Post by bobroberts on Jan 10, 2009 18:15:26 GMT -5
Not necessarily fantasy busts, but here are some players who have seen a decline in their fantasy numbers over the past few years.
Hitters
Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Since flirting with the batter's Triple Crown in 2005, D-Lee has suffered a broken wrist and a major power outage. Over the past two seasons, the 12-year veteran has hit an average of 21 home runs per season, down from a career-high 46 long balls in '05. When compared to the previous season, Lee's groundball-to-fly ball ratio went up 35 points, while his fly-ball rate is down 5.7 points. The former batting champ appears headed the wrong way; he lacks the power numbers that most owners require from their corner infielders.
Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
The Captain no longer is a statistical leader. The 34-year-old has watched his home runs decline in each of the last four years, and he saw a steep drop in doubles in 2008. Sure, he should give you a .300 average, but that is becoming especially tenuous. He's also attempting fewer stolen bases, and he's at the age when speed fades. Beware of overvaluing him because of his name and team.
Miguel Tejada, SS, Houston Astros
Tejada was firing on all cylinders early last season, only to end it running on fumes; he hit only three home runs in the second half. Miggy finished 2008 with his lowest totals in home runs (13) and RBIs (66) since 1999. He's also losing patience at the plate. The former MVP appears to be in freefall; his slugging percentage has gone down each season since 2004. A mid-2007 wrist injury might take some of the blame, except that he hit 10 homers in the month following his return. At this stage, Tejada's big name is only worth a cheap investment.
Michael Young, SS, Texas Rangers
Last season, Young finished outside the top four in batting average among shortstops for the first time since 2004. In his first two seasons at the position, Young averaged 23 home runs per year, but that has dwindled to 11.67 round-trippers through the last three. Over the last four seasons, Young's strikeout rate has gone up 4 percent. Young was once a batting average ace with pop; his average should bounce back modestly, but he has clearly regressed.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
In 2008, Vlad tied a career low in batting average (.303) and set new lows in home runs (27) and RBIs (91) for any season with at least 400 at-bats. Guerrero's nose-to-toes strike zone might be getting him in trouble; last season he posted his highest strikeout rate since 2001. Also notable: Vlad has averaged just 3.5 swipes over the last two seasons after pilfering 14.33 per year in the previous three. Vladdy Daddy could be slipping to No. 2 fantasy outfielder status, but he is unlikely to fall that far on draft day.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle Mariners
Ichiro, now at age 35, can still run but appears to be slowing down at the plate. In 2008, Ichiro exceeded 40 stolen bases for the second time in three seasons, but he hit .311, the second lowest batting average of his career. While he has never carried a big stick, Ichiro posted a career-low slugging percentage (.386). Although his mark is still solid, the mechanical hitter's line-drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons. His average could rebound a bit, but it may be time to re-evaluate Ichiro in the coming seasons.
Hideki Matsui, OF/DH, New York Yankees
After beating the streak for consecutive games played to begin a major league career, Matsui (knee) has played in fewer than 95 games in two of the last three seasons and enters 2009 having undergone offseason knee surgery. Last season, Matsui set career lows in slugging percentage (.424) and home run-to-fly ball rate (9.0 percent). His groundball and fly-ball rates are also headed in opposite directions. The biggest alarm is Matsui's increase of swings outside the strike zone. Matsui has been difficult to count on lately and should be viewed as a reserve fantasy outfielder.
Pitchers
Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
Sure, he's still the best pitcher in fantasy baseball, but the signs exist. In each of the last three years, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has slipped, and his rate of walks per nine innings has swelled. Santana also posted his highest hit and line-drive rates since he became a full-time starter. These notes point to a possible risk, but he should still be the first hurler taken. Just be aware that his days as the premier fantasy ace are numbered.
Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago Cubs
There are several negative indicators attached to Big Z. Last season was the first season since 2002 that Zambrano, due to shoulder issues, pitched less than 200 innings. The high mileage may be catching up; his average fastball velocity has dropped over the last four seasons. Meanwhile, the contact rate of opposing hitters has gone up. Last season, Zambrano posted his lowest K/9 rate (6.20) as a full-time starter and has declined in that area in each of the last three seasons. Zambrano is better measured as a No. 2 option - or worse.
Aaron Harang, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Coming off consecutive 200-strikeout seasons, Harang simply imploded. He was unable to keep the ball from leaving park (a ridiculous 1.71 HR/9 rate) at home or on the road. Meanwhile, Harang's K/9 dropped to 7.47, a full point decline from his monstrous 2007. However, in September, he presented the case for a strikeout-reduced rebound. Coming off three straight seasons of more than 200 innings pitched and a four-week DL stint, Harang will have his draft day doubters presented with potential value as No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter.
