Article from ESPN

[jake2bake4]

Here is the link to his article but this is what he said about the Reds.

sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=roberts032508

Stat junkies don't like him, and for good reason, but Corey Patterson is still an impressive player to watch. He runs well and takes strong swings at the plate. We'd probably rather see Jay Bruce at the plate, but I could see tonight why Baker and the Reds snatched up this guy at a bargain-basement price.

Despite earning his first win of the spring and allowing no earned runs in 4 1/3 innings, Homer Bailey looked just awful. He walked six batters, including Marcum, and ended up throwing just 42 of his 84 pitches for strikes. Even worse, his curveball was about the least deceptive curve I've seen in quite some time. He threw it from a different arm slot than his over-the-top fastball, and it had to be quite readable to hitters. He throws hard, but the kid just doesn't look ready for the bigs right now. I wouldn't want him anywhere near my mixed-league -- maybe not even my NL-only -- roster right now.

Adam Dunn sent the first pitch he saw (from Marcum) screaming over the right-field fence. Dunn is a patient hitter, but it's worth noting that in 2007, he hit .403 with nine homers in 62 balls put in play on the first pitch. Maybe with aggressive-minded manager Dusty Baker urging him to swing more, he could take better advantage of those numbers.

You know who else homered? Joey Votto. He sent one a "country mile" to center field, hitting it so far that even Ken Griffey Jr. nodded his approval to Baker when they made eye contact shortly thereafter.

[jake2bake4]

I was pretty disappointed to read that about Bailey. He writes about fantasy baseball but obviously knows what hes looking for. Bailey has to spend at least half the season down at AAA to work on becoming a good pitcher.

I thought that was a VERY interesting stat on Dunn and his first pitch statistics. Should be interesting to see how Dunn approaches this season. This being a contract season...anything is possible in my book.

And I think the little part about Griffey and Baker was interesting. Votto has tremendous potential.

[Lark11]

I'm not familiar with the guy who wrote it, but it's an interesting article. Actually, I think his Rays insight was a bit more comprehensive and interesting, but not bad insight on the Reds.

However, I have to question his comment on Dunn's approach. I would suggest that Dunn's success on 1st pitches is the direct result of his patient approach. Dunn looks for a first pitch he can hit. If he gets it, then he takes a rip. Getting more aggressive isn't going to help, because it has to be the pitch he is looking for and can handle. Swinging more often on the 1st pitch just to "be more aggressive" is rather illogical. The 1st pitch production is a result of his approach, so altering his approach to become more aggressive will likely do nothing but reduce his production in those situations.

As for Homer, it's disconcerting, but I think it's clear that he's just not ready. The arrival of Cueto and Edinson means that we can afford to keep Homer in AAA all year, which is exactly what should happen. I've said it before, but my problem with Homer isn't that he has struggled, but it's HOW he has struggled. Lincecum and Liriano look like studs even when they struggle. I never saw a dominant pitcher when watching Homer last year. He's got time to develop, but he's just not ready for the MLB. The command and control just aren't there yet.

[The Duke]

You're dead on about Dunn Lark, because he will not swing at slop when the count is low he gets his high % when he does swing then.

The comment about Homer's curve coming from a different arm slot is right on too, that is something I noticed this spring that I didn't realy pick up last year. At this point I think he should forget the curve and work on his changeup and slider as his other two pitches, and just use the curve as a show me pitch 4-5 times a game to throw hitter off.

[oldschoolstyle]

I'd like to see Homer quit thowing so hard. It's like me and driving in golf. I was having trouble hitting the fairways cuz I was trying to hit the ball to hard. I dialed it down to 200 yds instead of trying to crush 280 yd drives and got my touch back. Then I gradually increased my effort until I got to 260 yds again. Now they are straight as an arrow. I wish he would sacrafice 2 mph for more accuracy and maybe movement.

[Lark11]

theduke said:

You're dead on about Dunn Lark, because he will not swing at slop when the count is low he gets his high % when he does swing then.

The comment about Homer's curve coming from a different arm slot is right on too, that is something I noticed this spring that I didn't realy pick up last year. At this point I think he should forget the curve and work on his changeup and slider as his other two pitches, and just use the curve as a show me pitch 4-5 times a game to throw hitter off.

I'm not sure about his arm slot. At least last season, I think Homer's arm slot and release point were fairly consistent.

If you look at this page, there is a graph of Homer's release point for each pitch of 2007. It's a pretty tight cluster, so I don't think he's working from different arm slots. But, maybe he's made some changes this spring training.

baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Homer_Bailey.html