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Post by redsfanman on Apr 2, 2015 15:13:27 GMT -5
Related to today's news, when Homer Bailey returns from the DL they'll have to make a corresponding 25 man roster move. The three most likely possibilities are, in my opinion in order of likelihood:
1. Option JJ Hoover to Louisville, move Raciel Iglesias to the Reds bullpen. 2. Option Raciel Iglesias to Louisville to pitch in the rotation. 3. DFA Jason Marquis, retaining Raciel Iglesias as the 5th starter (unlikely, but we can hope...).
JJ Hoover made the Reds out of spring training, but there's a possibility that he could be shipped out when Bailey returns, depending on whether or not the Reds think Iglesias is ready to be a starter... as opposed to spending a season in the bullpen in preparation for a future transition as they've previously discussed. I feared that outcome for Lorenzen, but at least there'd be some logic to it with Iglesias.
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Post by redsfanman on Apr 2, 2015 19:46:21 GMT -5
Dylan Axelrod was outrighted to AAA, according to MLBTradeRumors, meaning he's off the 40 man roster. Not unexpected. Dennick and Villarreal seem to have retained their 40 man roster spots, much to my surprise.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Apr 2, 2015 22:43:38 GMT -5
So it seems Bailey goes on the 15 day not 60 day DL. The Reds need to add four - Boesch, Dominguez, Gregg, Marquis. They get two spots assuming Bourgeois and Marshall hit the 60 day, and Axelrod and Lecure being outrighted to AAA.
Unless Jocko picked up somebody on waivers...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2015 5:02:20 GMT -5
This is some puzzling stuff, for certain. They outright Lecure even though he still had options, keep absolute dead weight like Juan Duran and Villareal. Dominguez, Gregg and Marquis make the team. Holy crap this sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Chris Dominguez is this year's Roger Bernadina. I seriously doubt he'll last a month. How Lecure cleared waivers is a mystery to me. I can't imagine all 29 other teams passing on him.
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Post by psuhistory on Apr 3, 2015 6:49:56 GMT -5
They outright Lecure even though he still had options, keep absolute dead weight like Juan Duran and Villareal. I guess they see Villareal as part of their sp depth and maybe figure they're more likely to lose an sp on waivers. But it makes no sense to look at LeCure and Villareal as pitchers and conclude that LeCure is the one who has to go...
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Post by cbassxu on Apr 3, 2015 7:40:14 GMT -5
Having a couple of dead spots on the 40 man could be good this time of year, maybe we could pick up someone that a team is trying to sneak through waivers. Of course that won't actually happen, but dreaming is fun.
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Post by kinsm on Apr 3, 2015 7:50:25 GMT -5
This is some puzzling stuff, for certain. They outright Lecure even though he still had options, keep absolute dead weight like Juan Duran and Villareal. Dominguez, Gregg and Marquis make the team. Holy crap this sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Chris Dominguez is this year's Roger Bernadina. I seriously doubt he'll last a month. How Lecure cleared waivers is a mystery to me. I can't imagine all 29 other teams passing on him. When a player is outrighted off a 40 man roster for the 2nd time he has the option of electing free agency. Pedro Villarreal has been outrighted before, if they want him for depth and were worried he's leave that could explain why he wasn't outrighted. Dylan Axelrod has never been outrighted, so as long as they felt he wouldn't be claimed on waivers (safe bet) and still wanted him for depth he was a good choice to be outrighted. And due to their salary "restrictions" they may have been hoping Sam LeCure was claimed - jettisoning his salary?! Though some on here seem to think his salary is fine, it's a good chunk of change for a team to take on the week before opening day (most teams have spent their budgets), and most teams don't have open bullpen spots now anyway (those who do have already decided to give them to an NRI). They aren't ready to give up on Duran just yet - he might be converted to 1B at some point this year - that could potentially allow him to focus more on his hitting.
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Post by redsfanman on Apr 3, 2015 8:18:23 GMT -5
I don't think it's too puzzling. They might have known that Sam LeCure's contract wouldn't be claimed off waivers, and he was personally committed enough to the organization (and his contract) not to leave when given a choice.
The Reds were apparently concerned with LeCure's velocity and control in spring, other teams' scouts may not have been terribly interested. In my opinion teams are more likely to gamble on rebounds by harder throwing pitchers. In Reds country it seems like people get angry when the Reds make emotional decisions about players (keep this guy, he's a fan favorite) but also angry when they don't (who cares how LeCure was pitching, he's a fan favorite!). Based on Bryan Price's evaluation of LeCure's spring it sounds like giving LeCure a bullpen spot would've been a purely emotional decision based on his popularity with the team.
I don't think they see Villarreal as part of their starting pitching depth, they converted him to the bullpen in 2014 and have shown no signs of converting him back. Since he costs next to nothing maybe they were worried that he'd be claimed. A 27 year old occasionally hitting 95mph (according to Pitch/FX) might get some attention as a no-risk acquisition/project.
