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Post by starpower25 on Mar 25, 2008 16:41:47 GMT -5
I am not a big fan of the pitch count as its used right now. Why is 100 pitches the magic number ? Why not 110 ? In the past ptichers threw more often in 4 man rotations and way way more pitches per start. I am talkign about pitchers like Ryan, Charlton and others. I dont believe arm issues were anymore or any less a concern back then. I just feel that teams overuse the pitch count thing IMO.....Today Volquez threw 89 pitches in 5 innings. If the pitchc ount was more like 110 there would be no question during the reg season he goes out another inning maybe 2 ! Sometimes I think that its because of pitch counts that pitchers get hurt ! I feel that they dont throw enough and there arms are never properly ready to go out there every 5th day.
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 25, 2008 17:47:31 GMT -5
I am not a big fan of the pitch count as its used right now. Why is 100 pitches the magic number ? Why not 110 ? In the past ptichers threw more often in 4 man rotations and way way more pitches per start. I am talkign about pitchers like Ryan, Charlton and others. I dont believe arm issues were anymore or any less a concern back then. I just feel that teams overuse the pitch count thing IMO.....Today Volquez threw 89 pitches in 5 innings. If the pitchc ount was more like 110 there would be no question during the reg season he goes out another inning maybe 2 ! Sometimes I think that its because of pitch counts that pitchers get hurt ! I feel that they dont throw enough and there arms are never properly ready to go out there every 5th day. Well, sounds like Dusty is a manager after your own heart.  Personally, I fear what Dusty will do to Cueto. Cueto is just the type of pitcher that Dusty can abuse, as he has the performance level to work a lot of effective innings. Homer isn't good enough right now to work deep into games, but Cueto certainly is. I for one hope that Cueto has a strict pitch count. While I tend to agree that the idea that the pitch count is a nice round 100 pitches is a bit convenient, I do think limiting the workload has value. I tend to buy into the school of thought that a pitcher is more likely to get injured when he gets tired, because fatigue will break down his mechanics. I also tend to agree with the notion that pitchers should work shorter outings (100-105 pitches), but work more often. At some point, I'd like to see the return of the 4 man rotation. I don't think there is any medical or performance benefit to the 5 man rotation. As for not throwing enough, I tend to agree with that as well. Leo Mazzone is an advocate of throwing more often between starts, but at a much lower effort. By throwing more often but at lower effort level (~65% effort), pitchers build up arm strength and work on their command. If you haven't read it, I found his book to be rather interesting. It's nominally targeted at younger pitchers, but it's a good read for everyone. Leo learned from Johnny Sain and they are probably the best 2 pitching coaches in recent memory. search.barnesandnoble.com/Pitching-like-a-Pro/Leo-Mazzone/e/9780312199463/?itm=1 |
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Post by schellis on Mar 25, 2008 20:52:09 GMT -5
I believe the bigger problem is number of pitches under stress. Another factor is age of the pitcher.
The era that you are refering to is one where pitchers were throwing a ton as even kids so when they reached adulthood it wasn't that big of a deal.
Now pitchers are babied more, so they don't throw as often and as such a steep increase in work load could lead to a break down.
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Post by tmil23 on Mar 25, 2008 21:50:50 GMT -5
I've yet to see Cueto pitch, but I pray he doesn't throw like Wood did when he came up. It was just a matter of time before Kerry would break down...with or without Dusty's help.
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jake2bake4
Brett Tomko
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby
Posts: 105
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Post by jake2bake4 on Mar 25, 2008 22:53:23 GMT -5
I've yet to see Cueto pitch, but I pray he doesn't throw like Wood did when he came up. It was just a matter of time before Kerry would break down...with or without Dusty's help. Thats what a lot of people forget to take into consideration with this whole 'Dusty is going to ruin our pitchers' mentality. Yes he may have thrown them for too long but Wood was going to break down sooner rather than later. His mechanics were horrible. I've read that his mechanics are great and from the little I've watched I haven't seen anything that could be a big problem. I also think the pitch count is too big an issue. If a pitcher is tired, take him out but if Harang or Arroyo are doing alright fine then let them go out for another inning. The pitchers need to be honest to avoid injury. And I don't like hearing that they'll go out even if they are tired, you need to be honest and help the team as well as themselves. |
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Post by GMBurchfield on Mar 25, 2008 23:02:32 GMT -5
It isnt like Dusty is the only coach ever to over use someone.
Kenny Baugh's arm was over used so bad in college that he had no chance to reach his potnetial for the Tigers.
