Minor League Updates 2018

[redsfanman]

I've got some time, I want to share my look at how some of the minor leaguers are doing. Facts, thoughts, opinions, whatever.

AAA Louisville Bats

3b/2b/SS Nick Senzel, 23 - Hitting .231 with a .315 OBP. 1 HR, 7 BB, 17 K. I think he'll be really good, but the numbers currently don't reflect it. I'm glad they didn't rush him to the majors, I think he is where he belongs at the moment. He's picked it up lately, but hopefully around the super two deadline he has crazy good numbers in AAA leaving no doubt that he has nothing left to prove there. Right now, well, I think he still has much to prove. When he gets called up he should be ready to play 2b and hit well every day.

INF/OF Rosell Herrera, 25 - Already called up, he surprised be me by doing pretty well, hitting .311 with a .373 OBP. He hit 16 homeruns back in single A in 2013, but hasn't hit more than 5 since. Three in Louisville to start the year. A switch hitter who has/can play nearly anywhere on the field. I'm curious how he does as a Reds utility player.

SS Blake Trahan, 25 - He now has his average and OBP both higher than he finished with last year in AA. Hitting .224 with a .345 OBP and no power obviously isn't great, but it'd be nice to see him do well.

INF/OF Brandon Dixon, 26 - I felt like the only person who didn't want him to make the Reds out of camp based on a remarkable spring, and he's mostly justified that opinion. He's hitting .293 with a .341 OBP... both respectable... but he's hit 1 HR with 2 BBs and 14 Ks. Still no plate discipline, at all. Definitely hasn't done much to justify a call up, in my opinion.

SP Robert Stephenson, 25 - He recently had a crazy start, what was it, 8 BB and 0 ERs in 4 innings? That's not the normal 'ignore that start and then...' kinda result, buuuuut.... Currently with a 2.95 ERA. 21.1 IP, 14 H, 3 HR, 17 BB, 20 K.

SP Jose Lopez, 24 - Not off to a terrific start in AAA with a 5.28 ERA in 15.1 IPs, but his 3 BBs and 13 Ks seem promising enough.

RP Tanner Rainey, 25 - His Reds debut was really ugly, but his AAA numbers are impressive - 7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 13 K. I'm really looking forward to seeing him return to the Reds. He'll probably always walk a bunch of hitters, but he's continually striking guys out at huge rates. He has great stuff, and shouldn't be written off for his early MLB struggles. And he's not just another minor league scrub, he's one of the higher upside bullpen arms to come through the Reds system in recent years.

RP Zack Weiss, 25 - He's pitched 5 innings with 3 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks. I think he's better than that, and certainly better than his infinite ERA in MLB. I'll be following his season. Maybe he returns to the Reds, maybe not, we'll see. Neither would really surprise me.

RP Jimmy Herget, 24 - I thought he'd debut before Weiss and Rainey, but he didn't. In 7.2 IPs he has 6 H, 1 BB, 7 Ks. He's still not on the 40 man roster, but at no point would I be surprised to see him debut for the Reds. Could be any day.


AA Pensacola
2b Shed Long, 22 - Hitting .361 with a .432 OBP, 9 BB and 16 Ks. It's a nice improvement in his second go around at AA. Hopefully he'll start hitting some homeruns, soon. I'm sure he'll join AAA Louisville at some point, it's just a question of whether it's midseason or as a corresponding move to Nick Senzel's promotion to the Reds.

SS Luis Gonzalez, 23 - A slick fielding no hit shortstop beginning this season in Daytona, he was promoted to AA Pensacola already, and has hit pretty well both places, now with 7 BBs and 11 Ks in 86 PAs split equally between the two levels. Currently a .349 OBP in AA. I definitely don't expect him to keep it up, but it's still a pleasant surprise.

INF Josh VanMeter, 23 - The guy traded for Rule 5 pick Luis Torrens last year, a potential utility player, he's hitting .305 with a .425 OBP in his second go-around at AA. 13 BB and 13 Ks. He's off to a really impressive start, might find himself promoted to AAA before long.

