Dunn or Griffey in '09

[The Duke]

Now some fans cringe at the thought of giving Griffey $16.5 million next year, but you have to remember that even if we don't pick him up he has a $4 mil buyout, so really its only $12.5 mil in new money for next year. Dunn is long term or nothing, while Jr can have his option picked up for one year and then his giant contract is gone forever. If you can convince Griff to move to left, you have an outfield of:

LF: Griffey
CF: Hopper/Patterson
RF: Bruce

and a 2010 outfield of:

LF: Frazier/Francisco/Valaika/Dorn/Free Agent
CF: Stubbs
RF: Bruce

I am just hesitant to give Dunn a long term deal as he has not worked as the clubs big time power threat. He gets the #'s, but what has the team accomplished, and how many walks with RISP do we really need? Not to mention that Dunn will be a type A FA and bring two picks back in return letting him go.

I am of a mind to let him and his big time salary go at this point and go with this lineup in 2009:

1. Votto, 1B
2. Keppinger, SS
3. Griffey, LF
4. Phillips, 2B
5. Bruce, RF
6. EE, 3B
7. Patterson/Hopper/FA, CF
8. Bako, C

and this lineup in 2010:

1. Stubbs, CF
2. Keppinger, SS
3. Bruce, RF
4. Phillips, 2B
5. Votto, 1B
6. Frazier, LF
7. Francisco, 3B
8. Tatum/Bako/FA. C

[Lark11]

It's an interesting question and one that needs to be answered by the front office.

Personally, I'd like to see the Reds turn the page. I voted for them both to go.

My dream outfield for 2009 had Hamilton in left, Bruce in right, and a legitimate leadoff hitter in center. That said, I'd still like to see the Reds bring in a new leftfielder for 2009 and hand the rightfield job to Bruce.

I've never liked Dunn's risk in a long-term contract and I still don't, so I'd rather let him walk for draft picks. In addition, I think the Reds need to put a renewed emphasis on team defense. Rarely does a very poor defensive team make it to the postseason. For me, Dunn and Griffey are both liabilities in that regard.

Still, given the ineptitude of the offense so far this year, it's clear that we'd need to get a good leftfielder to offset the lost offensive production. I'm not sure who will be available, but the Reds need to take advantage of the departures of Dunn and Griffey to FINALLY restructure the team into a form that provides greater opportunity for success. By that, I mean a better team defense and a lineup that actually has room for a bona fide leadoff hitter.

[The Duke]

The reason I like Griffey's option year is that it is just one year. If the Reds are going to have a legit LF'er and let them both go then they are going to have to pay out the nose on a long term deal for a big time LF bat, and I just don't think there will be one. Griffey should be able to provide average defense in left field next year I think, and at the very least be a step up from Dunn, and it is only for one year.

Stubbs could conceivabley start in CF next year and be that legit leadoff man, but he'd have to continue his hot start through the year and end this year in AAA and impress a lot of people in ST next year. He has a GG caliber glove for CF, coupled with Bruce in right and all of a suddent 2/3 of that outfield defense is plus. More likely, Stubbs will be CF opening day 2010, ending this year in AA, and in 2009 starting in AA and moving up to AAA around the all-star break or maybe a little earlier.

Even though Griffey may be declining, it's the one year contract that makes him a viable option and he can still swing the bat. Then in 2010, one of Frazier/Francisco/Dorn/Valaika/Waring should be ready to take over in LF.

[powerofcincy]

I said keep both, tentatively. It all depends on the numbers at the end of the year. If they keep up their current paces, my vote changes to lose both. But if we can get good run production out of them again, I have no problem with keeping them as veteran leadership and big bats in the lineup.

[dukecrunchybagel]

What I'd like to see happen is to keep Dunn and let Junior go.

What I think will happen is that we keep Junior and let Dunn walk (or more likely trade him during the fire sale.)

[The Duke]

If we keep Dunn, it is a minimum 4 year commitment, and he may demand more years as well. If we could keep either for one year alone, I would choose Dunn, but Griffey = 1 year only while Dunn => 4 years.

[powerofcincy]

Remember, the average Reds fan (i.e., the dad who takes the kids to Great American twice a year and never watches another game) want to see Ken Griffey, Jr. on the field because A) he hits home runs, theoretically, and B) there's sentimentality as a kid of Grffey, Sr., who Dad remembers well.

Knowing this, Reds management will PROBABLY choose the combination that fills the most seats. That is, I think, to keep both, because most amateur fans' affection for Dunn has developed too (40 HR every year will do that if you don't watch every game).

So I think it's reasonable to assume Dunn's back for 4 or so, and Griffey for maybe 1, then he either goes back to Seattle or retires.

[The Duke]

Bruce is not a CF. he is a pure RF, and theoutfield defense will be baaaaad if it involves both Griffey and Dunn next year.

[awnawboi21]

Apr 14, 2008 14:42:22 GMT -5 The Duke said:

Bruce is not a CF. he is a pure RF, and theoutfield defense will be baaaaad if it involves both Griffey and Dunn next year.

This is exactly why I picked to keep Dunn but lose Griff.

Griffey has shown an unwillingness to give up his priviledges...Dunn isn't in the way right now.

If we could move Griffey to LF I would re-think it, but I don't think he'd go for it.

