2013-14 Cincinnati Reds Arbitration Estimates

[kinsm]

Listed below I will place my projections for the Reds arbitration figures for this coming offseason based on what comparable players (i.e. same service time - similar production) received in one of the past 3 years via the process. As you'll note, some players have far more comparables than others.

SP Homer Bailey, SP Mike Leake, RP Aroldis Chapman, RP Alfredo Simon, RP Sam LeCure, C Ryan Hanigan, C Corky Miller, OF Chris Heisey, and OF Xavier Paul are all eligible for arbitration.

Anyone keeping track of payroll can utilize these figures to predict how much money the Reds will have for Free Agency.

One or more of these players may be non-tendered, in addition one or more may be forced into the trade picture due to their upcoming salaries.

Most of my estimates are based more so on career numbers relative to what that player may have done this past season (though I tried to weigh both).

Key:

Awarded Salary entering arbitration year, Player Name, Career GS or SV, IP, W, L, WHIP, ERA, H, BB, and K
Awarded Salary entering arbitration year, Player Name, Career Games, PA's, HR's, K's, BB's, SB, BA, OBP, SLG



For anyone who is interested:

Last year I projected arbitration awards of ( redlegsbaseball.proboards.com/thread/11798/offseason-primer-reds-arbitration-estimates ); 5.15M$ to Bailey, 4.25M$ to Latos, 2.75M$ to Leake, 1.65M$ to Bray, 1.20M$ to Simon, 1.00M$ to Ondrusek, 2.75M$ to Stubbs, 1.25M$ to Heisey, 1.0M$ to Valdez.

And ultimately their awards were; 5.35M$ to Bailey, 4.25M$ to Latos, 3.06M$ to Leake, nontender to Bray, .89M$ to Simon, .95M$ to Ondrusek, 2.825M$ to Stubbs, 1.325M$ to Heisey, nontender to Valdez.



*And if you haven't caught on yet, this was my primary duty during 2 off-seasons while working for the Pirates.

[kinsm]

First up I'll predict Homer Bailey's arbitration award:

H. Bailey, 143, 853, 49, 45, 1.32, 4.25, 849, 276, 705

Past 3 Off-Seasons 5+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

8.50M$ J. Vargas, 130, 830, 42, 50, 1.31, 4.35, 829, 255, 530
10.25M$ M. Garza, 167, 1027, 57, 61, 1.29, 3.84, 974, 351, 865
6.75M$ J. Hammel, 135, 850, 42, 51, 1.44, 4.78, 927, 295, 621
8.20M$ J. Guthrie, 154, 1020, 47, 65, 1.29, 4.19, 1013, 304, 626
7.73M$ S. Marcum, 128, 793, 50, 32, 1.22, 3.77, 724, 241, 637
8.00M$ A. Sanchez, 113, 673, 39, 38, 1.37, 3.72, 650, 272, 566
9.125M$ W. Rodriguez, 167, 985, 62, 64, 1.35, 4.18, 979, 353, 838

---His 7 comps received salaries between 6.75M$ and 10.25M$.

Keeping in mind no comp is exact, utilizing all of them I'm estimating that Bailey is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 9.50M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 11M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of 8M$.

[kinsm]

Second up I'll predict Mike Leake's arbitration award:

M. Leake, 109, 677, 42, 29, 1.31, 3.99, 711, 176, 447

Past 3 Off-Seasons 4+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

5.675M$ J. Masterson, 121, 820, 39, 53, 1.39, 4.17, 816, 326, 644
6.725M$ M. Scherzer, 133, 804, 52, 42, 1.30, 3.88, 774, 270, 829
5.24M$ C. Richard, 118, 720, 44, 42, 1.38, 4.13, 753, 242, 456
5.35M$ H. Bailey, 111, 644, 38, 33, 1.38, 4.50, 668, 222, 506
5.675M$ M. Pelfrey, 146, 877, 50, 54, 1.46, 4.40, 965, 314, 493
4.85M$ J. Vargas, 97, 612, 28, 39, 1.35, 4.53, 628, 200, 389
5.5M$ J. Jurrjens, 115, 702, 50, 33, 1.28, 3.40, 660, 242, 480
5.0M$ J. Lannan, 128, 751, 38, 51, 1.42, 4.00, 787, 282, 393
6.0M$ R. Nolasco, 115, 716, 54, 39, 1.26, 4.45, 732, 169, 638
5.75M$ J. Guthrie, 122, 812, 38, 48, 1.28, 4.15, 800, 238, 496
6.275M$ C. Billingsley, 131, 825, 59, 41, 1.35, 3.55, 760, 357, 751
4.3M$ F. Liriano, 89, 549, 38, 32, 1.29, 3.97, 513, 194, 567
4.8M$ J. Sanchez, 99, 606, 34, 39, 1.38, 4.26, 527, 310, 634
5.5M$ J. Saunders, 128, 774, 57, 39, 1.39, 4.29, 831, 248, 442
6.0M$ J. Danks, 123, 747, 46, 44, 1.30, 3.96, 715, 254, 579