1b/OF Nick Longhi, 22 - The guy acquired from the Red Sox for international bonus pool money the team was banned from using, I think he needed Tommy John surgery shortly afterwards. Well, he's back, and hitting .311 with a .348 OBP. On the downside, he has 3 BBs and 13 Ks, not the best ratio. But, still, a solid if unremarkable start.

OF Aristides Aquino, 24 - Courtesy mention, he still can't hit AA pitching very well, and I remain skeptical he'll ever reach the majors, as I always have been.

SP Keury Mella, 24 - Back in AA, he's pitching pretty well, with a 1.35 ERA through 4 starts and 20 IPs. 16 H, 5 BB, 16 K. I sorta thought they would move him to the bullpen, as he's unlikely to ever start for the Reds, but whatever. It's nice to see him doing well.

SP Vladimir Gutierrez, 22 - He's doing alright, ish. 21.1 IPs with 5 BB, 18 K. But a 5.82 ERA. I think the peripherals are there for the big money Cuban prospect. I think he can do well this year, and despite his ERA nothing in his numbers changes that impression.

SP Jesus Reyes, 25 - Added to the 40 man roster this offseason, I believe he's a ground ball specialist. He's pitched 14.1 innings with 20 H, 4 BB, 18 Ks. Shrug. It just seems like a matter of time before he's moved to a bullpen.


A+ Daytona
C Tyler Stephenson, 21 - He's probably the biggest story, hitting .329 with a .415 OBP. 2 HR, 9 BB, 11 K, everything looks good. If he can stay healthy he should skyrocket up prospect lists by midseason. Hopefully he gets a midseason promotion to AA.

OF Taylor Trammell, 20 - He's only hitting .264 but has a .384 OBP, with 14 BBs and 16 Ks. I think he's headed for a big season, and I expect his average to come up. He's been caught stealing in 3/5 attempts.

2b Dilson Herrera, 24 - He's already proven, before his shoulder injuries, that he could hit in AAA, but is way back in high A ball. He's hitting .296 with a .359 OBP, and seems likely to be promoted if there's some, you know, organizational movement at 2b (Senzel, Long). He's hit a couple of homeruns.

OF Daniel Sweet, 23 - He might just be roster filler, but if you're going to fill a roster spot it helps to hit great. He's hitting .375 with a .493 OBP. 12 BB and 8 Ks. I think he's ready to fill in at AA now, too.

SP Tony Santillan, 21 - The top prospect has done nothing but impress, giving up 1 ER in 22.2 innings on 14 H, 5 BB, and 24 Ks. He's new to Daytona but is already knocking on the door for a promotion to Pensacola. Arguably the single most impressive pitching performance so far in the whole Reds farm system. Really good to see by the risky high upside draft gamble.

SP Wennington Romero, 20 - I don't know much about him but he's walked ONE batter and struck out 17 in 22.1 IP. Nice ratio. 20 hits and a 3.22 ERA. Nice start for the young guy who struggled a bit in Dayton last year.

SP Ryan Olson, 23 - A 13th round pick in 2016, I forget his story, I think he had TJ surgery. But now he's pitching pretty well. 2.35 ERA through 23 IP with 21 H, 7 BB, and 22 K.

RP Nick Howard, 25 - COURTESY MENTION! The former first round pick is pitching again. He's just not pitching well. Not atrocious historically bad where on earth is the strike zone bad, but normal bad. 7.2 IP, 15 H, 3 HR, 9 BB, and 5 K. Actually, I guess technically those are still the worst numbers in his career. Oh well.


A Dayton
SS Jeter Downs, 19 - He's hitting .286 with a .383 OBP, I'm very impressed. 1 HR and 9 SBs. 9 BBs and 18 Ks. I hope he brings down that strikeout rate a bit, but I'm impressed by the plate discipline he continues to show at a young age. I look forward to following him in the coming years.

CF Stuart Fairchild, 22 - Hitting .275 with a .359 OBP, a solid debut for the college draft pick. 9 BB and 20 Ks. I hope he earns a midseason promotion to Daytona, if not before.

