Post by redsfanman on Apr 27, 2018 17:21:01 GMT -5
I've got some time, I want to share my look at how some of the minor leaguers are doing. Facts, thoughts, opinions, whatever.
AAA Louisville Bats
3b/2b/SS Nick Senzel, 23 - Hitting .231 with a .315 OBP. 1 HR, 7 BB, 17 K. I think he'll be really good, but the numbers currently don't reflect it. I'm glad they didn't rush him to the majors, I think he is where he belongs at the moment. He's picked it up lately, but hopefully around the super two deadline he has crazy good numbers in AAA leaving no doubt that he has nothing left to prove there. Right now, well, I think he still has much to prove. When he gets called up he should be ready to play 2b and hit well every day.
INF/OF Rosell Herrera, 25 - Already called up, he surprised be me by doing pretty well, hitting .311 with a .373 OBP. He hit 16 homeruns back in single A in 2013, but hasn't hit more than 5 since. Three in Louisville to start the year. A switch hitter who has/can play nearly anywhere on the field. I'm curious how he does as a Reds utility player.
SS Blake Trahan, 25 - He now has his average and OBP both higher than he finished with last year in AA. Hitting .224 with a .345 OBP and no power obviously isn't great, but it'd be nice to see him do well.
INF/OF Brandon Dixon, 26 - I felt like the only person who didn't want him to make the Reds out of camp based on a remarkable spring, and he's mostly justified that opinion. He's hitting .293 with a .341 OBP... both respectable... but he's hit 1 HR with 2 BBs and 14 Ks. Still no plate discipline, at all. Definitely hasn't done much to justify a call up, in my opinion.
SP Robert Stephenson, 25 - He recently had a crazy start, what was it, 8 BB and 0 ERs in 4 innings? That's not the normal 'ignore that start and then...' kinda result, buuuuut.... Currently with a 2.95 ERA. 21.1 IP, 14 H, 3 HR, 17 BB, 20 K.
SP Jose Lopez, 24 - Not off to a terrific start in AAA with a 5.28 ERA in 15.1 IPs, but his 3 BBs and 13 Ks seem promising enough.
RP Tanner Rainey, 25 - His Reds debut was really ugly, but his AAA numbers are impressive - 7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 13 K. I'm really looking forward to seeing him return to the Reds. He'll probably always walk a bunch of hitters, but he's continually striking guys out at huge rates. He has great stuff, and shouldn't be written off for his early MLB struggles. And he's not just another minor league scrub, he's one of the higher upside bullpen arms to come through the Reds system in recent years.
RP Zack Weiss, 25 - He's pitched 5 innings with 3 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks. I think he's better than that, and certainly better than his infinite ERA in MLB. I'll be following his season. Maybe he returns to the Reds, maybe not, we'll see. Neither would really surprise me.
RP Jimmy Herget, 24 - I thought he'd debut before Weiss and Rainey, but he didn't. In 7.2 IPs he has 6 H, 1 BB, 7 Ks. He's still not on the 40 man roster, but at no point would I be surprised to see him debut for the Reds. Could be any day.
AA Pensacola
2b Shed Long, 22 - Hitting .361 with a .432 OBP, 9 BB and 16 Ks. It's a nice improvement in his second go around at AA. Hopefully he'll start hitting some homeruns, soon. I'm sure he'll join AAA Louisville at some point, it's just a question of whether it's midseason or as a corresponding move to Nick Senzel's promotion to the Reds.
SS Luis Gonzalez, 23 - A slick fielding no hit shortstop beginning this season in Daytona, he was promoted to AA Pensacola already, and has hit pretty well both places, now with 7 BBs and 11 Ks in 86 PAs split equally between the two levels. Currently a .349 OBP in AA. I definitely don't expect him to keep it up, but it's still a pleasant surprise.
INF Josh VanMeter, 23 - The guy traded for Rule 5 pick Luis Torrens last year, a potential utility player, he's hitting .305 with a .425 OBP in his second go-around at AA. 13 BB and 13 Ks. He's off to a really impressive start, might find himself promoted to AAA before long.