---His 15 comps received salaries between 4.3M$ and 6.725M$.

Keeping in mind no comp is exact, utilizing all of them I'm estimating that Leake is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 5.75M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 6.5M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of 5M$. The most glaring comp is Bailey's from last year with the same service time Leake's numbers are slightly better.

[kinsm]

Next up I'll predict Chris Heisey's arbitration award:

C. Heisey, 1153, 42, 267, 62, 16, .254, .308, .433

Past 3 Off-Seasons 3+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

2.675M$ W. Venable, 1774, 45, 424, 155, 86, .253, .324, .415
2.95M$ R. Roberts, 1497, 41, 274, 152, 35, .245, .324, .393
1.212M$ R. Bernadina, 1150, 23, 231, 95, 53, .252, .320, .373
2.35M$ G. Parra, 1807, 23, 324, 124, 36, .280, .332, .400
2.075M$ A. de Aza, 973, 13, 189, 76, 42, .280, .344, .410
1.0M$ S. Rodriguez, 1372, 28, 321, 103, 32, .225, .301, .356
2.45M$ M. Joyce, 1559, 61, 335, 178, 20, .254, .344, .466
1.75M$ C. Pennington, 1954, 24, 354, 159, 69, .249, .313, .356
1.75M$ G. Sanchez, 1661, 47, 259, 158, 9, .259, .333, .420
2.3M$ B. Boesch, 1487, 42, 286, 101, 18, .259, .315, .414
1.3M$ N. Schierholtz, 1120, 18, 184, 62, 17, .273, .318, .409
2.415M$ S. Smith, 1449, 51, 251, 142, 17, .275, .348, .485
2.237M$ I. Stewart, 1418, 54, 396, 146, 16, .236, .323, .428
2.538M$ C. McGehee, 1689, 52, 281, 129, 1, .265, .320, .426
2.100M$ A. Torres, 1025, 23, 230, 89, 41, .252, .320, .431
2.400M$ D. Murphy, 1557, 47, 271, 136, 30, .282, .342, .460
1.400M$ A. Gordon, 1642, 45, 362, 162, 29, .244, .328, .405

---His 17 comps received salaries between 1.0M$ and 2.95M$.

Keeping in mind no comp is exact, utilizing all of them I'm estimating that Heisey is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 1.85M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 2.35M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of 1.35M$. Last year Heisey benefited from being a Super 2 player, this year that previous status may ultimately make him a non-tender candidate. His best comp of the group is likely Nate Schierholtz who was in fact non-tendered last year before signing with the Cubs for 2.25M$.

[kinsm]

Next up I'll predict Xavier Paul's arbitration award:

