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Post by kinsm on Oct 12, 2013 23:31:47 GMT -5
It's a long way from opening day, but now that I've finished my arbitration estimates (link below) I thought I'd post the projected payroll. The Reds will surely make many changes to the roster and thus payroll, so I will continue to update this over the next six months. I.E. Free Agency begins 5 days after the final World Series game, and reserve rosters must be set by November 20th. redlegsbaseball.proboards.com/thread/13528/2013-cincinnati-reds-arbitration-estimates--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2014 Opening Day 40 Man PayrollRotation:RHSP - Johnny Cueto - 10,000,000 $ RHSP - Homer Bailey - 9,000,000 $ - (3 mil now - 6 mil in November) RHSP - Mike Leake - 5,925,000 $ LHSP - Tony Cingrani - 512,500 $ RHSP - Daniel Corcino - 81,500 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) LHSP - Ismael Guillon - 81,500 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) RHSP - Carlos Contreras - 81,500 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) LHSP - David Holmberg - 81,500 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) RHSP - Chad Rogers - 40,750 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) Bullpen:LHRP - Manny Parra - 2,000,000 $ RHRP - Alfredo Simon - 1,500,000 $ RHRP - Logan Ondrusek - 1,350,000 $ RHRP - Sam LeCure - 1,200,000 $ RHRP - J.J. Hoover - 520,000 $ RHRP - Nick Christiani - 500,000 $ RHRP - Trevor Bell - 500,000 $ RHRP - Curtis Partch - 500,000 $ Catchers:C - Brayan Pena - 875,000 $ C - Tucker Barnhart - 500,000 $ Infielders:1B - Joey Votto - 12,000,000 $ 2B - Brandon Phillips - 11,000,000 $ SS - Zack Cozart - 600,000 $ 3B - Todd Frazier - 600,000 $ MIF - Ramon Santiago - 1,100,000 $ CIF - Neftali Soto - 500,000 $ Outfielders:RF - Jay Bruce - 10,000,000 $ CF - Billy Hamilton - 500,000 $ LF - Ryan Ludwick - 7,500,000 $ OF - Chris Heisey - 1,760,000 $ OF - Roger Bernadina - 500,000 $ OF - Donald Lutz - 81,500 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) OF - Yorman Rodriguez - 81,500 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) OF - Ryan LaMarre - 40,750 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) OF - Juan Duran - 40,750 $ (prorated major league minimum of 500,000 $ if/when on active 25 man roster) Disabled List:RHSP - Mat Latos - 7,250,000 $ RHSP - Brett Marshall - 500,000 $ LHRP - Aroldis Chapman - 9,500,000 $ (5,000,000 $ base + 4,500,000 $ bonus) RHRP - Jon Broxton - 7,000,000 $ LHRP - Sean Marshall - 5,500,000 $ C - Devin Mesoraco - 525,000 $ CIF - Jack Hannahan - 1,000,000 $ (60 day disabled list) 2B/OF - Skip Schumaker - 2,000,000 $ Dead Money:SP - Bronson Arroyo - 2,000,000 $ (deferred contract) RHRP - Pedro Beato - 512,500 $ OF - Ken Griffey Jr. - 3,000,000 $ (deferred contract) Total Payroll = 120,341,250 $*Last year's payroll was approximately 104,865,000 $ ( redlegsbaseball.proboards.com/thread/12149/2013-reds-payroll-set-pass ) |
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Post by kinsm on Oct 13, 2013 0:09:19 GMT -5
Jon Broxton had elbow surgery to repair a torn flexor mass in his right forearm on August 23rd, the expected rehab is 6 months at a minimum. It'll be interesting to see if he's ready to report to Goodyear in mid-February, if not the Reds will likely go slow with him which would increase the likelihood of him spending opening day on the disabled list.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 13, 2013 3:13:48 GMT -5
A look at who still has options remaining:
3 Options remaining:
Mat Latos
Mike Leake
Chad Rogers
Nick Christiani
Devin Mesoraco
Tucker Barnhart
Billy Hamilton
Juan Duran
Ryan LaMarre
2 Options remaining:
Tony Cingrani (burned 2013 w/ CIN)
Daniel Corcino (burned 2013 w/ CIN)
Ismael Guillon (burned 2013 w/ CIN)
Carlos Contreras (burned 2013 w/ CIN)
David Holmberg (burned 2013 w/ ARI)
Brett Marshall (burned 2013 w/ NYY)
Aroldis Chapman (burned 2010 w/ CIN)
J.J. Hoover (burned 2012 w/ CIN)
Curtis Partch (burned 2013 w/ CIN)
Todd Frazier (burned 2011 w/ CIN)
Zack Cozart (burned 2011 w/ CIN)
Chris Heisey (burned 2010 w/ CIN)
Yorman Rodriguez (burned 2013 w/ CIN)
1 Option remaining:
Sam LeCure (burned 2009 w/ CIN, and 2010 w/ CIN)