1b/OF Nick Longhi, 22 - The guy acquired from the Red Sox for international bonus pool money the team was banned from using, I think he needed Tommy John surgery shortly afterwards. Well, he's back, and hitting .311 with a .348 OBP. On the downside, he has 3 BBs and 13 Ks, not the best ratio. But, still, a solid if unremarkable start.
OF Aristides Aquino, 24 - Courtesy mention, he still can't hit AA pitching very well, and I remain skeptical he'll ever reach the majors, as I always have been.
SP Keury Mella, 24 - Back in AA, he's pitching pretty well, with a 1.35 ERA through 4 starts and 20 IPs. 16 H, 5 BB, 16 K. I sorta thought they would move him to the bullpen, as he's unlikely to ever start for the Reds, but whatever. It's nice to see him doing well.
SP Vladimir Gutierrez, 22 - He's doing alright, ish. 21.1 IPs with 5 BB, 18 K. But a 5.82 ERA. I think the peripherals are there for the big money Cuban prospect. I think he can do well this year, and despite his ERA nothing in his numbers changes that impression.
SP Jesus Reyes, 25 - Added to the 40 man roster this offseason, I believe he's a ground ball specialist. He's pitched 14.1 innings with 20 H, 4 BB, 18 Ks. Shrug. It just seems like a matter of time before he's moved to a bullpen.
A+ Daytona
C Tyler Stephenson, 21 - He's probably the biggest story, hitting .329 with a .415 OBP. 2 HR, 9 BB, 11 K, everything looks good. If he can stay healthy he should skyrocket up prospect lists by midseason. Hopefully he gets a midseason promotion to AA.
OF Taylor Trammell, 20 - He's only hitting .264 but has a .384 OBP, with 14 BBs and 16 Ks. I think he's headed for a big season, and I expect his average to come up. He's been caught stealing in 3/5 attempts.
2b Dilson Herrera, 24 - He's already proven, before his shoulder injuries, that he could hit in AAA, but is way back in high A ball. He's hitting .296 with a .359 OBP, and seems likely to be promoted if there's some, you know, organizational movement at 2b (Senzel, Long). He's hit a couple of homeruns.
OF Daniel Sweet, 23 - He might just be roster filler, but if you're going to fill a roster spot it helps to hit great. He's hitting .375 with a .493 OBP. 12 BB and 8 Ks. I think he's ready to fill in at AA now, too.
SP Tony Santillan, 21 - The top prospect has done nothing but impress, giving up 1 ER in 22.2 innings on 14 H, 5 BB, and 24 Ks. He's new to Daytona but is already knocking on the door for a promotion to Pensacola. Arguably the single most impressive pitching performance so far in the whole Reds farm system. Really good to see by the risky high upside draft gamble.
SP Wennington Romero, 20 - I don't know much about him but he's walked ONE batter and struck out 17 in 22.1 IP. Nice ratio. 20 hits and a 3.22 ERA. Nice start for the young guy who struggled a bit in Dayton last year.
SP Ryan Olson, 23 - A 13th round pick in 2016, I forget his story, I think he had TJ surgery. But now he's pitching pretty well. 2.35 ERA through 23 IP with 21 H, 7 BB, and 22 K.
RP Nick Howard, 25 - COURTESY MENTION! The former first round pick is pitching again. He's just not pitching well. Not atrocious historically bad where on earth is the strike zone bad, but normal bad. 7.2 IP, 15 H, 3 HR, 9 BB, and 5 K. Actually, I guess technically those are still the worst numbers in his career. Oh well.
A Dayton
SS Jeter Downs, 19 - He's hitting .286 with a .383 OBP, I'm very impressed. 1 HR and 9 SBs. 9 BBs and 18 Ks. I hope he brings down that strikeout rate a bit, but I'm impressed by the plate discipline he continues to show at a young age. I look forward to following him in the coming years.
