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Post by redskoolaiddrinker on Aug 6, 2017 19:06:21 GMT -5
Giants have won 2 in a row and are 4-6 in the last 10 games. A's are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Phillies and White Sox are pretty much a lock for the first two spots. Best we can hope for is the 3rd pick.
Phillies 40-69 White Sox 41-68 Giants 44-69 Reds 45-66 A's are 49-62 Padres are 49-61 Mets are 49-59
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 17, 2017 20:02:03 GMT -5
So, this page is kinda dead, I thought I'd write something to stir up some conversation. I recently got up to date on Baseball America and other draft related podcasts, for their early thoughts on the 2018 draft.
The Baseball America people were unanimous that there's a huge disagreement over Seth Beer between fans and, you know, people around baseball. One of them went so far as to compare him to JJ Schwarz, the guy who made a name for himself with a great freshman season for Florida only to do worse as a sophomore... while also also having negative defensive value anywhere in the field. Of course Beer's sophomore season wasn't as big a dropoff as Schwarz's had before draft day, and he's still got another year to turn it around. But they all sounded VERY skeptical, wondering more if Seth Beer is truly even a first round talent than a 1-1 candidate. Of course it only takes one team to overdraft a DH. They're right that if he's really slow now he's only going to get slower, so OF doesn't sound like a real option.
Some other random points, no high school righty has still ever gone 1-1 overall, and Hankins, Rocker, and whoever else seem highly unlikely to break that trend. Hankins seems to be widely regarded as the top high school pitcher, but the Baseball America writers on the podcast seemed unanimous in ranking him below Hunter Greene, for whatever that's worth.
Every year I hope there'll be a true shortstop available as the best available player when the Reds pick, but it never seems to happen. But it seems like it COULD this year, with Turang, De Sedas, and 2b/SS Madrigal. Of course, last year's #32 overall pick, Jeter Downs, already looks like the best shortstop the Reds have drafted since taking Cozart at #79 in 2007, not that that really matters much. It'd be great to load up on best-available-players high on the defensive spectrum. It's nice when best-available-player coincides with hardest-position-to-fill.
Guys I personally think are currently likely to go in the top 3: Brice Turang, SS, CA - A true shortstop with a real chance to go 1-1 (I doubt he'll get past Phillies at #3). If he falls to the Reds, awesome. Ethan Hankins, RHP, GA - Upper 90's fastball and good command, big upside, probably the top high school pitcher. He's 6'6. If he falls to the Reds, awesome. Brady Singer, RHP, Florida - Probably the safest pitcher in the draft. Puk and Faedo fell (not being safe), but who knows if he will? I think he'll go in the top 2 or 3 until proven otherwise.
Guys I personally think are likely to go in the top 5: Nander De Sedas, SS, FL - Apparently he has a chance to stick at SS, switch hits (as of a year or so ago), and has power from both sides of the plate, and has really raised his stock. He's 6'1/190lbs, so pretty big for a shortstop. Francisco Lindor went to his high school, for whatever that's worth. I think he'd be a great fit for the Reds. Nolan Gorman, 3b, AZ - Big power, good arm and defense at 3b. He had a good summer to raise his stock a lot. Called the best power bat in the draft class. The USA Baseball 18U national team manager (or whoever he was) raved about Gorman in a podcast. I don't think Nick Senzel would be a big problem for him, as there's already talk about Senzel playing 2b and Gorman would be years and years behind him developmentally, even as an advanced high schooler. Best player available, if that's Gorman, fine. Jarred Kelenic, OF, WS - Good pure hitter with advanced approach, and good defender. Five tool talent. If he's the best available player at #5, awesome. Nick Madrigal, 2b/SS, Oregon State - He's 5'7, but arguably the best college hitter in the class, at least outside of DH's. He's a good pure hitter, maybe the Reds like him as a shortstop. He's probably relatively quick to the majors, and could benefit from GABP.