Logan Ondrusek (burned 2010 w/ CIN, and 2013 w/ CIN)
Pedro Beato (burned 2012 w/ NYM, and 2013 w/ BOS)
Henry Rodriguez (burned 2012 w/ CIN, and 2013 w/ CIN)
Neftali Soto (burned 2012 w/ CIN, and 2013 w/ CIN)
Donald Lutz (burned 2012 w/ CIN, and 2013 w/ CIN)
0 Options remaining:
Alfredo Simon
Xavier Paul (burned 2008 w/ LA, 2009 w/ LA, and 2010 w/ LA)
Derrick Robinson (burned 2011 w/ KC, 2012 w/ KC, and 2013 w/ CIN)
Can't be Optioned (Players with 5+ years of service can't be optioned w/o their approval no matter whether or not all of their options were previously burned):
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Jon Broxton
Manny Parra
Sean Marshall
Brayan Pena
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Jack Hannahan
Skip Schumaker
Ryan Ludwick
Jay Bruce
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Post by vtreds22 on Oct 13, 2013 11:58:36 GMT -5
Appreciate all the work you've put into some of these off-season threads, kinsm. I suspect we'll be using this thread as a reference quite a bit this season.
I do expect a slight payroll increase this season. It was at $106-107 million IIRC last season, so I'm expecting anywhere between $110-115 million this year. I suspect the roster will look different from what you currently have listed, but I'm expecting the Reds to shake things up a bit this winter. I think the final payroll estimate you have will be close.
Just curious, did you include the dead money on deferred contracts into the payroll? I could be wrong, but I believe I read somewhere once that the Reds didn't include money on deferred contracts into their year-to-year payrolls. I'll have to check sometime later though to make sure that just isn't in my head.
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 13, 2013 12:07:10 GMT -5
Over the last ten years, how much has the Reds total payroll increased relative to league average or as a percentage of total league wide payroll? I don't have a good feel for how much the Reds payroll has jumped compared to the competition and how much is just league wide increases.
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Post by rocky15231 on Oct 13, 2013 16:01:57 GMT -5
Over the last ten years, how much has the Reds total payroll increased relative to league average or as a percentage of total league wide payroll? I don't have a good feel for how much the Reds payroll has jumped compared to the competition and how much is just league wide increases. Good question. During the big spending boom in the late 90's/early 2000's, I'd guarantee the Reds didn't increase on average with some others. That does make some sense however, the Reds didn't have a whole lot of talent to spend it on. I'd guess that in the last 4-5 years, where spending league-wise has been tapered a bit, the Reds have increased more than the league average. Afterall, the Reds have been in the top half of MLB in payroll for the last 3 years. I can't ever remember that happening for 15 years prior. |
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 14, 2013 13:40:26 GMT -5
Ok, I was curious enough to do it myself. So, based on Cot's reported salary figures:
Year_Reds Total Team Salary
2013 $106,855,533
2012 $87,826,167
2011 $80,826,667
2010 $76,151,500
2009 $73,558,500
2008 $74,117,695
2007 $68,904,980
2006 $60,909,519
2005 $61,892,583
2004 $46,615,250
2003 $59,355,667
2002 $45,050,390
2001 $48,986,000
2000 $44,200,000
Total $935,250,451
Interestingly enough, for the period of 2000-2013, the Reds creeped up above the average MLB payroll for the first time in 2013. Not coincidentally, it's the first time we exceeded $100M, too. Here is the Reds salary compared to the MLB league average:
Year_Reds vs. League AVG
2013 $736,448.10
2012 -$12,529,465.17
2011 -$15,062,551.43
2010 -$17,460,807.87
2009 -$15,318,783.13
2008 -$15,433,586.93
2007 -$13,729,752.57
2006 -$16,647,353.87
2005 -$11,170,313.60
2004 -$22,426,948.10
2003 -$11,559,781.70
2002 -$22,438,862.40
2001 -$16,476,063.77
2000 -$12,493,820.80
Total -$202,011,643.23
Prior to 2013, the Reds had been below league average. Obviously, league average is skewed by the massive payrolls of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers, so comparison with the median salary would look more favorable for us.
