Fantasy bust players of 2009

[bobroberts]

Who do you guys see as bust next year? There's always a handful of players drafted in the high rounds who turn out to be duds(I'm still mad about drafting Travis Haffer in the 3rd round last year). So who's it going to be this year? My thoughts,

Matt Holliday- Going from hitter friendly Coors field to the pitcher friendly A's field will take a massive toll on Hollidays fantasy numbers. Also, I'm concerned with Oakland's lineup, who's going to protect Holliday? Bobby Crosby? Chris Denorfia? Matt Murton? Pitchers are going to pitch around Holliday and deal with the bums hitting after him. I think Holliday belongs in the 6th or 7th round, but his average draft position will be in the late second/early third round.

Nate McCloth- I had McCloth as my number 2 sleeper pick last year and he didn't disappoint, but most of his production came in the first half of last year and he had a huge drop off in the second half. McCloth is better suited as a leadoff hitter, but in the second half of last year, the Pirates insisted on hitting him 3rd and his fantasy value dropped. McCloth will be drafted a few rounds higher than he should based on his numbers last year, but I don't see him replicating those numbers this year.

[Lark11]

Well, I haven't done any research on it yet, but here are a few guys just off the top of my head.

Ryan Ludwick - One year wonder leaps to mind.

Travis Hafner - Not sure if he qualifies as a bust after his down year, but I have serious concerns about the structural integrity of his shoulder. I'm not sure he'll ever get back to what he was.

C.C. Sabathia & A.J. Burnett - Again, maybe "bust" isn't the right word, but I don't see them living up to expectations. C.C.'s 2008 workload bordered on the criminal, while Burnett has never struck me as a big game pitcher.

Edinson Volquez - He's closer to what he was in the 2nd half than the 1st.

[bobroberts]

I think you're spot on about Volquez being a bust, he'll have a solid year, but he'll be drafted around the 6th round, which is way to high for him. As a rule, i don't touch pitchers until the 10th round since i prefer to build a monster offensive and and find value pitchers after that i.e Demster/Saunders/Duchscherer etc. Now if a pitcher unexpectedly slips down the draft board i may take him, for instance if Tim Lincecum falls to the 3rd round, I wouldn't hesitate to pick him up.

[schellis]

Tim Lincecum. His work load last year at a young age scares me a bit.

Holliday because he's moving from a hitters park to a pitchers park, but he's a excellent buy low candidate too in keeper leagues. For instance in my pay keeper league I traded him around mid-season last year for Beckett, Kemp and DeJesus....and the team that got him just traded him for Garza/Hermida

Teixiera. People will see the dollars, but Tex really has never put up a season to really warrent that kind of money. he'll be solid but I really don't think he'll be much better then Votto.

CC Sabathia got really abused in the playoff push by the Brewers, but he's a big guy so I think he can handle that. I worry that he's going to get bigger as the years go and become the second coming of Colon. For this year I think he's far closer to the 2008 Cleveland version then the 2008 Brewers version.

AJ Burnett always seems to fall apart after a 200 inning season.

Milton Bradley if he goes to any NL team

Justin Verlander. he's been in the top 10 in pitcher abuse points for the last two years according to Roto Authority.

www.rotoauthority.com/2008/09/pitcher-abuse-p.html

[starpower25]

While I will agree Mark Teixeira is not worth 23 million a year he is worth a huge contract and I dont agree Votto will come anywhere close to his numbers. I mean look at what this guy has been doing as a switch hitter at a prime power position. Here is his stats for 6 year career.

2008 .303 avg 33 hr's 121 RBI .1002 OPS
2007 .295 avg 37 hr's 105 RBI .995 OPS
2006 .292 avg 33 hr's 110 RBI .886 OPS
2005 .301 avg 43 hr's 143 RBI .954 OPS
2004 .281 avg 38 hr's 112 RBI .929 OPS
2003 .259 avg 26 hr's 89 RBI .811 OPS

This guy is a STUD no question and I think he puts up even better numbers in NY hitting cleanup with those players around him.
I think Votto is also a great young hitter who did have a better rookie year then Teixeira but will never put up these types of numbers. Votto I think hits for a better average but never drives in these types of runs. I think Votto will be this type of player most years.

.310 avg 25 hr's 90 RBI

I can live with that. For the money Votto is a better value as well but Teixeira can flat hit.

The problem is he can do jsut what he has always done and can never live up to that contract because that money is crazy ! He is a sure fire HOF though