CF Miles Gordon, 20 - Last year's breakout star for Billings, now getting his first look in Dayton. He's hit an atrocious .150 so far, but with a .282 OBP due to all his walks. He has 11 BBs and 18 Ks, and those walks lead the team. He's tied with Downs for the team lead with 9 stolen bases, despite only being on base ~20 times. I hope he picks it up, I'm rooting for him.

SS/2b Jose Israel Garcia, 20 - He's been terrible, but it's way too early to get worried, after all his time out of baseball. He has 1 BB and 13 Ks. One of the organization's top prospects for his upside.

C Hendrick Clementina, 21 - The guy the Reds got for Tony Cingrani, he's off to a pretty good start offensively, tied for the team lead with 2 HRs. He's hitting .368 with a .390 OBP in 41 PAs, with 2 BB and 8 Ks.

OF Michael Beltre, 22 - One of the organization's big raw skills guys, I think, like Jose Siri, he's off to a good start in his second go-around at Dayton, hitting .310 with a .459 OBP. He has 8 BBs and 7 Ks, after displaying pretty good plate discipline (but not much else!) last year. I hope he catches fire this year like Jose Siri did last year.

Not really much to say about Dayton's pitching. Hunter Greene is there, but due to inning limits and stuff like that he's more of a glorified long reliever working at scheduled intervals, throwing 6 innings over 3 starts and striking out most of the opponents who don't get hits. I'm happy Greene wasn't stuck in Extended Spring Training to begin the season, but they've seemingly determined something in between. The other starters have thrown between 14.1 and 21.1 innings.


Here's a list of a few names of guys who have pleasantly surprised me with impressive starts to the season...
-Tyler Stephenson
-Daniel Sweet
-Shed Long
-Josh VanMeter
-Tony Santillan
-Jeter Downs
-Tanner Rainey

[redsfanman]

Here's something new, a counter-list of people off to atrocious starts:

AAA Louisville
COF/CIF Patrick Kivlehan, 28 - After spending the 2017 season with the Reds and hitting some homeruns as a platoon bat, this year he's hitting .167 with a .255 OBP in 47 PAs in AAA. 0 HR, 2 BB, 15 K. At this point he's competing for his unconditional release more than a promotion.

C Stuart Turner, 26 - Hitting .132 with a .214 OBP, 3 BBs and 14 Ks. He's lucky he's a well regarded defensive catcher.

1b/OF Steve Selsky, 28 - Hitting .205 with a .326 OBP in 46 PAs so far, with 2 HR, 5 BB, 15 K. I guess it's not atrocious, but the 28 year old sure isn't off to a good start. It's in line with what he did last season, but much worse than he'd done previously with AAA Louisville.

AA Pensacola
RHP Daniel Wright, 27 - Back in AA, he's put up a 6.59 ERA with 8 HRs in 28.2 IPs. The next highest homerun total by a Blue Wahoos pitcher is 4.

SS Alfredo Rodriguez, 24 - He was 5/26 (.192) before getting hurt.

A+ Daytona
SS Carlos Rivero, 21 - He's 9/61 (.148) with 2 BBs and 22 Ks in 66 PAs. Clearly they need a shortstop after Luis Gonzalez was promoted... a bat not so much.

1b Bruce Yari, 23 - 6/44 for a .136 average, but a respectable .367 OBP. 15 BBs and 18 Ks in 60 PAs, 0 HR. Almost three times as many walks as hits.

C Cassidy Brown, 23 - 3/26, in line with last year's production for Dayton rather than 2016's with Billings.

C Chris Okey, 23 - 4/23, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 Ks. I hope his season comes around, but so far it's been pretty dreadful.

LHP Scott Moss, 23 - The 2016 4th round pick had a strong 2017 season with Dayton, but has a 6.75 ERA through 22.2 innings and 5 starts for Daytona. 4 HR, 7 BB, 23 Ks, and a 1.456 WHIP. I think he'll turn it around, though.

RHP Ty Boyles, 22 - He was alright-ish last year between Dayton and Daytona, but has a 9.88 ERA so far through 13.2 innings and 4 starts. 14 Ks, 2 BBs, 1 HR... but 23 hits and 15 ERs. I suspect he's been having some terrible BABIP luck, but nevertheless the ERA looks terrible.

