What do you think the Democrats should do

[dukecrunchybagel]

This quesiton is largely directed at my Democratic friends on the board, but anyone can feel free to chime in.

It is my opinion that the statements of Rev. Jeremiah Wright has tremendously hurt the Obama campaign. Instead of being a candidate that will enter the general election with few negatives, Sen. Obama will now have to battle the negative images he's been accused of.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, this happened at a very bad time (again my opinion), it has effectively rejuvenated the Clinton campaign, which might have otherwise been forced out of the running with Obama having decent sized victories in Texas & Ohio (last month) and then Pennsylvania (this week).

Come June, the party will have a very difficult and divisive situation on their hands. Reconiliation between Obama & Clinton seems unlikely. It seems to me they will have three options:

1) Stay the course and nominate Obama

Obama will likely go to Denver with the lead in delegates and having won more popular votes. He is a tremedous orator and extremely charismatic and much like Bill Clinton & Ronald Reagan before him, it will be difficult for too much mud to stick to him. The American Public could by November forget all about it.

OTOH, Rev. Wright seems unable to simply shut up; it seems very likely he will keep sounding off and further complicate Obama's candidacy. It is guesswork as to how much the average middle-of-the-road American will actually forget this, espciall since Obama's main message has been change and has been very light on actual substance. Obama does not have much experience and will be competing against McCain, who is well-known and with a lot of Senate work testifying to his competency.
Conservatives have also yet to fully exploit some of Obama's other questionable friend, e.g. William Ayres, formerly with the Weather Underground. It may very well be that Obama is so damaged that he is unelectable.

2) Go with the momentum and nominate Clinton

Sen. Clinton has been a roll of late. She had a very impressive victories in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, the first two of which will be crucial to the Democrats taking the White House. She has also done extremely well in the states that really matter to the Democrats - Pennyslvania, Ohio, Florida, New Jersey. She has the tremendous talents of Pres. Clinton to draw upon and has experience from her days as probably Pres. Clinton's closes advisor.

OTOH, about 35% of Americans wouldn't vote for Sen. Clinton if she was running against Josef Stalin. She won't be going into Denver with the most delegates. If the delegates bypass Obama for Clinton, it might lead to an irrevocable split with the black constuency which is so important to the Democrats (90% of blacks voted for Kerry, 92% voted for Gore). Without an active black community supporting them, it is possible the Democrat might never win another election ever.

3) Enter a smoke-filled room and pull out a dark horse

Clinton certainly and Obama probably will both go to November with tremendous negatives against a Republican candidate that is pretty moderate, all things considered. It may be that neither stands much of a chance at winning. A badly fracture convention would only worsen the problem. Maybe the answer is to punt both of them and go with another answer. I'd think Al Gore would be very high on this list, as he is currently viewed very favorably after his Noble Peace Prize and work about climate change.

OTOH, talk about disenfranchising core constituencies, you could tick off both the black and feminists by nominating a white male for president at this point. Al Gore is also, truth be told, not much of campaigner (Heck, he lost to an equally unadroit G W Bush).

So, friends, what would you do if you were a delegate?

[psuhistory]

I think, unenthusiastically at this point, that we should nominate Obama. In my opinion, the republicans will have difficulty winning a national election with the bad economy and responsibility for the war. The efforts to shift both of these things, it seems to me, have only limited chances of success. But on the issues that matter most to me, particularly education, I don't see what Obama is offering that I should jump up and down about...

That's more than two cents, so I'll be quiet now...

[schellis]

I think the party that nominates someone that is close to middle of the road will be the one that wins.

Much like baseball you can't win if you only play one side of the game.

Balance is needed.

I don't want someone that talks a good game and says what they believe people want to hear.

Rather have someone that has some common sense, knows that there is no quick fixes and that nothing they do will please everyone.

[powerofcincy]

As a Republican, I never felt like we really had a chance to win this election at all given the anti-Bush sentiment that seems to have seized the nation. I feel that McCain is a weak candidate in an election that requires a powerful one if the Republicans are to have a chance against the Democratic candidate, who at this point I feel fairly certain will be Obama. The average American realizes that the words of Wright did not come out of Obama's mouth, and will be reasonable enough to distinguish the two. In the long run, I don't think people will remember it, and unfortunately for me I see Obama defeating McCain rather handily in November.

[The Duke]

The morons who relate what Wright says as what Obama might think are the morons who don't vote anyway because they don't want to miss quarter wing tuesdays at their favorite bar. I am and know a lot of moderate middle of the road type voters that will vote for whom appears to be the best candidate regardless of party, and almost to a T none of them would consider voting for Hilary, and this includes most of the females I know. If Hillary is the democratic nomination, then the democrats wil llose the unlosable election. Obama will be fine come November and would win by at least 5 points, and this is coming from a guy that likes McCain (but still might vote for Obama, I like both, need to really get into their policies).

[scottscudder]

I think the problem for Obama is that he claims that experience is less important than judgement, but he has shown very poor judgement in attending Wright's church for 20 years.

He may not believe in the same things as Wright, but for some reason he decided to have Wright preside over his wedding and his kids' baptisms. I think he also dedicated his book to Wright?

And then just a few weeks ago, Obama said he could not cut ties with Wright anymore than he could the black community. And now that it's politically expedient, what has he done? He's completely cut himself off from Wright.

I think the Democrats have not really "gone after" Obama on this topic nearly as much as Republicans will when the time comes. McCain won't do it himself, but some Republican lobby will. And it will be crushing.

Despite her popularity issues, I think Hillary is more qualified than Obama, and that's who I would nominate.

All this being said, it is a huge uphill struggle for McCain to win the election this year. He's running up a downward escalator, weighed down by Bush's negatives.

[The Duke]

I still don't see all this experience Hillary has. Bill's white house chef has 8 years experience in the white house too, but that doesn't mean he was making policy. She hasn't been a senator that much longer than Obama (if at all, not sure of the top of my head), and really he has had much more public service experience than her if you look outside just politics.

[scottscudder]

May 5, 2008 5:18:47 GMT -5 The Duke said:

I still don't see all this experience Hillary has. Bill's white house chef has 8 years experience in the white house too, but that doesn't mean he was making policy. She hasn't been a senator that much longer than Obama (if at all, not sure of the top of my head), and really he has had much more public service experience than her if you look outside just politics.

Agree. Hillary's experience is not really that great either. I do think she has more knowledge of policy though and is thus more qualified. Obama would benefit from a few more years in the Senate or as a governor.