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Post by The Duke on Jun 2, 2017 12:51:18 GMT -5
This feels like the best year ever. A lot of guys are playing way better than expected. Stock up: Long, Tyler Stephenson, Gutierrez, LaValley, Mahle, Trammell, Friedl, Rainey, Castillo, Jose Lopez, Scott Moss, Santillan, Ariel Hernandez, O'Grady, Romero. Stock neutral: Garrett, Rodriguez, Senzel, Winker, Herget, Mella, Blandino Stock down: Okey, Ervin, Robert Stephenson, Aquino, Reed Am I wrong? Also, I feel like Brian O'Grady is really underrated. The man has speed, power, and walks. I've always been an O'Grady fan. Makes a good amount of contact, above average runner, very versatile defender, great plate discipline, solid (but inconsistent) pop in the bat. He's one of those guys who might make his MLB debut at age 28 and be a solid bench guy for 3-4 years. The prospect I'm the highest on vs last year is Taylor Trammell. Takes plenty of walks, the power is already showing and there is definitely room on his frame to add more muscle. I think he could be a guy who hits .275-.280, hits 20+ HR, 20-30 SB, high OBP. Even in LF that's a great player (and he'd be a phenomenal defensive LF (some worry about his instincts in CF and arm strength) who could cover ton of ground). I wouldn't rule out the power or average exceeding those projections either, but it's touch to project much better than that.
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Post by redsfanman on Jun 3, 2017 0:33:50 GMT -5
Despite my perpetual optimism about minor leaguers I definitely wouldn't say it "feels like the best year ever". There are over a hundred active players in the system, some doing well, but lots who are injured or struggling. It's just like every other year. Some up, some down. Some guys hurt, some guys healthy.
A few of the minor leaguers with improved stock, I think their stock was just... incorrectly evaluated... before. LaValley especially. Rainey has been good ever since giving up starting. I'm not sure Luis Castillo has really changed all that much, he's just continuing what he did last year against relatively young competition. Throwing that hard tends to help.
Garrett neutral? Maybe in scouting terms, but I think he really benefited in the offseason of not going through a huge fan reevaluation. It seems like the fan base strongly turned against Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed in a relatively short time over their early struggles, and Garrett was lucky to not have been asked to debut, and smash all the myths about how hard he throws, how dominant he is, that he's some miracle solution for walks, everything. I'd say the way Garrett is now generally viewed in Reds country has quietly taken a big blow. My impression of Garrett, Stephenson, and Reed hasn't really changed much in the past few months, though - I think they all have the talent to get past their struggles, and all we can do is wait and see. I'm not at all surprised by Garrett's struggles after those of Stephenson and Reed, but I suspect many are. I think his stock, if not his overall value, is definitely down.
There's no question that Keury Mella's stock is down. I guess Blandino is neutral, I think he's stopped the bleeding a bit.
I think a much longer list of 'stock down' guys could be compiled, if one so chose. Especially of guys who showed promise in Rookie Ball or Dayton but now look lost in the lowest levels.
I'd definitely list Alfredo Rodriguez as having improved stock. The Reds scouts who signed him probably aren't surprised, but as we all know the signing got a LOT of criticism. It was unreasonable to expect for him to return from ~2 years out of professional baseball and suddenly burst back onto the scene like nothing happened (although Mesoraco just did that, but that's another story)... but his brief struggles last year in the Dominican really played into and played up the worst impressions of him, and reinforced his unpopularity. The discussion has clearly changed from 'that guy is so bad and pathetic that he can't hit teenagers' to 'this is an improvement, maybe the Reds are onto something, how well WILL he actually hit?'
Lots of the interesting kids (who at one time or another looked like potential future major leaguers) are, or have been, injured: -Sal Romano -Jon Moscot -Nick Travieso -Tejay Antone -Zach Weiss -Mark Armstrong -Wyatt Strahan -Nick Hanson -Nick Howard, I doubt surgery is the solution to his nonexistant control -Jeremy Kivel, with all his raw upside
Just an average year.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Jun 3, 2017 10:19:36 GMT -5
Despite my perpetual optimism about minor leaguers I definitely wouldn't say it "feels like the best year ever". There are over a hundred active players in the system, some doing well, but lots who are injured or struggling. It's just like every other year. Some up, some down. Some guys hurt, some guys healthy. A few of the minor leaguers with improved stock, I think their stock was just... incorrectly evaluated... before. LaValley especially. Rainey has been good ever since giving up starting. I'm not sure Luis Castillo has really changed all that much, he's just continuing what he did last year against relatively young competition. Throwing that hard tends to help. Garrett neutral? Maybe in scouting terms, but I think he really benefited in the offseason of not going through a huge fan reevaluation. It seems like the fan base strongly turned against Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed in a relatively short time over their early struggles, and Garrett was lucky to not have been asked to debut, and smash all the myths about how hard he throws, how dominant he is, that he's some miracle solution for walks, everything. I'd say the way Garrett is now generally viewed in Reds country has quietly taken a big blow. My impression of Garrett, Stephenson, and Reed hasn't really changed much in the past few