Dunn or Griffey in '09

[schellis]

I would lock Dunn up for five years with a sixth year option. There is a risk that the contract would look bad, but I think that Dunn is going to prove himself worthy of it.

Griffey isn't getting any younger, and he's blocking Bruce.

As for Crawford I would love to see the Reds get him to play CF, but I believe that there would be alot of teams out there trying to pick up his services.

[blee2525]

Apr 14, 2008 22:37:44 GMT -5 jsmith said:

Now here is my dream scenario, take the money saved from not signing Dunn and sign Carl Crawford. I heard a while back he is going to be a free agent..think on ESPN board...so not sure if it is true. He is one of my favorite players in the game, and would be the perfect lead off hitter that we need.

Well, you were lied to, my friend. The Rays hold option years on Carl Crawford through 2010. If you think they're declining those for any reason short of catastrophic injury, well, I have some land in China I'd like to sell you. It's right behind the Great Wall. On the good side.

These "take the money saved and sign...." arguments are ridiculous. Last year, it was trade Dunn and "take the money saved and sign Soriano or Lee." Those guys signed 6 and 8 year deals for $5mil more than Dunn annually, they're both worse hitters than Dunn, and they're both on the wrong side of 30. You absolutely, 100%, will not sign a better player for less money bidding against 29 other teams than you can get by locking Dunn up before he hits the open market. Simple economics.

By the way, if you want to try to cook up a "take the money saved and sign...." scenario, here's your real free agent pool for this offseason (or, at least, the only guys you'd want out of the free agent pool):

Mike Cameron
Bobby Abreu (Older than Dunn, not as good, and declining. Exactly the type of player most of you want)
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Corey Patterson (!!!)
Garrett Anderson (Older, worse than Dunn, and declining)
Pat Burrell (Dunn-lite, and older)
Raul Ibanez
Manny Ramirez (Boston holds a team option. No idea if they'll exercise it)
Moises Alou
Vladimir Guerrero (If you think the Angels don't re-sign him, you're nuts)

That's about it.

[jsmith]

Thanks for the info about Crawford, and I do understand the way baseball economics work--why I called it my dream scenario. You are correct on none of the free agents you list being any better option on Dunn. Still not sure I would spend what it will take to sign him long term though..tough baseball decision for the front office. I just happen to prefer faster and better defenders in the outfield.

[Lark11]

There are a lot of ways to go about it if we choose not to keep Dunn and Griffey.

We could go the big dollar free agent route, we could promote from within, we could use someone already on the 25 man roster, or we could target a young guy from another organization.

If it were up to me, I would've gone with Hamilton and Bruce, but that's out the window. So, if we choose not to retain Dunn or Griffey, then here are a few options.

1) We could promote from within. Even as soon as 2009, Danny Dorn, Todd Frazier, or Drew Stubbs could be ready to contribute.

2) We could move Edwin to leftfield, where his defense wouldn't kill us and he might be able to focus solely on his offense.

3) We could target an inexpensive option via trade and use the savings to improve somewhere else. We could target a Reggie Willits, Jayson Werth, Matt Murton, or Joey Gathright type.

I really like all of those guys, but Murton might be another Jeff Keppinger type with more pop. The Cubs don't seem to want him, but not sure if we could get him from within the division.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, that's for sure. I'm not sure there is a more defining move to the future of the organization.

[missbaseball]

I think between the two Dunn has a better chance to be here next year. Jr is 38 with a $16 million option and getting older. he is still a good RF but I only see him kept is the Reds don't pick up the option then sign him for less.

Dunn future here depends on this year. If he proves he is improving and cares about more then just seeing how far he hits the ball over the course of the season.

They have a lot of options for the OF coming up though the system in Bruce. Stubbs may be ready soon. Chris Dickerson according to the scouts I have heard my have the best defense in CF off the minor league options. There is also Jerry Gill too among others.

[redvol]

Good Poll!

I think the front office signs Dunn and lets Jr. walk or trades him at the deadline. Personally, I would keep Jr. for one more year and let Dunn walk.

Yes, his obp is great and he scores runs......but I don't think that is worth a 4 yr & >$60 million commitment in today's salary structure. You can tell from watching a game pitched by a reasonably good pitcher that pitchers fear Griffey. Above average pitchers don't fear Dunn because they know he has too many holes in his swing.

I think its time to turn the page on both but to get one more yr. out of Griffey so the line-up doesn't have such a gaping hole in 2009.

[blee2525]

As I've said many times, there are legitimate criticisms of Dunn. Then, there are people who make sh!t up to fit the conclusions they've already drawn and hope people don't check them on it.

This crap fits into the latter category:

Apr 16, 2008 14:25:04 GMT -5 redvol said:

Yes, his obp is great and he scores runs......but I don't think that is worth a 4 yr & >$60 million commitment in today's salary structure. You can tell from watching a game pitched by a reasonably good pitcher that pitchers fear Griffey. Above average pitchers don't fear Dunn because they know he has too many holes in his swing.

You know how I know that you made this up? Because I actually ran the numbers. And what you wrote there is the opposite of true.

I actually added up Dunn's results against all pitchers who finished in the top 16 in the NL or top 14 in the AL in ERA the last 3 years. I limited it to guy's Dunn has 10 or more AB's against to make the math a little easier. You would expect that Dunn's performance would drop against these pitchers just like everybody else. After all, these guys don't walk as many or give up as many HR's, and strike out more guys. That's why they're good pitchers.

So, how much does Dunn's performance drop against those pitchers? Well, funny thing about that.

Dunn's career numbers: .247BA/.378OBP/.516SLG
Dunn vs. "The Aces": .253BA/.378OBP/.532SLG

So, if above average pitchers don't "fear" Dunn, perhaps they should start.

[powerofcincy]

Remember with all of his walks Dunn has a ridiculous OBP...and he hasn't struck out nearly as much thus far (too lazy to look up the numbers, but I know from watching).