RHP Nick Howard, 25 - Nearly every number is bad. 2.893 WHIP. 11.57 ERA. 11 BBs, 5 Ks.

Low A Dayton
SS Jose Israel Garcia, 20 - 15/84, hitting .179, with 2 BBs and 17 Ks. He's in his professional debut though, plenty of time to turn it around.

3b Leandro Santana, 21 - 8/58, 5 BBs, 27 Ks.

RHP Tyler Mondile, 20 - The 2016 6th round pick is having a rough full season debut, with a 10.62 ERA. 38 H in 20.1 innings.

RHP Mac Sceroler, 23 - 2017 5th round pick has a 6.00 ERA through 18 innings in his full season debut.

RHP Hunter Greene, 18 - 14.63 ERA, I think that leads the whole farm system?

[redsfanman]

Some updates to my list from a week ago, guys who I think deserve new or further recognition for some kinda change:

Low A Dayton Dragons
OF Stuart Fairchild, 22 - He's now hitting .305 with a .402 OBP, trending up.

OF Michael Beltre, 22 - He's keeping up his BB:K rate, with 13 BBs and 12 Ks. Hitting .362 with a ridiculous .500 OBP through 14 games, 61 PAs.

A+ Daytona
OF TJ Friedl, 22 - Last time he didn't get my attention at all, but now he's hitting .286 with a .405 OBP. 2 HR, 3 SB, 16 BB, 17 K. He's got the patience part around, and might be figuring out the hitting part too.

3b Mitch Nay, 24 - Previously excluded for his age, he's hitting .320 with a .380 OBP and 5 HRs in 108 PAs. Of course he's just minor league filler, though.

1b Ibandel Isabel, 23 - The guy acquired for Ariel Hernandez is hitting .341 with a .426 OBP in 47 PAs. 2 HR, 5 BB, 11 K.

AA Pensacola
INF Josh VanMeter, 23 - Now with 18 BBs and 14 Ks. Hitting .270 with a .409 OBP.

AAA Louisville
INF/OF Brandon Dixon, 26 - His BB:K rate has stayed pretty constant, last time 2 BBs and 14 Ks, now 4 BBs and 23 Ks.

RHP Tanner Rainey, 25 - Now 17 Ks in 9.2 innings.

[kinsm]

Kiv was already released

[redsfanman]

The Daytona Tortugas still have a few hitters having strong seasons:

CF Taylor Trammell, age 20, hitting .304 with a .412 OBP in 199 PAs. 6 HRs, 30 BBs, 40 Ks.

CF TJ Friedl, age 22, hitting .303 with a .415 OBP in 234 PAs. 3 HR, 10 SB, 33 BB, 37 Ks.

C Tyler Stephenson, age 20, hitting .275 with a .370 OBP in 200 PAs. 5 HR, 24 BB, 44 Ks.

In my opinion all three names above deserve midseason promotions to AA. There might be a case to leave Stephenson in Daytona until close to the end of the season, giving him more time to work on his catching, but the other two are presumably just counting down the days until the All Star Break. They currently are playing for a contending Daytona team, while Pensacola is far back in their division, and has little hope of winning a first half playoff spot.

1b Ibandel Isabel, age 23, is putting on a remarkable, albeit questionable, season. In 131 PAs he's only hitting .259 and has a respectable .344 OBP, with 13 BBs and 40 Ks... a fairly unimpressive ratio. But he's also hit a whopping 12 homeruns. Only a few other players in the system have half that many homeruns.

CF Jose Siri, age 22, I don't think you can mention his team without him. He's hitting an uninspiring .264 with a .283 OBP, with 3 BBs and 26 Ks in 93 PAs. Maybe it's related to his injury and his late start. I expected him to struggle like this when he reached AA, but I'm surprised to see him doing so badly in Daytona.

