M)
*Jarrod Saltalamacchia (29): 4 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ MIA (3 years, 21 M)
*Carlos Ruiz (35): 2 years / 8M AAV Re-Signed w/ PHI (3 years + club option, 26 M)
*A.J. Pierzynski (37): 1 year / 7.5M AAV Signed w/ BOS (1 year, 8.25 M)
Geovany Soto (31): 2 years / 4.5M AAV Re-Signed w/ TEX (1 year, 3.05 M + incentives)
Dioner Navarro (30): 2 years /3.5M AAV Signed w/ TOR (2 years, 8 M)

Other C'ers - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

J.P. Arencibia (27) Signed w/ TEX (1 year, 1.8 M + incentives)
Henry Blanco (42) Signed w/ ARI (Minor League Deal)
John Buck (33) Signed w/ SEA (1 year, 1 M)
Hector Gimenez (31) Re-Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Ramon Hernandez (38) Signed w/ KC (Minor League Deal)
Koyie Hill (34) Signed w/ WAS (Minor League Deal)
Lou Marson (27) Re-Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Michael McKenry (28) Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Corky Miller (37) Re-Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Jose Molina (38) Re-Signed w/ TB (2 years, 4.5 M)
Wil Nieves (36) Signed w/ PHI (1 year, 1.125 M + incentives)
Miguel Olivo (35) Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Brayan Pena (32) Signed w/ CIN (2 years, 2.25 M)
Humberto Quintero (34) Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Guillermo Quiroz (32) Re-Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Kelly Shoppach (34)
Chris Snyder (32) Signed w/ WAS (Minor League Deal)
Kurt Suzuki (30) Signed w/ MIN (1 year, 2.75 M + incentives)
Taylor Teagarden (30) Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Yorvit Torrealba (35) Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
.................................................................................

Firstbaseman

*Mike Napoli (32): 3 years / 13.5M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Re-Signed w/ BOS (2 years, 32 M)
*James Loney (30): 2 years / 8M AAV Re-Signed w/ TB (3 years, 21 M)
*Corey Hart (32): 1 year / 7.5M AAV Signed w/ SEA (1 year, 6 M + incentives)
*Justin Morneau (33): 1 year / 6M AAV Signed w/ COL (2 years + mutual option, 13 M)
Garrett Jones (32): 1 year / 4M AAV Signed w/ MIA (2 years, 7.75 M)

Other 1Bman - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Jeff Baker (33) Signed w/ MIA (2 years, 3.7 M)
Todd Helton (40) Retired
Dan Johnson (34) Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Paul Konerko (38) Re-Signed w/ CHI (1 year, 2.5 M + incentives)
Casey Kotchman (31)
Lyle Overbay (37) Signed w/ MIL (Minor League Deal)
Carlos Pena (36) Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
Brandon Snyder (26)
Chad Tracy (33) Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
Ty Wigginton (36) Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
....................................................................................

Secondbaseman

*Robinson Cano (31): 8 years / 25M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ SEA (10 years, 240 M)
*Omar Infante (32): 4 years, 9M AAV Signed w/ KC (4 years, 30.25 M)
*Mark Ellis (37): 1 year, 5.5M AAV Signed w/ STL (1 year, 5.25 M + incentives)

Other 2Bman - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

David Adams (26) Signed w/ CLE (1 year, ? M)
Emilio Bonifacio (28) Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
Alexi Casilla (29) Re-Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Jamey Carroll (40) Signed w/ WAS (Minor League Deal)
Chris Getz (30) Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Alberto Gonzalez (31) Signed w/ SD (Minor League Deal)
Elliot Johnson (29) Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Kelly Johnson (32) Signed w/ NYY (1 year, 3 M)
Nick Punto (36) Signed w/ OAK (1 year + club option, 2.75 M)
Brian Roberts (36) Signed w/ NYY (1 year, 2 M + incentives)
Ryan Roberts (33) Signed w/ CHI (Minor League Deal)
Ramon Santiago (34) Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Skip Schumaker (34) Signed w/ CIN (2 years + club option, 5 M)
Justin Turner (29) Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Chris Valaika (28) Signed w/ CHI (Minor League Deal)
Josh Wilson (33) Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
...................................................................................