And, here is the Reds total salaries as a percentage of all MLB salary spending:
Year_% of Total MLB
2013 3.36%
2012 2.92%
2011 2.81%
2010 2.71%
2009 2.76%
2008 2.76%
2007 2.78%
2006 2.62%
2005 2.82%
2004 2.25%
2003 2.79%
2002 2.23%
2001 2.49%
2000 2.60%
Total 2.74%
So, we are certainly trending upwards with our spending.
And, here is the Reds total salaries as a percentage of all NL Central (minus the Astros, for convenience) salary spending:
Year_% of Total NL Central
2013 22.0%
2012 19.1%
2011 18.0%
2010 17.1%
2009 17.3%
2008 17.6%
2007 18.7%
2006 17.5%
2005 19.4%
2004 16.6%
2003 18.6%
2002 15.6%
2001 16.7%
2000 18.8%
Total 18.2%
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Post by psuhistory on Oct 14, 2013 20:17:18 GMT -5
Ok, I was curious enough to do it myself. So, based on Cot's reported salary figures: Year_Reds Total Team Salary2013 $106,855,533 2012 $87,826,167 2011 $80,826,667 2010 $76,151,500 2009 $73,558,500 2008 $74,117,695 2007 $68,904,980 2006 $60,909,519 2005 $61,892,583 2004 $46,615,250 2003 $59,355,667 2002 $45,050,390 2001 $48,986,000 2000 $44,200,000Total $935,250,451 Interestingly enough, for the period of 2000-2013, the Reds creeped up above the average MLB payroll for the first time in 2013. Not coincidentally, it's the first time we exceeded $100M, too. Here is the Reds salary compared to the MLB league average: Year_Reds vs. League AVG2013 $736,448.10 2012 -$12,529,465.172011 -$15,062,551.432010 -$17,460,807.872009 -$15,318,783.132008 -$15,433,586.932007 -$13,729,752.572006 -$16,647,353.872005 -$11,170,313.602004 -$22,426,948.102003 -$11,559,781.702002 -$22,438,862.402001 -$16,476,063.772000 -$12,493,820.80Total -$202,011,643.23Prior to 2013, the Reds had been below league average. Obviously, league average is skewed by the massive payrolls of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers, so comparison with the median salary would look more favorable for us. And, here is the Reds total salaries as a percentage of all MLB salary spending: Year_% of Total MLB2013 3.36% 2012 2.92% 2011 2.81% 2010 2.71% 2009 2.76% 2008 2.76% 2007 2.78% 2006 2.62% 2005 2.82% 2004 2.25% 2003 2.79% 2002 2.23% 2001 2.49% 2000 2.60%Total 2.74% So, we are certainly trending upwards with our spending. And, here is the Reds total salaries as a percentage of all NL Central (minus the Astros, for convenience) salary spending: Year_% of Total NL Central2013 22.0% 2012 19.1% 2011 18.0% 2010 17.1% 2009 17.3% 2008 17.6% 2007 18.7% 2006 17.5% 2005 19.4% 2004 16.6% 2003 18.6% 2002 15.6% 2001 16.7% 2000 18.8%Total 18.2% There's Eric Milton waving from 2005... |
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Post by kinsm on Oct 17, 2013 1:23:39 GMT -5
2013 MLB Revenues won't be released for another month or two, but they are expected to reach 8 billion $ for the first time.