Several Dayton Dragon hitters are having impressive seasons too:

SS/2b Jeter Downs, 19 - He's cooled down a bit, hitting .259 with a .331 OBP, but with 7 HRs, 16 SB, 19 BB, and 49 Ks in 250 PAs. I think he should spend this whole season, his first full professional season, in Dayton, before opening next year in Daytona.

CF Stuart Fairchild, 22 - He's hitting .290 with a .382 OBP in 233 PAs. 6 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 55 K. He's ready for a midseason promotion to Daytona, likely around the All Star break. Presumably he'll start next season in AA.

CF Miles Gordon, 20 - He's had a low average all season in his first go around of full season ball, but has been drawing walks all season. Now with a .222 average and .305 OBP, so it's been improving. 23 BBs, 42 Ks in 222 PAs. 17 SBs. He needs to stay in Dayton all year, but I think he'll have decent numbers by the end.

RF Michael Beltre, 22 - He's quietly done really well, hitting .292 with a .402 OBP. 29 BBs, 37 Ks, 12 SB, 4 HR in 196 PAs. His first season in Dayton, last year, was a disappointment, after strong numbers in Billings in 2016. Hopefully he gets a midseason promotion to Daytona, too.

C Hendrick Clementina, 21 - He's been one of the pleasant surprises of the system, hitting .341 with a .414 OBP in 152 PAs. 17 BBs, 35 Ks, 9 HRs. Maybe he has to move to another position someday, but his hitting is a good sign. Probably deserves a midseason promotion to Daytona.

[cbassxu]

For a team that lacks CF options in the bigs and upper minors, I'm a little surprised they are taking things so slow with Friedl.  Not that I would expect him to be pushing the bigs this year but with his age and performance I figured they would really want him to spend a decent chunk in AA this year so he could potentially start next year in AAA. 

I'm not saying the Reds need to be like the Braves and bring up multiple guys who can't legally drink yet but it just seems like they move guys along so slowly.

[redsfanman]

Jun 12, 2018 10:44:32 GMT -5 cbassxu said:

For a team that lacks CF options in the bigs and upper minors, I'm a little surprised they are taking things so slow with Friedl.  Not that I would expect him to be pushing the bigs this year but with his age and performance I figured they would really want him to spend a decent chunk in AA this year so he could potentially start next year in AAA. 

I'm not saying the Reds need to be like the Braves and bring up multiple guys who can't legally drink yet but it just seems like they move guys along so slowly.

I think Friedl, like Trammell, maybe others (Stephenson, although development as a defensive catcher may be a key variable... maybe RHP Tony Santillan), will be promoted to AA midseason. They will spend a 'decent chunk' of the season in AA. Senzel, for example, spent half of last season at Daytona before spending the other half in AA, and started the next year in AAA.

The Daytona team is currently in a playoff run, of sorts, to secure a first-half playoff spot. The AA Pensacola team is already a ways back. I'm not sure whether the 'winning atmosphere' thing is a factor or not, but it wouldn't totally surprise me. Pensacola could make a similar run in the second half with the addition of Friedl, Trammell, Stephenson, and Santillan.

I don't have any strong opinion over when they should be promoted, other than that it'd be crazy to leave Friedl and Trammell out of the midseason reshuffling. Probably Santillan too. If they said something about Daytona makes it a superior place for Tyler Stephenson to work on catching than Pensacola, I could accept that. Catching is hard to learn, develop.

I think Friedl, in particular, will be under a LOT of pressure with the leap to AA. If Trammell, Stephenson, Santillan struggle... they're all young, really high upside, most would understand. Worst case scenario they'd return to AA in 2019, with a fresh start (see Shed Long, who struggled in AA last year, but few seemed to care), but I doubt it'd really be seen as a big deal, at their ages. Few intelligent people would write them off. Friedl, on the other hand, I think needs to regularly fight to escape allegations that he's a 'tweener', 4th OF, and so on. Any regard we have for him is based on his success, production, especially OBP, in my opinion... rather than raw skills and scouting reports. On a stat sheet Friedl looks a little like Trammell, but he simply isn't. Trammell is an elite prospect, while Friedl is the kinda guy who'll be written off at the first sign of struggle. I'm excited to see how Friedl does in AA, but he really will need to do well for people to see him as a serious big leaguer. His second half should have a huge impact on how people regard him. I hope he's ready to live up to that...