Shortstop

*Stephen Drew (31): 4 years / 11M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)
*Jhonny Peralta (32): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ STL (4 years, 53 M)

Other SS's - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Robert Andino (30) Signed w/ PIT (Minor League Deal)
Clint Barmes (35) Re-Signed w/ PIT (1 year, 2 M)
Willie Bloomquist (36) Signed w/ SEA (2 years, 5.8 M)
Ronny Cedeno (30) Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Rafael Furcal (36) Signed w/ MIA (1 year, 3 M + incentives)
Alex Gonzalez (36) Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Nick Green (35)
Cesar Izturis (34) Signed w/ HOU (Minor League Deal)
Paul Janish (31) Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Munenori Kawasaki (32) Re-Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Brent Lillibridge (30) Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
John McDonald (39) Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
Omar Quintanilla (32) Re-Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Brendan Ryan (32) Re-Signed w/ NYY (2 years + mutual option, 5 M)
....................................................................................

Thirdbaseman

*Juan Uribe (34): 1 year / 9M AAV Re-Signed w/ LAD (2 years, 15 M)
Michael Young (37): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Retired
Mark Reynolds (30): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ MIL (Minor League Deal)
Kevin Youkilis (35): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ Japanese Rakuten Golden Eagles (1 year, 4 M + incentives)

Other 3Bman - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Yuniesky Betancourt (32) Signed w/ Japanese Orix Buffaloes (1 year, ? M)
Wilson Betemit (32) Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)
Eric Chavez (36) Re-Signed w/ ARI (1 year, 3.5 M + incentives)
Mat Gamel (28) Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (38) Retired
Brandon Inge (37)
Brandon Laird (26) Signed w/ KC (Minor League Deal)
Casey McGehee (31) Signed w/ MIA (1 year, 1.1 M + incentives)
Chris Nelson (28) Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Jayson Nix (31) Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)
Placido Polanco (38)
Miguel Tejada (39)
....................................................................................

Outfielder

*Jacoby Ellsbury (30): 6 years / 18.5M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ NYY (7 years + club option, 153 M)
*Shin-Soo Choo (31): 6 years / 16M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ TEX (7 years, 130 M)
*Curtis Granderson (33): 4 years / 16M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ NYM (4 years, 60 M)
*Carlos Beltran (37): 2 years /13.5M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ NYY (3 years, 45 M)
*Nelson Cruz (33): 2 years / 11M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ BAL (1 year, 8 M + incentives)
*Marlon Byrd (36): 2 years / 7M AAV Signed w/ PHI (2 years + club option, 16 M)
*Nate McLouth (32): 2 years / 6.5M AAV Signed w/ WAS (2 years + club option, 10.75 M)
*David Murphy (32): 1 year / 6M AAV Signed w/ CLE (2 years + club option, 12 M)
*Chris Young (30): 1 year / 5.5M AAV Signed w/ NYM (1 year, 7.25 M)
Rajai Davis (33): 1 year / 3.5M AAV Signed w/ DET (2 years, 10 M)
Franklin Gutierrez (31): 1 year / 3.5M AAV Re-Signed w/ SEA (1 year, 1 M + incentives)

Other OF'ers - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Rick Ankiel (34)
Jason Bay (35) Retired
Roger Bernadina (30) Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Quintin Berry (28) Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Endy Chavez (35) Re-Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Chris Coghlan (28) Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
Tyler Colvin (28) Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Trevor Crowe (30) Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Matt Diaz (35) Retired
Chris Dickerson (31) Signed w/ PIT (Minor League Deal)
Jeff Francoeur (30) Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Sam Fuld (32) Signed w/ OAK (Minor League Deal)
Reed Johnson (37) Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Ryan Kalish (25) Signed w/ CHI (Minor League Deal)
Austin Kearns (34)
Mark Kotsay (38) Retired
Darnell McDonald (35) Re-Signed w/ CHI (Minor League Deal)
Laynce Nix (33)
Xavier Paul (28) Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Francisco Peguero (24) Signed w/ BAL (1 year, ? M)
Juan Pierre (36)
Jason Pridie (30)
Derrick Robinson (26)
Dave Sappelt (26) Re-Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Grady Sizemore (31) Signed w/ BOS (1 year, .75 M + incentives)
Andres Torres (36)
Jordany Valdespin (25) Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Casper Wells (29) Signed w/ CHI (Minor League Deal)
...................................................................................

Designated Hitter

*Kendrys Morales (30): 3 years / 11M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)
Mike Morse (32): 1 year /4.5M AAV Signed w/ SF (1 year, 6 M + incentives)
Raul Ibanez (42): 1 year / 3.5M AAV Signed w/ LAA (1 year, 2.75 M + incentives)
Jason Kubel (32): 1 year / 3.5M AAV Signed w/ MIN (Minor League Deal)

Other DH's - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Lance Berkman (37) Retired
Shelley Duncan (34) Signed w/ ARI (Minor League Deal)
Jason Giambi (42) Re-Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Travis Hafner (37)
Luke Scott (36) Signed w/ Korean Incheon Wyverns (1 year, ? M)
Delmon Young (28) Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
......................................................................................