Starting in 2014, new national broadcast contracts with Fox, ESPN and TBS will add an additional 788.3 million $ to that haul.
COMPARISON CHART DETAILING FINANCIAL INFO
Broadcast Partner - Prior (Annually) - New (Annually) - Increase (Annually) - Total Contract
ESPN - $306 million - $700 million - $394 million - $5.6 billion
FOX - $257.1 million - $500 million - $242.9 million - $4 billion
TBS - $148.6 million - $300 million - $151.4 million - $2.4 billion
TOTAL - $711.7 million - $1.5 billion - $788.3 million - $12 billion
Year - Total Regular Season Attendance - Total League Revenues - Total Opening Day Payrolls - Payroll as a % of Revenues
1998 - 70.4 million - 2.5 billion $ - 1.210 billion $ - 48.4%
1999 - 70.1 million - 2.8 billion $ - 1.445 billion $ - 51.6%
2000 - 72.7 million - 3.4 billion $ - 1.676 billion $ - 49.3%
2001 - 72.4 million - 3.7 billion $ - 1.963 billion $ - 53.1%
2002 - 67.9 million - 3.6 billion $ - 2.025 billion $ - 56.3%
2003 - 67.6 million - 3.9 billion $ - 2.128 billion $ - 54.6%
2004 - 73.0 million - 4.5 billion $ - 2.071 billion $ - 46.0%
2005 - 74.9 million - 5.0 billion $ - 2.183 billion $ - 43.7%
2006 - 76.0 million - 5.6 billion $ - 2.327 billion $ - 41.6%
2007 - 79.5 million - 6.1 billion $ - 2.479 billion $ - 40.6%
2008 - 78.6 million - 6.5 billion $ - 2.686 billion $ - 41.3%
2009 - 73.4 million - 6.6 billion $ - 2.655 billion $ - 40.2%
2010 - 73.0 million - 7.0 billion $ - 2.636 billion $ - 37.7%
2011 - 73.4 million - 7.0 billion $ - 2.786 billion $ - 39.8%
2012 - 74.9 million - 7.5 billion $ - 2.941 billion $ - 39.2%
2013 - 74.0 million - 8.0 billion $ est. - 3.101 billion $ - 38.8% est.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 17, 2013 1:34:07 GMT -5
mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131001&content_id=62282120&vkey=pr_mlb&c_id=mlbMLB Finishes 2013 With Sixth Best Attendance Total Ever; Last Decade Includes 10 Best-Attended Individual Seasons in MLB History Driven by a compelling second half and competitive balance throughout the game, Major League Baseball finished the 2013 regular season with an attendance of 74,026,895, the sixth highest total of all-time, it was announced today. With another strong showing in 2013, all 10 of the highest season totals in Major League Baseball history have come in the last decade. In 2,426 dates this season, MLB averaged 30,514 fans per game. MLB's 2013 total trails only the four-year span from 2005-2008 and last year's total of 74,859,268. The 2013 total was only 1.1 percent lower than 2012, despite the fact that this season featured the second-highest number of weather-related postponements (37) in the last nine years. By May of this year, the sport had compiled more rainouts in 2013 than in all of 2012, when there were 21. In late June, MLB's attendance was 4.5 percent off the pace of 2012. Among the highlights of the season: Eight Clubs surpassed the three-million mark, while 15 eclipsed the 2.5-million mark (up from 13 in 2012). The eight to reach three million have all now reached three million in consecutive seasons, including the New York Yankees (15 straight); the St. Louis Cardinals (10 straight); the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (10 straight); the Philadelphia Phillies (seven straight); the San Francisco Giants (four straight); and the Detroit Tigers, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Texas Rangers (all two straight). The San Francisco Giants ended the 2013 season with 246 consecutive sell-outs, dating back to October 1, 2010, for the longest active streak in the Majors. The Texas Rangers posted back-to-back seasons of at least three million for the first time in Club history; the past two seasons have been the most well-attended in franchise history. The Cincinnati Reds drew 2,492,059, establishing a new record at Great American Ball Park and surpassing the previous mark of 2,355,259 in the ballpark's inaugural season in 2003. In addition, it was