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Post by floydgator on Mar 27, 2018 21:54:56 GMT -5
I would also look for some team to draft Michael Byrne relatively high (first 5 rounds-ish) then convert him to a starter or high leverage reliever. He's not a closer or ace in the major leagues (honestly, I doubt he ever gets to the bigs), but he's really, really good and somebody will try to see if his feel for pitching translates despite the fact that he doesn't have the stuff of Singer or Kowar or Dyson or about 5 other guys on our staff.
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Post by floydgator on Mar 30, 2018 21:50:24 GMT -5
Beat FSU again this week. Just saying.
Singer went 7 against #8 Vandy tonight. 2H, 1 BB, 1 R, 11Ks. Great bounce bank after a lesser outing against a really good Arkansas team. Another big game for India as well. Gators lead 7-1 in the 8th with Mace in.
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Post by floydgator on Apr 26, 2018 21:22:45 GMT -5
Brady singer vs Casey mize. Singer wins 3-1, India hits a 2 run dinger off mize.
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Post by redsfanman on Apr 28, 2018 10:09:55 GMT -5
The Reds choose 5th and have the 5th largest draft pool ($10.9m). Reds choose 5, 47, 72, 82, and 109. -In 2017 they chose 2, 32, 38, 77, and 107. $13.7m bonus pool was the second largest of all teams. -In 2016 they chose 2, 35, 43, 79, and 108. $13.9m bonus pool, largest of all teams. I kinda envy the Rays (16, 31, 32, 56, 71, 92) and Royals (18, 33, 34, 40, 58, 94), who each have 5 picks before the Reds' third. Lots or chances to spread the risk around, a bit. I do NOT envy the Phillies (3, 107 [lost all their other picks in compensation]). If their first round pick is anything but a total success it'll be hard for their whole draft class to recover. Sure they gave up their picks for players, but it'll likely make for a really boring draft class. 1. Detroit Tigers 2. San Francisco Giants 3. Philadelphia Phillies 4. Chicago White Sox 5. Cincinnati Reds m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=draftwww.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/Revised draft lists are now out from several sources, but I feel like this year it's less of a choice for the Reds and more a matter of who happens to fall to #5. -INF Nick Madrigal, I would really like him, but I think he'll be selected by the Phillies, and I think that would be a good fit for a team that really needs to justify its only pick in the top 100. I think they should be less inclined than other teams to take a boom-or-bust guy. -C Joey Bart, I'm not really impressed by what I read about him, but I guess that doesn't mean he'd be a bad choice. -RHP Brady Singer, he'll probably be available at #5, and may allow the Reds to save some money while choosing a safe fast moving guy. It wouldn't be the most exciting pick, but I wouldn't be opposed, either. The Reds have flirted with college arms for the past few years (AJ Puk, McKay) but decided against it, maybe this is the year. -LHP Shane McClanahan? -College 3b Alex Bohm? -College CF Travis Swaggerty? -HS RHP Carter Stewart? It'd be exciting if he well to the Reds, but that seems unlikely. -HS CF Jarred Kelenic, out of Wisconsin? Fangraphs thinks he'll be the Reds pick, which I wouldn't have a problem with. -College 3b Jonathan India, a guy flying up draft boards? All the shortstops have fallen down the lists, how sad. Maybe one, like Nander DeSedas, with all his uncertainty, is still around at #47 or 72. Griffin Conine has fallen to #65 on MLB Pipeline's list. Seth Beer at 39, Greyson Jenista at 43.
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Post by floydgator on May 4, 2018 22:35:05 GMT -5
Complete game for Mize vs Vandy. 15 Ks, 1 ER. Impressive.
I mean, it’s not a complete game shut out vs a ranked Texas A&M like Singer threw tonight, but impressive nonetheless.
