With the 5th overall pick, the Reds (should) select...."

[Lark11]

Ok, last chance, who do you want the Reds to grab? Last chance to chime in! The two players in this draft who excite me the most are Jonathan India and Alec Bohm. Casey Mize does, too, but he's going to be off the board by the time the Reds draft.

I love India's well-rounded game. He hits for average, gets on base, hits for power, plays strong defense, has a strong arm, and runs the bases well. And, there's a real possibility that he can be shifted up the defensive spectrum to a middle infield position.

Part of me thinks everyone is simply overthinking things with India. The only things *not* to like with India are his strikeout rate is a touch high and his track record is that of two solid years and one great year. As for the former, his strikeout rate isn't massive and given his late-count approach and power generation, it's not damning. As for the latter, Jeff Luhnow once said that "uncertainty creates opportunity." In this instance, if India had had 2 or 3 seasons comparable to the performance level of his junior season, then he's probably going 1.1 overall. However, his breakout was only in his junior season, so some question whether it's sustainable. For the Reds, this uncertainty with India creates opportunity.

As for Alec Bohm, I just love the swing. It's balanced, fluid, controlled, and powerful. It's a swing you can dream on. For a righthanded hitter, he controls the strike zone very well and he has already figured out how to manage his height (6-5). The last time I was impressed by a taller hitter's ability to offset the disadvantages of his height, it was Aaron Judge. Bohm is a bit shorter than Judge and a bit farther along in his hitting. Bohm hits for average, controls the strikezone, and hits for big power. He may be a hitter who reaps all the benefits of his height without suffering any of the drawbacks.

Bohm also moves well and throws well for a player his size. At this point, he's only average or a touch below defensively at third and long-term he might end up at first base, but the bat is very intriguing.

In the end, I'm going with Jonathan India over Bohm. As much as I love Bohm's bat (and I think he could be a legitimate impact hitter at the MLB level), India does everything well and he actually posted a higher OBP (.502 v. .436) and slugging (.723 v. .625) than Bohm this past season. I wonder if India has a bit of Justin Turner to him, not just in how he hits but also in how he has to disprove the lingering critics.

If the Reds grab Jonathan India at 1.5, then I'll be very pleased. For posterity sake, here are my top 5 for the Reds at 1.5:

1) Casey Mize, RHP
2) Jonathan India, 3b
3) Alec Bohm, 3b
4) Matthew Liberatore, LHP
5) Carter Stewart, RHP

In the later rounds, I desperately want the Reds to grab one of Griffin Conine or Seth Beer. As for India and Bohm, I like them both a great deal. Beer has a better bat (though with questions about his wood-bat performance), while Conine has more a diversified skill set. (and fewer questions about his wood-bat performance).

In the end, I'd rate Conine a tick ahead and Beer just after that. Another player I'd like to see the Reds grab would be LHP Garrett McDaniels, who has a strong foundation and room for projection.

If the Reds can walk out of the first 2 rounds of the draft with Jonathan India (1.5; 5th overall), Griffin Conine (2.4; 47th overall), and Garrett McDaniels (Competitive Balance B, 4; 72nd overall), then I'll be a happy man.

Go forth and draft, Reds!!!

[redsfanman]

If we're recording it for posterity:

1) Casey Mise, RHP (won't happen, if he doesn't go 1-1 he'll go shortly after)

-----

2A) Nick Madrigal, 2b/SS

2B) Brady Singer, RHP

2C) Jonathan India, 3b/SS

-----

5) Matt Liberatore, LHP

6) Carter Stewart, RHP

I find myself pretty indifferent between Madrigal, India, and Singer. They each have their own pros and cons, but in my opinion have pretty darn equal appeal.

-Madrigal, arguably the best pure hitter in the draft class while playing up the middle. He's a safe bet to do well, at whichever position they chose. 2b is most obvious, but could be worth a look at CF or SS. I suspect many skeptics will see the worst aspects of Jose Peraza in him. He might debut in early 2020.

-India, perhaps the most rounded hitter in the draft class, possibly a fit at 2b, 3b, or SS... with nothing really keeping him from projecting well in the outfield, too, if it came to that. He can draw walks and hit for power, and is a proven SEC hitter... guys like that have a pretty good track record. He'll strike out some, but that's not a big deal. It sounds like he has a better chance than Madrigal of cutting it at shortstop, with a superior arm. No question, that's where I'd play him. In my opinion he's the most comparable guy in the class to Nick Senzel.

