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Post by powerofcincy on Apr 12, 2008 23:18:31 GMT -5
This was a thread I started over on...those...other...message boards about a week ago when it became evident that we still cannot bat in runners in critical situtions. It's become painfully obvious in the current series, in which, in 2 games, we have had 23 men on base and scored a total of 3 runs.
Problem is, I can't figure out why. Is it really that much harder to get a base hit when there is a man on third than it is when no one is on? Obviously the pitch selection will be different, but come on, why aren't we addressing this problem and correcting it? If we could get the offense rolling like we know they are capable (i.e., the 12-run game), and the pitching remains solid, we represent a pretty significant threat. Until then, we have to throw shutouts daily, and even then we may not win.
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Post by stone19uk on Apr 13, 2008 11:52:12 GMT -5
I think the problem is that we have guys that swing for the fences on every pitch. Guy's have also have been first pitch swinging with the base loaded. This type of hitting makes the opposing pitchers job somewhat easier, and that's a problem. We need to make the opp teams pitcher work. With the bases loaded or men in scoring position we don't need a HR. Guys in this lineup need to understand when we need a HR and when a base hit would work just fine. With guys on or a 2 strike count that what the pitcher give you and shorten up and look to make contact rather then swing for the fences and pop one up or strike out. This team is more then capable off scoring runs, they just need to understand the situation a little better.
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Post by blee2525 on Apr 13, 2008 12:12:46 GMT -5
It's bad luck, plain and simple. Law of averages. They've had 2 games where they left a ton of runners on base. They're going to have games where they drive in most of their runners.
Can we stop writing revisionist history about the Reds' problems on offense last year? It had nothing to do with "situational hitting" or "not getting runners in" or anything like that.
'07 Reds with nobody on: .268/.329/.436/.768
'07 Reds with runners on: .265/.343/.437/.780
'07 Reds with RISP: .263/.355/.422/.776
The '07 Reds, like virtually everybody else who has ever played the game, are essentially the exact same hitters regardless of the ROB situation. Here was the problem with the 2007 Reds:
'07 Reds # of AB's with runners on: 2430, 8th in NL
'07 Reds # of AB's with RISP: 1382, 9th in NL
The only reason the Reds weren't near the bottom of the NL in Runs Scored is those Home Runs everybody seems to hate.
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Post by powerofcincy on Apr 13, 2008 17:10:17 GMT -5
Well fortunately these are NOT the 2007 Reds and I don't see how it's revisionist to address a chronic problem unless you don't want it corrected. Fact of the matter is, we left 32 men on base and scored 4 runs in 3 games, and I don't believe any of those were homers. So obviously the problem is not getting on base, we do plenty of that, the problem IS situational hitting. There IS a definite disparity between our batting with men on and without, and I fail to see how the 2007 Reds stats in that area justify it.
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Post by Lark11 on Apr 14, 2008 13:34:44 GMT -5
Regardless of how you want to characterize our offensive woes, either as a failure to drive in runners in scoring position OR a failure to get enough runners into scoring position, I think it is becoming more clear that the Reds aren't a great offensive ball club.
The Reds were 9th in the NL in Runs scored in 2006, 7th in 2007, and we are currently 11th in 2008.
I'm beginning to think that GABP has something to do with it. Bill James wrote something once about the Red Sox and Fenway Park that seems applicable here. James wrote that a team's ballpark can mask the real strengths and weaknesses of that team. So, the media beating to death the idea that GABP is a hitter's paradise and pitcher's go there to die, may create an image that the Reds offense is better than it truly is.
The notion that we have a lot of power hitters and that the Ballpark is the new Coors field doesn't outweigh the fact that we just aren't scoring enough runs these days.
It's clear that the pitching needed to be addressed, but are we overvaluing our offense???
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, but we need to be better than middle of the pack in runs scored in order to be serious contenders.
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Post by powerofcincy on Apr 14, 2008 14:20:30 GMT -5
It's possible that the weather is having an effect (we've lost all the games with questionable weather), and it might even be a good thing.
If you think about it, the Reds always come out with a bang and score a lot of runs early on, then die. Maybe this year, we're starting out slow, then we'll pick up momentum and start scoring.
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Post by dukecrunchybagel on Apr 14, 2008 14:46:56 GMT -5
Face it, this team is little changed from last year, and one of the big problems is any ability to manufacture a rally.
Much like last year's team, this team has little speed, poor bunting ability, and a three-run-homer mentality.
Krivsky did nothing to change that, so Baker's only hope is to use the Earl Weaver approach, and hope EE & Dunn get out of their slumps so we can put up a three to six in the lineup who can belt them out.
Frankly, I find the generally poor fielding on this team, much more alarming than the slumping bats. I figure Dunn and EE will eventually wake up.
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Post by stone19uk on Apr 14, 2008 15:33:46 GMT -5
In the future I would like to see our lineup anchored around Dunn. Dunn can hit it out of any ballpark rather it be LCF, straight away CF, or RCF. Dunn is one of two true power hitters in this lineup. Jr. is the other and his career is all but over for the most part as a Red IMO. Then we have guys like Phillips, EE, and Votto, all of whom have HR power but can offer more of an .avg to go with it. I think you can add Bruce to that list when he's a Red. I like CPatt at the top he's a guys that can produce runs many different ways. And Kepp in the 2 hole is a hit machine.
Overall I would like to see a Reds lineup that would consist of guys more like BP. Guys who can hit for .avg, .280 or better, has some power, and can run. GABP can make a HR hitter out of anyone so let's get some guys who can hit. Which I think we have some guys who can do the things I've mentioned, it's just a matter of getting them some PT. Votto and Bruce are the two who I really like in the future for the Reds. I want to see EE be the man but I'm not sure about him being a Red for as long as I would like to see BP, Votto, or Bruce be Reds. I like the thought of having guys who can hit .280 20+HR 80+RBI's and 20+SB's. Phillips has proven he can do this, Votto, and Bruce all are capable of doing this. Until they prove other wise Votto and Bruce can be the next 30/30 guys for the Reds. That's saying a lot and Votto or Bruce may never reach the 30/30 mark but their the 2 young guys in our system that are capable or hitting 30HR's and stealing 30 bags. I think our lineup looks better more towards the future with Jr. in the AL and Dunn batting 4th surrounded by guys like BP, Kepp, CPAtt, Votto, Bruce and EE. If EE and CPatt stick around. In not then plug in Stubbs, Rosales, Waring, or Francisco. We have the talent to make it happen.
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