Starting Pitcher

*Hiroki Kuroda (39): 1 year / 15.5M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Re-Signed w/ NYY (1 year, 16 M)
*Matt Garza (30): 4 years / 13.5M AAV Signed w/ MIL (4 years + vesting option, 50 M)
*Ricky Nolasco (31): 4 years / 13.5M AAV Signed w/ MIN (4 years + vesting option, 49 M)
*Ervin Santana (31): 4 years / 13.5M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)
*Ubaldo Jimenez (30): 3 years / 13.5M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) Signed w/ BAL (4 years, 50 M + incentives)
*A.J. Burnett (37): 2 years / 13.5M AAV Signed w/ PHI (1 year + player option, 16 M)
*Bronson Arroyo (37): 2 years / 11M AAV Signed w/ ARI (2 years + club option, 23.5 M)
*Scott Kazmir (30): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ OAK (2 years, 22 M)
*Scott Feldman (30): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ HOU (3 years, 30 M)
*Dan Haren (33): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ LAD (1 year + vesting option, 10 M)
*Jason Hammel (31): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ CHC (1 year, 6 M + incentives)
*Jason Vargas (31): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ KC (4 years, 32 M)
*Tim Hudson (38): 1 year / 9M AAV Signed w/ SF (2 years, 23 M)
*Gavin Floyd (31): 1 year / 9M AAV Signed w/ ATL (1 year, 4 M + incentives)
*Josh Johnson (30): 1 year / 9M AAV Signed w/ SD (1 year, 8 M + incentives)
*Bartolo Colon (41): 1 year / 9M AAV Signed w/ NYM (2 years, 20 M)
*Paul Maholm (32): 2 years / 7M AAV Signed w/ LAD (1 year, 1.5 M + incentives)
*Phil Hughes (28): 2 years / 7M AAV Signed w/ MIN (3 years, 24 M)
Chris Capuano (35): 1 year / 6M AAV Signed w/ BOS (1 year, 2.5 M + incentives)
Bruce Chen (37): 1 year / 5.5M AAV Re-Signed w/ KC (1 year + mutual option, 4.25 M + incentives)
Roberto Hernandez (33): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ PHI (1 year, 4.5 M + incentives)
Scott Baker (32): 1 year / 4.5M AAV plus incentives Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Jake Westbrook (36): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Retired
Roy Halladay (37): 1 year / 4.5M AAV plus incentives Retired
Aaron Harang (36): 1 year / 3.5M AAV Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Joe Saunders (33): 1 year / 3.5M AAV

Other SP'ers - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Alfredo Aceves (31) Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Erik Bedard (35) Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)
Jeremy Bonderman (31)
Chris Carpenter (39) Retired
Tyler Cloyd (26) Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Jeff Francis (33) Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Freddy Garcia (37) Re-Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Jon Garland (34)
Chad Gaudin (31)
Tommy Hanson (27) Signed w/ TEX (1 year, 2 M + incentives)
Jeremy Hefner (27) Re-Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Daniel Hudson (26) Re-Signed w/ ARI (Minor League Deal)
Philip Humber (31)
Jeff Karstens (31)
John Lannan (29) Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Wade LeBlanc (29) Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
Colby Lewis (34) Re-Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Ted Lilly (38) Retired
Shaun Marcum (32) Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Jason Marquis (35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (33) Re-Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
James McDonald (29) Signed w/ CHC (1 year, 1 M)
Randy Messenger (32) Re-Signed w/ Japanese Hanshin Tigers (3 years, ? M)
Jeff Niemann (31)
Sean O'Sullivan (26) Re-Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Roy Oswalt (35) Retired
Ramon Ortiz (40)
Mike Pelfrey (30) Re-Signed w/ MIN (2 years, 11 M + incentives)
Andy Pettitte (40) Retired
Clayton Richard (30)
Johan Santana (34)
Ryan Vogelsong (36) Re-Signed w/ SF (1 year, 5 M + incentives)
Edinson Volquez (30) Signed w/ PIT (1 year, 5 M)
Tsuyoshi Wada (33) Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
P.J. Walters (29) Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Chien-Ming Wang (34) Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Jerome Williams (32) Signed w/ HOU (1 year, 2.1 M + incentives)
Randy Wolf (37) Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Barry Zito (36)
....................................................................................