CF Stuart Fairchild, 22 - Hitting .275 with a .359 OBP, a solid debut for the college draft pick. 9 BB and 20 Ks. I hope he earns a midseason promotion to Daytona, if not before.
CF Miles Gordon, 20 - Last year's breakout star for Billings, now getting his first look in Dayton. He's hit an atrocious .150 so far, but with a .282 OBP due to all his walks. He has 11 BBs and 18 Ks, and those walks lead the team. He's tied with Downs for the team lead with 9 stolen bases, despite only being on base ~20 times. I hope he picks it up, I'm rooting for him.
SS/2b Jose Israel Garcia, 20 - He's been terrible, but it's way too early to get worried, after all his time out of baseball. He has 1 BB and 13 Ks. One of the organization's top prospects for his upside.
C Hendrick Clementina, 21 - The guy the Reds got for Tony Cingrani, he's off to a pretty good start offensively, tied for the team lead with 2 HRs. He's hitting .368 with a .390 OBP in 41 PAs, with 2 BB and 8 Ks.
OF Michael Beltre, 22 - One of the organization's big raw skills guys, I think, like Jose Siri, he's off to a good start in his second go-around at Dayton, hitting .310 with a .459 OBP. He has 8 BBs and 7 Ks, after displaying pretty good plate discipline (but not much else!) last year. I hope he catches fire this year like Jose Siri did last year.
Not really much to say about Dayton's pitching. Hunter Greene is there, but due to inning limits and stuff like that he's more of a glorified long reliever working at scheduled intervals, throwing 6 innings over 3 starts and striking out most of the opponents who don't get hits. I'm happy Greene wasn't stuck in Extended Spring Training to begin the season, but they've seemingly determined something in between. The other starters have thrown between 14.1 and 21.1 innings.
Here's a list of a few names of guys who have pleasantly surprised me with impressive starts to the season...
-Tyler Stephenson
-Daniel Sweet
-Shed Long
-Josh VanMeter
-Tony Santillan
-Jeter Downs
-Tanner Rainey
AAA Louisville Bats
3b/2b/SS Nick Senzel, 23 - Hitting .231 with a .315 OBP. 1 HR, 7 BB, 17 K. I think he'll be really good, but the numbers currently don't reflect it. I'm glad they didn't rush him to the majors, I think he is where he belongs at the moment. He's picked it up lately, but hopefully around the super two deadline he has crazy good numbers in AAA leaving no doubt that he has nothing left to prove there. Right now, well, I think he still has much to prove. When he gets called up he should be ready to play 2b and hit well every day.
INF/OF Rosell Herrera, 25 - Already called up, he surprised be me by doing pretty well, hitting .311 with a .373 OBP. He hit 16 homeruns back in single A in 2013, but hasn't hit more than 5 since. Three in Louisville to start the year. A switch hitter who has/can play nearly anywhere on the field. I'm curious how he does as a Reds utility player.
SS Blake Trahan, 25 - He now has his average and OBP both higher than he finished with last year in AA. Hitting .224 with a .345 OBP and no power obviously isn't great, but it'd be nice to see him do well.
INF/OF Brandon Dixon, 26 - I felt like the only person who didn't want him to make the Reds out of camp based on a remarkable spring, and he's mostly justified that opinion. He's hitting .293 with a .341 OBP... both respectable... but he's hit 1 HR with 2 BBs and 14 Ks. Still no plate discipline, at all. Definitely hasn't done much to justify a call up, in my opinion.
SP Robert Stephenson, 25 - He recently had a crazy start, what was it, 8 BB and 0 ERs in 4 innings? That's not the normal 'ignore that start and then...' kinda result, buuuuut.... Currently with a 2.95 ERA. 21.1 IP, 14 H, 3 HR, 17 BB, 20 K.
SP Jose Lopez, 24 - Not off to a terrific start in AAA with a 5.28 ERA in 15.1 IPs, but his 3 BBs and 13 Ks seem promising enough.