-Singer, in my opinion, is about the safest big league starter in the draft in recent years. Sure he throws from a three-quarters arm slot, but supporters at various publications have pointed out that Chris Sale and other successful big leaguers have done the same thing. There's been some critique of his repertoire, perhaps he doesn't throw hard enough, but others have compared his scouting report favorably to Aaron Nola. I'm not a scout, but even Lark says he has "clean mechanics and no obvious red flags" (as far as health). A pessimist who blames Reds personnel for the team's trouble with developing pitchers should find solace that Singer is nearly big league ready as is, rather than needing a lot of work, reinvention, or changes. There's little for any team, pitching coach, development staff to mess up. I suspect he'd spend all of 2019 in the minors, but that would be to work on pitching every 5th day and building up his inning totals, more than teaching him to throw strikes or add a new pitch he'd need before he can succeed. Singer has a pretty clean injury history. Of course all pitchers end up getting injured sometimes - some joke that there are two types of pitchers, ones who've had Tommy John surgery and others who will - but Singer seems like a relatively low risk guy in the pitching demographic, with a long track record of pitching and staying healthy. I like the Brady Singer-Mike Leake comparison in some ways, as a low risk guy nearly MLB ready on draft day, and able to hold up for ~200 inning seasons, but I think it sidetracks people other times in terms of ceiling (Mike Leake is a middle of the rotation starter!). From all I've heard I think Singer has Leake's rare pitchability and durability while having a higher ceiling. I think he would enter the rotation for good in early 2020, and a stabilizing force in the rotation is something the Reds really need.

If these guys are off the board, then maybe consider gambling on an upside high school arm like Liberatore and Stewart. Although those guys have a MUCH higher risk of going bust than the college players listed above. I don't think it's a matter of proper scouting of them, they're just risky. Maybe something happens to their shoulder (Gruler, Travieso), maybe their control vanishes or never develops (Howard, Stephenson).

I don't want Alec Bohm or Joey Bart. And I like the 6 guys above more than Kelenic. And given the options, I really don't like the idea of overdrafting a budget guy in hopes of floating somebody else down to #47. Maybe that'd be a good idea if they picked later or had another pick in the 30s, but 47 is a long way. It seems less likely to work successfully and more likely to blow up entirely, with two sub-standard picks.

[redsfanman]

Mostly from what I've read... in Jonathan India I see an infielder version of Andrew Benintendi, who was also a safe SEC hitter who skyrocketted up draft boards to do well, while now being a well rounded player and hitter who doesn't really excel in any certain area. Kinda also kinda like Nick Senzel, who also flew up draft boards without really having a single standout tool. I forget if Senzel hit more homeruns or struck out less.

Nick Madrigal, to me, reminds of Jose Peraza, at least Jose Peraza at his best, just with a better hit tool and marginally better power, speed, and patience. He thrives on making contact, he's speedy, and likely won't walk or strikeout much, but should put up a strong OBP as a leadoff hitter. You know, an OBP-machine leadoff hitter who also steals bases.

Brady Singer, a combination of Mike Leake's advanced approach and durability, and Aaron Nola's repertoire.

Matt Liberatore, to me, sounds a little like Mackenzie Gore. He might not throw 100mph like Hunter Greene, but he has a good repertoire at a young age.

Carter Stewart, to me, reminds a little of Hunter Greene. He has a famous pitch at a young age, although it's his high-RPM curve rather than Greene's 100mph fastball. He's somebody with huge raw skills, but almost equally high risk, who's years and lots of work away from being a viable big league pitcher.

[oldschoolstyle]

Liberatore.

I wanted Gore 2 after Greene (maybe a Wright leaped him last second).

I keep saying it, but I really think he and Greene could advance together. Imagine getting a pair of aces arriving at the same time to help a team.

I'm gonna say it... Haven't wanted a prep LHP this bad since Kershaw.

[oldschoolstyle]

To be honest... If it were me I'd take Murray at 5. Worse case scenario you pick 6th next year. Best case you get a guy under slot and crush your 2nd pick.

[dukecrunchybagel]

Singer or Libertoire.

[dukecrunchybagel]

It's Johnathan India.

[oldschoolstyle]

If he can't play SS... Meh

[floydgator]

Singer still on the board late 1st. It’s because he struggled so much this season. You know, as the SEC pitcher of the year and National Player of the Year. Somebody took Logan Gilbert ahead of him for christ’s sake.

[floydgator]

Royals with an historic steal

[oldschoolstyle]

Lolz I personally thought it was a no brainer to take him off any list. That arm action is uggggggly.

[redsfanman]

I guess Liberator and Singer's high bonus demands pushed them to #16 (Rays) and #18 (Royals), respectively, to teams with big bonus pools.

Royals: $12.78m

Rays: $12.42m

Tigers: $12.41m

Giants: $11.75m

Reds: $10.90m

Rays pick #16, 31, 32, 56, 71, 92

Royals pick #18, 33, 34, 40, 58, 94

Enviable position in such a deep draft. Both got off to great starts, with top 4-8 picks in the draft pushed to the mid-to-late teens.

[oldschoolstyle]

I feel better about India today. But one of Suarez, Senzel, Scooter has to be traded now...

[Lark11]

Jun 5, 2018 8:41:28 GMT -5 oldschoolstyle said:

I feel better about India today. But one of Suarez, Senzel, Scooter has to be traded now...

Having too many good players is never a problem. India is a few years way, but if he can handle shortstop, then he still fits in just fine with the above group.

[oldschoolstyle]

I'm never a fan of trying to make someone fit. I'd be surprised if he was even average defensively at SS. It's not impossible he moves, but should absolutely not be counted on.

Does his athletic profile fit in CF?