**2011 Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Mock**

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sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Fantasy-Baseball-2011-Mock-Draft-Round-1?urn=fantasy-305495

Fantasy Baseball 2011 Mock Draft, Round 1

By Yahoo! Sports Staff

As promised, the Yahoo! fantasy team will be mocking all week, offering a preview of your 2011 baseball draft. We'll get through at least one round per day, possibly more. Please use this mock responsibly. Comment early and often…

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins – OK, before you launch into a pro-Pujols lecture in comments, try to understand the logic behind this pick: In a 12-team mixed league, absolutely every roster will feature an outstanding first baseman, guaranteed. In fact, first base is the deepest position in any fantasy game. Pujols is sensational, but the first basemen who rank 10-15 are awfully good, too (as are 16-20). At shortstop, the guys who rank 10-15 are clear liabilities in multiple stats. Hanley is an elite asset entering his age-27 season, and he already has a 30/30 campaign and a batting title on the resumé. –Andy Behrens

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals – No, Pujols can't slip too far. Ridiculously enough, the average season from this guy has yielded 119 runs scored, 41 homers, 123 RBIs, eight steals, and a .331/.426/.624 batting line. Again: Those are merely his typical stats over his 10-year career. No doubt his position is an easy fill, but he rarely finishes outside the top-five in the year-end ranks. His floor is 100-35-100-.310, and his ceiling is Triple Crown. –Behrens

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers – Six of his first seven full seasons have been of the 30 home run variety, and he's never had less than 103 RBI during that time, making this a no-brainer. Miggy posted career bests in walk (13.7%) and strikeout (17.3%) rates in '10, showing he's still got room to grow, which seems silly since he's already been so good for so long. Adding V-Mart to the mix only increases his value, and I have no problem depositing .320/40/125 in the bank. –Rob Steingall

4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies – Teammate CarGo may post slightly better numbers (and I strongly considered him), but position scarcity wins out here. The Coors Field effect is a beautiful thing, with a .300/35/110 line certainly attainable, provided Tulo avoids injury. He's no slouch on the bases either (20 steals in '09, 11 steals in '10), making this honey pot even sweeter. The sky is the limit as he enters his prime — and I'm going along for the ride. –Steingall

5. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies – Naysayers strongly emphasize to never pay for a career year, but the axiom simply doesn’t apply to CarGo. Yes, his sub-80 contact percentage suggests his .336 BA from ’10 is unrepeatable, but, even if his totals sag slightly, last year’s No. 1 commodity in Y! leagues will be one of virtual baseball’s most reliable multi-cat bats. An uptick in power is also possible. Keep in mind he’s still just 25. –Brad Evans

6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds – During last year’s breakout campaign, the Canadian Soprano knocked off one fastball after another, en route to the fourth-most valuable statistical contribution of the fantasy season. Because he would have difficulty outracing an octogenarian on a Rascal, his chances of stealing 16 bases again are very slim. However, considering his prime age (27), friendly surroundings and strong baseline profile, another HR growth spurt isn’t out of the question. Reduce groundballs (1.30 GB/FB in ’10) and he flirts with 50 bombs. In numbers speak he’s the Miguel Cabrera of the NL. –Evans

7. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays – I think we’ve already started to take Longoria for granted. To post an average line of .283/27/101/88/10 over the first three years of a career, all before the age of 25, is nothing short of remarkable. He plays a premium position and has only started to reach the early stages of his prime. At pick No. 7, you could live with the numbers he produced last season. But he’s got three years left on a ridiculously sub-market value contract and he needs to seriously pad his numbers in the next three years if he wants to make up for some of the money he lost when it’s time to sign a new deal. If he doesn’t get his home run total back over the 30 mark, I’ll be very surprised. –Brandon Funston

8. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees – I go back and forth between Chase Utley(notes) and Cano at the No. 8 spot, but this time I went with Cano. He’s not the injury risk that Utley is, he’s right in the heart of his prime, and in the heart of one of the best offenses in the league. If Utley does manage 150-plus games this season, I lose out on the 15-20 SBs. But I certainly won’t lose out on the hitting numbers. Cano has established himself as a solid .300/30/100/100 candidate. –Funston

9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox – For years we've all imagined what Gonzalez might do if released from the jaws of Petco Park. In 2011, those dreams become reality. Gonzalez was a .315/.402/.578 stick on the road last year and he posted a 1.045 OPS away from Petco in 2009. Now he gets to play half of his games at Fenway Park, surrounded by an outstanding group of run-producers; crooked numbers are on the way. Gonzalez is in the prime of his career (he turns 29 in May) and he's got excellent power to all fields; drop a quarter into the slot and let's play some pinball. –Scott Pianowski

10. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers – I don't like filling up on outfielders early in a 2011 mock — the outfield is a deep area while the infield isn't — but the appealing floor of Braun ultimately wins me over. Braun played through nagging elbow and wrist problems last year and nonetheless produced in all five roto-relevant categories; it says a lot about a player when you can look at a .304/.366/.501 line and consider it an off-year. If Braun stays healthy in his age 27 season we could see an MVP run. The downside? We get similar stats to what he posted in 2010. Braun might be the No. 1 outfielder on my board when the real draft season begins.–Pianowski

11. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets – Very tough player to project. But he's a 25-15 guy, you have to figure, with upside from there. Given that he had 29 homers in '10 and 27 steals in '09, 30/30 is somewhere in that void between possible and probable. The K-rate was alarming last year, but the isolated slugging was back to career norms. And .300 is a good bet considering his career mark is .305. Oddly, third base is a position-scarcity pick. –Michael Salfino

12. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies – This is a solid value. Utley is reasonable here for his offensive production regardless of where he plays on the diamond, so the fact that he mans the keystone is a huge boost. The thumb injury sapped his power, but he's at his power peak, age-wise, and should again knock 30-or-so homers — especially given park factors. He's such an efficient base stealer and smart player that 20 steals are a reasonable projection. It's only a matter of will, not skill. And the key with Utley on the bases is that you do not need much more than 20 attempts. –Salfino

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Round 2

13. Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox – A dangerous pick because we can't be sure how much he wants to run, though how much the Red Sox want to run is more important. Terry Francona was next to last in stolen base attempts in 2010 but was fifth in 2009 when the runners were healthy. This should be good for 40-to-50 bags. Crawford should see a Fenway spike in batting average, as most hitters do. There's probably a 40% chance he hits .320 and a minimum of .300 is likely. And 15 homers now are more the floor with a 20-plus season somewhere on the horizon. (This roster so far: C. Utley, C. Crawford). –Salfino

14. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees – It was a terrible year mostly driven by career-worst BABIP (.268 vs. .303 career). The sample is too large with Teixeira to fret over one season, an arbitrary slice of time despite the weight we grant it. For Teixeira, .300-40-120 is still a reasonable projection. He's not really a 40-homer hitter, but if he hits 24 at Yankee Stadium like in 2009, he'll get there or close enough. (D. Wright, M. Teixeira) –Salfino

15. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees – His stats have fallen in each of the last three years, a worrisome trend for someone in their mid-30s, but Rodriguez still has the womb of the New York lineup to fall back on, and let's keep in mind that careers don't always regress in a linear fashion. Even if Rodriguez ultimately lands in the .280-74-30-125-4 neighborhood that he rented from last year — and remember, that was considered a disappointing haul for him — I'm only overpaying by maybe a round. I could get much better Round 2 numbers if I went to the outfield with this selection, but with Braun already rostered here, taking an infielder is just about a mandate. (R. Braun, A. Rodriguez) –Pianowski

16. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers – He's only given us one full season out of four and most of the MVP's production came at home (where he was a .390/.438/.750 overlord), so it's not a slam-dunk to make the call on Hamilton here. But then I close my eyes and imagine the keg-tappers they play all summer long in Arlington and I decide, screw it, I want in on that. And while it's more realistic to pay for 130 Hamilton games than a full 162, at least I can feel good about the replacement value of an outfielder — while Hamilton spends his expected month or so on the sidelines, I should have little trouble finding a capable replacement on the waiver wire. I came close to taking a starting pitcher in this slot, but I suspect the arm I likely select in Round 3 won't be much of a drop from the whomever I would have tabbed now. (A. Gonzalez, J. Hamilton) –Pianowski

17. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies – Before last season, Howard had run off four straight campaigns with at least 40 home runs and 136 RBIs. Simply put, he’s top shelf power. And don’t let the numbers dip in 2010 throw you off. An ankle injury pretty much wiped out his month of August, which came at a time when he was absolutely dialed in – he slugged .570 in both July and September. Philly was the No. 2 scoring offense in the NL last season and, assuming good health and a rebound or two from Chase Utley(notes) and Jimmy Rollins(notes), another 40/130 season is still within Howard’s reach. (R. Cano, R. Howard) –Funston

18. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – If ever there was a sub-.250 batting average worth dismissing it’s Kemp’s .249 mark from last season. Consider that it (.249 clip) came in his age 26 season, and that he’d hit better than .300 in more than 1,500 at bats entering 2010. Also consider that his .295 BABIP marked the first time in his career that he finished a season below .330. Then there was the continual tinkering of manager Joe Torre, who used Kemp for 80-plus at bats at four different spots in the batting order. But despite everything, Kemp still finished just a hair shy of the 30/20 club. Bill James has him pegged for .280/27/24 in ’11. Plug that into a consistent spot at clean-up and you can expect ample run production to go with. (E. Longoria, M. Kemp) –Funston

19. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals – For the second time in three years, nagging injuries cost Zim several games, limiting him under 550 at-bats. Despite the setbacks, he sustained steady production across four categories, ranking fifth at his position in per game value. With an improving eye, outstanding pedigree and entrenched in a run-driving spot in the Nats' lineup, the 26-year-old appears to be on the precipice of a career year. Think 2009 with slightly more RBIs. (J. Votto, R. Zimmerman) –Evans

20. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers – Years divisible by two haven't been kind to the Brewers' club of chub. Last season, his dramatic drop-off in several categories was alarming. However, his baseline skills remained intact. In fact, some growth occurred. His eye improved for the third-straight season and he posted a career best in outside contact percentage. Still only 26, Fielder should rebound in a major way. (C. Gonzalez, P. Fielder) –Evans

21. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals – I’m not trying to put together the Rockies team that made a run at the World Series in ’07, I promise. Not many options safer than Holliday, who is a true .300 hitter and regular 100 RBI man. There are plenty of good outfielders still available, but many have fleas, so I’m content going with the un-sexy, low-risk pick. Other options here were Dustin Pedroia(notes) and Kevin Youkilis(notes), due to position scarcity. (T. Tulowitzki, M. Holliday) –Steingall

22. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets – Enough about the injuries, he still accumulated 603 plate appearances last season and provided his usual consistent production (.282/11/54). While the steals were down (30 in ’10), I’ll bet on a return to the 40-plus range (still elite). He’ll be batting lead-off, so book 100 runs, too. It’s getting a bit thin at shortstop, so the time to act was now. (M. Cabrera, J. Reyes) –Steingall

23. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies – As if there weren't enough reasons to pick Halladay here, this is also an integrity-of-the-mock selection. In most drafts, he'll be a first-rounder. Halladay gives you 235-250 innings of brilliant ratios, and the man has delivered 200-plus Ks in three straight seasons. We're conditioned to believe that pitchers present unusual fantasy risk, but basically all the first and second-tier starters were solid investments last season. Doc was simply a machine. (A. Pujols, R. Halladay) –Behrens

24. Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Boston Red Sox – Even in an injury-shortened 102-game season, Youks managed to score 77 runs, hit 19 homers, and drive in 62. One of the keys to his fantasy value, of course, is that he'll quickly reacquire eligibility at third base. Over the past three years, he's averaged 25 home runs while hitting .308. Youks is a solid four-category asset at a talent-scarce roster spot; let's just hope he manages to play a few more games this season. (H. Ramirez, K. Youkilis) –Behrens

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Round 3

25. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers - At this point in Kinsler's career, you basically have to expect a DL visit or two each season. I'll concede the point. He's never appeared in more than 144 games, and he played only 103 last year. But let's not forget that Kinsler was also the consensus No. 2 second baseman in 2010, and he's just one season removed from a 30/30 campaign. He's an elite power/speed threat who hits in a friendly park, in an outstanding lineup. Kinsler is a high-maintenance fantasy asset for sure, but the stat potential justifies the investment.

In a 12-team draft, the toughest positions to fill are shortstop, third base and second base; this mock team has acquired high-end talent at each of those spots. (Here's the roster so far: H. Ramirez, K. Youkilis, I. Kinsler). -Behrens

26. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox - Pedroia actually ranks third at his position on most preseason fantasy cheat sheets, but I'm giving a slight edge to Kinsler due to his HR/SB history. In any case, these two are very close in terms of projected value. Pedroia is a career .305 hitter who's already given us a pair of 15/20 seasons, and he piles up runs like few players can. Boston's lineup is obviously loaded, helping his cause. There's no reason to think last year's foot injury will be any kind of issue when spring training rolls around — Pedroia is reportedly ready to go right now. (A. Pujols, R. Halladay, D. Pedroia). -Behrens

27. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners - Behrens threw a wrench in my strategy by drafting both Pedroia and Kinsler, thus forcing me to change directions. I normally don't like to draft pitchers this early, but couldn't pass up one of the dominant workhorses in the game. He's seen a four-year upward trend in his K/9 (8.36 in '10), and three-year drop in BB/9 (2.52 in '10). His fastball velocity is elite (94.1 MPH). He's a dominating force in leagues with an innings cap, as he'll provide you with tremendous ratios as well as massive strikeout numbers. (M. Cabrera, J. Reyes, F. Hernandez). -Steingall

28. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants - A dip in velocity is concerning, as was his ugly August (7.82 ERA). But domination in September (1.94 ERA) and the playoffs (4-1, 2.43 ERA) eased doubts and keeps him firmly among the top-tier of starters. He's capable of posting another 250-strikeout season. Would have liked to snag a middle infield complement to Tulo here, and also considered Nelson Cruz(notes) (health scared me off), knowing it would diminish Evans' mock happiness. (T. Tulowitzki, M. Holliday, T. Lincecum). -Steingall

29. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland Indians - The unheralded outfielder is one of fantasy’s most dependable consistency kings. Last season, he was only one of seven 20/20 players. Out of that group, only Choo, along with Hanley Ramirez(notes) and Carlos Gonzalez(notes), batted at least .300 with 90 or more RBIs — quite impressive. Though his power numbers may improve only slightly, the Korean import is unmistakably reliable month-in and month-out. (C. Gonzalez, P. Fielder, S. Choo). -Evans

30. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers - It’s true: "Unchained Melody" plays in the Noise’s head whenever Cruz's name is mentioned. My affection for the Caribbean Cruz is unparalleled. Regardless of how "early" the Y! audience views this pick, it’s a smart one. On a per-game basis, Cruz was the 10th-best hitter in Fantasyland a season ago. If hamstring injuries didn’t cost him significant playing time, he would’ve likely finished in range of .300-35-110-85-25. Now that he’s fully healed, expect a career year. (J. Votto, R. Zimmerman, N. Cruz). -Evans

31. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks - Upton continues a theme with this squad of players that have already established a high ceiling, well in advance of their prime. In Upton’s age-21/22 season, he put together a .300/26/20 line in 138 games. He fell short of those numbers last year, while missing most of the final month of the season with a sore shoulder that did not require surgery. Health has been the rub, as he’s missed a good chunk of each of the last three seasons with injury. But given his physical gifts, which compare with anyone in the league, and the nice amount of seasoning under his belt (1,517 ABs), it’s easy to pay a premium price for the opportunity at something really special. (E. Longoria, M. Kemp, J. Upton). -Funston

32. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves - Heyward was billed as a generational talent coming up through the minors, and he did nothing but confirm those opinions in his rookie season. He finished 2010 with a better OPS (.849) than veterans Alex Rodriguez(notes) and Mark Teixeira(notes), and he was only 20 years old for the majority of the season. He also showed plate discipline that belied his years, drawing 91 walks, only nine short of the NL rookie record. Heyward has a future of .300/30/100/100/10 lines, and given that he took to MLB pitching so well in his first go-round, it’s not unfathomable to think those pretty lines could start flowing in 2011. (R. Cano, R. Howard, J. Heyward). -Funston

33. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds - I need to focus on some infield fills and the middle specifically, and with that, let's sign up Phillips. He's established himself as a reliable four-category man and he'll probably be neutral in average, and last year's very-acceptable line (.275-100-18-59-16) would have been even better if not for a wrist injury in the final quarter. Phillips wasn't a plus option on the bases last year (16-for-28) but I'm writing that off as a fluke - he's over 72 percent for his career. And even if Phillips doesn't rebound there, it's not likely that Dusty Baker will get in his way. (A. Gonzalez, J. Hamilton, B. Phillips). -Pianowski

34. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies - Real-world criticism of Rollins is all over the interwebs — he's probably been one of the more overrated players in the NL for a few seasons — but I don't care about that stuff, I'm just in it for the numbers. The batting average has been messy the last two seasons, but there production is fine in the other categories and there aren't a lot of shortstops worth considering in the first quarter of a draft. The Phillies lineup isn't exactly the 1927 Yankees but it's still a deep one, and Rollins also gets a boost from his home park (he's a .292/.350/.482 man at home, with 371 runs and 252 RBIs over 505 games). Rollins has turned into a go-ugly pick at this stage of his career, and that's fine with me. (R. Braun, A. Rodriguez, J. Rollins). -Pianowski

35. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers - Yes, there are health risks. But there's also a chance that last year was not his ceiling: He could add more steals to the power mix. His batting average easily could be a problem, given his .332 BABIP in '10. But if he posts 25/20 in HR/SB, who cares? Later in the draft, I'm going to have to protect against the possibility of an AVG that's in line with that K-rate. I'll have the luxury of sacrificing power, though, given Weeks' MI pop. (D. Wright, M. Teixeira, R. Weeks). -Salfino

36. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies - Sort of a lefty Roy Halladay(notes), a pitcher who needs 240 or so innings to be guaranteed to post the 210 Ks you'd normally want in a starter purchased at this price. Though that has not been his practice, a higher-than-projected innings total is aided by his ability to work deep into games with low pitch counts. His elite control virtually guarantees a WHIP in the 1.00 range, especially back in the NL. Just for fun, if he pitched all his 2009 innings with the Phillies with his Philadelphia K-rate, he would have posted about 216 Ks. The run support should result in a win total in line with his sweet peripherals. (C. Utley, C. Crawford, C. Lee). -Salfino

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Round 4

37. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins - When you pick at the end of the round, you have to sometimes pick first at a position. I suspect the top catchers will not make it back. So I went with arguably the best pure hitter in the AL. He's a groundball hitter, so the 28 homers of 2009 are unlikely. But last year's total is not projectable either. I'll bank 15-to-20 with a .330 average. If Jim Thome(notes) was back with the Twins, I'd have gone probably Victor Martinez(notes) here, but Martinez has issues, too (even though he'll DH most days). Mauer owners really need about 60 games at DH so he can pile up at-bats to really leverage that elite average. (This team so far: C. Utley, C. Crawford, C. Lee, J. Mauer). -Salfino

38. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - The K-rate was off the charts. He’s cracked through the 200-inning mark so workload is not a near-term concern. He walked 10 less guys in 33 more innings. Yes, he’s basically a two-pitch guy, but who cares when both pitches (fastball and slider) are plus-plus. He has the perfect size to maintain his top-tier velocity. And he plays in the National League, in one of the top-five pitcher's parks in baseball. (D. Wright, M. Teixeira, R. Weeks, C. Kershaw). -Salfino

39. Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals - I'm a little worried about the way the Cardinals are viewing defense these days — they've downgraded from Brendan Ryan(notes) to Ryan Theriot(notes) at shortstop, and Lance Berkman(notes) is going to be a lawn chair in the outfield — but nonetheless I feel great about Wainwright here. He's a 230-innings horse, a legitimate No. 1 for fantasy and real-life purposes. Wainwright's also a fun watch, a pitching clinic every time he's on the mound — spot your fastball early in the count, then put people away with your slider or curve. He'll always have a spot on my fake teams. (A. Rodriguez, R. Braun, J. Rollins, A. Wainwright). -Pianowski

40. CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees - The AL East is a very difficult place for a pitcher to make his mark, but Sabathia has handled the rigors quite well, thank you, collecting 40 wins, 394 strikeouts and 467.2 innings over the last two years, along with a tidy ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.17).