[redsfanman]

The Midwest League (Dayton) All Star Game is on June 19th, and will feature CF Stuart Fairchild, C Hendrick Clementina, and others.

The Florida State League (Daytona) All Star Game is on June 16th, and will feature CF Taylor Trammell, CF TJ Friedl, C Tyler Stephenson, RHP Tony Santillan, and others.

The Southern League (Pensacola) All Star Game is on June 19th, and will feature 2b Shed Long, RHP Keury Mella, and OF Aristides Aquino.

The Billings Mustangs start their season tonight, June 15th.

The Greeneville Reds play their first game... ever... on June 19th.

The Arizona League Reds start their season on June 18th.

The grand shuffling should come in the next few day, as many of those organizational All Stars get midseason promotions together.

[redsfanman]

We've reached the middle of the minor league season, I thought I'd write some about some of the minor league players again.

AAA Louisville Bats

2b/3b Nick Senzel, 23 - He's presumably finished for the year, unless he can get in a few August games following rehab of his fractured finger. Then it seems highly likely he'll head to the Arizona Fall League, which I'm excited to see. I think he's likely to crack the top 5 on prospect lists despite his injury. And nearly certain to enter next year among the top 10. Not that that really matters.

2b Dilson Herrera, 24 - He's really knocking on the door, hitting .299 with a .373 OBP since returning to AAA. He's hit well in AAA before he hurt his shoulder, but it'll be interesting to see how he does with the Reds later this season. I suspect he'll be a September call-up, if nothing sooner. Or perhaps a trade chip.

C Chadwick Tromp, 23 - Arguably a nobody coming into this season, he's had a solid year between AA and AAA, hitting .263 with a .350 OBP between the two levels, with decent plate discipline. With the struggles (Turner, Okey...) and dumping (Mesoraco, Cruz...) of others, he might now be the Reds' third catcher, behind Barnhart and Casali.

RHP Robert Stephenson, 25 - He's had his ups and downs this year, throwing 75 innings with a 3.72 ERA, 56 H, 43 BB, 91 K, and a 1.320 WHIP. I'm hoping that he's next into the Reds rotation, when Matt Harvey is inevitably traded. Which I hope happens sooner rather than later, so Stephenson can get more starts.

LHP Cody Reed, 25 - He's quietly been alright...ish... 62 IPs, 68 H, 21 BB, 54 K, 3.92 ERA, and a 1.425 WHIP. I suspect he'll work out of the bullpen as a September call-up, as a short reliever, and that'll be interesting to see.

LHP Brandon Finnegan, 25 - Rather than simply not showing development, since returning from his injury he just hasn't pitched as well as he used to, now being pulled from their rotation. He's shown in the past that he can be a strong reliever, but I seriously doubt his role (starting pitcher) was the issue that had him performing so much worse than he performed as a MLB starting pitcher. Hopefully he recovers his stuff as he throws more pitches, strengthens his arm. Like Amir Garrett, I'd still like Finnegan to get a fair shot at a rotation spot next spring.

RHP Jackson Stephens, 24 - I think he's found his niche as a reliever, now pitching 17.2 innings for the Reds this year with 19 H, 2 BB, and 15 Ks. I think he's been better than people generally give him credit for, in a small sample size. We've seen lots of bad relievers in Cincinnati in recent years, but I've liked what I've seen from Stephens. That said, I think his career as a starting pitching is now over.

RHP Tanner Rainey, 25 - 27.2 IPs, 12 H, 22 BB, 42 K. He's striking out 13.7 per 9 innings, but walking 6.8/9. I hope he can improve his control, as that's the only thing keeping him from being a successful big leaguer. His brief MLB appearances haven't gone well, but it's way too early to write him off.

RHP Jimmy Herget, 24 - I really thought we'd see him early this season, but that hasn't been necessary. He's pitched 33.2 innings with a 3.48 ERA, 32 H, 4 HR, 13 BB, 38 K. Not bad, but not terrific.