months, though - I think they all have the talent to get past their struggles, and all we can do is wait and see. I'm not at all surprised by Garrett's struggles after those of Stephenson and Reed, but I suspect many are. I think his stock, if not his overall value, is definitely down. There's no question that Keury Mella's stock is down. I guess Blandino is neutral, I think he's stopped the bleeding a bit. I think a much longer list of 'stock down' guys could be compiled, if one so chose. Especially of guys who showed promise in Rookie Ball or Dayton but now look lost in the lowest levels. I'd definitely list Alfredo Rodriguez as having improved stock. The Reds scouts who signed him probably aren't surprised, but as we all know the signing got a LOT of criticism. It was unreasonable to expect for him to return from ~2 years out of professional baseball and suddenly burst back onto the scene like nothing happened (although Mesoraco just did that, but that's another story)... but his brief struggles last year in the Dominican really played into and played up the worst impressions of him, and reinforced his unpopularity. The discussion has clearly changed from 'that guy is so bad and pathetic that he can't hit teenagers' to 'this is an improvement, maybe the Reds are onto something, how well WILL he actually hit?' Lots of the interesting kids (who at one time or another looked like potential future major leaguers) are, or have been, injured: -Sal Romano -Jon Moscot -Nick Travieso -Tejay Antone -Zach Weiss -Mark Armstrong -Wyatt Strahan -Nick Hanson -Nick Howard, I doubt surgery is the solution to his nonexistant control -Jeremy Kivel, with all his raw upside Just an average year. I won't argue that we haven't had injuries (I think a normal amount; some of those guys have been injured since last year, and Weiss and Armstrong just came back), but, of the guys who have been playing, most have been better than expected, IMO. Moreso than any year I can remember. Mella was pretty disappointing last year, but this year, he's basically doing the same thing he did last year except in AA instead of high A. That's neutral. Largely due to a 10k game the other day, Castillo has had a bump up in his strikeout rate, with the same low walk rate as normal.
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Post by kinsm on Jun 3, 2017 10:48:59 GMT -5
Alfredo Rodriguez sucks.
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Post by redsfanman on Jun 3, 2017 15:09:54 GMT -5
Well there you go. AlfRod's stock is now down because what he does doesn't matter.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Jun 14, 2017 9:20:46 GMT -5
Castillo had 13 Ks and 1 walk last night. Last 3 starts: 31 strikeouts, 4 walks. Good enough to leapfrog Mahle in FIP and xFIP, just barely.
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Post by cbassxu on Jun 14, 2017 9:48:56 GMT -5
Castillo had 13 Ks and 1 walk last night. Last 3 starts: 31 strikeouts, 4 walks. Good enough to leapfrog Mahle in FIP and xFIP, just barely. I was a big fan of that trade the day it happened but it's hard to not love it even more after how Brice and Castillo have performed so far this season. Obviously some will refer to how our rotation could use Straily right now (not entirely wrong) but still think it was a great move for the next few years.
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Post by The Duke on Jun 14, 2017 10:08:35 GMT -5
Castillo had 13 Ks and 1 walk last night. Last 3 starts: 31 strikeouts, 4 walks. Good enough to leapfrog Mahle in FIP and xFIP, just barely. I was a big fan of that trade the day it happened but it's hard to not love it even more after how Brice and Castillo have performed so far this season. Obviously some will refer to how our rotation could use Straily right now (not entirely wrong) but still think it was a great move for the next few years. Straily is indeed better now, but going from 74 wins this year to 77 wins this year wouldn't really mean anything. Castillo will have 6 controllable years that should all hopefully be competitive.
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Post by The Duke on Jun 16, 2017 12:27:45 GMT -5
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Post by The Duke on Jun 23, 2017 8:08:02 GMT -5
Downs and Fairchild are heading to Billings, but aren't there yet.
Keep an eye on Miles Gordon. 2015 CF out of Canada who is still just 19 all season. 3 walks vs only 1 K to go along with 2 SB in his first 4 games. .375/.474/.438. Very good athlete who is showing more present day skills. Had a good walk rate last year before he got hurt. Very good speed and enough pop in his bat to keep pitcher honest although he likely isn't ever a double digit homer guy.
Guys I'm most interested in on the Billings roster:
Miles Gordon Tyler Mondile Jeter Downs Stuart Fairchild Andy Sugilio (middling numbers in the DSL last year, but had 2 HR in the first two games this year, RF, 20 years old)
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Post by The Duke on Jun 26, 2017 11:18:14 GMT -5
Louisville Bats announced they are going to a 6 man rotation for the meantime:
Tyler Mahle Amir Garrett Robert Stephenson Sal Romano Jackson Stephens Cody Reed
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Post by gmburchfield on Jun 26, 2017 12:51:43 GMT -5
Not a bad move for now.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on Jun 26, 2017 15:05:55 GMT -5
Who the heck is Jackson Stevens?
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Post by redskoolaiddrinker on Jun 26, 2017 17:56:58 GMT -5
Who the heck is Jackson Stevens? Follow the Reds much?
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Post by The Duke on Jun 27, 2017 5:51:00 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaannnnnnddddd, Finnegan hurt again, so much for the 6 man rotation. I'm guessing Cody Reed gets the next shot.
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