RP Tanner Rainey, 25 - His Reds debut was really ugly, but his AAA numbers are impressive - 7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 13 K. I'm really looking forward to seeing him return to the Reds. He'll probably always walk a bunch of hitters, but he's continually striking guys out at huge rates. He has great stuff, and shouldn't be written off for his early MLB struggles. And he's not just another minor league scrub, he's one of the higher upside bullpen arms to come through the Reds system in recent years.
RP Zack Weiss, 25 - He's pitched 5 innings with 3 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks. I think he's better than that, and certainly better than his infinite ERA in MLB. I'll be following his season. Maybe he returns to the Reds, maybe not, we'll see. Neither would really surprise me.
RP Jimmy Herget, 24 - I thought he'd debut before Weiss and Rainey, but he didn't. In 7.2 IPs he has 6 H, 1 BB, 7 Ks. He's still not on the 40 man roster, but at no point would I be surprised to see him debut for the Reds. Could be any day.
AA Pensacola
2b Shed Long, 22 - Hitting .361 with a .432 OBP, 9 BB and 16 Ks. It's a nice improvement in his second go around at AA. Hopefully he'll start hitting some homeruns, soon. I'm sure he'll join AAA Louisville at some point, it's just a question of whether it's midseason or as a corresponding move to Nick Senzel's promotion to the Reds.
SS Luis Gonzalez, 23 - A slick fielding no hit shortstop beginning this season in Daytona, he was promoted to AA Pensacola already, and has hit pretty well both places, now with 7 BBs and 11 Ks in 86 PAs split equally between the two levels. Currently a .349 OBP in AA. I definitely don't expect him to keep it up, but it's still a pleasant surprise.
INF Josh VanMeter, 23 - The guy traded for Rule 5 pick Luis Torrens last year, a potential utility player, he's hitting .305 with a .425 OBP in his second go-around at AA. 13 BB and 13 Ks. He's off to a really impressive start, might find himself promoted to AAA before long.
1b/OF Nick Longhi, 22 - The guy acquired from the Red Sox for international bonus pool money the team was banned from using, I think he needed Tommy John surgery shortly afterwards. Well, he's back, and hitting .311 with a .348 OBP. On the downside, he has 3 BBs and 13 Ks, not the best ratio. But, still, a solid if unremarkable start.
OF Aristides Aquino, 24 - Courtesy mention, he still can't hit AA pitching very well, and I remain skeptical he'll ever reach the majors, as I always have been.
SP Keury Mella, 24 - Back in AA, he's pitching pretty well, with a 1.35 ERA through 4 starts and 20 IPs. 16 H, 5 BB, 16 K. I sorta thought they would move him to the bullpen, as he's unlikely to ever start for the Reds, but whatever. It's nice to see him doing well.
SP Vladimir Gutierrez, 22 - He's doing alright, ish. 21.1 IPs with 5 BB, 18 K. But a 5.82 ERA. I think the peripherals are there for the big money Cuban prospect. I think he can do well this year, and despite his ERA nothing in his numbers changes that impression.
SP Jesus Reyes, 25 - Added to the 40 man roster this offseason, I believe he's a ground ball specialist. He's pitched 14.1 innings with 20 H, 4 BB, 18 Ks. Shrug. It just seems like a matter of time before he's moved to a bullpen.
A+ Daytona
C Tyler Stephenson, 21 - He's probably the biggest story, hitting .329 with a .415 OBP. 2 HR, 9 BB, 11 K, everything looks good. If he can stay healthy he should skyrocket up prospect lists by midseason. Hopefully he gets a midseason promotion to AA.
OF Taylor Trammell, 20 - He's only hitting .264 but has a .384 OBP, with 14 BBs and 16 Ks. I think he's headed for a big season, and I expect his average to come up. He's been caught stealing in 3/5 attempts.