RHP Kevin Quackenbush, 29 - I was strongly opposed to Quackenbush getting a job this spring, as I thought he wasn't particularly good, was worse than other internal options, and was a poor fit for Great American Ballpark. He has, however, been exceptional for AAA Louisville, throwing 22.2 innings with 19 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, and 26 K. I seriously doubt he's getting another shot with the Reds, so I'm surprised he hasn't requested/been granted his release to pursue a role with another team. I assume there's a team out there desperate enough for pitching help to give him a chance.

RHP Homer Bailey, 32 - I think he's pitched his final game with the Reds, how his Reds career comes to an end is just a matter of a procedural move.

AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos

2b Shed Long, 22 - I don't think he's really lived up to the hype, with a solid but unremarkable year in AA. He's hitting .274 with a .367 OBP and 7 HRs, and I'm not terribly surprised to see him sticking around AA.

RF Narcisco Crook, 22 - One of the Reds' low-production-high skills toolshed prospects, he's hit .364 with a .440 OBP in 16 games in AA. Yeah, small sample size, but any kinda production is nice to see from a guy like him. Hopefully it's a positive sign that he's starting to refine his skills in a useful way.

CF Jose Siri, 22 - A 40 man roster member, after recently showing he lacked the plate discipline to succeed in Daytona, he was promoted to Pensacola anyway. He has now hit 3 HRs in 28 plate appearances, with 2 BBs and 13 Ks. I'm really skeptical of his ability to hit AA pitching, lacking any semblance of plate discipline, but we'll see. His speed, arm, and defense do put less pressure on his bat than many OFs.

OF TJ Friedl, 22 - Recently promoted to AA, he has 5 BBs and 3 Ks, and 4 SBs, in 33 PAs. Obviously early, but he's showing early signs of having the plate discipline and bat to succeed there. Hopefully he tears it up and starts 2019 playing CF in Louisville. I'm really rooting for him. It'll also be interesting to see where he shows up on Reds prospect lists. Top 10? Top 5?

1b/3b Gavin LaValley, 23 - It's been a rough year for LaValley, who's hit AA pitching worse in his second go-around, after a strong first half last year in Daytona. He's hitting .205 with a .294 OBP and 6 HRs.

RF Aristides Aquino, 24 - After 195 games and 746 PAs in AA he's shown no noteworthy progress, failing to reach a .300 OBP. As a bat first prospect he really needs to hit, and he's failed to make contact much at all, despite his 26 homeruns in those 746 PAs. He's still on the Reds' 40 man roster, but should be DFA'd this winter if not before. Heck, do it immediately, or next time a roster spot is needed.

C Chris Okey, 23 - A celebrated draft pick, he has been terrible. After being a fairly safe pick who could hit and catch, at this point it's hard to imagine him being anything but a total bust.

RHP Keury Mella, 24 - He continues to have a strong season, with a 3.20 ERA in 78.2 innings. I'm surprised he hasn't been promoted to AAA Louisville. I suspect he'll again be a September call-up out of the bullpen.

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, 22 - He's having a rough season with a 5.33 ERA, including 13 homeruns in 77.2 innings, but his peripherals are better than that. He's really young, though.

[Lark11]

Stephenson has a 5.2 BB/9 in triple-A this season. He hasn't improved and hasn't earned a promotion. He can stay there until he figures it out. No reason to expect him to be good at the MLB when he hasn't been good at the Triple-A level.

Earn it, Bob.

[floydgator]

After his dreadful start, hunter Greene has been really good over his last 8-9 starts.

[floydgator]

And Taylor Trammell has been raking.

[cbassxu]

Jun 29, 2018 17:06:05 GMT -5 redsfanman said:

We've reached the middle of the minor league season, I thought I'd write some about some of the minor league players again.

RHP Jackson Stephens, 24 - I think he's found his niche as a reliever, now pitching 17.2 innings for the Reds this year with 19 H, 2 BB, and 15 Ks. I think he's been better than people generally give him credit for, in a small sample size. We've seen lots of bad relievers in Cincinnati in recent years, but I've liked what I've seen from Stephens. That said, I think his career as a starting pitching is now over.

