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Post by schellis on May 22, 2017 13:44:09 GMT -5
They'd also rarely win because a pitching staff of Leake's isn't going to complete against a team with front line pitching. Also if all you draft are low ceiling/high floor mid to back of the rotation starters you aren't going to have the bats to compete. For the Reds to compete they need to aim higher then high floor/low ceiling. THats fine when you are drafting in the middle to end of draft, but when you are picking in the top 5 you need to draft better. Looking over the top two from the past 12 years, high majority make majors and are at least average players (Leake) Yes there are plenty that go bust and are lesser then Leake, but its likley only way the REds are going to get the greater end. "Rarely win" They'd win a hell of a lot more than they are doing now. If this club had 5 #3 starters in their rotation each pitching 180 innings - they'd be winning. Not to mention, with the surplus "Leake's" they'd be able to trade to bolster the club elsewhere. You, as a fan, should be ecstatic if they draft a Mike Leake type pitcher in this draft - even if it's with the #2 pick. Leake at his peak is a 3, most of the time he's a 4/5 arm. In the playoffs those are the guys you generally have as long men out of the pen not starters. 5 Leakes may get you to the playoffs, honestly once the Reds are healthy that is the rotation they'll likely have, but they aren't going to win you anything. The Reds need to do more then play it safe.
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Post by kinsm on May 22, 2017 13:52:28 GMT -5
"Rarely win" They'd win a hell of a lot more than they are doing now. If this club had 5 #3 starters in their rotation each pitching 180 innings - they'd be winning. Not to mention, with the surplus "Leake's" they'd be able to trade to bolster the club elsewhere. You, as a fan, should be ecstatic if they draft a Mike Leake type pitcher in this draft - even if it's with the #2 pick. Leake at his peak is a 3, most of the time he's a 4/5 arm. In the playoffs those are the guys you generally have as long men out of the pen not starters. 5 Leakes may get you to the playoffs, honestly once the Reds are healthy that is the rotation they'll likely have, but they aren't going to win you anything. The Reds need to do more then play it safe. The Reds need to finish above .500, something they've only done 5 times since 1997.
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Post by kinsm on May 22, 2017 13:53:31 GMT -5
And Leake was on 3 of those 5 teams.
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Post by kinsm on May 22, 2017 13:54:52 GMT -5
And FYI: I don't think you have any clue what the average production is from a #4 / #5 starter.
They are horrendously worse than Leake's average production.
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Post by schellis on May 22, 2017 14:01:25 GMT -5
And FYI: I don't think you have any clue what the average production is from a #4 / #5 starter. They are horrendously worse than Leake's average production. The 4/5 starters on most above .500 teams are like Leake 3.75-4.25 ERA and around .500 w/l record. Leake is a quality major league starter, but you don't pass up ace upside to draft Mike Leake. If Strasburg and Leake were available to the Reds in the 2009 draft, I can't see the Reds taking Leake. Even though their WAR are fairly similar at this point in their careers.
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Post by schellis on May 22, 2017 14:10:48 GMT -5
And Leake was on 3 of those 5 teams. And he was the number 4 starter on them behind Cueto, Latos, and Bailey. On the Cards he's back end as well. Yes he's better then the majority of 4/5 starters, but he's also far below the guys that are normally the front end starters as well. In Leake's time with the Reds this was his line...He made 163 starts (so we can say thats a rotation of Leakes) 62-47 with a 3.87 ERA averaging around 190 IP with a 1.26 WHIP 9.2 hits per 9, 2.2 walks and 6.1 k's. 3 CG with no SHO and a 8.5 WAR All in all very solid and you can win with that with a good pen that you can go to early, but against front line guys that 62-47 will fall close to .500, which is what his average is for his career I'm not arguing that he isn't good. I'm arguing that he's not elite and the Reds need to get elite talent whenever they can.
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Post by redsfanman on May 22, 2017 16:31:14 GMT -5
I'm on board with any of the three - Greene, McKay, Wright. They each have their well known pros and cons. Of course as we debate who's the best choice we're assuming that they stay healthy, which you never really know.
Even if Hunter Greene goes bust nobody can seriously criticize the team for taking the consensus best talent in the draft.
Wright has been rising for weeks while McKay's pitching seems like a cause of rising concern, as I read about his velocity dropping a bit and some recent struggles. I definitely like the concept of avoiding the inevitable move-McKay-to-1b debate, if Wright can justify that. Heck, the Leake=McKay=? debate is annoying enough. If the Reds' scouts think highly of Wright, cool.
In the current debate, Kinsm is right.