2b Dilson Herrera, 24 - He's already proven, before his shoulder injuries, that he could hit in AAA, but is way back in high A ball. He's hitting .296 with a .359 OBP, and seems likely to be promoted if there's some, you know, organizational movement at 2b (Senzel, Long). He's hit a couple of homeruns.
OF Daniel Sweet, 23 - He might just be roster filler, but if you're going to fill a roster spot it helps to hit great. He's hitting .375 with a .493 OBP. 12 BB and 8 Ks. I think he's ready to fill in at AA now, too.
SP Tony Santillan, 21 - The top prospect has done nothing but impress, giving up 1 ER in 22.2 innings on 14 H, 5 BB, and 24 Ks. He's new to Daytona but is already knocking on the door for a promotion to Pensacola. Arguably the single most impressive pitching performance so far in the whole Reds farm system. Really good to see by the risky high upside draft gamble.
SP Wennington Romero, 20 - I don't know much about him but he's walked ONE batter and struck out 17 in 22.1 IP. Nice ratio. 20 hits and a 3.22 ERA. Nice start for the young guy who struggled a bit in Dayton last year.
SP Ryan Olson, 23 - A 13th round pick in 2016, I forget his story, I think he had TJ surgery. But now he's pitching pretty well. 2.35 ERA through 23 IP with 21 H, 7 BB, and 22 K.
RP Nick Howard, 25 - COURTESY MENTION! The former first round pick is pitching again. He's just not pitching well. Not atrocious historically bad where on earth is the strike zone bad, but normal bad. 7.2 IP, 15 H, 3 HR, 9 BB, and 5 K. Actually, I guess technically those are still the worst numbers in his career. Oh well.
A Dayton
SS Jeter Downs, 19 - He's hitting .286 with a .383 OBP, I'm very impressed. 1 HR and 9 SBs. 9 BBs and 18 Ks. I hope he brings down that strikeout rate a bit, but I'm impressed by the plate discipline he continues to show at a young age. I look forward to following him in the coming years.
CF Stuart Fairchild, 22 - Hitting .275 with a .359 OBP, a solid debut for the college draft pick. 9 BB and 20 Ks. I hope he earns a midseason promotion to Daytona, if not before.
CF Miles Gordon, 20 - Last year's breakout star for Billings, now getting his first look in Dayton. He's hit an atrocious .150 so far, but with a .282 OBP due to all his walks. He has 11 BBs and 18 Ks, and those walks lead the team. He's tied with Downs for the team lead with 9 stolen bases, despite only being on base ~20 times. I hope he picks it up, I'm rooting for him.
SS/2b Jose Israel Garcia, 20 - He's been terrible, but it's way too early to get worried, after all his time out of baseball. He has 1 BB and 13 Ks. One of the organization's top prospects for his upside.
C Hendrick Clementina, 21 - The guy the Reds got for Tony Cingrani, he's off to a pretty good start offensively, tied for the team lead with 2 HRs. He's hitting .368 with a .390 OBP in 41 PAs, with 2 BB and 8 Ks.
OF Michael Beltre, 22 - One of the organization's big raw skills guys, I think, like Jose Siri, he's off to a good start in his second go-around at Dayton, hitting .310 with a .459 OBP. He has 8 BBs and 7 Ks, after displaying pretty good plate discipline (but not much else!) last year. I hope he catches fire this year like Jose Siri did last year.
Not really much to say about Dayton's pitching. Hunter Greene is there, but due to inning limits and stuff like that he's more of a glorified long reliever working at scheduled intervals, throwing 6 innings over 3 starts and striking out most of the opponents who don't get hits. I'm happy Greene wasn't stuck in Extended Spring Training to begin the season, but they've seemingly determined something in between. The other starters have thrown between 14.1 and 21.1 innings.
Here's a list of a few names of guys who have pleasantly surprised me with impressive starts to the season...
-Tyler Stephenson
-Daniel Sweet
-Shed Long
-Josh VanMeter
-Tony Santillan
-Jeter Downs
-Tanner Rainey