Also, and I don’t think it means a ton for his future chances of making the bigs, but JJ is on fire. 4-5 tonight, up to .315 for the season.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on May 5, 2018 20:22:11 GMT -5
Stewart or Madrigal will be a Red. No need to over complicate it. They both fit the profiles we gravitate to. Brohm staying hot is the best thing as Reds fan we can hope for.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on May 10, 2018 8:24:47 GMT -5
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Post by redsfanman on May 12, 2018 12:14:42 GMT -5
I've been getting caught up a bit on my draft related podcasts lately, Baseball America and MLBPipeline. A thought-provoking point I've been hearing, which I hadn't thought about much before, is the all around atrocious track record of first round high school pitchers. High school arms are often drafted in the first round for their upside, but so often are total busts.
In Reds country we hear lots of complaints about Robert Stephenson and Nick Travieso being failed picks, as though other teams have a high success rate with developing such guys, but there's hardly been a top of the first round high school pitcher success story since Dylan Bundy and Jose Fernandez in 2011. The recent track record of top high school pitchers is just atrocious, far worse than is generally acknowledged. That's not any one team's failed development, it's all kind of factors leading to problems from a hugely boom-or-bust demographic. Stephenson perhaps represents the guys who don't develop enough, Travieso the injured guys. But all teams go through that. Compared to a college pitcher or position player, the risk is just so darn high. Heck, the Atlanta Braves are the only team in recent years who seem to be demonstrating any kinda consistent success (luck?) with high school pitchers, and that's just a few data points.
Maybe 2016's Ian Anderson (3) and Matt Manning (9) can change that, while Riley Pint (4), Braxton Garrett (7), Jay Groome (12) deal with injuries. Forrest Whitley (17) is suspended. There's also Cole Ragans (30).
Maybe 2015's Kolby Allard (14) and Mike Soroka (28) can change that, while Brady Aiken (17), Ashe Russell (18), Beau Burrows (19), Mike Nikorak (27), and Nolan Watson (33) also went in the first round.
2014 saw Brady Aiken (1), Tyler Kolek (2), Kodi Medeiros (12), Touki Toussaint (16), Grant Holmes (22), Foster Griffin (28), Justus Sheffield (31), Michael Kopech (33), and Jack Flaherty (34). Still some promise from guys at the middle or end of that round, but the top few look like busts.
2013 saw Kohl Stewart (4), Trey Ball (7), Phil Bickford (10), Hunter Harvey (22), Rob Kaminsky (28), and Ian Clarkin (33). Maybe one or two still become decent big leaguers.
2012 saw Max Fried (7), Nick Travieso (14), Lucas Giolito (16), Lucas Sims (21), Ty Hensley (30). Jury still out, but not looking good. Fried and Giolito have reached the majors, but neither has reached their potential.
2011 saw Dylan Bundy (4), Archie Bradley (7), Jose Fernandez (14), Tyler Beede (21), Taylor Guerrieri (24), Joe Ross (25), Robert Stephenson (27), Kevin Matthews (33). Maybe 4 or 5 of the 8 amount to something, in the most successful high school pitching draft class in ages.
2010 saw Jameson Taillon (2), Karsten Whitson (9), Dylan Covey (14), Mike Foltynewicz (19), Jesse Biddle (27), Zach Lee (28), and Cam Bedrosian (29). Two SP successes, a RP, several busts.
2009 saw Matt Hobgood (5), Zack Wheeler (6), Jacob Turner (9), Tyler Matzek (11), Matt Purke (14), Chad James (18), Shelby Miller (19),
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Post by redsfanman on May 12, 2018 13:32:36 GMT -5
I liked both Hunter Greene (2) and MacKenzie Gore (3) in 2017, but it's important to recognize the risk in their demographic. The Reds were reportedly high on LHP/1b Brendan McKay (4) and RHP Kyle Wright (5), two guys who lacked the excitement and sheer upside of those highschoolers, but who I think would've been much safer, less risky picks. I have little doubt McKay and Wright will both be successful MLB players before long. Risk is an important concern, which should always be factored in. Sometimes it's better to have a solid, predictable, reliable guy like Mike Leake, rather than somebody who can realistically go boom-or-bust. The Reds (Greene) and Padres (Gore) got potential franchise players (who could also be total busts), while I think the Rays (McKay) and Braves (Wright) have a better idea of what they'll have and when they'll have it.