Guys who might go in the top 5, but I'd currently be surprised if they do: Kumar Rocker, RHP, GA - Mid to upper 90's fastball, good slider. But not much projection left, so all about refining. I guess he had a bad summer and his stock is down a bit, but still time to recover. I don't know, I just see him as a sorta unlikely pick for the Reds considering other options. Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida - Top college lefty by Baseball America, they think he'll go #6 to the Mets, who have apparently long admired him. I'd just be surprised to see the Reds go with a college pitcher, especially one who struggled with consistency, with all the high school talent available. Joe Gray, Jr, OF, MS - Good raw power, speed, arm strength. Maybe he moves up, but recently hasn't been ranked that high. Konnor Pilkington, LHP, Mississippi State Matt Liberatore, LHP, AZ - Good command of three pitches. Top high school lefty. Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn - Some injury concerns.
Of course, all these guys have a bunch of games to play before draft day.
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Post by sloucho on Nov 16, 2017 2:54:38 GMT -5
Good post rfm. I certainly hope, with the ability of the reds to develop players, that they take the player with the best baseball IQ, not based on his ability to throw hard or physical prowess. I don't know if it's better right now to draft a college player or hs player, but I'm sure that kind of thing is weighted in the evaluation of a draft pick. Personally, i think the value of college arms is better than it was, say, 5 years ago, so it will be something to talk about when our scouting plays out next June.
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Post by redsfanman on Nov 18, 2017 13:08:16 GMT -5
Good post rfm. I certainly hope, with the ability of the reds to develop players, that they take the player with the best baseball IQ, not based on his ability to throw hard or physical prowess. I don't know if it's better right now to draft a college player or hs player, but I'm sure that kind of thing is weighted in the evaluation of a draft pick. Personally, i think the value of college arms is better than it was, say, 5 years ago, so it will be something to talk about when our scouting plays out next June. It's a tradeoff, high school players are younger and more untested against tough competition, while college players are older, more proven, probably faster to the majors (as they're older), and safer. Much of the time top high school players don't make it to college, which to some extent can reflect poorly on college guys (Nick Senzel went undrafted out of high school, what's wrong with him???). In fairness they just selected somebody (Hunter Greene) based on multiple reasons you listed - baseball IQ (and maturity), ability to throw hard, and athleticism/physical prowess. I don't know what you mean about college pitching... in the past 6 drafts I'd argue college pitching only looked at the time or retrospectively like a strength in 2014 and 2012: 2017 - McKay (LHP/1b/DH), Kyle Wright, and JB Bukaukas didn't make for a particularly compelling class. 2016 - AJ Puk, Cal Quantrill, and Matt Manning hasn't been particularly inspiring. Puk has put up huge strikeout totals, but his overall performance has mostly validated the concerns about him. 2015 - Dillon Tate, Carson Fulmer, and James Kapriellian. Fulmer has been a success, but not the other two. 2014 - Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola, Kyle Freeland, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Beede, Sean Newcomb, Brandon Finnegan, and Luke Weaver... but that's the last time college pitching looked like a true strength of a draft class either at the time or in retrospect. 2013 - Mark Appel, John Gray, Braden Shipley... Marco Gonzales, Sean Manaea 2012 - Kevin Gausman, Kyle Zimmer, Mark Appel (did not sign)... Andrew Heany, Michael Wacha, Marcus Stroman High school pitching is very risky, but the recent success of first round picks of college pitchers has generally left much to be desired, perhaps lacking the security one may hope they offer. Maybe the 'value' is now better in that college players' 'value' partially comes from safety, security, and predictability.
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Post by redsfanman on Dec 5, 2017 17:13:27 GMT -5
MLBPipeline released their top 50 list: m.mlb.com/news/article/262831302/mlb-pipelines-2018-top-draft-prospects-list/1 Brady Singer, RHP 2 Ethan Hankins, RHP 3 Matthew Liberatore, LHP 4 Nolan Gorman, 3B 5 Shane McClanahan, LHP 6 Nander De Sedas, SS 7 Brice Turang, SS 8 Casey Mize, RHP 9 Ryan Rolison, LHP 10 Jackson Kowar, RHP 19 Griffin Conine, OF 27 Seth Beer, 1b They have shortstops Nander De Sadas and Brice Turang available around where the Reds pick. Cool. Liberatore, McClanahan, Mize? Yawn.
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Post by The Duke on Dec 7, 2017 15:39:07 GMT -5
I'd be thrilled with Mize if he's healthy. Swing and miss stuff and the best command/control in the draft. Mize, De Sedas, Liberatore, Singer, Turang. We end up with one of those guys and I'll be thrilled.
