Well, now I'll make a list of young guys I'm most excited about seeing with the Cincinnati Reds in 2018. You know, to make Redskoolaiddrinker happy. Obviously some will overlap with guys on the previous list. (Age for most of 2018)
Forgive me, this list is long. It's an exciting young team loaded with lots of young talent.
Starting Pitchers:
RHP Robert Stephenson, 25 - He's been a source of controversy and debate for years, probably since his 2013 debut in AA. I've watched most of his starts, when I could, as I've long been intrigued by him, and I've been really impressed by what I've seen. Obviously critics focus on the walks, making statements that nobody can be successful with a high walk rate, before getting angry when comparisons of successful pitchers with high walk rates are made. I believe there's an outlier to every rule, including how Billy Hamilton has disproven the notion that some certain level of hitting prowess is necessary to be a valuable MLB player, and Stephenson has the pitches and ability to pitch around his walks, if he needs to. But, I don't think it'll really come to that. He'll never be the hero of control enthusiasts, but he's still a young guy who's taken a big step forward this year, and it seems like as he grows more confident and experienced he should gradually reduce his walk rate. What should he get out of this year if NOT increased confidence? In his second half stint as a starter he had a 3.57 ERA, 44 H, 5 HR, 56 Ks, a .222 BAA, and a 4.25 FIP. 34 BBs for a 5.77 BB/9, and 9.51 K/9. His strikeout rate was among the highest on the Reds, after Castillo and Iglesias, yet Marty Brennaman's big complaint after Stephenson's final start today was that Stephenson hasn't yet learned how to strike batters out, which seemed like the typical fact-adverse alternate-reality-dependent totally context-absent Stephenson criticism that I've grown so used to. Stephenson has a great arm, and I'm really excited to see him in 2018 after this big step forward. He's gone from a struggling young pitching prospect to a MLB starter with relatively minor problems (BBs) and huge upside. He should definitely start 2018 in the Reds rotation, probably as the 5th starter largely due to depth.
RHP Sal Romano, 24 - 'Big Sal' hit 98.2mph and averaged 95.2 on his fastball in 2017, quietly making him one of the harder throwing starters in baseball. He's long been highly regarded in Reds country, but perhaps unnoticed or underrated externally, as a young kid from cold weather Connecticut. Back in 2015 I remember arguments with unnamed persons about how his 88 strikeouts in 127 innings as a 21 year old meant he'd never strike guys out (also a commonly voiced criticism in scouting reports), and therefore would never cut it as a starter. In 2016 he struck out nearly a batter an inning in AA Pensacola as a 22 year old, with 2.0 BB/9, but his prospect ranking seemed to barely shift. His BB rate was much higher this year in MLB than it was in the minors, but Romano has made huge improvements just to get here, and I believe in his ability to bring it down. He's got a great power arm and I'm really excited to see him pitch in 2018. He SHOULD be in the rotation on opening day, barring a surplus of candidates, in which case some more time in AAA wouldn't hurt. He still needs further development, but he's already developed far enough to be relatively successful in the majors. I just think he can be better than he's shown by refining his control. Young power arms who throw strikes are awesome.
RHP Tyler Mahle, 23 - He's one of the few guys who didn't struggle in his first go-around in MLB, although he walked a ton of guys for somebody whose control has long been so celebrated, so that's an obvious area for improvement. He just turned 23... TODAY... so he's really young. He might not have the upside of other guys, but I've seen no reason to think he can't be a solid major league starter for a long time. He seems as 'safe' a rotation candidate as anybody in the organization, both having raw talent and an understanding of pitching and how to throw where he wants to. Probably what surprised me most is probably that from the way he'd been described... a guy with average pitches and average control and a good knowledge of pitching but not remarkable velocity... that he hit 96.7mph in a game, and apparently he's been clocked higher in the past. Of course he averages a normal-ish 92.7mph. I hope he can start 2018 in AAA Louisville for service time issues, like Mike Leake should've. Mahle will be around for a long time and probably doesn't need more time in the minors, but the organization needs to ensure they get an extra year of control.
RHP Luis Castillo, 25 - Everyone is excited about him, there's little more for me to add. I think he should start on Opening Night while a veteran starts on opening day.
LHP Brandon Finnegan, 25 - Lost season, hopefully he makes a full recovery - it may be hard to remember now, but he showed a lot of reason for enthusiasm back in the second half of 2016. I have no idea if he'll end up returning as a starter, or be pushed to the bullpen due to a rotation surplus and his own durability concerns. Either way I'm optimistic that he'll do really well.