I really liked Nick Senzel leading up to the 2016 draft, whose primary appeal to me was his low risk. Guys like Corey Ray and Kyle Lewis at times looked like they could match him in career WAR, but they also featured tons of risk. There's definitely value in having guys who can almost-definitely play in the majors, and it generally keeps your team from looking stupid.
Anyway, my point is, there are now 5 solid college players as reasonably safe and nevertheless quality picks who should be available to the Reds. I hope the Reds get one of THEM over LHP Matt Liberatore or RHP Carter Stewart. I've heard OF Jarred Kelenic mentioned a bunch around #5, but again, I hope the team goes with somebody less risky.
Now, onto some current thoughts on recent players. By all reports Casey Mize has separated himself from the pack at 1-1, but the next 5-7 picks are a tossup (alphabetical order):
-C Joey Bart, George Tech - Recently he's been linked to the Giants, who've had success with Buster Posey, and I hope he goes there. Catchers tend to be really risky and injury prone (they have 100mph pitches fouled off them all the time!) and most only play part time (2/3rds of games at most?). If he falls to the Reds they'll probably suddenly have the best group of catching prospects (Bart and Tyler Stephenson... Okey?) in baseball, and it doesn't sound like #5 would be an overdraft. But, again, I hope he's chosen #2 or #4, so the Reds aren't pressured to take him as the best available player.
-3b Alec Bohm, Wichita State - A big power hitter who some think will need to move to 1b, I really hope he's picked 2-4 so the Reds aren't pressured to take him as the best available player. He'd be a good pick at #5, but one who I don't think would fit into the Reds organization/infield well (Senzel, Suarez, Votto). He'd probably be quick to the majors, but a trade would probably be needed to open a job. I think other college players mesh better with the Reds' needs. The general consensus seems to be that he's different, rather than better, than the rest of this pack.
-3b Nolan Gorman, high schooler - His stock has been sliding with concerns about his hit tool and increased concern he'll move to 1b. I really doubt he'll go in the top 5. Much of what I said about Bohm not fitting in also applies to Gorman, expect Gorman will be further from the majors and has been ranked below the caliber Bohm has been in lately.
-3b Jonathan India, Florida - He has a lot of helium as draft day approaches, sounds to me a little like Nick Senzel. Some think he can play 2b, maybe even some SS. He's played shortstop as recently as this season, so scouts have at least seen him there, rather than merely speculating at how his skills would translate. Like Senzel he seems to have good plate discipline and plenty of versatility to both get on base and adapt to whatever opening there is in MLB. He'd be a reasonably safe, if unexciting, pick. I don't really have any strong opinions about him... if he's the guy, cool, if not, also cool. I'll be happier if he's the pick at #5 than Bart or Bohm, though, but less happy than Madrigal. He's a successful SEC hitter, like Senzel, Bregman, Swanson, and Benintendi. Some speculate he's now moved into the #2-4 range. candlestick Williams recently went to see Casey Mize vs Brady Singer, connecting Singer to the Reds, but Jonathan India (obviously) plays for the same team. Just saying, the Reds are probably closely watching both Singer and India at the same time.
-OF Jarred Kelenic, Wisconsin high schooler - Most seem to think he'll be a good hitter and a RF, but I don't know, it's a lot of risk for the upside. I just like the college guys more. If he's the pick, fine, but I kinda doubt he is, I think he drops a little, in part because he's from Wisconsin. From what I've read I'd choose college CF Travis Swaggerty over Kelenic, and I think both would be available at #5.
-LHP Matt Liberatore, high school - The success rate of high school pitchers is just atrocious, and the Reds just made that gamble last year. With a compelling group of safer college players I hope they choose from among them.