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Post by kinsm on May 22, 2017 17:46:16 GMT -5
And FYI: I don't think you have any clue what the average production is from a #4 / #5 starter. They are horrendously worse than Leake's average production. The 4/5 starters on most above .500 teams are like Leake 3.75-4.25 ERA and around .500 w/l record. Leake is a quality major league starter, but you don't pass up ace upside to draft Mike Leake. If Strasburg and Leake were available to the Reds in the 2009 draft, I can't see the Reds taking Leake. Even though their WAR are fairly similar at this point in their careers. A #3 starter - even on a good team is a 4.50 ERA pitcher and gets 6+ innings in maybe half their starts. Leake in his prime was a solid #2 starter for just about any club.
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Post by The Duke on May 24, 2017 7:24:46 GMT -5
A good 45 minute MLB Draft podcast from Baseball America. JJ Cooper, John Manuel, and Hudson Belinsky. It was a Facebook Live one too, so any references to that is why. A lot of good info about the top 5-7 guys in the draft as well as some questions about other potential 1st rd picks. They each pick a hypothetical top 5 picks if they got to choose for every team, they still seem pretty high on Royce Lewis too. It's the May 23 MLB Draft oneAn interesting tidbit they had on Kyle Wright was that he apparently has added a ton of muscle over the past few years (Deadlifting 700 lbs in 3 sets of 8). Talked about how that threw off his mechanics coming into this year and attributed his slow start to that and his recent dominance to figuring it out. Also called his fastball command elite, and his command overall as plus.
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Post by redskoolaiddrinker on May 24, 2017 8:02:38 GMT -5
A good 45 minute MLB Draft podcast from Baseball America. JJ Cooper, John Manuel, and Hudson Belinsky. It was a Facebook Live one too, so any references to that is why. A lot of good info about the top 5-7 guys in the draft as well as some questions about other potential 1st rd picks. They each pick a hypothetical top 5 picks if they got to choose for every team, they still seem pretty high on Royce Lewis too. It's the May 23 MLB Draft oneAn interesting tidbit they had on Kyle Wright was that he apparently has added a ton of muscle over the past few years (Deadlifting 700 lbs in 3 sets of 8). Talked about how that threw off his mechanics coming into this year and attributed his slow start to that and his recent dominance to figuring it out. Also called his fastball command elite, and his command overall as plus. Kyle Wright is who I want. I understand Hunter Greene as a potential ace, but Kyle Wright can be a TOR guy and fits better with our window. Just hope it's not McKay unless he's underslot and gets us a Jo Adell later.
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Post by The Duke on May 24, 2017 8:22:39 GMT -5
I'd be happy with either Wright or Greene. I prefer McKay as a hitter by a good margin to a pitcher, and with Joey Votto signed through 2024, that doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds, especially since 1B don't usually hold as much trade value. In my mock draft I actually have Wright going #1 overall, and us taking Greene at #2. www.draftsite.com/mydraftsite/The_Duke/mlb/mock-draft/2017/
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Post by oldschoolstyle on May 24, 2017 11:59:29 GMT -5
I'd be happy with either Wright or Greene. I prefer McKay as a hitter by a good margin to a pitcher, and with Joey Votto signed through 2024, that doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds, especially since 1B don't usually hold as much trade value. In my mock draft I actually have Wright going #1 overall, and us taking Greene at #2. www.draftsite.com/mydraftsite/The_Duke/mlb/mock-draft/2017/I'm starting to worry it will be Wright #1 and us taking McKay #2. That's the worst scenario to me.
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Post by schellis on May 24, 2017 12:41:05 GMT -5
I'd be happy with either Wright or Greene. I prefer McKay as a hitter by a good margin to a pitcher, and with Joey Votto signed through 2024, that doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds, especially since 1B don't usually hold as much trade value. In my mock draft I actually have Wright going #1 overall, and us taking Greene at #2. www.draftsite.com/mydraftsite/The_Duke/mlb/mock-draft/2017/I'm starting to worry it will be Wright #1 and us taking McKay #2. That's the worst scenario to me. McKay screams safe minimal upside play as a pitcher. Most teams seem to be looking at him as a bat at this point. Any time the Reds go against the grain it seems to backfire. There are a ton of relievers that the Reds drafted hoping to turn into starters when the league all said they're relievers. With McKay I see a bat that could be a backend starter swing man pitcher. I'm fine drafting someone that will come quicker, but pick someone with a higher ceiling as a arm if you want a arm. Best case for McKay is he's Leake, worst case he's someone that will bounce between rotation and the pen.
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Post by kinsm on May 26, 2017 1:11:10 GMT -5
And FYI: I don't think you have any clue what the average production is from a #4 / #5 starter. They are horrendously worse than Leake's average production. The 4/5 starters on most above .500 teams are like Leake 3.75-4.25 ERA and around .500 w/l record. Yeah, they aren't!!!
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Post by kinsm on May 26, 2017 1:12:25 GMT -5
Leake's ERA by the way currently leads the NL. LOL, he's good but not that good.
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