the Club's highest overall attendance since 2000 and the second-highest since 1978. The Pittsburgh Pirates drew 2,256,862, marking the most since PNC Park's inaugural season in 2001 (2,436,139), and second-largest total in franchise history. The Baltimore Orioles drew 2,357,561, their highest attendance since 2005. The Toronto Blue Jays drew 2,536,562, their highest attendance since 1997. The Washington Nationals drew 2,652,422, their highest at Nationals Park and the most since their inaugural season in D.C. in 2005. The Los Angeles Dodgers led the Majors with 3,743,527, the first time they led the league since 2009. The New York Yankees led the American League with 3,279,589, marking the 11th straight season they have drawn the most among A.L. Clubs. The Kansas City Royals posted their second-highest attendance (1,750,754) since 1993. "After the challenges posed by poor weather early in the season, our game showed its resiliency with a terrific second half," Baseball Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig said. "I thank baseball fans for their incredible passion and loyalty this year and throughout the last decade, which has featured unparalleled support. As October begins with tonight's highly anticipated game in Pittsburgh, we are primed for a marvelous Postseason."
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Post by stone19uk on Oct 17, 2013 18:23:45 GMT -5
I'm cutting Simon, Ondrusek, and Paul. That's ~ 4.1 mill off the books. All those guys are replaceable with guys we have in the system. I like LeCure, Partch, and Robinson over those 3.
Take some of that 4.1 and spend it on a Lefty reliever.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 17, 2013 20:22:42 GMT -5
Ondrusek's contract is guaranteed. DRob can't replace Paul since he's not a usefull bat off the bench against righties. I highly doubt Partch can put up similar numbers to Simon.
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Post by stone19uk on Oct 17, 2013 22:31:10 GMT -5
Ondrusek's contract is guaranteed. DRob can't replace Paul since he's not a usefull bat off the bench against righties. I highly doubt Partch can put up similar numbers to Simon. Jesus why would we give that to Ondrusek? DRob don't have to replace Paul. Heisey will. I would love to bring in Sizemore ( if healthy) on a minor league deal. Simon was good but I like LeCure in that role. We can replace Simon with a Lefty for the pen. |
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Post by rocky15231 on Oct 21, 2013 12:27:58 GMT -5
IMO, Simon is more valuable not less. Of everyone in the pen NOT already with a back end role (Ondrusek, LeCure, Simon, etc...), he's got the most potential.
The only way I get rid of Paul/Heisey is if you can find one bat that can produce what the 2 do combined. That's possible, and it's where having a nice prospect or AAA player to fill in would be big because they could produce in a more cost-effective manner. Instead, our complete lack of guys in that role are forcing us to spend over 9M on a marginal, at best, bench.
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Post by kinsm on Oct 21, 2013 18:04:16 GMT -5
Matt Swartz of MLBTR has just released his arbitration projections for the Reds:
•Homer Bailey (5.017): $9.3MM (200K less than my projection)
•Mike Leake (4.000): $5.9MM (150K more than my projection)
•Aroldis Chapman (3.034): $4.6MM (150K less than my projection)
•Ryan Hanigan (5.077): $2.3MM (300K less than my projection)
•Chris Heisey (3.157): $1.7MM (150K less than my projection)
•Alfredo Simon (4.142): $1.6MM (150K less than my projection)
•Xavier Paul (3.119): $1MM (no difference in my projection)
•Sam LeCure (3.072): $1MM (450K less than my projection)
•Corky Miller (4.112): $700K (100K less than my projection)
Total: $28.1MM (1.35M less than my projections).
And like me, the only player he predicts is non-tendered is Corky Miller.
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