And yes, I'm citing the wins here — while there's a lot of flukiness to that stat, I'm always going to feel good about a pitcher who works deep into games for a stacked team like the Yankees. Sabathia has never had a major injury through his 10-year career, which makes the selection a little easier. (A. Gonzalez, J. Hamilton, B. Phillips, CC Sabathia). -Pianowski

41. Buster Posey, C/1B, San Francisco Giants - Even if you think Posey’s 18 HRs (in 108 games) as a rookie were somewhat fluky, as I’ve seen some claim, I’d still expect him to reach at least that total again given an extra two months of playing time in his sophomore campaign. After all, he hit 24 HRs in his minor league career (605 ABs) and he flashed plenty of power for Florida St. prior to his professional start. The catcher position has seen a player top 24 home runs just three times in the past seven years; if you are pushing 20 home runs, it’s fair to say you are among the elite power players at the backstop position. And there’s much less of a debate about Posey’s ability to hit for average. He has a fantastic eye and an advanced feel for the game. He’s been a low-K, .300-plus hitter at every level. I’m penciling him in for .300/20/90/80 as the Giants’ everyday clean-up hitter. Which would give Joe Mauer a run for his money. (R. Cano, R. Howard, J. Heyward, B. Posey). -Funston

42. Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves - There’s not much to explain about Uggla. He’s the rare second baseman that hits 30 HRs, drives in 90 runs and crosses the plate 100 times year over year. He also rarely misses a game. And now he’s calling Turner Field home — a park where he has produced a 1.051 OPS in 181 career at bats. Get over your concerns here about batting average. Batting clean up for a potentially explosive offense, Uggla could deliver his best season yet. (E. Longoria, M. Kemp, J. Upton, D. Uggla). -Funston

43. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - In his first full season, the toolsy commodity showed exactly why he was the 11th player taken in the 2005 draft. Featured primarily as a leadoff man, he batted .286 with 16 homers, 56 RBIs, 94 runs and 33 steals. He also hit an impressive .315 with runners in scoring position. Only a mere tot at 24, the sharp-eyed outfielder (0.79 BB/K in ’10) could be even better in the encore, particularly in AVG. Keep in mind his BABIP (.311) a year ago was considerably low. Don’t be afraid to dip into the treasure chest. (J. Votto, R. Zimmerman, N. Cruz, A. McCutchen). -Evans

44. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays - There is no more controversial figure in fantasy drafts this season than Bautista. The consensus: after a 54-homer campaign, the waiver superstar has very strong odds of becoming the next Brady Anderson.

But, realistically, how massive will the drop-off be? Based on his passive-aggressive plate demeanor (0.86 BB/K in ’10), absurdly low .233 BABIP and skyward 0.57 GB/FB, Bautista may not be the Soft Cell of fantasy after all. Underlying skills like his typically don’t vanish overnight, especially for a player in his prime. Yes, a decline is inevitable, but a Dunn-like follow-up is very possible (.265-40-100-90). Considering the lack of depth at 3B this year, he’s a bargain in Round 4. Believe. (C. Gonzalez, P. Fielder, S. Choo, J. Bautista). -Evans

45. Victor Martinez, C/1B, Detroit Tigers - He'll serve as the Tigers primary DH in '11, which should mean less wear on his body and more production. If V-Mart does his usual thing (.300/20/90), he'll be right there in the mix as one of the top fantasy backstops in the league. He represents huge value at pick 45 (ADP 29), and I just couldn't pass up the chance to grab one of the best pure hitters on the board at a position where that's premium value. My first three offensive players allow me to take some lower batting-average types with big power upside later in the draft. (T. Tulowitzki, M. Holliday, T. Lincecum, V. Martinez). -Steingall

46. Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox - I've always been a big Dunn fan. After missing him in some previous mocks and auctions, I reached a bit here to secure his services. He's annually a lock to challenge the 40-homer mark (seven straight seasons of 38-plus taters) and that number could rise in the offensive paradise that is US Cellular Field. I'm making this pick expecting a .265/40/110 campaign, plus 100 runs. Draft him anywhere near this slot with confidence. (M. Cabrera, J. Reyes, F. Hernandez, A. Dunn). -Steingall

47. Ichiro, OF, Seattle Mariners - If the draft ended right now, this team's roster would probably hit .340 for the season. Ichiro gives this squad a needed dose of speed (42 steals in 2010), plus his typical high average over 670-plus at-bats. This is simply one of the most reliable names in the player pool, both in terms of statistics and health. With Pujols and Ichiro already rostered, this owner is now free to take a few chances on Pena/Reynolds/Stanton-types, guys who can deliver elite power totals, but dreadful AVGs. (A. Pujols, R. Halladay, D. Pedroia, Ichiro). -Behrens

48. Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins - The hope was that V-Mart would continue his mysterious fall for just a few more picks, but Steingall eventually snagged him. Minor disappointment. For me, after the top-tier catchers are off the board, it's not really worth reaching for anyone in the next group. Same stats, different names.

So Johnson was a best-available selection here. While I don't necessarily believe he's significantly better than, say, Ubaldo Jimenez(notes) or Jon Lester(notes) or David Price(notes), I also don't think any of those guys will be available next time this team picks. Johnson gives you brilliant fantasy ratios and a terrific K-rate (9.11 K/9 last year), plus he's pitching in the right league. A clear fantasy ace. (H. Ramirez, K. Youkilis, I. Kinsler, J. Johnson). -Behrens

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sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Fantasy-Baseball-2011-Mock-Draft-Round-5;_ylt=Aq7gGEGBSlSFFcupypIVl60RvLYF?urn=fantasy-306813

