MLB Draft Thoughts

[Lark11]

Ok, time for some MLB draft discussions. I've been taking a look at the possibilities, so to start here are some guys that I'm ruling out for the Reds at 1.12:


Garrett Crochet
University of Tennessee
LHP; 6-6; 218 lbs

Big, tall southpaw with funky mechanics, a high back elbow and a bit late to get the arm up into throwing position, and a bare bones track record in the starting rotation. He does have a good forward lean/drive to the plate and good intent, but a bit too rigid and lacks fluidity. Also, Crochet started 6 games as a freshman (with 17 total appearances) and 6 games as a sophomore with (18 total appearances). Also, he, frankly, wasn't great in his first two seasons (5.51 ERA as freshman; 4.02 ERA as sophomore).

I don't like the mechanics. I don't like the track record. I don't like the role. If we are grabbing a pitcher this high, he needs to be a starter. Why grab a guy with such a limited track record in the rotation? He's got good velocity on the fastball, running it up to 100 mph at times, which is fairly unique for a southpaw, but too much and too many types of risk for my tastes.

Too many red flags here for me. Hard pass.


Cade Cavalli
University of Oklahoma
RHP; 6-4; 226 lbs

The Reds have been linked to Cade in a few mocks. I don't see it.

Cade has premium stuff, including a fastball that sits mid-90s and touches 98 and a plus slider that sits 87-90.

That said, I don't love the mechanics. He's very linear (straight back, straight through), getting minimal separation/differential between the rotation of his hips and shoulders, which increases the inefficiency of the kinetic chain. Also, he seems to somewhat cut off the momentum of his delivery by landing in a slightly closed off position, forcing him to almost work over the top of his front leg. He seems to generate velocity with strength and brute force, much of it with his arm, instead of the preferred summation of force generated by the kinetic chain.

At Oklahoma, Cade was poor as a freshman, posting a 6.75 ERA over 11.1 innings (2 starts, 9 RAP) with a 6.8 BB/9. As a sophomore, he posted a 3.28 ERA over 60.1 innings (12 starts), to go along with a 5.22 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9.

His mechanics lack fluidity. There is some rigidness to his delivery and his movements seem tight.

Given the mechanics and lack of fluidity, it's not surprising that he suffers from inconsistent command/control.

To me, there's significant injury-risk from mechanics and throwing style and significant performance-risk from inconsistency. Given the foregoing risk-drivers, he also has significant reliever-risk.

Again, hard pass for me.

[Lark11]

One player that I really like, who ticks a lot of boxes for me, but who comes with a ton of risk because (A) he's a high school pitcher, and (B) he missed the 2020 season due to the pandemic, is Nick Bitsko.

Nick Bitsko
High School; RHP
18 years old
6-4; 220 lbs

Bitsko has a fastball that sits 92-96 and touches 98, a good curveball with plus potential and a high spin rate, and a solid-average changeup that he hasn't thrown that much. He also has a good feel for pitching, making him more than a thrower who just tries to overpower everyone. He has the possibility for plus command/control.

And, mechanically, there's a lot to like with Bitsko:




His mechanics are smooth and he works at less than max effort. He gets solid differential between the rotations of his hips and shoulders, generating force with his lower half and effectively transferring it up the kinetic chain. His balance and tempo are good. His stride length is solid and drives straight towards homeplate, so he doesn't cut himself off.

He uses an overhead windup, which, aesthetically, I like. And, he stands 6-4 and tips the scales at 220 lbs, so he's got a solid pitcher's frame.

The downside is there's just inherently a ton of risk with high school pitchers. There is just such a long way to travel to get from high school to Major League Baseball and a lot of wrong turns on the journey towards reaching your max projection. Also, it gets even tougher when the pandemic wipes out the 2020 season, so you lose that data point.

As a high school pitcher, Bitsko has a wider range of possible outcomes than many of the top prospects, but he is intriguing nonetheless and is unlikely to slide to round 2.

If I'm in a gambling mood and willing to take on higher risk, then Bitsko is on my short list.

[Lark11]

Mick Abel
High School; RHP
19 years old
6-5; 190 lbs

Another high school righthander on my radar is Mick Abel. There's a lot to like with Abel, too.

His fastball sits 90-94, but has touched 97 and can bore in on righthanded hitters when thrown down and in. His slider is a plus pitch and sits 82-86. He has a changeup that sits 82-85 with tumble.





Abel has a looseness to his mechanics and a free-and-easy arm action. He remains in balance throughout his delivery and has a smooth tempo. His arm remains in good position relateive to the shoulder and he gets good differential between the rotations of the hips and shoulders. Given his height, he likely has more physical projection left to his game than Bitsko. Abel also already understands using analytics in pitch design, so he's got the forward-thinking development style that is currently all the rage in MLB.

In addition to his good present-stuff, his baseball IQ, and clean mechanics, Abel also has good command/control.

For various reasons, the top of this draft will likely be college-heavy, especially on the pitching side, so guys like Abel and Bitsko could/should be available when the Reds pick at 1.12.

