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Post by The Duke on May 12, 2017 13:22:47 GMT -5
A few Reds related questions in the BA Hot Sheet Chat today:
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Post by kinsm on May 12, 2017 15:35:10 GMT -5
Carson Cistulli - Fangraphs -
today named VladGut to their top 5 fringe prospects of the week.
"the 21-year-old has proceeded to record the second-best strikeout- and walk-rate differential (K-BB%) across all three High-A levels — behind only Thomas Pannone, author of a 0.00 ERA. While Pannone rarely breaks 90 mph, however, Gutierrez has the sort of arm speed that allows for a certain margin of error against more advanced hitters."
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Post by The Duke on May 16, 2017 13:49:32 GMT -5
Sal Romano and Nick Travieso both began throwing off of a mound today. Hopefully, they'll be back in action in the next week or two.
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Post by The Duke on May 17, 2017 8:16:54 GMT -5
Shed Long is hitting .312/.367/.489 so far in the FSL at age 21. This is continuing the hot hitting he had there in the second half of last year. His .856 OPS is 165 points above the league average.
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Post by floydgator on May 25, 2017 11:56:39 GMT -5
TJ Friedl has all of ONE home run this season. That's not enough pow . . . wait, that was true at this time yesterday. Now he has 4. It's been a good 24 hours for Friedl. He's spent most of them actually playing in a live baseball game, and hitting home runs.
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Post by redsfanman on May 31, 2017 21:32:17 GMT -5
I've got some free time, watching Netflix (Master of None), I think I'll go through the minor league system, share some thoughts: A Dayton Dragons (33-18): www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=72ce98bfC Tyler Stephenson - he's having a very promising year, hitting .279 with a .372 OBP. 23 BB, 31 K, 3 HRs. As a 20 year old he's still relatively young for the level, and is starting to remind why he was a first round draft pick. I expect he'll finish the season in Dayton, but a promotion to Daytona would be interesting. OF Taylor Trammell - hitting .246 with a .338 OBP. 9 doubles, 5 triples, 3 HR, 12 SB, 4 CS, 25 BB, 47 K. Not tremendous, not bad. I like all those walks by the 19 year old. He leads the team in walks. SS Luis Gonzalez - the no-hit shortstop is hitting .302 with a .348 OBP in 93 PAs. OF TJ Friedl - Hitting .277 with a .361 OBP. He's stolen 9 bases but been caught 7 times :/ C Cassidy Brown - He's been terrible after a great debut in Billings last year. LHP Wennington Romero - he's done great as a 19 year old in his full-season debut. RHP Antony Santillan - He's pitched a lot better this time around in Dayton, after struggling in a few starts there last year. He just went on the DL. LHP Scott Moss - As a 22 year old out of college it wasn't an aggressive assignment but he's done great, striking out 75 in 57 innings. RHP Ryan Hendrix - 22, a college reliever drafted last year, has struck out 47 in 24.2 innings. A+ Daytona Tortugas (27-24) www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=dce390823b Nick Senzel - 22, hitting .307 with a .367 OBP. He has 3 HR, 16 BB, and 44 Ks in 210 PAs. Not the earth shattering year I hoped for in a fairly conservative assignment, but not bad. Awaiting midseason promotion to AA. 2b Shed Long - 21, hitting .317 with a .371 OBP and 8 HRs. Definitely deserving of a midseasno promotion to AA. 1b Gavin LaValley - 22, hit his 13th homerun today, leading all Reds minor leaguers. Went into the game hitting .286 with a .335 OBP. SS Alfredo Rodriguez - 23, now hitting .292 with a .337 OBP. So far so good. 12 BB and 32 Ks in 205 PAs. Comparable or better BB and K rates than those 4 above. Hopefully it's a big step towards a long and successful big league career. C Chris Okey - 22, hitting .168 with a .255 OBP. 14 BB, 46 K, 1 HR. A really ugly, very disappointing start. Rather than surpassing Tyler Stephenson for good it looks like they should switch spots. Perhaps the biggest disappointment of hitters in the farm system this year, ahead of Aristides Aquino, in my opinion. RHP Jose Lopez - 23, he's pitched 50.2 innings with a 2.84 ERA, 14 BB, 48 Ks. He's pitched better in Daytona so far than in Dayton. RHP Vladimir Gutierrez - 21, he's