Relief Pitcher

*Joe Nathan (39): 2 years / 13M AAV Signed w/ DET (2 years + club option, 20 M)
*Grant Balfour (36): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ TB (2 years, 12 M)
*Fernando Rodney (37): 2 years / 9M AAV Signed w/ SEA (2 years, 14 M + incentives)
*Joel Hanrahan (32): 1 year / 7.5M AAV
*Brian Wilson (32): 1 year / 7.5M AAV Re-Signed w/ LAD (1 year + player option, 10 M)
*Chris Perez (28): 2 years/ 7M AAV Signed w/ LAD (1 year, 2.25 M + incentives)
*Edward Mujica (30): 2 years / 7M AAV Signed w/ BOS (2 years, 9.5 M)
*Joaquin Benoit (36): 2 years / 7M AAV Signed w/ SD (2 years + vesting option, 15.5 M)
Jesse Crain (32): 1 year / 5.5M AAV Signed w/ HOU (1 year, 3.25 M)
Joe Smith (30): 3 years / 5M AAV Signed w/ LAA (3 years, 15.75 M)
Boone Logan (29): 3 years / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ COL (3 years, 16.5 M)
Jose Veras (33): 2 years / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ CHI (1 year + club option, 4 M + incentives)
Scott Downs (38): 2 years / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ CHW (1 year + vesting option, 4 M)
Javier Lopez (36): 2 years / 4.5M AAV Re-Signed w/ SF (3 years, 13 M)
Eric O'Flaherty (29): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ OAK (2 years, 7 M + incentives)
Kevin Gregg (36): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
Matt Thornton (37): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ NYY (2 years, 7 M)
LaTroy Hawkins (39): 1 year / 4.5M AAV Signed w/ COL (1 year + club option, 2.5 M)
J.P. Howell (31): 2 years / 3.5M AAV Re-Signed w/ LAD (2 years + mutual option, 11.25 M)
Oliver Perez (32): 2 years / 3.5M AAV
Francisco Rodriguez (31): 1 year / 3.5M AAV Signed w/ MIL (1 year, 3.25 M + incentives)
John Axford (30): 1 year / 3.5M AAV Signed w/ CLE (1 year, 4.5 M + incentives)

Other RP'ers - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

David Aardsma (32) Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Matt Albers (31) Signed w/ HOU (1 year + club option, 2.45 M)
Hector Ambriz (30)
Scott Atchison (37) Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Dylan Axelrod (28) Re-Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Luis Ayala (36) Signed w/ WAS (Minor League Deal)
Andrew Bailey (29) Signed w/ NYY (Minor League Deal)
Daniel Bard (28) Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Ronald Belisario (30) Signed w/ CHI (1 year, 3 M)
Rafael Betancourt (39)
Travis Blackley (31) Signed w/ Japanese Rakuten Golden Eagles (1 year, ? M)
Mitchell Boggs (29) Signed w/ CHW (1 year, 1.1 M)
Michael Bowden (27) Signed w/ Japanese Seibu Lions (1 year, ? M)
Tim Byrdak (40)
Shawn Camp (38) Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Joba Chamberlain (28) Signed w/ DET (1 year, 2.5 M + incentives)
Todd Coffey (33)
Manny Corpas (31) Re-Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Matt Daley (31) Re-Signed w/ NYY (Minor League Deal)
Octavio Dotel (40)
Zach Duke (30) Signed w/ MIL (Minor League Deal)
Kyle Farnsworth (38) Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Pedro Feliciano (37)
Frank Francisco (34)
Mike Gonzalez (36)
Matt Guerrier (35) Re-Signed w/ MIN (Minor League Deal)
J.C. Gutierrez (30) Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Rich Hill (34) Signed w/ BOS (Minor League Deal)
Phil Humber (30) Signed w/ OAK (Minor League Deal)
Chang-Yong Lim (37) Re-Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
Kameron Loe (32) Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Brandon Lyon (34) Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
Ryan Madson (33)
Jeff Manship (29) Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Carlos Marmol (31) Signed w/ MIA (1 year, 1.25 M)
Cristhian Martinez (27)
Nick Masset (32) Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Jose Mijares (29) Signed w/ BOS (Minor League Deal)
Pat Neshek (33) Signed w/ STL (Minor League Deal)
Zach Miner (32) Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Peter Moylan (35) Signed w/ HOU (Minor League Deal)
Brett Myers (33)
Darren Oliver (43) Retired
Juan Carlos Oviedo (30) Re-Signed w/ TB (1 year, 1.5 M + incentives)
Manny Parra (31) Re-Signed w/ CIN (2 years, 5.5 M)
David Purcey (32) Signed w/ CHI (Minor League Deal)
Chad Qualls (35) Signed w/ HOU (2 years + club option, 6.5 M)
J.C. Ramirez (25)
Jon Rauch (35) Signed w/ KC (Minor League Deal)
Mariano Rivera (44) Retired
Josh Roenicke (31) Signed w/ WAS (Minor League Deal)
Sandy Rosario (28) Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Tony Sipp (30) Signed w/ SD (Minor League Deal)
Jose Valverde (36) Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Ryan Webb (27) Signed w/ BAL (2 years, 4.5 M)
Jamey Wright (39) Signed w/ LAD (1 year, 1.8 M)
Wesley Wright (28) Signed w/ CHI (1 year, 1.425 M)
....................................................................................