-2b/SS Nick Madrigal, Oregon State - I think he's the best mix of high upside and limited risk in the draft class, from all I've heard. I think he'll move fast, has the versatility to play different positions (I'd start him at SS, see how it goes), and may be the first to the majors. He might not end his career with the highest WAR of the draft class, but I think whatever team gets him will end up happy with their selection. Much like Nick Senzel, he's a safe bet for a long and successful career. One day Madrigal will slow down and lose value, but that seems likely to be outside of the ~6-7 years of team control. I'm hoping he's available to the Reds.
The Phillies forfeited several picks so they choose #3 but not again until #107... if I were their GM I'd want a safe #3 pick to ensure I had SOMETHING to show for this draft class. I'm worried that the Phillies take Madrigal for that reason, as a reasonable pick with less risk than anybody else. The Giants (2) and White Sox (4) are in a position to take more risk, in my opinion, with multiple early picks.
-LHP Shane McClanahan, South Florida - I don't want him. Control problems, 'thrower rather than pitcher', sounds a little like AJ Puk to me. Too risky, in my opinion, not one of the top 5. With so much frustration over Reds pitchers with control problems not developing control, adding another such guy would just be an odd fit.
-RHP Casey Mize, Auburn - seems like a lock to go 1-1, so isn't really relevant to the Reds, barring something major (injury) he'll be off the board immediately, long before #5.
-RHP Brady Singer, Florida - He's not my top choice, but I have no problem with him being the selection. I think he's a safe candidate for a middle of the rotation starter, who should be reasonably quick to the majors. He lacks the concerns of AJ Puk and Alex Faedo. He won't be the most exciting pick the Reds have made in recent years, but I think he'll do fine. I don't think he'll be a superstar OR a bust, just a solid pitcher for a long time, like Mike Leake. He's faced tough competition for years in college, and excelled under the spotlight. The Reds have been frequently linked to him, and have notably been following/watching him.
-RHP Carter Stewart, high school - Huge spin rates, but like Liberatore, I hope they avoid the risky demographic of high school pitching and go with one of the safer college players who'll be available. Let some other team take that risk.
-CF Travis Swaggerty, South Alabama - I'd rank him (just) outside of the top 5, but as a 5 above-average tool player he'd also be a fine, safe pick. I think he'll be fast to the majors and do fine, a solid if unremarkable big leaguer. But, the last time the Reds drafted a solid just above average outfielder who did some of everything, Drew Stubbs, fans hated him. It sounds like Swaggerty will get on base more and strikeout less, but he might be a worse CF than Stubbs, while stealing fewer bases. All around shrug. If he's the pick, cool, if not, cool. I think the Reds can definitely find a role for a CF.
Guys who will be or I hope are picked before the Reds choose: -Casey Mize -Alec Bohm -Joey Bart
Guys who I hope the Reds can choose from, in order: 1. Nick Madrigal 2a. Jonathan India (depending how scouts feel about him at SS?) 2b. Brady Singer 4. Travis Swaggerty
Guys I hope they don't choose (not that there's really any sign they would, anyway): -Shane McClanahan -Jarred Kelenic -Nolan Gorman -Matt Liberatore -Carter Stewart
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Post by oldschoolstyle on May 12, 2018 21:07:42 GMT -5
I'm fine with a HS RHP as long as it's one of those "they'd go #1 if they weren't a HS RHP" guys. Stewart is sliding so I don't think that's him. But if he rebounds, I have no problem taking him with the 5th.
I'm praying for Madrigal, but I just can't see 3 teams passing on the safety he brings.
Same with Singer, my #2.
India doesn't excite me, but people smarter than me believe. So I reluctantly put him 3rd.
But after that... Probably Liberatore and Carter Stewart. Again, I'd probably put them at 3/3a if left unchecked.
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Post by redsfanman on May 14, 2018 16:41:35 GMT -5
Matt Liberatore and Carter Stewart are the only high school arms who are being mentioned in consideration for the top 5, at this point, and I think it's easy to pass on them considering the safer college options.
I hope for:
Tigers: Casey Mize (seems as certain as anything, at this point)
Giants: Joey Bart (Buser Posey 2.0? Try again what worked before? Phillies: Alec Bohm (Safe choice for big bat)
White Sox: Jonathan India (list of successful SEC hitters like India is impressive)
It seems like a longshot, but if Bart, Bohm, and India got in the top 3...