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 25, 2008 23:10:35 GMT -5
I've fired up the Tivo again and surprisingly enough there is yet another interesting insight by Steve Phillips. Phillips was talking about pitch counts and stated that it wasn't just the total number of pitches, but also "how compacted they are." High effort innings are more taxing than a well distributed workload. Either I'm starved for baseball insight or Steve Phillips is actually better than he used to be.  |
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Post by The Duke on Mar 26, 2008 5:41:04 GMT -5
I do think the pitch count matters, but only because that is how these pitchers have been conditioned throughout the minors, always on strict pitch counts. If you want to get back to a time where pitchers can throw 140-150 pitches ina game without a problem, then you would need to start from the bottom on up in the minors to develope a workout regement that would build the arm strength required to do that. You would probably blow out a couple arms in the process, but if pitcher made it through, they would be very durable strong armed pitchers.
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Post by starpower25 on Mar 26, 2008 9:33:35 GMT -5
Lark you might be right....if you want to stay at a 100-110 pitch count then why not go to a 4 man rotation. Pitchers throw between starts anyway so why not limit that and let them go every 4 days!
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 26, 2008 16:41:49 GMT -5
Lark you might be right....if you want to stay at a 100-110 pitch count then why not go to a 4 man rotation. Pitchers throw between starts anyway so why not limit that and let them go every 4 days! I agree. In addition, it's a helluva lot easier to find 4 quality starting pitchers than 5. By going with 4, we'd save money and free up a roster spot for another reliever or an additional bench player. By going down to 4, I think we'd get better production out of our starting staff, save money, and increase roster flexibility. Just my $.02. |
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Post by blee2525 on Mar 26, 2008 17:51:31 GMT -5
Star-
Where has 100 pitches ever been considered "the magic number" as though you have to remove a guy as soon as he hits it? Announcers often point it out, and many pitchers leave shortly thereafter, but I don't think there's any manager whose guy is cruising through 8, and gets lifted just because he hit 100. When I'm discussing pitch counts, I usually use 120 as a benchmark.
As schellis noted, what's really important is how many pitches a guy throws past his "fatigue point." Obviously, that varies greatly depending on the pitcher. Arroyo seems to hit a wall right around 100, while Harang often cruises up to and past 120 without showing any ill effects.
You can't just point to 1 or 2 examples like Ryan and say "See, they turned out fine." I knew a guy who smoked 3 packs a day, and he was killed in a car accident. Does that mean that smoking doesn't cause cancer?
Also, you're making a huge assumption that innings today are the same as they were years ago. Every rule change in the last 50 years has benefitted offense. Newer parks are built with seats closer to the action, meaning more balls in the seats, and less balls in play to convert to outs. Offensive philosophy has shifted towards an increased emphasis on OBP, leading to longer at-bats. It was easy to throw 300 innings when guys hacked at the first thing they saw, never walked, and never struck out. Now, when batters routinely grind out 7 pitch at-bats, it's damn near impossible.
Pitch counts => injuries is wrong, wrong, wrong.
New rules+shift in philosophy => More Pitches => More arm injuries => Pitch counts
You can't honestly believe that letting a kid go out and throw 150 pitches is a good idea, can you?
Volquez came out after 89 pitches because it was a spring training game and they needed to look at some relievers, not because he reached a magic number that made Dusty decide he was done.
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 26, 2008 18:06:44 GMT -5
Agreed.
It's also the decline of the Buddy Biancalana's of the world that is making things difficult. In the past, there were a couple of regulars (2b/ss/c) who just flat out couldn't hit at all. They were really no threat, so a starting pitcher could afford to take those ABs easy, because those hitters couldn't really hurt you.
They could groove fastballs without worrying about the ball traveling 500 feet the other direction. That's just not the case anymore, as every position in the modern game is an offensive position to a certain extent. Larkin and Ripken brought an offensive component to the modern shortstop, Pizza helped bring about a resurgence of offense behind the dish, etc. Of course, the addition of the DH in the AL is another example.
There are no more easy outs or ABs for pitchers. They have to consistently pitch with effort and their best stuff.
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Post by blee2525 on Mar 27, 2008 20:19:42 GMT -5
What I am about to post below astounds me.
Pretty much everybody agrees that Brandon Webb and Aaron Harang are the 2 biggest workorses in the NL, right?
Kerry Wood had 14 games where he threw 120+ pitches during the 2003 season.
Aaron Harang has thrown 14 games of 120+ pitches in his entire career.
Brandon Webb has less games of 120+ pitches in his career (4) than Wood had during the month of September 2003 (5).