Round 5


49. Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels - At this point, if I were the league commissioner, I might just pause the live draft to take a victory lap and talk some smack. Very pleased with this selection. There's really no penalty for waiting on a first baseman in a 12-team mixed league. Back in '09, Morales delivered 34 homers and 108 RBIs while batting .306. He was on pace for a repeat performance last year through 51 games (11-39-.290), but a fractured leg ended his season. (Unusual circumstances, you'll recall). He'll be ready in the spring. No reason to downgrade this guy. On my overall board, he ranks higher than No. 49. (H. Ramirez, K. Youkilis, I. Kinsler, J. Johnson, K. Morales). -Behrens

50. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers - Yeah, um … I sorta hate this pick, too. Drafting Beltre in the season after he signs the multi-year deal does not seem like a winning approach. But part of the mock exercise is to slot the guys where they'll ultimately go in real drafts, and this feels like the appropriate spot. Third base is a messy position — we're all basically trying to avoid Scott Rolen(notes) — and Beltre's name is next on the cheat sheet. The one nice thing I'll say about his situation is that he landed in nice lineup, in a friendly home park. (A. Pujols, R. Halladay, D. Pedroia, Ichiro(notes), A. Beltre). -Behrens

51. Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox - Great fantasy production in his first full season in Chicago (.284/21/88/34), erasing the memory of a pitiful '09. His strong contact rate (84.9 percent) and a normalized average on balls in play (.306) are major contributing factors to his return to my circle of trust. With my power established early with M-Cab and Dunn, I looked to sure up my speed without sacrificing other categories in the process. Rios is a five-category player and you don't find many of them in Round 5. (M. Cabrera, J. Reyes, F. Hernandez, A. Dunn, A. Rios). -Steingall

52. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins - He's been plagued by some rare baseball injuries during the previous two seasons (fractured back, concussion), which has discounted his price slightly. Doctors are saying he'll be ready to go during spring training, so fantasy owners should feel confident in his return. Morneau won't repeat the .345 average from last season, but should safely land in the .290 range. I'm comfortable taking on the risk of his medical past based on his offensive upside, something along the lines of .290/30/110. (T. Tulowitzki, M. Holliday, T. Lincecum, V. Martinez, J. Morneau). -Steingall

53. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies - Just a handful of years ago, selecting a Rockies pitcher in the early rounds would've likely drawn endless ridicule form the drafting gallery. However, one humidor later, the opposite is true. At 26, Jimenez has developed into a shutdown ace. For the third-straight season his K/9 climbed and his ERA plummeted. Don't fret over his 4.65 ERA after June 23. If the flamethrower cuts back on the free passes (3.74 BB/9 in '10), a Cy Young plaque will soon decorate his trophy room. He's a prime example why you can wait on starting pitching. (C. Gonzalez, P. Fielder, S. Choo, J. Bautista, U. Jimenez). -Evans

54. Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox - Mention Lester's name among pitching elites and the obtuse would laugh sarcastically. Though he may not be a name brand, the steady southpaw deserves to be placed in esteemed company. Simply, the man delivers outstanding numbers across the board. Over the past two years, he's emerged victorious 34 times and amassed a 9.85 K/9, 3.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, good enough for consecutive top-15 finishes among starters. Still a tender 27, he's a near lock for another upper-tiered campaign. (J. Votto, R. Zimmerman, N. Cruz, A. McCutchen, J. Lester). -Evans

55. Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta Braves - Hanson pitched 200 innings in 2010, logging most of them at age 23. For the final 112.2 of those innings, he produced a 2.40 ERA and 83:25 K-to-BB ratio. Hanson really is the entire package. He has a great frame. He throws strikes. He has two elite offerings (fastball, slider). He’s successful against lefty and righty hitters. He’s pitching for a should-be contender. And he’s got 330 quality innings under his belt by the ripe old age of 24. If he can avoid the May/June swoon this season, he’s got Cy Young upside. (E. Longoria, M. Kemp, J. Upton, D. Uggla, T. Hanson). -Funston

56. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees - Even the hair on the top of Brad Evans’ head isn’t as thin as the shortstop position. Last season, despite hitting 30 points lower than he’d hit in any of the previous five seasons — and 64 points lower than the season before last — Jeter still ranked third at the SS position in fantasy value. With a big giant chip on his shoulder after his contentious contract negotiations this winter, I’m definitely willing to bet he boosts that average at least 15 points while scoring his usual 100-plus runs and pushing 20 SBs. (R. Cano, R. Howard, J. Heyward, B. Posey, D. Jeter). -Funston

57. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers - He looked like a fantasy star in the making during the first half of 2010, but some balky hamstrings and a nasty batting slump in the second half collapsed his numbers. The pick here is based on the hope that Andrus will stick in the leadoff spot and get his piece of the Arlington undertow, but it's also possible he might slide to the ninth position with Ian Kinsler(notes) batting first. Obviously there's no power to speak of with Andrus and you get nothing for his plus defense. Bottom line, put Andrus on your players-to-watch radar in March; shortstop is a shallow position, and there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. I'm certainly not dug in on him in January, but I liked him enough to take an upside shot. (A. Gonzalez, J. Hamilton, B. Phillips, CC Sabathia(notes), E. Andrus). -Pianowski

58. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves - Normally I don't like springing for a designer catcher, but the price seems reasonable on McCann and he's settled in at a nice statistical area (.289 career average, with an average of 22 homers and 86 RBIs the last three years). Maybe we'll see a spike from McCann in his age-27 year, but even if he sticks where he's been recently, I'm fine with the purchase. It would be nice to see one year where McCann doesn't have a random eye problem; that's been a trending story throughout his career. (A. Rodriguez, R. Braun, J. Rollins, A. Wainwright, B. McCann). -Pianowski

59. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays - He walks too many to bet on those 2010 averages. But his stuff is so good — 94.6 mph on his fastball, and in plus territory (better than average) with three other pitches even though he throws the heater 74 percent of the time. Price probably needs to throw other pitches more, especially his change (just 5.5 percent of pitches). He could easily be the game’s best pitcher this year, but is best projected as more of a No. 2 fantasy starter given the control questions. (D. Wright, M. Teixeira, R. Weeks, C. Kershaw, D. Price). -Salfino

60. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers - Plausible as the No. 1 AL starter. The velocity is great (95.4 mph) but not so great that there’s a need to constantly worry that his arm gets shredded, like so many 100 mph guys before him. What makes him elite is his change-up, which always tantalized but now has arrived — 12.3 runs better than average last year. His curve is also among the game’s best. Verlander has maybe the best arsenal in all of baseball. (C. Utley, C. Crawford, C. Lee, J. Mauer, J. Verlander). -Salfino

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ROUND 6

61. Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals - We are at the point of the draft where you aren't going to love any pick. Butler is a borderline great hitter, but his power woes are inexplicable. Maybe the power suddenly becomes explicable this year, in the form of 25 jacks. You have to think there's a year like that somewhere in his future, given his size and ability to hit the ball hard (he doesn't have that .325 career BABIP based on his legs). His contact rate ensures a .300-15-90 type of floor, at least in terms of reasonable projections. That's worth a pick this round. -Salfino

62. Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - He had 30-plus homers in 2009 and 14 at home last year in just 73 games. Dodger Stadium is not a homer haven. So I feel like 30 jacks is 50/50 — provided he plays 150 games — and 25 is about the floor. He has the stroke of a .300 hitter, but it's more reasonable to project for .285-27-95. Not bad value here, considering we haven't seen his power peak yet. -Salfino

63. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers - We're still waiting for him to put together a full season, but this is a rather cheap price for a likely 200 strikeouts. He trimmed the walk rate last year, an encouraging sign. -Pianowski

64. Jayson Werth, OF, Washington Nationals - Don't hold the massive contract against him; you don't have to pay it. Werth will be a strong contributor in three categories, he'll steal a base now and again, and he should be neutral in average, maybe better. -Pianowski

65. Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers - Moving from the AL to the NL is almost always good for a pitcher, and the 30 games against the NL’s two worst offenses (Pittsburgh and Houston) certainly won’t hurt. -Funston

66. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians - Has as high of a ceiling as any backstop in terms of the power/batting average combo plate. Progress reports on his injured knee have been positive as he’s already resumed baseball activities. -Funston

67. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies - A season ago, the Camel carried his riders to an oasis of riches, posting career bests in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. With his ground ball percentage on the rise, he will again be a top-of-the-line SP2 in mixers. -Evans

68. Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota Twins - Burying "Fransucko" once and for all, the lefty returned to dominance in ’10, notching his best K/9 since ’06 (9.44). If his luck turns (.340 BABIP in ’10), a sub-3.25 ERA, 15 wins and 200-plus Ks are possible. -Evans

69. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox - It was time to add some speed to this roster, and Ellsbury fits the bill despite his injury-riddled '10 campaign. He should be at the top of a potent Boston lineup. I'm expecting 50 or more steals and well over 100 runs with this pick. -Steingall

70. Michael Young, 3B, Texas Rangers - Another boring veteran for this roster. But with third base getting scarce, Young's safe floor was the obvious choice. I'm not looking for power here. Give me .290/15/90 with around 100 runs I'll be happy. -Steingall

71. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels - He's a pitcher in his prime, coming off a season in which he threw 224.1 innings with a K/9 of 9.4, and the fantasy ratios were excellent (3.01, 1.07). That'll do. His stats weren't really about luck, but skill (.291 BABIP, 3.06 FIP). -Behrens

72. Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros - Well, someone had to eventually draft an Astro. Pence is coming off three straight 25-homer seasons, and he's also an asset in steals (18 in 2010). Last year, he went 90/90 in runs and RBIs, too. -Behrens

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ROUND 7

73. Brian Wilson, RP, San Francisco Giants - Should this guy be the first closer off the board? Not sure. But if you're a blogger conducting a mock draft, you need to think about photo possibilities. In this area, Wilson gets a serious edge over Mo, Marmol, Soria, et al. Wilson has also averaged 42 saves over the past three seasons, with a three-year K/9 of 10.4. -Behrens

74. Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds - We've been writing about Bruce for so long that it's easy to forget the fact that he's only 23. (He'll turn 24 in April). He's only now approaching his prime, and he's already given us three straight 20-plus homer seasons. This could very well be the year he tops 30 (or 35, or 40). -Behrens

75. Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels - A reliable workhorse who is going to deliver over 200 innings and strikeouts with solid ratios. He's a great value here, and should be strong once again in '11. -Steingall

76. BJ Upton, OF, Tampa Bay Rays - I know the average is frightful, but the steals are so delightful. Add in solid pop (18 homers in '10) and around 90 runs, and you've got a nice little upside play here. -Steingall

77. Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox - After the top shortstop tier falls to the wayside, Alexei is downright sexy. Trim down the groundballs (1.44 GB/FB in ’10) and he’s a poor man’s Tulo. -Evans

78. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins - With 359 at-bats under his belt, a major power explosion should be anticipated in ’11. By year’s end, the difference between the youngster and Adam Dunn(notes) will be negligible. -Evans

79. Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs - Saves are only part of the equation here. League has hit no better than .170 against him in each of his four full seasons, and he’s averaged 110 Ks in that span. -Funston

80. Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds - This squad was in need of some SBs, so I’m willing to take a possible .250 bullet for the potential of 40 SBs (and 25 HRs). -Funston

81. Mariano Rivera, RP, New York Yankees - I've got New England roots, so it's difficult to select a player who's fantasy success is tied to the Yankees winning. (I don't mind with the offensive guys; I'll root for high-scoring losses in that case). That all said, Rivera is one of the safest roto picks of all time, and I like my first closer to be someone I'm not at all worried about. -Pianowski

82. Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants - His modest win totals scare a lot of people away, but he's a safe bet everywhere else (figure 175 strikeouts, 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and one of these years he'll fall into a lucky 17-18 win season. The roomy home park provides a nice floor. -Pianowski

83. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians - Every player has his price, and I think this is fair when assessing Sizemore's upside and his undeniable downside, too. We're just trying to find the proper balance between risk and reward. But, ultimately, we are just guessing. -Salfino

84. Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals - I think last year was the tip of the iceberg. I'm not sure when the upside that Rasmus projects is coming — and I conceded there likely will be some dips along the way — but I'm very confident that the laudatory scouting reports about him were, on balance, correct. -Salfino

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ROUND 8

85. Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks - Usually I do not think of roster construction this early. But this squad has batting average to burn. The steals provide flexibility in seeking to win that category, or get into the power mix as this draft progresses. Of course, Young has demonstrated ample pop, too. No one is without risks at this juncture of the draft. -Salfino

86. Heath Bell, RP, San Diego Padres - I'd punt steals in competitive leagues, maybe opting for some cheap upside late in the draft to keep myself in the mix for the big waiver-wire saves scores that will inevitably come. But you have to draft closers around this spot in a league that's innings-capped, because you are not allowed to attack the pitching categories with innings volume. -Salfino

87. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Boston Red Sox - I don't think his 2010 season was as bad as some do; poor sequencing of events turned into the biggest problem. Papelbon plays on a team that should be a lock for 90-plus wins, he strikes out more than a batter per inning, and he'll own the ninth inning for all those cushy stat-grabs. Sign me up. -Pianowski

88. Kelly Johnson, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks - His fast start put the regression police on guard. "Correction coming!" they screamed. Johnson didn't follow the narrative; he posted a .293/.365/.495 line in the second half. Arizona's a fun place to hit, too (.976 OPS at home). -Pianowski

89. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs - He hit 15 home runs (.847 OPS) after the break and, in a walk year, he won’t be lacking in the motivation department. -Funston

90. Mat Latos, SP, San Diego Padres - I feel fortunate to land Latos this late. He was a top 10 roto starter in ’10 and the fluke factor had very little to do with it. -Funston

91. Shane Victorino, OF, Philadelphia Phillies - It’s dumbfounding the Pineapple Express isn’t getting more respect in early drafts. He’s a steady, multi-cat producer whose AVG should rebound back to his ’09 level (.292). -Evans

92. Delmon Young, OF, Minnesota Twins - The firebrand cooled his temper and exercised his pedigree a season ago, establishing career benchmarks in HR, RBIs and AVG. If his fly-ball rate continues to climb, 25-30 bombs are on the horizon. -Evans

93. Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City Royals - His team stinks, so the games they do win will be close. He boasts excellent ratios (1.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and a strong K/9 (9.73), numbers that will serve my pitching staff well. -Steingall

94. Nick Markakis, OF, Baltimore Orioles - Deeply discounted due to a down year (.290/12/60) that was driven mainly by the lineup around him. A healthy Brian Roberts(notes) and the addition of Mark Reynolds(notes) should boost his value to the pre-2010 level. -Steingall

95. Roy Oswalt, SP, Philadelphia Phillies - I had to triple-check to make sure Oswalt was really still on the board. Perhaps we've already seen his best seasons, but c'mon. He gave us over 210 innings last season, he struck out 193 hitters, and he led the NL in WHIP. Also helping his cause: The Phillies offer the sort of run support that Astros starters only dream of. -Behrens

96. Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox - It seems doubtful that Pauly can repeat last year's ridiculous numbers (89-39-111-.312), not in his age-35 season. But this is nonetheless a reliable slugger in an extremely friendly park. With every pick spent on a hitter thus far, this team has managed to draft 25-35 homers. -Behrens

And just to make it an even 100, here are four bonus picks:

97. Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers - He was absolutely dominant in the second-half for Detroit, following a brief trip to Triple-A to reboot.

98. Neftali Feliz, RP, Texas Rangers - Speaking of second-half dominance, check out Feliz's post-break numbers: 1.42 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 29 Ks, 31.2 IP, 17 SV. Let's all do our part to make sure he remains in the Rangers' bullpen, please.

99. Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs - While he's not clearly more valuable than, say, Miguel Montero(notes) or Jorge Posada(notes), there's a chance that the tier would be empty on the way back.

100. Corey Hart, OF, Milwaukee Brewers - He's entering his age-29 season, coming off a 91-31-102-.283 campaign. We can't exclude this guy from the top-100, right? No, of course we can't. Feel free to get aggressive on the basepaths, Corey.