[Lark11]

Cole Wilcox
University of Georgia
RHP; 6-5; 232

I'm intrigued by Wilcox. Big guy with a fairly compact delivery and a mid-90s fastball with a mid-80s slider, both of which flirt with plus. As with many of the other top collegiate arms, Wilcox has limited experience in the rotation, as he worked exclusively from the bullpen last year. His control is also questionable, though he took real strides forward in the limited 2020 season.



Still, he has his own risk drivers: not much physical projection left; already a big man and could get bigger going forward if he doesn't maintain his conditioning; his control is remains an open question; and he hasn't proven he can succeed or survive a consistent starting pitcher workload.

But, his upside seems considerable and he's one of the more intriguing college arms.


Carmen Mlodzinski
University of South Carolina
RHP; 6-5; 232 lbs

I have no idea how to pronounce his name, but I like Mlodzinski quite a bit. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a great strikeout rate, but he has a heavy sinking fastball that generates a lot of grounders. His fastball sits 92-94 and touched 97, a slider/cutter that sits 89-91, and a changeup with sink. He also plays around with a curveball.

Still, Mlodzinski has clean mechanics, pounds the strikezone, and has a relatively high floor. He also seems to understand how to pitch.

As for the mechanics, clean arm action, good balance throughout, and seems properly generate force:




For whatever reason, I get a bit of a Trevor Bauer vibe from his short arm-swing.

Unfortunately, Mlod broke his foot and pitched only 10.2 innings in 2019. He battled his control early in his collegiate career, but seemed to figure some things out last summer in the Cape Cod League and early in 2020. It would be hard for the Reds to grab Mlod at 1.12 and he probably won't be there later on, but I'm really wondering if he's a sleeper. He seems like a pitcher who started to figure some things out and was deprived the opportunity to show it by the pandemic.

Still, with his stuff, I feel like there *should* be more projection to his game, including a better strikeout rate. He'd be an interesting fit for the Reds new player development department, who should be able to help him design a more effective, swing-and-miss breaking ball.

[Lark11]

On the offensive side, I really don't want to see the Reds draft another catcher. I suppose if that's the best player available, then you go for it, but I'd really rather see a position player.


Heston Kjerstad
University of Arkansas
OF; B/T: L/R
6-3; 200 lbs

Possessing some of the best power in the country, Heston has been linked to the Reds by the draft pundits. At the same time, he has an unusual hitch/load of his hands in his swing, which involves a circular motion when drawing the hands back to hit. That move might explain some of the swing-and-miss problems he has had in his career. He cut down on the strikeouts a bit in the abbreviated 2020, but I have questions about the hitch and the hit tool. Also, he's limited on defense to an outfield corner slot, which he likely will handle only adequately.





There's big power here, but are there any other value-drivers? Feels like there are other, better options out there.


Robert Hassell
High School
OF; B/T: L/L
6-2; 190 lbs

All the mocks seem to agree that Hassell will be gone before the Reds will pick, which is good because I'm not entirely sure what to make of him. He seems like he's got a great hit tool (best in the high school ranks), but questionable power and he seems like he might be stretched in center, so is he a tweener? Not enough range for center, but not enough pop for the corner slot? I'm just not sure.



Still, you bet on hit tool, so Hassell would probably be a steal and great value if he fell to the Reds.



Pete Crow-Armstrong
High School
OF; B/T: L/L
6-0; 175 lbs

I'm a bit more intrigued by Pete Crow-Armstrong than by Hassell. Crow-Armstrong has similar questions about power production, as his swing is geared more for line drives and contact, but he is a plus defender in centerfield and a plus runner, so he has more diversification in his value-drivers.

He might profile well as a top of the order hitter or he might find more power to his game as he develops.

PCA has a smooth and balanced lefthanded swing. He should be hitting line drives all over the field.

[Lark11]

Austin Hendrick
High School
OF; B/T: L/L
6-1; 192 lbs

Hendrick is a bat speed and power prospect, who also brings to the table sufficient tools/skills to *potentially* hold down centerfield. The ding on Hendrick is contact rate and inconsistency. The upside is there, but the consistency is not. Still, if he could hold down centerfield, then that would definitely reduce the risk and pressure on his hit tool.

As a Pennsylvania high schooler, he didn't face the best pitching competition either.



His swing mechanics have some twitchy-ness to them.

If I'm the Reds, then I want a sizable ceiling with my first round pick and Hendrick certainly provides that. If everything clicks for Hendrick, then he's an impact bat with light-tower power.


Ed Howard
High School
SS; B/T: R/R
6-2; 185

Ed Howard is a legit shortstop whose glove is a tick ahead of his bat. Still, his defense is potentially plus at short and his bat generates hard contact with a gap-to-gap approach. He generates good bat speed and has some offensive projection remaining to his game.

Add in his high baseball IQ and he's an interesting prospect who provides positional value, defensive value, and some offensive value.

I'm a bit surprised that there is more hype surrounding Howard's draft prospects. He looks like an interesting and potentially impactful player to me.