I think the Reds are pretty proud of their late waiver claim of Alfredo Simon, just before opening day 2012. Maybe it won't happen this year, but the Reds are in a position to make a waiver claim or two this year if they see anyone appealing. Heck, they made a somewhat similar waiver claim this winter in Keyvius Sampson. I'm not terribly disappointed by having Dennick and Villarreal on the roster, they could be ditched at any time to make room for a new acquisition or prospect.
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Post by psuhistory on Apr 3, 2015 8:28:43 GMT -5
I don't think they see Villarreal as part of their starting pitching depth, they converted him to the bullpen in 2014 and have shown no signs of converting him back. Since he costs next to nothing maybe they were worried that he'd be claimed. A 27 year old occasionally hitting 95mph (according to Pitch/FX) might get some attention as a no-risk acquisition/project. The point was that he can start and that this could affect perceptions of his value, not that the Reds are developing him as a starter...
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Post by psuhistory on Apr 3, 2015 8:32:08 GMT -5
I doubt the Reds wanted or expected to lose Sam LeCure. But the question of how/why they value these other players or calculate the odds of losing them is interesting...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2015 8:44:19 GMT -5
For someone that goes by the moniker of fanman I seriously wonder if this cat even follows the Reds. You do realize that Villareal was converted to relieving 2 years ago don't you? And to his credit he performed better as a reliever than as a starter. But his MLB performance hasn't been good and he has been horrible this spring. Lecure out pitched Hoover and Badenhop if you put any weight whatsoever in spring training numbers.
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Post by redsfanman on Apr 3, 2015 8:46:10 GMT -5
I don't think they see Villarreal as part of their starting pitching depth, they converted him to the bullpen in 2014 and have shown no signs of converting him back. Since he costs next to nothing maybe they were worried that he'd be claimed. A 27 year old occasionally hitting 95mph (according to Pitch/FX) might get some attention as a no-risk acquisition/project. The point was that he can start and that this could affect perceptions of his value, not that the Reds are developing him as a starter... I guesssss... when young (or not so young) pitchers get removed from the rotation for ineffectiveness to focus on relieving they rarely go back. Alfredo Simon is an obvious but rare exception. It's not like the 2014 Louisville Bats team that converted Villarreal to the bullpen had enviable starting pitching depth that forced Villarreal out. They gave 15 starts to Brett Marshall (1-10 record, 6.53 ERA), 22 to Scott Diamond (5-12 record, 6.57 ERA). 28 starts to Chien-Ming Wang (who pitched fine, but not exactly a development asset). They even brought Matt Maloney back to start 2 games. It seems to me like Villarreal, Sampson, Corcino, and Contreras are all now being converted into relievers, and their history of starting may quickly become irrelevant. I doubt their struggles as starters improve perceptions of their value.
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Post by redsfanman on Apr 3, 2015 9:02:46 GMT -5
For someone that goes by the moniker of fanman I seriously wonder if this cat even follows the Reds. You do realize that Villareal was converted to relieving 2 years ago don't you? And to his credit he performed better as a reliever than as a starter. But his MLB performance hasn't been good and he has been horrible this spring. Lecure out pitched Hoover and Badenhop if you put any weight whatsoever in spring training numbers. Yes, he was converted during 2013, but he made 18 of 33 appearances as a starter. More than half his games and the vast majority of his innings in 2013 were as a starter. 2014 was Villarreal's first full season as a reliever. I'm often accused of being overly optimistic about Reds prospects. Pedro Villarreal, however, isn't one of those players I'm optimistic about. He never has been. He stinks, and has never made an impact with the Reds as a result. Following the Reds and being a Reds fan doesn't, in my opinion, require me to be supportive of all the organization's minor league filler. Yes, he performed better as a reliever. Why would I mention his starting pitching experience? That long post you're responding to was responses to points from several posts above... one of which included "I guess they see Villareal as part of their sp depth and maybe figure they're more likely to lose an sp on waivers". The person who said that kindly responded to the appropriate section, for a short discussion. If you're saying I don't follow the Reds because I don't know that Villarreal has given up on starting... well... the weird thing is that you and I are both making the same point. Villarreal isn't a starter anymore. I don't think he's part of the team's 'starting pitching depth' anymore. I don't think any team should see Villarreal as a starting candidate, or should care that he was a starter. I think he's overrated as a bullpen candidate (in the sense that he stinks and should be DFA-ed) but he's also the kinda guy who one of the 29 other teams might claim off waivers as a gamble. I try to value career numbers (which work in favor of Badenhop) and scouting reports (both long term [which reflect well on Hoover] and short term [which reflect poorly on LeCure this spring]. Spring training numbers don't mean jack. Bryan Price is supposed to be an expert on working with pitchers, and for the time being I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when his opinions conflict with the numbers (although Jason Marquis is really pushing it).
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Post by kinsm on Apr 3, 2015 9:16:16 GMT -5
I don't think it's too puzzling. They might have known that Sam LeCure's contract wouldn't be claimed off waivers, and he was personally committed enough to the organization (and his contract) not to leave when given a choice. No team is happy to pay someone 1.85 M$ for someone to play in AAA.
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Post by redsfanman on Apr 3, 2015 10:37:09 GMT -5
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