Post by Lark11 on Nov 14, 2024 17:19:33 GMT -5
In an article today, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic notes the Twins payroll problems:
Also adding to the Twins' payroll crunch is the fact that the team is up for sale, meaning that minimizing costs is probably of heightened importance until a sale goes through, leading to greater incentive to cut payroll for 2025.
Gleeman then notes the top 2 trade candidates to help alleviate this problem. First up is Chris Paddack:
Second up is Christian Vazquez and, hell, we could use a quality backup catcher, especially one who frames well and helps bolster the pitching staff:
I suppose the question becomes, could we pry loose CF Emmanuel Rodriguez by taking on one or both of these questionable/bad contracts to help the Twins alleviate their payroll problem? Of course, we'd have to include a warm body or two going back the other way, but obviously the more bad money we take on the lower the quality of player we'd have to send in return.
We need better hitters in the outfield. I'd be pretty happy with an up-the=middle contingent of Elly at short, McLain at second, and Emmanuel in center.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/5908568/2024/11/14/twins-offseason-trades-players-carlos-correa/
"2. Ownership refusing to raise payroll after slashing it from $160 million to $130 million, and a roster that projects to cost over $130 million as is, gives the front office no money to make meaningful changes."
"2. Ownership refusing to raise payroll after slashing it from $160 million to $130 million, and a roster that projects to cost over $130 million as is, gives the front office no money to make meaningful changes."
Also adding to the Twins' payroll crunch is the fact that the team is up for sale, meaning that minimizing costs is probably of heightened importance until a sale goes through, leading to greater incentive to cut payroll for 2025.
Gleeman then notes the top 2 trade candidates to help alleviate this problem. First up is Chris Paddack:
1. Chris Paddack, SP
Chris Paddack will make $7.5 million in the last year of his contract, which is roughly what a back-end starter would get in free agency. But the Twins aren’t positioned to pay market rate when they have younger, cheaper and potentially better options to fill the final rotation spot behind a front four of Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson.
Paddack had a handful of impressive starts in his comeback from a second Tommy John surgery, but he was ineffective overall with a 4.99 ERA and 14 homers allowed in 88 1/3 innings before missing the second half with a forearm strain. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle in their first post-surgery season, but Paddack hasn’t recorded a better-than-average ERA since 2019.
Right now, he’d be blocking David Festa, with Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris next in line. Moving to the bullpen could make sense with Paddack’s injury history and the velocity jump he displayed there in September 2023, but it’s not certain he’d be happy with the switch and paying $7.5 million for an unproven reliever wouldn’t make sense for the Twins anyway.
Considering the lack of payroll room and the in-house rotation alternatives, simply shedding all or even most of the $7.5 million owed to Paddack could be valuable to a front office searching for the money to address other areas of the roster. And if they can get a halfway decent prospect in exchange for Paddack, which seems at least somewhat plausible, that’s a bonus.
Chris Paddack will make $7.5 million in the last year of his contract, which is roughly what a back-end starter would get in free agency. But the Twins aren’t positioned to pay market rate when they have younger, cheaper and potentially better options to fill the final rotation spot behind a front four of Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson.
Paddack had a handful of impressive starts in his comeback from a second Tommy John surgery, but he was ineffective overall with a 4.99 ERA and 14 homers allowed in 88 1/3 innings before missing the second half with a forearm strain. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle in their first post-surgery season, but Paddack hasn’t recorded a better-than-average ERA since 2019.
Right now, he’d be blocking David Festa, with Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris next in line. Moving to the bullpen could make sense with Paddack’s injury history and the velocity jump he displayed there in September 2023, but it’s not certain he’d be happy with the switch and paying $7.5 million for an unproven reliever wouldn’t make sense for the Twins anyway.
Considering the lack of payroll room and the in-house rotation alternatives, simply shedding all or even most of the $7.5 million owed to Paddack could be valuable to a front office searching for the money to address other areas of the roster. And if they can get a halfway decent prospect in exchange for Paddack, which seems at least somewhat plausible, that’s a bonus.
Second up is Christian Vazquez and, hell, we could use a quality backup catcher, especially one who frames well and helps bolster the pitching staff:
2. Christian Vázquez, C
Two seasons into a three-year, $30 million deal, Christian Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 in 195 games for a 62 OPS+ that ranks sixth-worst in Twins history. He’s also great at framing and blocking, and pitchers love working with him. That’s why the Twins split starts evenly despite Ryan Jeffers out-producing Vázquez by 260 points of OPS in 2023 and 157 points in 2024.
Catcher is MLB’s most defense-driven position and the 34-year-old Vázquez has a sterling reputation. However, he failed to control the running game in 2024, throwing out 15.9 percent of steal attempts compared to the 22 percent league average, and Twins pitchers had a better ERA paired with Jeffers in both 2023 and 2024. Vázquez is now a good defender, not a great one.
Good defense and a sub-.600 OPS make Vázquez a backup-caliber catcher getting paid and utilized like a starter, which is especially problematic for a team with no payroll room and a 28-year-old Jeffers under control at cheaper salaries through 2026. Shedding the final year and $10 million on Vázquez’s contract would make all kinds of sense, but is it actually doable?
It’s hard to envision Vàzquez getting $10 million if he were a free agent, so presumably the Twins would need to eat money to trade him for a minimal return. But how much? Similar to the Paddack context, is it worth creating, say, $5 million of spending room to flip from Vázquez to Triple-A prospect Jair Camargo or another inexpensive catcher who could split time with Jeffers?
Two seasons into a three-year, $30 million deal, Christian Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 in 195 games for a 62 OPS+ that ranks sixth-worst in Twins history. He’s also great at framing and blocking, and pitchers love working with him. That’s why the Twins split starts evenly despite Ryan Jeffers out-producing Vázquez by 260 points of OPS in 2023 and 157 points in 2024.
Catcher is MLB’s most defense-driven position and the 34-year-old Vázquez has a sterling reputation. However, he failed to control the running game in 2024, throwing out 15.9 percent of steal attempts compared to the 22 percent league average, and Twins pitchers had a better ERA paired with Jeffers in both 2023 and 2024. Vázquez is now a good defender, not a great one.
Good defense and a sub-.600 OPS make Vázquez a backup-caliber catcher getting paid and utilized like a starter, which is especially problematic for a team with no payroll room and a 28-year-old Jeffers under control at cheaper salaries through 2026. Shedding the final year and $10 million on Vázquez’s contract would make all kinds of sense, but is it actually doable?
It’s hard to envision Vàzquez getting $10 million if he were a free agent, so presumably the Twins would need to eat money to trade him for a minimal return. But how much? Similar to the Paddack context, is it worth creating, say, $5 million of spending room to flip from Vázquez to Triple-A prospect Jair Camargo or another inexpensive catcher who could split time with Jeffers?
I suppose the question becomes, could we pry loose CF Emmanuel Rodriguez by taking on one or both of these questionable/bad contracts to help the Twins alleviate their payroll problem? Of course, we'd have to include a warm body or two going back the other way, but obviously the more bad money we take on the lower the quality of player we'd have to send in return.
We need better hitters in the outfield. I'd be pretty happy with an up-the=middle contingent of Elly at short, McLain at second, and Emmanuel in center.