struck out 58 in 46.1 innings with 8 BBs. Now on the DL, I think, but he's been great after a rough first few outings. RHP Jonathan Crawford - 25, the forgotten main trade target in the Simon-Suarez deal. After dealing with lots of injuries he now has a 3.54 ERA in 40.2 innings, but with 31 BBs and 23 Ks. Ugly. Probably a release candidate at this point. AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos (29-22) www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=6564c5d0RF Aristides Aquino - 23, now hitting .203 with a .268 OBP, with 7 HRs. 13 BB and 58 Ks. With his poor plate discipline the outlook doesn't look particularly good, in my opinion. But I've never been high on Aquino. INF Alex Blandino - 24, leads the team with 29 BBs and a .370 OBP, but only hitting .223. INF Josh VanMeter - 22, the guy the Reds got from the Padres in a trade for Rule 5 catcher Luis Torrens, is hitting .258 with a .341 OBP. 25 BBs, 44 Ks. He hit 14 homeruns last year, but only 1 so far. OF Tyler Goeddel - 24, recent waiver claim, former Rule 5 pick. He was terrible for the Phillies after skipping AAA. He had real trouble in AAA Louisville, before getting demoted. It's nice to see him getting back on track... now he's hitting .288 with a .390 OBP in 77 PAs. He's a no-risk non-roster acquisition who could become a useful bench player. Still kinda young, was fairly highly regarded a year ago going into the Rule 5 draft. RHP Tyler Mahle - 22, everyone knows he's been great, awaiting midseason promotion to AAA. RHP Luis Castillo - 24, also been great, awaiting midseason promotion to AAA. RHP Keury Mella - 24, 4.50 ERA, 20 BB, 39 Ks in 48 innings. His outlook as a starter... or pitcher in general... sure doesn't look good. RHP Jimmy Herget - 23, 37 Ks in 23 innings. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in AAA. RHP Ariel Hernandez - 25, 15 BBs and 32 Ks in 24.2 innings, I'm unclear why he's still in AA. I don't understand why AA hitters, who hit so poorly off him, even swing a bat against him. Either he'll strike you out or walk you, a hit is very unlikely. AAA Louisville Bats (17-33) www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=6af5dfdcINF/OF Tony Renda - 26, hitting .290 with a .333 OBP. 9 BB, 12 K. Still a contact hitter. RHP Luis Coleman - 31, minor league free agent signing, 2.88 ERA, 25 IP, 12 BB, 33 K. If he has an opt out he should consider using it. Reds should probably release him as a favor, so he can catch on somewhere else, if they're not going to use him. The Bats have really suffered with the Reds abusing, stealing, whatever ALL their pitchers. Scheduled starters regularly getting called up for bullpen support (most recently Jackson Stephens) must be rough. Maybe Stephenson, Reed, Romano, and Rookie Davis will start to bring some amount of stability. Stephens, Bonilla, Wojciechowski, Reed, Romano, Astin, Brice, Davis, Adleman, Garrett make 10 pitchers who've pitched for both the Reds and the Bats this year, and doesn't yet include Stephenson.
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Post by The Duke on Jun 1, 2017 8:07:53 GMT -5
Dayton Dragons Tyler Stephenson was hitting around .300 until the recent cold spell. He also missed the vast majority of last season with injuries and the little he played he was playing through the things that ultimately made him miss most of the year. I've seen him live twice so far this year and was impressed with him behind the plate. For such a big guy he sets up low and is nice and quiet behind the plate. At the plate his bat speed is good and he has a lot of strength. The power will be there in a couple years once he matures and gets some more experience.
Trammell had a pretty bad April, but in May he hit .288 and had 15 extra base hits in the month after only 5 in April. Last year he got better month by month in Billings, and if the same trend can continue this year he is about to blow up the Midwest League. The bat speed and raw athleticism are both plus, his ceiling is very high.
Luis Gonzalez turns 23 next month and is likely org filler at this point. The glove is real, the bat he'll need to prove at each level. This is his 3rd season in Low A now.
Friedl has been hot and cold so far. When he's on, he looks like he's too good for the level, but then he'll fall back into mini slumps. He's hitting for solid extra base pop so far, and is a plus defender in any of the three OF spots. Very fast.