Sure, he had arm problems before, but doesn't that mean that caution was even more warranted in his case? He might have gotten hurt anyway, but Dusty abused him.
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 27, 2008 20:58:59 GMT -5
What I am about to post below astounds me. Pretty much everybody agrees that Brandon Webb and Aaron Harang are the 2 biggest workorses in the NL, right? Kerry Wood had 14 games where he threw 120+ pitches during the 2003 season. Aaron Harang has thrown 14 games of 120+ pitches in his entire career. Brandon Webb has less games of 120+ pitches in his career (4) than Wood had during the month of September 2003 (5). Sure, he had arm problems before, but doesn't that mean that caution was even more warranted in his case? He might have gotten hurt anyway, but Dusty abused him. I'd say he handled Mark Prior even worse. In 2003, Mark Prior was 22 years old and enter his first full season at the MLB level. He was coming out of USC as one of the most heralded pitching prospects of recent memory. He had a fantastic season in 2003, one for the ages, but he's never been the same since. Here's a look at Prior's workload and Dusty's handling of him during that season.
A LOOK AT 2003In 2003, Mark Prior pitched 211.1 regular season innings and then went on to throw 23.1 more innings in the postseason, so he threw a cumulative 234.2 innings in 2003. I just checked and by my count, he made 30 starts and here is the number of times he threw under 100 pitches and between 100-109 pitches, 110-119 pitches, 120-130 pitches, and 131+ pitches during the regular season: Under 100: 4 Times 100-109: 7 Times 110-119: 10 Times 120-130: 6 Times 131 or more: 3 Times So, he only threw fewer than 100 pitches in 4 out of his 30 starts.
PRIOR IN THE 2003 PLAYOFFSMore fun facts, look what Dusty did to him in September, when the Cubs needed to make a push for the postseason. Sept. 1: 131 pitches Sept. 6: 129 pitches Sept. 11: 109 pitches Sept 16: 124 pitches Sept 21: 131 pitches Sept 27: 133 pitches By my count, that's 6 starts and 757 pitches in September at the end of a long season. Not to mention, back to back starts of 130+ pitches in the final 2 weeks of the season. After a long year and a lot of innings, Dusty had Prior throw two of his highest pitch count games. Now, on to the postseason, where Prior put up the following pitch counts: 10/3 NLDS Game 3: CG 132 Pitches 10/8 NLCS Game 2: 115 Pitches (115 pitches despite Cubs scoring 12 runs through 6) 10/14 NLCS Game 6: 119 Pitches
WORKLOAD BREAKDOWNWhen you add in the 366 pitches he threw in 3 post season games, Prior threw a grand total of 3,764 pitches in 33 starts in 2003. Regular Season Pitches: 3,398 GS: 30 #P/GS: 113 Post Season Pitches: 366 GS: 3 #P/GS: 122
COMPARED TO A WORKHORSEJust to help put Prior's workload in his age 22 season into the appropriate context, let's compare his workload to that of legendary workhorse Aaron Harang. Over the past three seasons, Harang has thrown the following number of pitches: 2005: 3,402 (32 Starts, #P/GS: 106) 2006: 3,734 (35 Starts, #P/GS: 107) 2007: 3,583 (34 Starts, #P/GS: 105) So, at the ripe old age of 22, Mark Prior threw more pitches in a single season (combined regular season and postseason) than Aaron Harang ever has. And, he did it in fewer starts, which means that he threw far more pitches per start. Modern researches also indicates that an arm is much more susceptible to injury when fatigued, so throwing more pitches means that the risk of arm injury is even higher. Evidently, Prior should be thankful that he missed a few starts over a stretch in July/August, or else his arm might have just flown right off. In short, what happened to Mark Prior in 2003 is something that should never happen in the modern game. Modern medicine has removed some of the fog over pitching injuries and revealed that one of the quickest ways to ruin a young pitcher is to overwork him. It cannot be definitively stated that Baker caused Prior to get injured, but given what we know about young pitchers and heavy workloads, he certainly put Prior at a substantially higher risk of injury. |
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Post by The Duke on Mar 27, 2008 21:11:18 GMT -5
Now that is some serious posting  Great analysis, and I hope that Dusty has learned his lesson. |
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Personally, I fear what Dusty will do to Cueto. Cueto is just the type of pitcher that Dusty can abuse, as he has the performance level to work a lot of effective innings. Homer isn't good enough right now to work deep into games, but Cueto certainly is. I for one hope that Cueto has a strict pitch count. 