*Indicates Top 50 Free Agent

[Lark11]

Nov 3, 2013 18:57:16 GMT -5 kinsm said:

--It's that time of the year again, here are my offseason contract predictions. I haven't included any international free agents. If you disagree with any of my predictions - please don't hesitate to let me know. I've been waiting a few days for teams to finalize decisions on players with options (all but 5 are now concluded).

Teams have the opportunity to make qualifying offers of $14.1 M to their free agents by Monday at 5pm eastern time, assuming the player was with the team the entire season. If offered, players must decide whether to accept by November 12th at 5pm eastern time.

Draft compensation could change how some teams value certain free agents but I will not change any of these predictions (with the exception of adding nontenders).

I will continually update this list with who has signed and for what amount, so that everyone can be up to date with who is available and judge me on how well my predictions are fairing. Just as I have the past three off-season’s.

ESPN, YAHOO, CBSSPORTS, and others will put out similar predictions shortly.


Player(Age) - Contract Prediction
..................................................................................


Catchers

*Brian McCann(30): 5 years / 15.5M AAV
*Jarrod Saltalamacchia(29): 4 years / 9M AAV
*Carlos Ruiz(35): 2 years / 8M AAV
*A.J. Pierzynski(37): 1 year / 7.5M AAV
Geovany Soto (31): 2 years / 4.5M AAV
Dioner Navarro (30): 2 years /3.5M AAV

Other Catchers - Less than 3.5M AAV Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Henry Blanco (42)
John Buck (33)
Hector Gimenez (31)
Ramon Hernandez (38)
Koyie Hill (34)
Corky Miller (37)
Jose Molina (38)
Wil Nieves (36)
Miguel Olivo (35)
Brayan Pena (32)
Humberto Quintero (34)
Guillermo Quiroz (32)
Kelly Shoppach (34)
Kurt Suzuki (30)
Taylor Teagarden (30)
Yorvit Torrealba (35)
.................................................................................

Firstbaseman

*Mike Napoli(32): 3 years / 13.5M AAV
*James Loney (30): 2 years / 8M AAV
*Corey Hart (32): 1 year / 7.5M AAV
*Justin Morneau (33): 1 year / 6M AAV

Other 1Bman - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Jeff Baker (33)
Dan Johnson (34)
Paul Konerko (38)
Casey Kotchman (31)
Brandon Laird (26)
Lyle Overbay (37)
Carlos Pena (36)
....................................................................................

Secondbaseman

*Robinson Cano (31): 8 years / 25M AAV
*Omar Infante(32): 4 years / 9M AAV
*Mark Ellis (37): 1 year / 5.5M AAV

Other 2Bman - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Alexi Casilla (29)
Jamey Carroll (40)
Alberto Gonzalez (31)
Kelly Johnson (32)
Nick Punto (36)
Brian Roberts (36)
Ryan Roberts (33)
Ramon Santiago (34)
Skip Schumaker (34)
Chris Valaika (28)
Josh Wilson (33)
...................................................................................

Shortstop

*Stephen Drew (31): 4 years / 11M AAV
*Jhonny Peralta (32): 2 years / 9M AAV

Other SS's - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Robert Andino (30)
Clint Barmes (35)
Willie Bloomquist (36)
Rafael Furcal (36)
Alex Gonzalez (36)
Nick Green (35)
Cesar Izturis (34)
John McDonald (39)
Brendan Ryan (32)
....................................................................................

Thirdbaseman

*Juan Uribe (34): 1 year / 9M AAV
Michael Young (37): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
Mark Reynolds (30): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
Kevin Youkilis (35): 1 year / 4.5M AAV

Other 3Bman - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Yuniesky Betancourt (32)
Wilson Betemit (32)
Eric Chavez (36)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (38)
Brandon Inge (37)
Brent Lillibridge (30)
Casey McGehee (31)
Placido Polanco (38)
....................................................................................