Wennington Romero has had a very nice start, but he's also a little guy with an average at best fastball. 5'10" and 170 lbs, his fastball most nights sits 88-90. If he isn't pin pointing it where he wants it, it gets hit hard. The curveball is a real weapon though, and his changeup is already an average pitch. If he can get another 2-3 mph out of his fastball as he matures and sit 90-92 and keep the good command and control he's shown so far, then he could start to get very interesting. In the start I saw him at, his fastball was getting destroyed, but he was able to limit the damage since his curveball was on.
Santillan has as much upside on the mound as any pitcher in our system. He's flirted with triple digits a few times this year, but hasn't touched it yet. His fastball regularly sits 95-97, but the biggest thing he's done over the last month is vastly improve his command and control. His walk rate was pretty bad last year after his first couple starts, and started the same way again this year. Over his last 5 starts though, he seems to have figured something out as the walks virtually disappeared until his last start when he walked 3 in 5 IP, but that was also right before he went on the DL. The slider is still a little inconsistent, but it's a plus pitch when it is on and his changeup has made some good steady progress. On a side note, he's picked off something like 8 guys so far this year. Lightning quick move to 1B.
Scott Moss is traditionally a little old for Low A as a 22 year old college guy, but he threw all of 23 IP in his 3 years at Florida after having Tommy John surgery there as a Freshman. He's on an innings limit this year, albeit we don't know what that limit is (my guess is somewhere around 110-120 IP), and he has thrown 57 healthy IP so far. The walk rate is a little high, but his mechanics are very clean and I think it will drop as he gets a little more experience. After only 23 IP in college and 95 IP as a professional so far, that's not a lot of game experience over the last 4 years. His 11.63 K/9 is very encouraging though. He may not be ready for a regular big league role until 2020, but he was a great pick last year because his upside is high.
Ryan Hendrix and Joel Kuhnel have both been pretty good for Dayton, both throwing in the high 90's. Hendrix has hit triple digits a few times. I'm guessing there is something specific they are working on with Dayton's pitching coach, as both could likely handle High A now.
Daytona Tortugas You forgot to mention that Nick Senzel leads all of minor league baseball with 20 2B so far. I'd like to see a few less K's, a few more walks, and a few more of those doubles clear the wall for HR, but nothing he has done this season so far should worry anyone. He's hitting well in a pitcher friendly league, and part of his numbers are because of a slow start (just like last year). In the month of May he hit .317/.378/.505.
Shed Long has been the story of the system so far this year. He had a 1.000 OPS in May in the FSL and is on pace for 22 HR so far. While not a defensive wizard at 2B, he is more than capable of playing there, and he's put up around an .880 OPS in the league over about 100 games now between last season and this season. I imagine he'll be moved up after the FSL all star game, but part of that equation is what do the Wahoos do with Alex Blandino and Josh Van Meter? Blandino has already kind of been a utility guy this year getting starts at 3B, 2B, SS, and LF. Van Meter is more of a 2B and LF guy though. Above them is Dilson Herrera in AAA as well. That said, if they think Long is ready, move him up and don't worry about the other guys, because Long is proving himself the top 2B in our system.
Lavalley is on pace for over 30 HR, finally showing that power that he was touted for when we drafted him. Unfortunately for him, he's getting no time at 3b with Nick Senzel on the same team, but he'd be very interesting if he could still handle 3B in a reserve role. His power off the bench as a pinch hitter and backing up both infield corners could be a very valuable role player for the Reds. He's too slow to handle a corner OF spot.
AlfRod was another one who had a terrible April, but then really turned it on in May. .333/.368/.387 in the month of May. The power only went from non-existent to very bad, but it was still an improvement and some think he'll hit for enough pop to at least not get the bat knocked out of his hands from big league fastballs. The bar for the bat is very low, because all reports say he is an absolute wizard defensively at SS. Range, instincts, arm, all plus. Big league ready right now defensively. If he can walk a little more then he really starts to get interesting.
Okey has been terribad. Part of the problem is he is hitting a lot more ground balls and his power isn't playing and that's his carrying offensive tool. Still too many strikeouts though. Not giving up on him, but a little disappointing to see as I had high hopes for him after seeing him have such a good year for Clemson last year. Natural leader type, but it's hard to lead from the bottom of the stat sheet.
Lopez just got promoted to Pensacola. He's a guy I liked last year and he's continued to be solid as he's moved up the ladder. Most likely he profiles as a 6th or 7th inning reliever, but if everything goes right, he could carve out a nice career as a back end of a rotation pitcher. Solid across the board with no real standout pitches, but all at average or a tick above. He's the kind of organizational depth that is nice to have if we run into the kind of injury issues we have this year again, he may get a real chance and surprise some people.