X. Paul 746, 12, 161, 59, 23, .254, .316, .376

Past 3 Off-Seasons 3+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

1.33M$ C. Heisey, 909, 33, 216, 53, 13, .259, .315, .438
.85M$ K. Frandsen, 836, 9, 70, 45, 6, .267, .322, .364
1.212M$ R. Bernadina, 1150, 23, 231, 95, 53, .252, .320, .373
1.0M$ S. Rodriguez, 1372, 28, 321, 103, 32, .225, .301, .356
.70M$ A. Rosales, 754, 15, 152, 61, 4, .226, .293, .337
.925M$ J. Arias, 619, 5, 82, 25, 10, .273, .308, .377
.605M$ K. Blanks, 488, 20, 154, 50, 4, .219, .316, .421
1.0M$ N. Reimold, 916, 36, 174, 89, 16, .261, .338, .455
.90M$ J. Herrera, 894, 7, 125, 73, 11, .259, .323, .324
1.35M$ G. Blanco, 1289, 7, 262, 158, 52, .253, .349, .331
.93M$ L. Valbuena, 1109, 17, 219, 95, 4, .224, .292, .343
.725M$ S. Fuld, 608, 4, 81, 63, 29, .246, .328, .350
.93M$ W. Valdez, 1032, 6, 137, 61, .243, .290, .330
1.3M$ R. Andino, 951, 11, 182, 69, 19, .245, .302, .331
1.2M$ M. Aviles, 1325, 26, 177, 55, 37, .288, .318, .419
1.3M$ N. Schierholtz, 1120, 18, 184, 62, 17, .273, .318, .409
.865M$ M. Maier, 1043, 8, 198, 104, 13, .253, .332, .346
1.135M$ J. Hannahan, 1347, 24, 322, 145, 6, .231, .317, .358
1.1M$ D. Barton, 1470, 26, 284, 250, 12, .252, .362, .378
1.1M$ B. DeWitt, 1213, 21, 192, 107, 7, .260, .329, .385
.90M$ D. Kelly, 626, 16, 87, 29, 6, .240, .285, .363
1.50M$ M. Morse, 685, 21, 145, 48, 4, .291, .353, .456
.985M$ F. Pie, 876, 17, 182, 58, 17, .255, .305, .394
1.40M$ R. Sweeney, 1382, 13, 187, 106, 16, .286, .341, .386
1.0M$ W. Betemit, 1590, 55, 401, 149, 5, .266, .334, .447
1.0M$ D. Johnson, 1429, 51, 208, 190, 1, .243, .343, .419
1.05M$ M. Fontenot, 1229, 22, 218, 108, 12, .270, .337, .411
1.175M$ J. Baker, 1065, 30, 254, 79, 8, .270, .326, .446
1.175M$ B. Francisco, 1221, 39, 223, 95, 26, .263, .329, .446
.8M$ C. Denorfia, 554, 12, 97, 50, 12, .274, .344, .411

---His 30 comps received salaries between .605M$ and 1.5M$.

Keeping in mind no comp is exact, utilizing all of them I'm estimating that Paul is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 1.0M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 1.25M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of .75M$.

[kinsm]

Next up I'll predict Ryan Hanigan's arbitration award:

R. Hanigan, 1580, 20, 159, 189, 0, .262, .359, .343

Past 3 Off-Seasons 5+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

4.5M$ J. Saltalamacchia, 1733, 64, 509, 140, 1, .239, .302, .418
2.75M$ G. Soto, 2261, 82, 500, 254, 2, .248, .336, .437
5.9M$ M. Montero, 1822, 58, 333, 154, 2, .271, .338, .451

---His 3 comps received salaries between 2.75M$ and 5.9M$.

There simply aren't very many catchers reaching arbitration with 5 years of service time, therefor the comps are few and far between. Add to that the injuries this year and this will be a very rough guesstimate. I'm estimating that Hanigan is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 2.6M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 3.2M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of 2.0M$.

[kinsm]

Next up I'll predict Corky Miller's arbitration award:

C. Miller, 616, 11, 123, 49, 1, .193, .277, .306

Past 3 Off-Seasons 4+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

.93M$ J. Baker, 974, 14, 199, 102, 2, .263, .346, .374
.815M$ J. Flores, 718, 17, 179, 45, 0, .253, .305, .394
.875M$ B. Pena, 728, 12, 86, 40, 2, .251, .293, .359
.85M$ K. Hill, 774, 6, 204, 60, 2, .215, .276, .302

---His 4 comps received salaries between .815M$ and .93M$.

For the record, I don't believe Miller will ever get the chance to exchange figures. I think he'll be non-tendered, if not outrighted before the deadline to tender contracts. But theoretically, if he were kept on the roster, I predict that Miller is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of .8M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 1.0M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of .6M$.

[kinsm]

Next up I'll predict Aroldis Chapman's arbitration award:

A. Chapman, 77, 198, 15, 13, 1.02, 2.40, 105, 98, 324

Past 3 Off-Seasons 3+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

4.0M$ - T. Clippard, 33, 349, 24, 18, 1.15, 3.11, 249, 152, 393,
5.0M$ - J. Axford, 106, 208, 15, 12, 1.27, 3.06, 167, 97, 264
4.5M$ - C. Perez, 68, 221, 10, 14, 1.19, 3.13, 161, 103, 210
3.9M$ - A. Bailey, 75, 174, 7, 10, 0.95, 2.07, 117, 49, 174


---His 4 comps received salaries between 3.9M$ and 5.0M$.