Hitters:3b Nick Senzel, 22 - He's the most exciting hitting prospect since Jay Bruce. I expect he'll debut for the Reds in 2018, after starting the season in Louisville. It seems like a question of when, rather than if. Unlike Kris Bryant of the Cubs they made a point of NOT promoting him to AAA this year (Bryant played 70 games in AAA in 2014 before controversially being sent back in 2015 to avoid a full year of service time), so I guess he might be there for a while. At least until after the projected Super Two deadline. After a slow-ish start in Daytona he dominated in AA. I can't wait (well, I can, and will, as I want more service time!) to see him playing for the Reds. It'll be fascinating to see if he shifts to 2b in the spring. And I'm excited to find where he now ranks on top prospect lists. I think he'll be a cornerstone of the Reds lineup... which can really use a righthanded cornerstone aside from Eugenio Suarez.
OF Jesse Winker, 24 - Surpassing even Sal Romano and Robert Stephenson as the guy who I think has long been faced with the silliest, most illogical, and most irrational criticism, it's been exciting to see his 2018 debut. He needs to be a starting corner outfielder for the Reds in 2018. Although Duvall and Schebler also need to start, making a trade likely. In his ~45 games Winker has shown his bat, his power, his patience, just about everything you look for in a young hitter. I'm very excited, but not particularly surprised. I never thought there was much to any of the varied arguments by people writing him off in recent years, largely for his lack of homeruns. Even if he never becomes a big power hitter (and his 7 HRs are a fluke) he's shown plenty with the bat to be a valuable hitter. I feel strongly that he should lead off in 2018, with Votto hitting third. I doubt he'll score as many more runs in that role than Billy Hamilton as most people want to believe, as he'll probably be doubled up and stranded a lot more, and won't score in many situations Billy does, but he'll offer the first OBP machine leadoff hitter the Reds have had since Shin Soo Choo.
OF Scott Schebler, 27 - He turns 27 during the playoffs, but has quietly had a good year, despite an atrocious July slump after injuring his shoulder. You know, on that play where many of us thought he had dislocated his shoulder and would be out for the year, and were worried. But he reported that he was fine in a couple of days and was back in the lineup, presumably worried about the threat of losing his job to Jesse Winker, and being a wimp when real men play through their injuries. Anyway, he rebounded nicely in August. His BABIP on the season is .248, which common sense suggests is unsustainable low, in a season in which he hit 30 homeruns despite basically losing a month. All season I've heard kinda irrational criticisms of Schebler, especially in comparison to Duvall (Duvall hits more homeruns! [uh, they were neck-in-neck all year], Duvall walks more [factually inaccurate], Schebler strikes out more [factually inaccurate], Schebler can't hit lefties [factually inaccurate, at least with current data]). In my opinion there's no question that Schebler>Duvall, even if you forget Duvall's second half slide. I think Duvall's throwing arm is the ONLY strength he has over Schebler. Schebler is younger, has more team control, better range, better speed, a better hit tool, better plate discipline, better power... and a better fit for GABP. I think Schebler is quietly becoming the next Jay Bruce or Todd Frazier, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him hit 40 homeruns with a ~.350 OBP next season. The notion of benching Schebler is absurd, in my opinion.
INF Eugenio Suarez, 26 - he only turns 27 in July, and already looks to me like a cornerstone. His OBP increase this year is great news. I think he can hit 30+ homeruns. I think he can play 2b or SS, if they ask. He's an exciting player whose future position remains uncertain despite his tremendous defense at 3b, but I always value versatility. After Barnhart's extension Suarez implied that he'd be interested in signing a long term extension, which I REALLY hope the Reds pursue this winter, for such a talented, young, and versatile player. He's currently controlled through 2020... I'd be thrilled if the Reds buy out his arbitration years and some free agent years, offering him guaranteed money in exchange for limiting the amount the Reds pay when he gets better... and providing long term cost certainty.
OF Phil Ervin, 25 - I think he was written off really prematurely by many Reds fans, maybe not by ditching the 'future starter' label but with people calling him a bust or a failed pick, as though he'd never deserve a spot on a MLB roster. I recall, at the time, hoping for Aaron Judge to be drafted, which in retrospect looked like the best decision (although I would've been okay with Sean Manaea too!). He's really taken advantage of his first shot with the Reds, and I'm excited to see what he can do next year. I think he should return to AAA Louisville in 2018 to play everyday to start the season, but I think he'll earn his way back. His 2018 season wasn't perfect, but it was nevertheless solid, where he again showed his ability to help a team in lots of ways - hitting some power, stealing some bases, drawing walks, getting on base, playing anywhere in the outfield, albeit without great range in CF. Even if he's relegated to a spot on the bench I think he can fit in well, and help the team in lots of ways. His ability to cover CF, if not play everyday there, can provide lots of valuable versatility. From what I've read his low batting average is more a matter of approach rather than a lack of talent. I'm excited to see his 2018 season. Hopefully he can build on 2017, his first season in AAA and his first look at the majors.
