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Post by blee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 9:19:48 GMT -5
news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080323/COL09/803230409/1062/SPTWow, sanity from a member of the Cincinnati media member. Highlights: Those of you who like the "Moneyball" numbers game love Dunn. His OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) annually is among the best in baseball.
He's 22nd in the category among active players. Only three players under age 30 are above him - No. 2 Albert Pujols, No. 14 Miguel Cabrera and No. 20 Mark Teixeira.Dunn is among the best in baseball in durability. He's been on the disabled list only once in his career, and he plays through things that sideline other guys.He's a guy who always has been liked by everyone who covers the team on a daily basis, although not so much by some columnists. (Ed. - Wonder who he might mean by that) 4 years - $56 mil. Now. Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Bailey will only be in their first year of arbitration by the end, so they're still cheap. Harang and Arroyo are both locked up reasonably. Griffey will be off the books. There is no excuse not to get this done. If they let him walk crying poverty while doling out $3mil contracts to deadweight like Freel and Stanton, and $12mil contracts to guys who play 80 innings a season, I'm done.
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jake2bake4
Brett Tomko
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby
Posts: 105
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Post by jake2bake4 on Mar 23, 2008 10:47:23 GMT -5
Exactly, the more you think about it, we have to resign Dunn if we want to be taken seriously. He is a great talent who should be hitting his prime in the next 3-4 years. He can be the leader these young guys need and his talent is special...even though he can drive us crazy sometimes. Gotta get him resigned here in the next couple months.
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Post by blee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 12:37:39 GMT -5
I actually forgot my favorite part
As much as I like Dunn, I'm not sure I would have advocated signing him long-term three or four years ago.
Dunn 4 years ago:
.266/.388/.569, 146OPS+, 105R, 46HR, 102RBI, 195K
Not worth a contract extension
Dunn 3 years ago:
.247/.387/.540, 141OPS+, 107R, 40HR, 101RBI, 168K
Not worth a contract extension
Dunn last year
.264/.386/.554, 136OPS+, 101R, 40HR, 106RBI, 165K
Worth a contract extension
Dunn is exactly the same player he was 3-4 years ago. Only one thing has changed between then and now that makes him worth a contract extension in the eyes of The Fay; Fay's perception.
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Post by sabo3b17 on Mar 23, 2008 13:17:07 GMT -5
If the reds wish to lock him up for 4 years 52 million i am good with that, anymore then no thx! His current salary is 13 mil and i am willing to stay at 13 mil a year but no more. There has to be other OF's out there that will produce the same amount of HR's and RBI's along with the same amount of K's for 13 mil a year. That much puts him in the same money cat as Carlos Lee and Lee IMO is a better player then Dunn. (Lee's 08 salary, not 09-12)
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 23, 2008 13:29:24 GMT -5
If the reds wish to lock him up for 4 years 48 million i am good with that, anymore then no thx! His current salary is 10.5 mil and i am willing to go up to 12 mil a year but no more. There has to be other OF's out there that will produce the same amount of HR's and RBI's along with the same amount of K's for 12 mil a year. That much puts him in the same money cat as Carlos Lee and Lee IMO is a better player then Dunn. Dunn > Lee. In addition, Lee got one of the most ridiculous contracts of recent memory. The Astros will be regretting that one in a big way in the near future. It looks like this:
Carlos Lee of
6 years/$100M (2007-12)
* signed as a free agent 11/06
* $3M signing bonus
* 07:$11M, 08:$12M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$18.5M |
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Post by sabo3b17 on Mar 23, 2008 13:31:09 GMT -5
Actually lark i went back and edited that post before your comments lol.
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 23, 2008 13:32:56 GMT -5
Actually lark i went back and edited that post before your comments lol. lol You work fast. At the latest, the Astros will be regretting this contract at $18.5M in 2010. However, I think buyer's remorse will set in when the $18.5M in 2009 arrives. |
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Post by blee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 13:42:33 GMT -5
That much puts him in the same money cat as Carlos Lee and Lee IMO is a better player then Dunn. (Lee's 08 salary, not 09-12) Well, you're wrong. Dunn had a better OBP, SLG, OPS+ (which is park-adjusted), more Runs, HR, the same number of SB's, less CS's, and, believe it or not, Dunn is a better defender than Lee. Chris Dial had Dunn at -5 runs last year, while Lee was the worst LF in baseball with -23. The only reason you think Lee is better than Dunn is because he had more RBI. Would you like to know why Lee had more RBI than Dunn? Lee had 490 baserunners in front of him in his PA's last season. Dunn had 395 baserunners in front of him in his PA's last season. So, Lee only drove in 13 more runs despite 95 more baserunners on in front of him. Dunn is a better player than Lee, and if you factor in age and the contract Lee signed, it's not particularly close. |
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Post by sabo3b17 on Mar 23, 2008 14:00:10 GMT -5