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Post by redsfanman on Dec 7, 2017 22:13:40 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline released a mock draft: www.mlb.com/news/2018-mlb-mock-draft-first-10-picks/c-2628434181. Tigers Callis: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida. He has everything teams look for in a college pitcher: stuff, polish, makeup and a track record of excelling on the biggest stages (College World Series, Cape Cod League). Mayo: Singer. Alex Faedo and A.J. Puk are former Gators who looked like potential No. 1 overall picks and didn't quite get there, but Singer might be a better all-around pitcher than they were in college. 2. Giants Callis: Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Cental HS (Cumming, Ga.). Let's make it two years in a row that a high school right-hander with the best fastball in the Draft goes No. 2 overall, with Hankins following in the footsteps of Hunter Greene to the Reds. Mayo: Nander de Sedas, SS, Montverde (Fla.) Academy. De Sedas has some serious tools and can stay up the middle, and the Giants don't shy away from high school bats (Heliot Ramos in 2017, Christian Arroyo in '13) when the right one comes their way. 3. Phillies Callis: Matt Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (Glendale, Ariz.). In two years under general manager Matt Klentak, the Phillies have spent early first-round choices on players who were highly advanced for their level (Adam Haseley in 2017, Mickey Moniak in '16). Liberatore, a crafty three-pitch lefty, fits that mold. Mayo: Hankins. Seeing him go in the top two picks is certainly reasonable, but seeing the top prep arm drop further than this is not. 4. White Sox Callis: de Sedas. He draws some Francisco Lindor comps because they're switch-hitting shortstops from the same school, with de Sedas offering more offensive upside and Lindor showing superior defensive ability at the same stage of their careers. Mayo: Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida. He's a rare college arm with projection and scouts report that Kowar threw as well as, if not better than, Singer this fall, albeit in a very small sample size. 5. RedsCallis: Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS (Corona, Calif.). Though his stock fell slightly during the summer, he's still a quality shortstop with a promising bat and speed, not to mention big league genes (father Brian). Mayo: Nick Madrigal, 2B/SS, Oregon State. Gone are the days where smaller guys get overlooked, and Madrigal is the best college bat available with a track record of performance. 6. Mets Callis: Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida. He does have Tommy John surgery in his past, but he also has the most electric arm among this Draft's left-handers. Mayo: Turang. Once thought to be the top guy in the class, Turang saw his star fade a tiny bit, but his overall tools up the middle won't let him drop far. 7. Padres Callis: Nolan Gorman, 3B, O'Connor HS (Phoenix). The best power hitter in the Draft, high school or college, he made a habit of winning high-profile home run derbies during the summer and also has the strong arm for third base. Mayo: Liberatore. His combination of pitchability and stuff likely means he goes higher than this as a lefty with the potential of having three plus pitches. 8. Braves Callis: Kowar. Another College World Series hero for the Gators, Kowar has more arm strength than Singer, but isn't as refined. Mayo: McClanahan. After elbow reconstruction, he's had just one (very strong) season for the Bulls before taking the summer off, so the scouting industry will watch his encore performance very closely this spring. 9. Athletics Callis: Madrigal. He's just 5-foot-7, but his instincts are off the charts, he may be the safest bet to hit in the entire Draft and he also has plus speed. Mayo: Gorman. He has as much raw power as anyone in the Draft class and the A's have gone bat first in five of the past six years, with three of those position players coming from the high school ranks. 10. Pirates Callis: Ryan Rolison, LHP, Mississippi. Pittsburgh failed to sign a premium high school lefty (supplemental first-rounder Nick Lodolo) out of the 2016 Draft, but gets another one in Rolison, now a sophomore-eligible with one of the better fastball/curveball combinations on the board. Mayo: Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha (Wis.) West HS. The best pure bat among high schoolers and perhaps the entire class, he'd be a good addition to first-round prep hitters taken by the Pirates this decade (Austin Meadows, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Cole Tucker).