Outfielder

*Jacoby Ellsbury (30): 6 years / 18.5M AAV
*Shin-Soo Choo (31): 6 years / 16M AAV
*Curtis Granderson(33): 4 years / 16M AAV
*Carlos Beltran (37): 2 years /13.5M AAV
*Nelson Cruz (33): 2 years / 11M AAV
*Marlon Byrd (36): 2 years / 7M AAV
*Nate McLouth(32): 2 years / 6.5M AAV
*David Murphy (32): 1 year / 6M AAV
*Chris Young (30): 1 year / 5.5M AAV
*David DeJesus (34): 1 year / 5.5M AAV
Rajai Davis (33): 1 year / 3.5M AAV
Franklin Gutierrez (31): 1 year / 3.5M AAV

Other OF'ers - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Rick Ankiel (34)
Jason Bay (35)
Roger Bernadina (30)
Tyler Colvin (28)
Trevor Crowe (30)
Chris Dickerson (31)
Jeff Francoeur (30)
Reed Johnson (37)
Austin Kearns (34)
Darnell McDonald (35)
Laynce Nix (33)
Juan Pierre (36)
Grady Sizemore (31)
Andres Torres (36)
Casper Wells (29)
...................................................................................

Designated Hitter

*Kendrys Morales (30): 3 years / 11M AAV
Mike Morse (32): 1 year /4.5M AAV
Raul Ibanez (42): 1 year / 3.5M AAV
Jason Kubel (32): 1 year / 3.5M AAV

Other DH's - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Lance Berkman (37)
Shelley Duncan (34)
Travis Hafner (37)
Luke Scott (36)
Delmon Young (28)
......................................................................................

Starting Pitcher

*Hiroki Kuroda(39): 1 year / 15.5M AAV
*Matt Garza (30): 4 years / 13.5M AAV
*Ricky Nolasco(31): 4 years / 13.5M AAV
*Ervin Santana (31): 4 years / 13.5M AAV
*Ubaldo Jimenez(30): 3 years / 13.5M AAV
*A.J. Burnett(37): 2 years / 13.5M AAV
*Bronson Arroyo(37): 2 years / 11M AAV
*Scott Kazmir(30): 2 years / 9M AAV
*Scott Feldman(30): 2 years / 9M AAV
*Dan Haren (33): 2 years / 9M AAV
*Jason Hammel (31): 2 years / 9M AAV
*Jason Vargas (31): 2 years / 9M AAV
*Tim Hudson(38): 1 year / 9M AAV
*Gavin Floyd (31): 1 year / 9M AAV
*Josh Johnson(30): 1 year / 9M AAV
*Bartolo Colon (41): 1 year / 9M AAV
*Paul Maholm(32): 2 years / 7M AAV
Phil Hughes (28): 2 years / 7M AAV
Chris Capuano (35): 1 year / 6M AAV
Bruce Chen (37): 1 year / 5.5M AAV
Roberto Hernandez(33): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
Scott Baker (32): 1 year / 4.5M AAV plus incentives
Jake Westbrook (36): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
Roy Halladay (37): 1 year / 4.5M AAV plus incentives
Aaron Harang (36): 1 year / 3.5M AAV
Joe Saunders (33): 1 year / 3.5M AAV

Other SP'ers - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

Alfredo Aceves (31)
Erik Bedard (35)
Chris Carpenter (39)
Jeff Francis (33)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Jon Garland (34)
Chad Gaudin (31)
Philip Humber (31)
Jeff Karstens (31)
John Lannan (29)
Wade LeBlanc (29)
Colby Lewis (34)
Ted Lilly (38)
Shaun Marcum (32)
Jason Marquis (35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (33)
Randy Messenger (32)
Sean O'Sullivan (26)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Mike Pelfrey (30)
Clayton Richard (30)
Johan Santana (34)
Ryan Vogelsong (36)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Tsuyoshi Wada (33)
P.J. Walters (29)
Chien-Ming Wang (34)
Randy Wolf (37)
Barry Zito (36)
....................................................................................

Relief Pitcher

*Joe Nathan (39): 2 years / 13M AAV
*Grant Balfour (36): 2 years / 9M AAV
*Fernando Rodney (37): 2 years / 9M AAV
*Joel Hanrahan (32): 1 year / 7.5M AAV
*Brian Wilson (32): 1 year / 7.5M AAV
*Chris Perez (28): 2 years/7M AAV
*Edward Mujica (30): 2 years / 7M AAV
*Joaquin Benoit (36): 2 years / 7M AAV
Jesse Crain (32): 1 year / 5.5M AAV
Joe Smith (30): 3 years / 5M AAV
Boone Logan (29): 3 years / 4.5M AAV
Jose Veras (33): 2 years / 4.5M AAV
Scott Downs (38): 2 years / 4.5M AAV
Javier Lopez (36): 2 years / 4.5M AAV
Matt Belisle (34): 2 years / 4.5M AAV
Eric O'Flaherty (29): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
Kevin Gregg (36): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
Matt Thornton (37): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
LaTroy Hawkins (39): 1 year / 4.5M AAV
J.P. Howell (31): 2 years / 3.5M AAV
Oliver Perez (32): 2 years / 3.5M AAV
Francisco Rodriguez (31): 1 year / 3.5M AAV