And how has Lee been better the past 4 years? Lee is just as durable as Dunn has been. Lee has only missed 10 games in the past 4 years, Dunn 15. Dunn does have an advantage in Hr's 166-132 Lee has the advantage in RBI's 448-401 Dunn leads in Runs 412-384 Lee has a huge advantage in the K dept only 301 to Dunn's whopping 722 Dunn has a big advantage in the walk dept 435-222 Lee has a .293 avg the past 4 years compared to Dunns .252 avg. Lee has 53 sb's to Dunns 26 Minor stat here. Dunn's OBP is around .380 for the 4 years and Lee's is close to .355 Based on all that stuff i would take lee over Dunn any day. Dunn his what an avg of 8.5 extra Hr's a year. Dunn k's on avg 105x more a year. 8.5 hr's dont make Dunn a better player then Lee. Now Dunn for 12 million a year then yes he is better, But dunn for more then that a year no. Just my 2 cents, friendly chatter  |
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Post by sabo3b17 on Mar 23, 2008 14:04:15 GMT -5
if you factor in age and the contract Lee signed, it's not particularly close. I agree with you there on the contract, 18.5 million is really nuts. But i have a nice feeling Dunn will think he deserves 15+ and no way is he worth that. |
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Post by blee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 14:22:09 GMT -5
And how has Lee been better the past 4 years? Lee is just as durable as Dunn has been. Lee has only missed 10 games in the past 4 years, Dunn 15. Dunn does have an advantage in Hr's 166-132 Lee has the advantage in RBI's 448-401 Dunn leads in Runs 412-384 Lee has a huge advantage in the K dept only 301 to Dunn's whopping 722 Dunn has a big advantage in the walk dept 435-222 Lee has a .293 avg the past 4 years compared to Dunns .252 avg. Lee has 53 sb's to Dunns 26 Minor stat here. Dunn's OBP is around .380 for the 4 years and Lee's is close to .355 Based on all that stuff i would take lee over Dunn any day. Dunn his what an avg of 8.5 extra Hr's a year. Dunn k's on avg 105x more a year. 8.5 hr's dont make Dunn a better player then Lee. Now Dunn for 12 million a year then yes he is better, But dunn for more then that a year no. Just my 2 cents, friendly chatter Lee, as I said above, only has more RBI because he has more baserunners in front of him. Why are you blaming Dunn for not taking advantage of opportunities he doesn't get? Lee has more groundouts and flyouts than Dunn. Lee has grounded into 67 double plays the last 4 years compared to Dunn's 34. Which raises a dumb question, why are we comparing types of outs? Why not compare how often these guys make outs, and what they do with their hits? (answer: Dunn smokes Lee in both those categories). If we're comparing Stolen Bases, we should probably mention that Dunn has only 5 CS's the last 4 years compared to Lee's 16. So, despite the fact that Lee steals more bases, Dunn steals at a much higher percentage. The fact is, the categories that Lee is better in (BA, K) are WAY, WAY, WAY less important than the categories where Dunn is better (OBP, SLG). |
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Post by schellis on Mar 23, 2008 15:16:22 GMT -5
I think that Dunn's game has changed. Just look what he did post break last year.
.273/.425/.560 while walking almost as often as he struck out...meaning that his walks stayed about the same and his k's were way down, all while maintaining his power.
He'll never win a gold glove but he was at least close to below average when a real CF was out there. (Hamilton is a RF that played CF same as Bruce would be) Which is better then his normal poor
He's obviously the team leader. For the last few years when there is a young offensive player added to the team who do you read that is hanging out with him and making him comfortable. It isn't Griffey or BP...its always Dunn.
Who's the guy that has for years played hurt, from a broken hand to bum knees. Whos the guy that you never hear complain about where he's hit in the lineup and never really whined about having to have a day off. And even when he didn't like something at least attempted it for the better of the team.
Dunn is a great team player, has leadership qualities, has to be drug off the field, wants to play for the Reds, and is also one of the best power hitters in the game today.
Right now Dunn is worth 15 million a year for 5 years, but I think it will take at least 6. I think if the Reds wait they could tack on a extra 2 million a year. Dunn is very close to becoming a elite level player. If he is allowed to leave all the bashers will miss him when they see what he does for his next team, hopefully for Dunn it won't be the Sox or Yankees. I don't think Dunn is a big city boy.
I would also take Dunn over Lee any day of the week. Dunn is significantly younger and just as productive.
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Post by cincyreds45212 on Mar 23, 2008 15:19:00 GMT -5
Dunn's gonna get at least 15 million a yr...so if we sign him for 4 yr's you are looking at 60 million. It might seem crazy but he could probably get more in the open market. I'd love to sign him for 13 million a yr, but he'd be dumb to sign it considering what he could get if he has a great yr this season
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Post by sabo3b17 on Mar 23, 2008 18:13:31 GMT -5
Off topic Blee but then who do you think should start at ss Keppinger or Gonzalez?
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Post by blee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 19:39:35 GMT -5
Off topic Blee but then who do you think should start at ss Keppinger or Gonzalez? Well, I stumped for the Gonzalez signing before it happened, and I really like what he brings to the table. That said, I think Keppinger has a better bat, and the only way to find out if he has the glove is to play him. So, probably Keppinger. That said, I don't think people realize how good a season Sea Bass had with the bat last year. It's ridiculous that people think of Gonzalez as an offensive liability, and Phillips as a fantastic hitter. Gonzalez's line was .272/.325/.468 Phillips's line was .288/.331/.485 Phillips had 107R, 30HR, and 94RBI. Take Gonzalez's numbers over Phillips's AB's, and he'd have 91R, 26HR, and 91RBI, and he hit in a worse spot in the lineup. I advocated the Gonzalez signing when it happened, and still believe that it was a very good pickup for the Reds. However, Keppinger's bat intrigues me, and I want to see what he can do over a full season. |
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