Vlad Gutierrez isn't injured. Also of the 25 ER he has given up this year, 15 of them came in 2 starts. He's pretty much been lights out for most of his starts and may be one of the best pitching prospects in our system. That fastball has been consistently 93-96, his curveball has been a real weapon as a consistently plus pitch, the changeup is already average with a chance to be more, and his control has largely been excellent. Given his long layoff after defecting, I'm thrilled with what we have seen so far. 58 K vs 8 BB in 46.1 IP so far.
I wouldn't go so far as to call Crawford a release candidate, but he certainly won't be protected on the 40 man after this year. The arm talent is still there, but after missing all that time, he needs a lot of polishing. It'd probably be in his best interest to move to a bullpen role where he could concentrate on one off speed pitch and let his fastball play up a little bit in short stints.
After an electric start to the year, Tanner Rainey has come back down to Earth a bit. Still missing a lot of bats, and his numbers largely hurt by a couple bad outings, but he's not dominating like he was. Still could likely handle a jump to AA now. His fastball has been sitting 96-98 and he's hit 101 this year.
Pensacola Blue Wahoos While still not great, Aquino has been much better in May than he was in April. In April he was hitting sub Mendoza with no power. The power came back in a big way in May and he posted a .250/.314/.531 line for the month with 6 HR, 5 2B, and 2 3B. Still too many K's with 28 in 96 AB, but he did walk 8 times in the month vs only 5 times in April. I wouldn't write him off just yet, but he definitely still has plenty to prove. He is age appropriate for the level, but he's also always been a bit of a late bloomer. I wouldn't call June a make or break month for Aquino, but he needs to continue to improve on the things he improved on in May.
Blandino has played 188 games in AA now, he's in put up or shut up time. The walks are great, he doesn't K too much, and he's even showing a little more power now, but you can't hit .220-.230 and expect to be part of the future. The Reds seem to be grooming him for a utility role as he got starts this year at 2B, 3B, and SS, and has filled in at LF as well. As a bench utility guy looks like his best bet to make the show at this point, but he still needs to hit for more average to make his other tools play up enough to be usable.
I don't have real high hopes for Tyler Goeddel. but it was still a nice move to grab him off waivers with an option left. A lottery ticket that maybe a certain coach helps him figure something out and it clicks. Certainly worth the risk, and if it doesn't pan out, nothing was lost in the venture.
Van Meter is still young, but outside of solid plate discipline, he's really not showing much else. Pensacola can suppress power numbers, especially for LH hitters, but a .070 iso-P is a .070 iso-P.
Not too much else you can ask of Tyler Mahle at the AA level, and he's still just 22 years old. The biggest development for him is that his fastball has touched the high 90's at times this year, albeit he still tends to sit 92-94 with the pitch. He just has that extra to reach back and get when he needs it, but prefers to throw a little lower with excellent command and control of the pitch. His delivery also creates some good deception as the hitters don't see the ball until it's almost out of his hand. While none of his other 3 pitches are plus pitches, he can locate all 3 to any part of the strike zone or bury them as chase pitches as well. I expect he gets the bump to AAA after the Southern League all star game on June 20.
Castillo I'm not convinced gets promoted at the same time. He's been good this year, but not great. He's had a meh .265 batting average against, and his k rate is a modest 7.36 per 9 IP. His very low walk rate has been his best metric so far, as the runs have been limited when the hits come as there aren't people on base. Ideally his slider can be refined a little more to be used as a put away pitch so he doesn't just rely on hitting the high 90's for swing and misses. I won't be shocked if the Reds teach him a cutter at some point.
Once the Reds have enough starters to fill out AA and AAA (all those damned injuries after effects trickling down) I thin Keury Mella's time as a starter should be over. Unless the Reds view him as org filler, it's time to see if he can be better in a relief role focusing on two pitches in short stints. I'd say there are at least 10 SP ahead of him in the pecking order in the Reds system.