Other RPer's - Less than 3.5M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:

David Aardsma (32)
Matt Albers (31)
Hector Ambriz (30)
Luis Ayala (36)
Rafael Betancourt (39)
Michael Bowden (27)
Shawn Camp (38)
Joba Chamberlain (28)
Todd Coffey (33)
Manny Corpas (31)
Octavio Dotel (40)
Kyle Farnsworth (38)
Frank Francisco (34)
Mike Gonzalez (36)
Matt Guerrier (35)
Rich Hill (34)
Phil Humber (30) Signed w/ OAK (Minor League Deal)
Kameron Loe (32)
Brandon Lyon (34)
Ryan Madson (33)
Jeff Manship (29)
Carlos Marmol (31)
Nick Masset (32)
Zach Miner (32)
Peter Moylan (35)
Brett Myers (33)
Darren Oliver (43)
Juan Carlos Oviedo (30)
Manny Parra (31)
David Purcey (32)
Chad Qualls (35)
J.C. Ramirez (25)
Jose Valverde (36)
Jamey Wright (39)
....................................................................................

*Indicates Top 50 Free Agent

Well, initial impression, I have fewer objections than I did last year.

I think you are light on Garza, Nolasco, and Ervin, both in years and dollars. I don't see the top tier of starting pitchers having to settle for 4 year deals or AAVs of $13.5M. I don't know what to do with Ubaldo, I wouldn't feel comfortable giving him a contract like that, but I suppose some team will.

I don't think any team is going to go to $13M for Joe Nathan. Seems like the "closer mythology" is fading away, so that seems too high.

I could see Choo getting a higher AAV than Ellsbury or at least as much, especially since they are so close in age. I thought Ellsbury was younger than he actually is. And, Choo will definitely get a higher AAV than Granderson. For me, Choo and Ellsbury are the clear top two OFs on the market.

Finally, I think Salty gets more than $9M AAV.


I'll update this with one more thought, I could see Tim Hudson getting more years and a higher AAV than 1 for $9M. If the medicals check out, then he could be a sneaky good value for some team.

[FoulBalz]

Im still willing to bet the under on Choo... less than 6 years and less than 16M per year.

This is Boros talk. He says it enough and people start believing it.

[Lark11]

"Rangers re-signed C Geovany Soto to a one-year, $3.05 million contract.
The deal, which includes incentives, guarantees Soto $300,000 more in base pay than he accepted to re-sign last winter. Soto played sporadically as A.J. Pierzynski's backup in 2013, batting .245 with a .794 OPS against primarily left-handed pitching. NBC Sports' Matthew Pouliot tabbed Soto as the 91st-best free agent on the market."

[kinsm]

Mike Puma of the New York Post is reporting Scott Boras is marketing Choo in the 6 year / 15 mil per - 5 year / 18 mil per range but it could go higher depending on interested parties.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting Ervin Santana is seeking a 5 year / 20 mil per contract, and Ricky Nolasco is seeking a 5 year / 16 mil per contract.

[kinsm]

Nov 3, 2013 20:43:38 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Nov 3, 2013 18:57:16 GMT -5 kinsm said:

--It's that time of the year again, here are my offseason contract predictions.

*Indicates Top 50 Free Agent

Well, initial impression, I have fewer objections than I did last year.

I think you are light on Garza, Nolasco, and Ervin, both in years and dollars. I don't see the top tier of starting pitchers having to settle for 4 year deals or AAVs of $13.5M. I don't know what to do with Ubaldo, I wouldn't feel comfortable giving him a contract like that, but I suppose some team will.

I don't think any team is going to go to $13M for Joe Nathan. Seems like the "closer mythology" is fading away, so that seems too high.

I could see Choo getting a higher AAV than Ellsbury or at least as much, especially since they are so close in age. I thought Ellsbury was younger than he actually is. And, Choo will definitely get a higher AAV than Granderson. For me, Choo and Ellsbury are the clear top two OFs on the market.

Finally, I think Salty gets more than $9M AAV.


I'll update this with one more thought, I could see Tim Hudson getting more years and a higher AAV than 1 for $9M. If the medicals check out, then he could be a sneaky good value for some team.