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Post by The Duke on Feb 26, 2018 14:17:59 GMT -5
After the start of the college season and knowing a little more info on the high school class, my top 5, in no particular order for the Reds to take at 5 this June is:
Nick Madrigal, 2B/SS, Oregon State Nolan Gorman, 3B, AZ HS Matthew Liberatore, LHP, AZ HS Ryan Rolison, LHP, Ole Miss Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida
Just outside: Brice Turang, Banded De Sedas, Casey Mize, Greyson Jenista
Not a fan of Brady Singers arm action. Ethan Hankins just had a shoulder issue and we just took a hard throwing HS RHP.
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Post by floydgator on Mar 5, 2018 16:46:30 GMT -5
Singer is going to be an All-Star. He's also going to be gone before we draft.
Madrigal is at the top of my list right now.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 5, 2018 17:04:58 GMT -5
South Alabama CF Travis Swaggerty is hitting .390/.609/.707 through 13 games with 21 BB vs 7 K and 3 HRs. South Alabama has played a ranked opponent in 8 of their 13 games.
Even with the wrist injury, I still like Madrigal. Best hit tool in the draft.
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Post by floydgator on Mar 13, 2018 20:17:23 GMT -5
Starting to see some questions about UF's non-conference scheduling. It may be legit. We schedule too many scrub teams in the non-conference portion that we just hammer over and over and over again.
I'm talking about FSU and Miami, of course. 12-6 Gators tonight. That's 11 Ws in the last 12 vs. FSU. We are 26-7 vs. Miami since 2010.
We need to start scheduling to our level.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 14, 2018 15:51:05 GMT -5
I definitely won't be unhappy if Nick Madrigal was the Reds pick. It'd be easy to criticize (he's short! he's not a superstar! They have 2b candidates!) but there's so much to like. He may lack the raw upside of some other candidates, but he seems like the safest most sure thing in the draft. There's relatively little question that he'll reach the majors, and hit there. Kind of like I did and do expect from Nick Senzel.
Madrigal might not end up having hte highest career WAR of the draft class, but he seems extremely unlikely to be a bust.
Madrigal's wrist injury might, ironically, help him drop to the Reds at #5. At the same time it's unfortunate to see him missing time after his hot start for Oregon. College pitchers McClanahan and Mize seem to have injury concerns. High schooler Ethan Hankins has a muscular non-structural shoulder injury. Nolan Gorman has some strikeout concerns. Nander De Sedas may be a 3b. It's hard to come up with a genuine concern about Madrigal, a reason why he wouldn't be a solid draft pick.
He can hit, he can walk, he should be a good OBP guy. He can play defense (definitely 2b, maybe SS, or maybe CF with his speed?), he can steal bases. Could be a combined old-school leadoff hitter with speed and a new-school OBP-oriented leadoff hitter. From what I read I think his power is likely to play up in the majors due to a good hit tool and good plate discipline. Should be relatively fast to the majors. Like, early 2020, if he follows the same timeline as Nick Senzel.
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Post by floydgator on Mar 14, 2018 19:07:07 GMT -5
I suspect that, like Senzel, Madrigal could move more quickly if we were competing for something.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 25, 2018 23:56:57 GMT -5
Is there a hotter hitter in college baseball right now than Jonathan India? Floyd, what's the inside scoop? How's his D at 3rd? Contact, plate discipline, and power are all clicking right now.
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Post by floydgator on Mar 27, 2018 21:51:00 GMT -5
Is there a hotter hitter in college baseball right now than Jonathan India? Floyd, what's the inside scoop? How's his D at 3rd? Contact, plate discipline, and power are all clicking right now. He's incredibly talented. He had a down year last year, but it wasn't for lack of ability. He's going to be a first rounder now, imo. I think he can play third as a pro. He's not likely to be Brooks Robinson, but they considered playing him some at short. He's only made 1 error in 25+ games so he's been dependable. He's a good athlete so I suspect he will only improve there (he already has). I won't pretend to be a scout (for example, David Eckstein was a great player at UF that I assumed wasn't talented enough to get past A ball. Whoops.) JJ Schwartz is having a decent bounceback season for a college player. He also strikes out a ton. He's a great Gator but that dude is never playing major league baseball. Tommy Mace has gotten bombed recently and has fallen out of Sully's trusted bullpen group. We still have 6-8 high level, trustworthy arms though and we are better offensively this year with the best rotation in CBB. Also, we beat FSU tonight. Again. I know that isn't news because it happens ALL THE DAMN TIME, but it still feels good.
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