Herget and Hernandez have both been exceptional so far. Hernandez still needs to lower the walk rate a little bit, but it's been an improvement over the past. Hos overall numbers have been skewed by a couple bat outings with control, but he does need to start minimizing those outings where he just can't find the strike zone. If the control ever even becomes average, he's a closer. Herget has just been rock solid. Already with 13 saves for the Wahoos, he does have a couple L's on blown saves, but he's facing tougher hitters, it's bound to happen. Herget likely doesn't get his shot until 2018 as he isn't on the 40 man roster yet, but we'll very likely see him in the bigs by this time next year. Hernandez likely starts next year on the Reds with Wood and Storen unlikely to be brought back. As soon as the wildness is under control, Hernandez may be on the Reds for good this year.
Louisville Bats Jesse Winker had a nice month of May. The iso-P still needs to get higher, but it was up to .120 in May. The overall line was still impressive at .360/.435/.480. IF (and that's a big if), we can get real value for Duvall, we should think about trading him. Don't trade him just to trade him, but if we could get back a top 100 prospect then it's a no brainer in my opinion. We'd lose some slugging going from Duvall to Winker, but we'd gain a lot in average and OBP. Hit him 2nd and let the other sluggers we have in Votto, Suarez, and Schebler rack up the RBI's. Power numbers also tend to go up from AAA to MLB (that's true across all teams, not just from Louisville to GABP) so that could help as well. If Jesse Winker can find his power stroke consistently, he'll be a very dangerous hitter.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on Jun 1, 2017 8:39:09 GMT -5
AlfRod needs to roid up.
Kidding... Kinda.
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Post by The Duke on Jun 1, 2017 9:03:29 GMT -5
AlfRod needs to roid up. Kidding... Kinda. His bat speed is actually pretty good, and he's a solid 190 lbs. I doubt he ever hits more than 5-8 HR in a season, but he's not getting the bat knocked out of his hands. After the long layoff and limited playing time the past couple years, he might just need some time and reps.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on Jun 1, 2017 9:21:27 GMT -5
Trade Duvall? You're high. He's one of the best LF's in baseball right now. You want to make room for Wink... I get that, but no way I trade Duvall unless it's for an insane package.
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Post by The Duke on Jun 1, 2017 9:51:44 GMT -5
Trade Duvall? You're high. He's one of the best LF's in baseball right now. You want to make room for Wink... I get that, but no way I trade Duvall unless it's for an insane package. Not necessarily, only trade Duvall if you can get value. 41 BB vs 164 K last year, on pace for 31 BB vs 141 K so far this year. People who walk that little and K that much traditionally don't hold up over time. If we could get something like: Triston McKenzie and Will Benson from the Indians or Chance Adams and Tyler Wade form the Yankees or Chance Cisco and Ryan Mountcastle from the Orioles or Forrest Whitley and Franklin Perez from the Astros Something along those lines. Like I said, don't trade him just to trade him, but if you can get good value it could really help the Reds 2019 and beyond when it will matter.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on Jun 1, 2017 9:59:43 GMT -5
I think you trade for guys hoping to land a Duvall. So it doesn't make sense to trade him to me. I completely understand where you're coming from. I just completely disagree. And Wink was my Uno partner when I worked for USA baseball. Trust me when I tell you no one wants him up on the Reds more than me.
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Post by The Duke on Jun 1, 2017 10:31:24 GMT -5
I think you trade for guys hoping to land a Duvall. So it doesn't make sense to trade him to me. I completely understand where you're coming from. I just completely disagree. And Wink was my Uno partner when I worked for USA baseball. Trust me when I tell you no one wants him up on the Reds more than me. If we need starting pitching, they aren't going to trade it to us for scraps.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on Jun 1, 2017 12:25:24 GMT -5
We have pitching. Garrett, Finnegan, Bailey, Desclafani, Mahle, Castillo, Reed, Stephenson, Feldman will all be trying for starter spots next year. And that's not not even everyone. Unless you are talking about this year. To which I would argue trading Wink makes more sense since Duvall is currently playing All Star LF.
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Post by mackenzie45220 on Jun 2, 2017 11:15:04 GMT -5
This feels like the best year ever. A lot of guys are playing way better than expected.
Stock up: Long, Tyler Stephenson, Gutierrez, LaValley, Mahle, Trammell, Friedl, Rainey, Castillo, Jose Lopez, Scott Moss, Santillan, Ariel Hernandez, O'Grady, Romero.
Stock neutral: Garrett, Rodriguez, Senzel, Winker, Herget, Mella, Blandino
Stock down: Okey, Ervin, Robert Stephenson, Aquino, Reed
Am I wrong?
Also, I feel like Brian O'Grady is really underrated. The man has speed, power, and walks.
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