Every single one of those top tier starters has a question mark or two and none have the pedigree of a Greinke type pitcher, that's why I didn't give any of them 5 years. Though all it takes is 2 strongly interested partners, so I can definitely see one or two getting a 5th year at a higher AAV (likely Santana).

Joe Nathan declined his half of a 9M$ option, he should be able to find a raise on a 2 year deal.

I see no chance of Choo topping Ellsubury, but they could be close. I agree Choo and Ellsbury are clearly the top two, having Granderson at the same AAV does not change that since I have him signing a much shorter term deal. After the top two are gone there will still be plenty of suitors vying for his bat - his age/injury issue should prevent him from getting more than 4 years but he'll still get paid near top dollar.

Salty's .372 BABIP should keep his salary from climbing any higher than that, if he signs for 3 years instead of 4 like I have projected then yeah I can see the AAV higher.

Hudson's injury and age will likely keep him from signing for more than 1 year (possibly an option) at a similar AAV that he makes now.

[Lark11]

Nov 7, 2013 22:17:35 GMT -5 kinsm said:

Nov 3, 2013 20:43:38 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Well, initial impression, I have fewer objections than I did last year.

I think you are light on Garza, Nolasco, and Ervin, both in years and dollars. I don't see the top tier of starting pitchers having to settle for 4 year deals or AAVs of $13.5M. I don't know what to do with Ubaldo, I wouldn't feel comfortable giving him a contract like that, but I suppose some team will.

I don't think any team is going to go to $13M for Joe Nathan. Seems like the "closer mythology" is fading away, so that seems too high.

I could see Choo getting a higher AAV than Ellsbury or at least as much, especially since they are so close in age. I thought Ellsbury was younger than he actually is. And, Choo will definitely get a higher AAV than Granderson. For me, Choo and Ellsbury are the clear top two OFs on the market.

Finally, I think Salty gets more than $9M AAV.


I'll update this with one more thought, I could see Tim Hudson getting more years and a higher AAV than 1 for $9M. If the medicals check out, then he could be a sneaky good value for some team.

Every single one of those top tier starters has a question mark or two and none have the pedigree of a Greinke type pitcher, that's why I didn't give any of them 5 years. Though all it takes is 2 strongly interested partners, so I can definitely see one or two getting a 5th year at a higher AAV (likely Santana).

Joe Nathan declined his half of a 9M$ option, he should be able to find a raise on a 2 year deal.

I see no chance of Choo topping Ellsubury, but they could be close. I agree Choo and Ellsbury are clearly the top two, having Granderson at the same AAV does not change that since I have him signing a much shorter term deal. After the top two are gone there will still be plenty of suitors vying for his bat - his age/injury issue should prevent him from getting more than 4 years but he'll still get paid near top dollar.

Salty's .372 BABIP should keep his salary from climbing any higher than that, if he signs for 3 years instead of 4 like I have projected then yeah I can see the AAV higher.

Hudson's injury and age will likely keep him from signing for more than 1 year (possibly an option) at a similar AAV that he makes now.

The more I am reading about this free agent market and the amount of new revenue streaming into it, the more I wonder if this is going to be a year when the vast majority of players get more than we expect. Sounds like there is a lot of money ready to be spent and not many players on which to spend it.

[kinsm]

Definitely possible, I think anyone worthy of starting gets overpaid once they hit FA. Too many young players getting extensions prior to hitting FA makes each new class a little weaker.

[kinsm]

The 13 free agents who received a qualifying offer declined by today's 5 p.m. deadline. Any team who signs one of these 13 players will forfeit their first round draft pick, unless they have one of the top 11 picks in which case they'll forfeit their second round draft pick. If a qualifying offer free agent signs elsewhere, the player's former team will receive a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of the 2014 amateur draft.

[kinsm]

Marlon Byrd will sign with the Phillies - 2 years / 8 M AAV

[floydgator]

Jim Bowden put up his predictions for the top 50 FAs. According to Bowden, none of them aside from Choo are fits for the Reds.

[Lark11]

Nov 12, 2013 14:36:23 GMT -5 floydgator said:

Jim Bowden put up his predictions for the top 50 FAs. According to Bowden, none of them aside from Choo are fits for the Reds.

Must not be any toolsy outfielders available.

[kinsm]

CBS

Bronson Arroyo is in talks with the Twins on a potential 3 year deal, Gaylord Sports Management (Arroyo's agency) has turned over medical reports.

[kinsm]

Hudson's ankle must be fixed, that's a hell of a raise.

[kinsm]

Chris Carpenter has announced his retirement.