Francisco Rodriguez, CL, New York Mets
Perhaps it's nitpicking, but despite making history in 2008, Rodriguez has seen a decline in K/9 in every season, from an unreal 13.18 in 2004 to a career-low 10.14 K/9 last year. That's still pretty good. The velocities of K-Rod's fastball and slider have been declining, which he claims is by design to help his improving changeup. Still, one has to question if the high price of admission is worth it; saves can be much cheaper to acquire. The move to the NL could offset any noted signs, but his unorthodox delivery may eventually catch up to him.
www.kffl.com/article.php/99069/515
Hitters
Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Since flirting with the batter's Triple Crown in 2005, D-Lee has suffered a broken wrist and a major power outage. Over the past two seasons, the 12-year veteran has hit an average of 21 home runs per season, down from a career-high 46 long balls in '05. When compared to the previous season, Lee's groundball-to-fly ball ratio went up 35 points, while his fly-ball rate is down 5.7 points. The former batting champ appears headed the wrong way; he lacks the power numbers that most owners require from their corner infielders.
Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
The Captain no longer is a statistical leader. The 34-year-old has watched his home runs decline in each of the last four years, and he saw a steep drop in doubles in 2008. Sure, he should give you a .300 average, but that is becoming especially tenuous. He's also attempting fewer stolen bases, and he's at the age when speed fades. Beware of overvaluing him because of his name and team.
Miguel Tejada, SS, Houston Astros
Tejada was firing on all cylinders early last season, only to end it running on fumes; he hit only three home runs in the second half. Miggy finished 2008 with his lowest totals in home runs (13) and RBIs (66) since 1999. He's also losing patience at the plate. The former MVP appears to be in freefall; his slugging percentage has gone down each season since 2004. A mid-2007 wrist injury might take some of the blame, except that he hit 10 homers in the month following his return. At this stage, Tejada's big name is only worth a cheap investment.
Michael Young, SS, Texas Rangers
Last season, Young finished outside the top four in batting average among shortstops for the first time since 2004. In his first two seasons at the position, Young averaged 23 home runs per year, but that has dwindled to 11.67 round-trippers through the last three. Over the last four seasons, Young's strikeout rate has gone up 4 percent. Young was once a batting average ace with pop; his average should bounce back modestly, but he has clearly regressed.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
In 2008, Vlad tied a career low in batting average (.303) and set new lows in home runs (27) and RBIs (91) for any season with at least 400 at-bats. Guerrero's nose-to-toes strike zone might be getting him in trouble; last season he posted his highest strikeout rate since 2001. Also notable: Vlad has averaged just 3.5 swipes over the last two seasons after pilfering 14.33 per year in the previous three. Vladdy Daddy could be slipping to No. 2 fantasy outfielder status, but he is unlikely to fall that far on draft day.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle Mariners
Ichiro, now at age 35, can still run but appears to be slowing down at the plate. In 2008, Ichiro exceeded 40 stolen bases for the second time in three seasons, but he hit .311, the second lowest batting average of his career. While he has never carried a big stick, Ichiro posted a career-low slugging percentage (.386). Although his mark is still solid, the mechanical hitter's line-drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons. His average could rebound a bit, but it may be time to re-evaluate Ichiro in the coming seasons.
Hideki Matsui, OF/DH, New York Yankees
After beating the streak for consecutive games played to begin a major league career, Matsui (knee) has played in fewer than 95 games in two of the last three seasons and enters 2009 having undergone offseason knee surgery. Last season, Matsui set career lows in slugging percentage (.424) and home run-to-fly ball rate (9.0 percent). His groundball and fly-ball rates are also headed in opposite directions. The biggest alarm is Matsui's increase of swings outside the strike zone. Matsui has been difficult to count on lately and should be viewed as a reserve fantasy outfielder.
Pitchers
Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
Sure, he's still the best pitcher in fantasy baseball, but the signs exist. In each of the last three years, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has slipped, and his rate of walks per nine innings has swelled. Santana also posted his highest hit and line-drive rates since he became a full-time starter. These notes point to a possible risk, but he should still be the first hurler taken. Just be aware that his days as the premier fantasy ace are numbered.
Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago Cubs
There are several negative indicators attached to Big Z. Last season was the first season since 2002 that Zambrano, due to shoulder issues, pitched less than 200 innings. The high mileage may be catching up; his average fastball velocity has dropped over the last four seasons. Meanwhile, the contact rate of opposing hitters has gone up. Last season, Zambrano posted his lowest K/9 rate (6.20) as a full-time starter and has declined in that area in each of the last three seasons. Zambrano is better measured as a No. 2 option - or worse.
Aaron Harang, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Coming off consecutive 200-strikeout seasons, Harang simply imploded. He was unable to keep the ball from leaving park (a ridiculous 1.71 HR/9 rate) at home or on the road. Meanwhile, Harang's K/9 dropped to 7.47, a full point decline from his monstrous 2007. However, in September, he presented the case for a strikeout-reduced rebound. Coming off three straight seasons of more than 200 innings pitched and a four-week DL stint, Harang will have his draft day doubters presented with potential value as No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter.
Francisco Rodriguez, CL, New York Mets
Perhaps it's nitpicking, but despite making history in 2008, Rodriguez has seen a decline in K/9 in every season, from an unreal 13.18 in 2004 to a career-low 10.14 K/9 last year. That's still pretty good. The velocities of K-Rod's fastball and slider have been declining, which he claims is by design to help his improving changeup. Still, one has to question if the high price of admission is worth it; saves can be much cheaper to acquire. The move to the NL could offset any noted signs, but his unorthodox delivery may eventually catch up to him.
www.kffl.com/article.php/99069/515