INF Alex Blandino, 25 - In the previous post I compared his numbers to Matt Carpenter, who was also something of a late-bloomer who broke in as an everyday player in his age 26 season. Blandino's .382 OBP this season was darn impressive. For years I heard complaints that the organization needed to be more OBP focused, placing less emphasis on raw skills like speed and power, and Blandino is just that guy. From what I've read he's a good defender at both 2b and 3b, while walking a lot and being tough to strike out. He hit a respectable 12 homeruns this year, so he's got some power, even if not a great deal. He's a no-brainer to be added to the 40 man roster this winter, and he's a big part of why I feel so strongly about the need to trade Scooter Gennett after his breakout season. Blandino is currently like the 3rd or 4th or 5th (depending on what position you credit Peraza, Suarez/Senzel with, and Herrera's shoulder) on the 2b depth chart, and deserves a shot in the majors sooner rather than later, I think.
2b Dilson Herrera, 24 - As I've said before, it all comes down to his shoulder. It's his shoulder, not his development, that's holding him back. His whole career depends on his shoulder.
Relief Pitchers:
RHP Jimmy Herget, 24 - Guys with funny throwing styles are often fun to watch, and I'm excited to see the sidearmer. He struck out 72 in 62 innings for AA and AAA, serving as the closer at both levels. He basically dominated at both levels, without the walks of some of the other guys on this list. There's something to be said about being different from what's normally seen, and Herget is different from anyone else on this list. Hopefully he spends much of 2018 with the Reds, after spending a few weeks in Louisville. I suspect the main reason he didn't get a September call-up was their impending offseason roster crunch, and not wanting to add him prematurely. The Reds haven't had a good sidearmer that I can remember since Scott Sullivan.
RHP Tanner Rainley, 25 - A closer drafted #71 overall as a college senior in 2015, he struck out 77 in 45 innings for Daytona this year, then 27 in 17 innings for AA Pensacola. Starting didn't work out for him and he walked 4.8 batters per 9 innings this year, but he only gave up 29 hits in 62 innings. Obviously lots of arguments can be made that he's an older guy facing younger competition at a relatively low level. All that being the case, I'm still really interested in seeing how he does when he debuts for the Reds, which will probably be in 2018. I assume he starts out in Louisville. His 95-98mph fastball and slider are fairly well regarded.
RHP Zach Weiss, 25 - He missed 2016 with elbow pain but, like Disco so far, got through without surgery. He returned to pitch 41 innings in 2017, including 28 in AA, where he struck out 37 batters. A trip to AAA Louisville is obviously the first step for 2018, but I'm excited to see him pitch well and earn a long awaited shot with the Reds.
RHP Austin Brice, 25 - He's battled various minor injuries all season long, but shouldn't be forgotten or written off. His numbers were pretty mediocre, but it's hard to know how to separate his struggles from his injuries. When he came over in the Dan Straily trade he was fairly well regarded, and I'm excited to see him get an actual look in a healthy 2018.
RHP Ariel Hernandez, 26 - I jokingly describe him as the Reds player most likely to kill somebody, with his combination of pitches, movement, and huge lapses in control. I wish we'd seen him more than the 18 games and 23 innings we have this year, but wow. Some nights he's utterly dominant and unhittable, others he can't come anywhere near the strike zone. He's a guy who hitters should approach by refusing to swing - if it's in the zone they won't hit it, if it's out of the zone it's a ball. With his huge control problems - and 7.2 BB/9 - he's hardly a 'safe' option, as you don't know what to expect on any given night, but he's as intriguing as a pure upside bullpen candidate as anyone anywhere. He gave up 14 H, 6 HR, 19 BB, and 28 K in 23.2 MLB innings. I don't know what better word there is for him than 'intriguing'. 'Safe' and 'reliable' definitely don't apply
But if he can just start locating his pitches he's got the talent to be an elite reliever.
Guys who I can't find the enthusiasm to be excited about, but I'm still curious if they play for the Reds, and how, in 2018:
RHP Rookie Davis, 25 - Rookie had a disappointing year, plain and simple. I think he's often underrated by many for the unpopularity of the deal in which he was acquired, but in 2017 he really played right into that pessimism. After a strange low ERA low strikeout 2016 season in AA his strikeouts were up in 2017 but his ERA in AAA ballooned to 4.77. And he got hammered, showing little reason for optimism, in his 7 games, 6 starts, and 24 innings with the Reds. I think it's way too early to give up on his career, but I think compelling arguments can be made for either of two paths... starting him in AAA again to hope for progress, or trying him as a short reliever. He's been passed by lots of other starters now, many of whom are younger, so he's dug himself into a deep hole.
RHP Keury Mella, 24 - The bum who was the centerpiece of the Leake trade that also included Adam Duvall, the results just haven't been there as a starter. A move to the bullpen - which some have long seen as his most likely destination - seems likely, but I guess a compelling case can be made for giving a 24 year old another season in the rotation. But, again, the Reds only have so many spots in Louisville's rotation.