[tmil23]

Lose both of them. Grab a right handed OF out of free agency to balance the lineup out more. Start Bruce in RF and be happy with the 4 comp picks and roughly $14M in savings (subtracting out the cost of the FA OF bat).

[blee2525]

OK, Obviously, I'm a Dunn guy. I don't think that should shock anybody here.

But I can't let this slide, Duke.

Apr 14, 2008 7:50:41 GMT -5 The Duke said:

I am just hesitant to give Dunn a long term deal as he has not worked as the clubs big time power threat. He gets the #'s, but what has the team accomplished, and how many walks with RISP do we really need?

By your logic, Aaron Harang has not worked as the club's #1 starter. He gets the numbers, but what has the team accomplished? Brandon Phillips has not worked out as the club's second baseman, what has the team accomplished?

The reason the team hasn't won for the past 7 years is the pitching staff, which routinely ranks among the bottom 2 in the NL. Adam Dunn, at last check, does not pitch. I'd argue that Dunn was the only reason we stayed out of the basement most of those years.

And the "walks with RISP" point is pretty much flat-out wrong. Take a wild guess which Red drove in the highest percentage of the baserunners in front of him (counting runners in all plate appearances, and subtracting the times he drove himself in via the home run).

Did you guess Phillips? Good contact guy, decent clutch reputation, must be him, right?
Nope. In fact, he was pretty bad in that department. He drove in 64 of the 461 baserunners he had in front of him, for 13.9%.

How about Griffey? Professional Hitter. Veteran Presence.
He plated 63 of the 413 baserunners he had, for 15.3%

Edwin, then? .300+ batting average with RISP. Clutch!
Not quite. 60 for 372, 16.1%

Couldn't possibly be the low BA with RISP guy who walks all the time. Not possible.
Dunn: 66 for 395, 16.7%

The reason Dunn has a low number of RBI relative to his HR's has nothing to do with situational hitting, walks with RISP, or anything relating to "clutch." He simply doesn't get the opportunities that the top RBI guys in the NL get. Dunn was 10th in the NL in RBI this season. Where would you guess he ranked among the top 10 RBI guys in number of baserunners in front of him? I'll give you a hint: dead last. The only guy within 30 baserunners was Prince Fielder who had 10 more HR's than Dunn, but only 13 more RBI. I don't hear Brewers' fans b!tching about solo shots and walks, though.

In fact, if you give him the same amount of baserunners as the guys in front of him, he out-RBI's David Wright, Carlos Lee, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe, and ties Carlos Beltran for 5th in the NL. Hell, if you would have just swapped him and Phillips in the lineup, Dunn drives in 117 runs, good for 6th in the League.

Worries about how he'll age, draft pick compensation, and a contingency for his absence are all solid reasons to argue against giving Dunn an extension. The stuff you wrote in the paragraph above isn't.

[The Duke]

I meant Dunn has not worked because he rely's way too much on the long ball to drive in runs. He is not a run producer, he is a home run hitter. If Dunn had EE's clutch hitting over the past couple of years he would be averaging over 120 rbis

[blee2525]

Apr 14, 2008 20:10:22 GMT -5 The Duke said:

I meant Dunn has not worked because he rely's way too much on the long ball to drive in runs. He is not a run producer, he is a home run hitter. If Dunn had EE's clutch hitting over the past couple of years he would be averaging over 120 rbis

No, he wouldn't. Dunn drives in a higher percentage of the runners on base in front of him than Edwin does. If Dunn hit like EE with runners on base, he'd drive in 16.1% of his runners instead of 16.7%, and he'd have even less RBI.

Again, Dunn had only 395 baserunners in front of him last year. Other than Fielder, no one in the top 10 in the NL in RBI had less than 432. On the high end, Carlos Lee had 490, Ryan Howard had 501, and Garrett Atkins had 520. That's why Dunn doesn't get to 120 RBI. Brandon Phillips had 461 baserunners in front of him last year, and only had 93 RBI. If Dunn got 461 baserunners, he'd have 117 RBI (0.167*461 + 40).

[bkleo504]

As of right now...I'm in favor of keeping Dunn and losing Griff.

Unfortunately, it's definitely a tricky situation with Dunn. You want Dunn to prove that he can earn his money and have a career year, but this would drive his price up really high in the open market. So we'll wait to see what happens with Dunn.

I've always respected Griffey A LOT, he didn't do roids and played the game it was meant to be played even if he didn't always have the best attitude. But, we're going to have to move on, and it's a shame he didn't really come up big for the Reds like we hoped. Hopefully we can have a clean break without issues, and I'd love to see him back in Seattle where he wants to retire. Could be great as a DH too.

[jsmith]

I would say as of right now I would keep Griffey for one more year and let Dunn walk.

Now here is my dream scenario, take the money saved from not signing Dunn and sign Carl Crawford. I heard a while back he is going to be a free agent..think on ESPN board...so not sure if it is true. He is one of my favorite players in the game, and would be the perfect lead off hitter that we need.

I think under no circumstance do we need to resign C. Patterson. If he has a great year for us this year, then let some other team make the mistake of overpaying him to a long term contract. The other option is he is not good this year, and then we should let him go anyway.

Outfield next year of Crawford, Bruce, and Griffey. When Griffey's contract runs out in 2009 hopefully Stubbs or another prospect will be ready to step in.