I want to say a little more about Jonathan India, who I hadn't really heard much about before listening to podcasts a few days ago. Yeah, he probably doesn't excite people too much, but he's been an exceptional hitter in the SEC, and the list of his exceptional SEC hitting counterparts - Senzel, Bregman, Swanson, Benintendi - just seems so promising. I don't think there's much question that Jonathan India will get to the majors pretty fast, have a pretty good approach when he does, and that he'll hit well. He reportedly has average power and a good hit tool. His hit tool may be worse than Madrigals, and he has less speed, but he has more power and a better arm. Senzel sorta gradually rose up from nowhere to become a promising pick at #2, despite minor questions about aspect of his game (in his case his power and defense), and India seems the same way. He doesn't have huge speed or huge power that'll generate excitement, but I think he could be a really good player in the majors really fast, and he could fit in at several different positions.
I wish there were some more detailed scouting reports of India that I had access to, everything seems to cover his history rather than how and why he's been so successful this year.... or addresses his success only in the most vague terms, it feels like.
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Post by floydgator on May 14, 2018 17:33:42 GMT -5
Not a detailed scouting report, but India hit a home run on saturday from Gainesville that landed in Cleveland. He's been really good with the glove as well. Announcers the other night were talking about teams drafting him as a SS. Not seeing that, but that reflects well on what scouts think of his glove, I guess.
Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar are now #1 and 3 in the SEC in ERA (all games) and #1 and 2 in the SEC in conference games only. Mize got hammered vs. Ole Miss the other night. Singer has SEC pitcher of the year pretty much on lock down.
JJ Schwarz is on fire and he's carrying the team right now. He's up to .340 with 12 HRs now. Considering he was hovering in the .280 - .300 range for most of the season, he's really turned it up over the last 3-4 weeks.
This is probably the best team in the country again, but unlike every season for the last 6 or 8, this team has fielding struggles. As good as he has been with the bat, JJ has proven he can't catch. I'm sure Sully fairly promised him the majority of the starts this year at catcher. That's fine, but it's playoff time now. He needs to play 1B and let Brady Smith catch. Between Schwarz at catcher and Keenan Bell at 1B, those 2 are going to cost us more games down the stretch with their shitty fielding. How can you be a bad first baseman? Bell manages. And he's hitting like .210.
Also, the 3rd starter role has turned into a problem. Tyler Dyson has gone mental and Leftwich has been mediocre over the last 2 weeks. Best case, Dyson gets it together again and Leftwich goes back to the pen for 2nd reliable set up arm. Worst case, this team kicks the ball around 1 too many times and gets eliminated by a bad start from the guy not named Singer or Kowar.
I'd be ecstatic if the Reds drafted India, but my choices are still:
1. Singer 2. Madrigal
I think both will be gone before we draft. I keep hearing the Singer's stock had dropped because of a "rough season like Puk and Faedo." That was nonsense. He had 2 mediocre starts. He's still a lock for first team All-American as he is 10-1 with a 2.25 ERA in the best conference in America. And he's going to move fast.
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Post by floydgator on May 14, 2018 17:51:15 GMT -5
From PerfectGame.org
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Post by oldschoolstyle on May 17, 2018 7:58:12 GMT -5
New Keith Law Mock:
5. Cincinnati Reds: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
This is where it starts to open up a little bit. I've heard the Reds associated with Madrigal, Swaggerty, Bohm and, of course, with Bart or Mize if either gets here (and I doubt either does today), and even with Liberatore and Noah Naylor.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on May 17, 2018 7:59:57 GMT -5
New Keith Law Mock: 5. Cincinnati Reds: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida This is where it starts to open up a little bit. I've heard the Reds associated with Madrigal, Swaggerty, Bohm and, of course, with Bart or Mize if either gets here (and I doubt either does today), and even with Liberatore and Noah Naylor. I like it. Singer seems like a fast mover, relatively low floor, good health... Someone get me real pumped about him.
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