RHP Jackson Stephens, 24 - He's a totally different case than disappointing Davis and Mella, as a guy who's rarely gotten attention and has just kinda slid under the radar, but nevertheless, he fails to generate much enthusiasm from me. His 4.92 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in AAA Louisville were kinda ugly, but he was 3.4 years below the average age at that level. He's looked good at times out of the Reds bullpen. I think the smart money is on him starting 2018 in Louisville's rotation, but again, there might be a surplus of candidates. Fast tracking him, like Davis or Mella, as a reliever seems conceivable. I just have no idea. I guess what I lack in enthusiasm for Stephens I make up for in curiosity about his unclear situation.
LHP Amir Garrett, 26 - I think he's occasionally been overrated by Reds fans, and often viewed fairly inconsistently or irrationally, at least in the sense of objecting to the control problems of others and denying the existence of HIS control problems. Oh yeah, and stressing his young age while holding younger guys' age (Stephenson, Reed, Finnegan) against them, ha. I think his reputation really benefited over the winter from NOT debuting in 2016, avoiding the scrutiny Stephenson and Reed's struggles attracted. Still, despite his ugly season riddled by injuries, mechanical problems, and what not, we saw early flashes of promise. I hope Garrett learned something from this year, perhaps that he needs to keep working, fighting, and adjusting to be successful, and that he can't merely coast on some upward trajectory. Hopefully they mechanical tweaks they're working with him on in recent weeks help. I think he really needs a fresh start in 2018, and to open the season in Louisville's rotation. He's pushed himself down the depth chart a bit, but he has the talent to fight his way back up. I'm hopeful he can, but I don't care quite as much as I do about some of the other guys.
LHP Cody Reed, 25 - It seems like a lost season for Cody Reed, but when you look into it, that's kinda silly. He ended up putting up a 3.55 ERA in AAA with 105 hits and 102 Ks in 106 IPs in Louisville, so not quite the ugliness I think of when I think of a 'lost season'. His numbers with the Reds were pretty ugly, and most importantly his walk rate exploded, up from 2.5 BB/9 in AAA last year to 5.2 this year. As he apparently worked to rebuild his rotation after determining he was tipping his pitches. Hopefully he can remodel his rotation without losing what made him so highly regarded for a couple of years, it's presumably a matter of videowork and repetition, which is a lot better than rehab. He's reported a minor shoulder injury, but who knows what impact that has. I'm hopeful that a fresh start to the 2018 season, in Louisville, can help him rediscover his control (while generating deception by not tipping pitches). I'm a little worried that the Reds will hastily turn to him for short relief help if and when he does start throwing strikes, though. I think he should keep starting through 2018. Still, I lack the enthusiasm I once had for him... unlike guys at the top of this list I don't imagine myself thinking "geez, I want to go buy a ticket to see this guy pitch in person". Although Reed, like Garrett, certainly has all the talent needed to pitch himself back into that category.
INF/OF Jose Peraza, 24 - He had an unremarkable year, no question about it, but I think he still has a long career ahead of him. Got to remember that he's still a really young guy, and a guy who can play three of the hardest positions on the field to fill (SS, CF, 2b). His BB% did increase in the second half, now at 3.9% after being at 2.7% last year. He's mostly a singles hitter but, I still believe, one with the ability to hit for a high average and steal a lot of bases. He has a reasonable .329 OBP in the second half, largely from his increased BB rate... similar to his seasonal OBP from 2016 (.324), albeit with a sustainable .292 BABIP rather than last year's high .361. He could enter 2018 in any number of roles - backup SS/2b/CF, starting SS, starting 2b, possibly even starting CF if Hamilton is traded. He'll be interesting to watch, but I'm not really buying a ticket to see him.
Noteworthy young guys who I don't have much to say about:
C Tucker Barnhart - work on pitch framing? All that's left to improve.
CF Billy Hamilton - Trade bait?
RHP Michael Lorenzen - Don't add stupid things to your windup again to make yourself worse.
LHP Wandy Peralta - It's been a long season, you deserve a rest.
Bonus Guy who won't be on the Reds... but... like... I'll spend all winter wondering about:
C Chris Okey, 22 - Nobody seemed to think he was anything but a good draft pick, but boy was his season ugly. All teams have picks that go bust sometimes (in fairness it's way too early to call him a bust), but it seems extra odd for that to be in a relatively safe player. He'll probably hit much better in 2018, but if he doesn't it'll probably have major repercussions for the organization's catching situation. He's nearly 2 years older than Tyler Stephenson, for whatever that's worth. Perhaps it wasn't the worst performance by a Reds prospect, but I definitely think Okey had by far the worst performance relatively to the expectations placed upon him.