OF TJ Friedl, 22 - Recently promoted to AA, he has 5 BBs and 3 Ks, and 4 SBs, in 33 PAs. Obviously early, but he's showing early signs of having the plate discipline and bat to succeed there. Hopefully he tears it up and starts 2019 playing CF in Louisville. I'm really rooting for him. It'll also be interesting to see where he shows up on Reds prospect lists. Top 10? Top 5?

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, 22 - He's having a rough season with a 5.33 ERA, including 13 homeruns in 77.2 innings, but his peripherals are better than that. He's really young, though.

Completely agree on Stephens.  I think his make-up and stuff will play well out of the pen and I look forward to see him continue to get those looks in the bigs.

Love Friedl and was really glad to see him moved up at the ASB.   I think his ceiling will always keep him from the upper echelon of the prospect rankings, even within the system, but I really like what he brings and hopefully he keeps progressing and we can see him at some point next season. 

Gutierrez has definitely had a rough season, but he put together a really good start last nigh, 6 shutout inning with 5 K's.  In his 5 June starts (not counting last night's good outing), he had an ERA of 3.2 and an opponent BAA of .183.  Hopefully he found something and continues more on that route the rest of the  season. 

Reds really need Vlad or Jose Garcia to make some strides because it's pretty painful watching all the international signings this week that the Reds can't compete in because of their overages for those guys (and Alfredo Rodriguez who basically isn't a prospect at this stage IMO). 

[cbassxu]

Jun 30, 2018 15:08:20 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Stephenson has a 5.2 BB/9 in triple-A this season. He hasn't improved and hasn't earned a promotion. He can stay there until he figures it out. No reason to expect him to be good at the MLB when he hasn't been good at the Triple-A level.

Earn it, Bob.

Last 10 starts:

6-3, 3.05 ERA, 24 walks, 72 Ks

I think that also coincides (or is close) to timing for him switching to pitching exclusively from the stretch. 

Assuming he maintains that pace, I think he's earned the right to take Harvey's spot once he's moved.

[redsfanman]

Now in early August, there are a few guys I want to write a bit about...

CF Jose Siri, 23, I've long been a big doubter, thinking that his lack of plate discipline would really hold him back. He surprised me at first with some crazy numbers in AA - a bunch of homeruns with way too many strikeouts, and a sub-.300 OBP. Like, both hitting for a ton of power and also not hitting. Lately he's been walking a lot, which is the biggest news of all, to me. After walking 4 times in 126 PAs for A+ Daytona he's now walked 17 times in 186 PAs for AA Pensacola. He's now at 21 BBs on the year over 312 PAs, after drawing 33 BBs last year in 552 for single A Dayton. Obviously nobody is going to confuse him for Jesse Winker or Joey Votto, but even a slight increase in walk rate as he's started to face much more professional pitching really surprised me. For the first time I think he might be capable of the adjustments needed to cut it at the MLB level. Albeit as an elite defender with good speed and average power, rather than an OBP machine. He's obviously still struck out a lot, and that'll always be part of his game, I think. At this rate I'm excited to see how he does in 2019 in AAA, and would consider him for a September call-up this year.

CF TJ Friedl, 22 (23 this week), he continues to impress, with his .287 average and .377 OBP in AA, similar to his Daytona production. I'm really looking forward to seeing him in AAA Louisville next year. I don't think he'll block Siri or Taylor Trammell, but he looks like he could be an interesting CF option by early 2019. Who probably fields the position a lot better than Ervin, Schebler, or Senzel could.

RF Michael Beltre, 23, has matched his Dayton production in Daytona, continuing to reach base at a ~.400 OBP. Not bad, for an under-the-radar guy who feels like he came out of nowhere. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in AA in 2019, with his great plate discipline.

CF Mike Siani, 19, pre-draft scouting reports expressed major concerns about his bat, so I was pessimistic, but he's gotten off to a remarkable start to his big league career, alleviating some of those concerns I had. I'm really excited to see him in Dayton next year.