Keeping in mind no comp is exact, utilizing all of them I'm estimating that Chapman is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 4.75M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 6M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of 4M$. Chapman's team will no doubt be looking to crack Axford's award from last year, Axford was a Super 2 player with one more year of closing under his belt.

Adding in all of his bonus money and Chapman is getting quite expensive.

[kinsm]

Next up I'll predict Alfredo Simon's arbitration award:

A. Simon, 19, 333, 17, 18, 1.36, 4.11, 339, 114, 246

Past 3 Off-Seasons 4+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

1.550M$ - B. Badenhop, 2, 313, 16, 17, 1.34, 4.08, 316, 102, 232
1.35M$ - J. Thatcher, 1, 168, 5, 10, 1.30, 3.37, 153, 65, 181
1.488M$ - F. Morales, 11, 256, 11, 16, 1.40, 4.36, 232, 127, 221
2.50M$ - K. McClellan, 6, 359, 19, 22, 1.29, 3.61, 336, 126, 246
1.550M$ - G. Perkins, 2, 365, 23, 16, 1.41, 4.41, 413, 100, 224
1.417M$ - B. Bray, 3, 188, 13, 12, 1.34, 3.67, 179, 74, 181
1.675M$ - J. Chamberlain, 4, 382, 20, 13, 1.34, 3.70, 360, 150, 386
2.49M$ - E. O’Flaherty, 0, 244, 14, 9, 1.29, 3.14, 227, 87, 188
1.795M$ - C. Breslow, 6, 279, 12, 17, 1.25, 3.06, 231, 117, 235
1.75M$ - J. Smith, 0, 248, 14, 10, 1.29, 3.15, 211, 110, 204
1.625M$ - E. Mujica, 2, 309, 17, 15, 1.18, 4.10, 314, 51, 257
2.0M$ - J. Veras, 4, 247, 14, 13, 1.32, 4.11, 194, 132, 249
2.175M$ - K. Loe, 2, 474, 26, 35, 1.42, 4.33, 517, 154, 287
1.875M$ - B. Logan 1, 209, 12, 8, 1.56, 4.77, 235, 91, 186
2.2M$ - S. Casilla, 12, 267, 15, 8, 1.41, 3.80, 246, 131, 239
2.005M$ - R. Perez, 3, 321, 20, 12, 1.33, 3.64, 315, 113, 264
2.535M$ - M. Adams, 1, 237, 8, 8, 1.07, 2.31, 177, 76, 246
1.415M$ - C. Villanueva, 6, 425, 20, 24, 1.31, 4.34, 406, 151, 381
2.0M$ - P. Moylan, 3, 247, 17, 8, 1.27, 2.58, 206, 109, 195
1.55M$ - R. Tejada, 0, 434, 23, 26, 1.45, 4.39, 385, 243, 369
1.65M$ - R. Ramirez, 4, 295, 17, 14, 1.26, 3.29, 249, 123, 244
2.25M$ - B. League, 8, 281, 16, 17, 1.30, 3.90, 265, 100, 210
1.2M$ - M. Lowe, 4, 178, 5, 15, 1.47, 4.09, 181, 81, 159

---His 23 comps received salaries between 1.2M$ and 2.5M$.

Keeping in mind no comp is exact, utilizing all of them I'm estimating that Simon is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 1.75M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 2.25M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of 1.25M$.

[kinsm]

Next up I'll predict Sam LeCure's arbitration award:

S. LeCure, 0, 244, 9, 10, 1.21, 3.47, 203, 93, 237

Past 3 Off-Seasons 3+ years service time Arbitration Comps:

.89M$ - A. Simon, 18, 245, 11, 14, 1.46, 4.55, 271, 88, 183
1.275M$ - T. Sipp, 2, 220, 11, 7, 1.26, 3.68, 167, 111, 225
1.7M$ - B. Parnell, 14, 256, 13, 19, 1.46, 3.83, 270, 103, 235
.935M$ - S. Kelley, 0, 128, 10, 9, 1.25, 3.52, 121, 39, 122
1.475M$ - M. Boggs, 0, 293, 13, 12, 1.42, 3.80, 291, 124, 217
1.025M$ - W. Wright, 2, 197, 10, 11, 1.42, 4.55, 186, 94, 198
1.1M$ - J. Blevins, 2, 207, 8, 6, 1.26, 3.35, 182, 78, 187
1.76M$ - W. Lopez, 11, 223, 13, 11, 1.21, 3.14, 231, 39, 169
1.1M$ - M. Rzepczynski, 0, 233, 9, 17, 1.38, 4.04, 219, 103, 211
1.625M$ - J. Venters, 6, 229, 15, 10, 1.24, 2.23, 175, 110, 258
1.181M$ - K. Jepsen, 3, 179, 12, 13, 1.44, 4.31, 185, 73, 160
1.45M$ - R. Belisario, 3, 197,15, 5, 1.16, 3.06, 151, 77, 171
1.795M$ - B. Ziegler, 19, 252, 11, 13, 1.32, 2.43, 236, 97, 169
1.075M$ - B. Badenhop, 2, 250, 13, 15, 1.37, 4.34, 253, 90, 190
1.35M$ - D. O’Day, 2, 180, 8, 5, 1.10, 2.89, 150, 49, 148
1.575M$ - S. Romo, 3, 178, 16, 7, 0.89, 2.33, 121, 38, 214
1.6M$ - D. Robertson, 3, 202, 14, 6, 1.34, 3.03, 164, 106, 270
1.1M$ - P. Coke, 5, 248, 15, 17, 1.31, 4.06, 237, 88, 185
1.95M$ - J. Motte, 12, 188, 13, 8, 1.13, 2.92, 152, 60, 187
1.55M$ - L. Gregerson, 3, 209, 9, 14, 1.12, 3.10, 166, 68, 216
1.65M$ - T. Clippard, 1, 277, 22, 12, 1.14, 2.96, 194, 123, 309
1.613M$ - D. Bard, 5, 197, 5, 13, 1.06, 2.88, 132, 76, 213
1.33M$ - R. Perez, 3, 258, 15, 10, 1.36, 3.80, 256, 94, 231
1.3M$ - S. Casilla, 6, 216, 13, 6, 1.48, 4.30, 213, 106, 194
1.2M$ - B. Logan, 1, 167, 7, 5, 1.61, 5.10, 192, 78, 140
.8M$ - E. Mujica, 2, 233, 8, 9, 1.23, 4.47, 250, 37, 194
1.4M$ - C. Breslow, 6, 219, 12, 15, 1.18, 2.87, 162, 96, 191
.895M$ - E. O’Flaherty, 0, 170, 12, 15, 1.37, 4.07, 168, 66, 121
1.375M$ - K. McClellan, 6, 217, 7, 15, 1.27, 3.23, 193, 83, 170
1.215M$ - D. O’Day, 2, 164, 8, 4, 1.08, 2.63, 133, 44, 130
1.25M$ - B. Ziegler, 18, 193, 8, 11, 1.35, 2.51, 183, 78, 125
1.2M$ - M. Lowe, 4, 178, 5, 15, 1.47, 4.09, 181, 81, 159


---His 32 comps received salaries between .8M$ and 1.95M$.

Keeping in mind no comp is exact, utilizing all of them I'm estimating that LeCure is awarded a contract in the neighborhood of 1.45M$, while his agent probably asks for something upwards of 1.85M$ and the Reds probably offer something in the neighborhood of 1.05M$.

[kinsm]

Matt Swartz of MLBTR has just released his arbitration projections for the Reds:

•Homer Bailey (5.017): $9.3MM (200K less than my projection)
•Mike Leake (4.000): $5.9MM (150K more than my projection)
•Aroldis Chapman (3.034): $4.6MM (150K less than my projection)
•Ryan Hanigan (5.077): $2.3MM (300K less than my projection)
•Chris Heisey (3.157): $1.7MM (150K less than my projection)
•Alfredo Simon (4.142): $1.6MM (150K less than my projection)
•Xavier Paul (3.119): $1MM (no difference in my projection)
•Sam LeCure (3.072): $1MM (450K less than my projection)
•Corky Miller (4.112): $700K (100K less than my projection)


A total net difference for the Reds 9 Arbitration eligible players of 1.35M less than my projections.

[curbinman]

I think Heisey and Paul will be non tendered by the reds.I think both guys have played their last game with the reds.