Post by Lark11 on Jun 9, 2008 0:59:14 GMT -5
After reviewing the first six rounds of Thursday's draft, I believe we probably will see more money spent on signing bonuses in this draft than in any previous draft. There are at least a half-dozen first-rounders who are going to blow past their slot recommendations and a large number of tough-sign high school players who could get first-round money or close to it.
Here's a review of the 202 selections on Day 1:
Best drafts
1. San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey falling to them at No. 5 was part luck, but the Giants also had the guts to take him. Posey reportedly is asking for $12 million. Sandwich pick Conor Gillaspie should have gone in the first round, and Roger Kieschnick has first-round potential despite mediocre performances. Keep an eye on fifth-rounder Edwin Quirarte, a reliever from Cal State Northridge with big-time sink on his fastball and an improving splitter.
2. Boston Red Sox
Boston bet it all on red, taking one high-ceiling player after another. Apparently, they're willing to worry about the signability of these players later on. Casey Kelly is a first-rounder as a pitcher or position player, but his bonus demands and commitment to play quarterback at Tennessee scared off potential suitors. Ryan Westmoreland's bonus demands ($1.6 to $2.1 million) and commitment to Vanderbilt had him viewed as completely unsignable all spring, even though he was a top-40 talent and had performed well over the summer with a wood bat. Bryan Price was totally misused at Rice, and was one of the best reliever-to-starter conversion opportunities in the draft. Derrik Gibson and Pete Hissey are both athletic, projectable tools players with the chance to play in the middle of the field (Gibson as a shortstop/second baseman, Hissey as a center fielder); both also have commitments to strong college programs (North Carolina and Virginia, respectively). Even if the Red Sox don't sign all four of those high school talents, signing Kelly and one of the others would be an impressive haul of talent -- and we know the Sox have the resources to sign more than just two.
3. Kansas City Royals
With the Royals apparently poised to sign fourth-rounder Tim Melville, who prior to the draft appeared unsignable outside of the first round, this could be a banner draft for the team. K.C. nabbed three players ranked in my top 40, a figure matched only by the next team on this list. Eric Hosmer is an impact player who should advance quickly, and Michael Montgomery, who offers projection and a clean delivery, was a gut-feel favorite of mine. The Royals also took high school right-hander Tyler Sample, who had back-of-the-first-round stuff on his better days, ranked 64th on my top 75 list.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis got several great value picks: Brett Wallace, who might be the best pure college bat in the draft; Lance Lynn, a solid mid-rotation guy who's very aggressive with his fastball; and Niko Vasquez, who fell because of the silly notion that shortstops need to be average or better runners. It's a high-probability draft, as Wallace, Lynn and Scott Gorgen are all extremely likely to be big leaguers; Vasquez has a very high chance of becoming an everyday big leaguer relative to most high school hitters. The Cardinals' draft is missing just one thing: upside. They draft conservatively, and this group of players is no exception, although they could certainly address that issue on Day 2. Incidentally, I know the Cardinals are taking a lot of criticism for not drafting Melville, but as mentioned earlier, Melville had indicated to teams that he wanted top-15 pick money, making him unsignable and a potentially wasted pick had the Cardinals selected him in the compensation or second round, when there were talented signable players available such as Lynn and Vasquez.
5. Detroit Tigers
Detroit's draft really isn't my kind of draft. With six picks on Day 1, the Tigers took four true college relievers, plus a college starter (Ole Miss' Cody Satterwhite), who projects as a reliever in pro ball. I like this draft because I'm secretly hoping that the Tigers' master plan is to fire nearly all of their relievers and replace them with the five guys they just drafted. It's a nervy strategy, but general manager Dave Dombrowski will never be accused of a lack of nerve.
Other observations
• In conversations with scouts and execs, San Diego's draft is coming up on the list of "worst" drafts -- but I'm going to defend it for a moment. Allan Dykstra was an overdraft, especially since I don't see him playing third base in the majors, and Jaff Decker is going to have to hit at the right tail of his projections to be able to play every day in that huge park. But they got a potential sleeper in Logan Forsythe, who is a much better hitter than his overall stat line indicates and is a potential convert to catcher (he's caught some before, and one team that worked him out as a catcher predraft said he was a natural fit there).
• And if you like the upside-or-death approach, the Phillies decided to do it naturally, taking the toolsiest tools in the draft, landing five from my top 75, but with four of them coming from after the 66th pick. If they can sign Anthony Gose and convince him to pitch, they will have obtained a first-round arm with the 51st overall pick. Keep an eye on fourth-rounder Trevor May, a Washington high school right-hander. May's velocity ticked upward late in the spring, when the weather warmed up in the Northwest. The Phillies had a risky Day 1, but the potential reward is pretty significant.
• The worst pick of the day belongs to the White Sox, who took GM Kenny Williams' son in the fifth round. Kenny Williams Jr. is a senior at Wichita State who doesn't even play every day and who was ruled academically ineligible for the 2007 season. He's a good athlete and at least a 55 runner, but he's 22 years old, played in 12 games in total prior to 2008, and wasn't on most teams' draft boards, although two or three other teams appeared to have had him inside the 10th round. It is hard to imagine that he would have been their 5th-round pick if his name was Kenny Smith, but the White Sox liked Kenny Jr.'s athleticism, something that was relatively scarce in this draft's pool of college position players.
Two other surprising picks: Houston's Jordan Lyles in the sandwich round, who was not ranked in my top 75 or Baseball America's top 200. Lyles is a big projection pitcher with a tough commitment to South Carolina, so Houston, who also took tough-sign Ross Seaton, might have felt compelled to take Lyles early to get him to agree to terms. … Washington selected high school catcher Adrian Nieto in the fifth round despite the fact that he was telling teams not to draft him. It sounds like Nieto had a deal in place with another club. The two sides are already worlds apart financially.
Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.
Here's a review of the 202 selections on Day 1:
Best drafts
1. San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey falling to them at No. 5 was part luck, but the Giants also had the guts to take him. Posey reportedly is asking for $12 million. Sandwich pick Conor Gillaspie should have gone in the first round, and Roger Kieschnick has first-round potential despite mediocre performances. Keep an eye on fifth-rounder Edwin Quirarte, a reliever from Cal State Northridge with big-time sink on his fastball and an improving splitter.
2. Boston Red Sox
Boston bet it all on red, taking one high-ceiling player after another. Apparently, they're willing to worry about the signability of these players later on. Casey Kelly is a first-rounder as a pitcher or position player, but his bonus demands and commitment to play quarterback at Tennessee scared off potential suitors. Ryan Westmoreland's bonus demands ($1.6 to $2.1 million) and commitment to Vanderbilt had him viewed as completely unsignable all spring, even though he was a top-40 talent and had performed well over the summer with a wood bat. Bryan Price was totally misused at Rice, and was one of the best reliever-to-starter conversion opportunities in the draft. Derrik Gibson and Pete Hissey are both athletic, projectable tools players with the chance to play in the middle of the field (Gibson as a shortstop/second baseman, Hissey as a center fielder); both also have commitments to strong college programs (North Carolina and Virginia, respectively). Even if the Red Sox don't sign all four of those high school talents, signing Kelly and one of the others would be an impressive haul of talent -- and we know the Sox have the resources to sign more than just two.
3. Kansas City Royals
With the Royals apparently poised to sign fourth-rounder Tim Melville, who prior to the draft appeared unsignable outside of the first round, this could be a banner draft for the team. K.C. nabbed three players ranked in my top 40, a figure matched only by the next team on this list. Eric Hosmer is an impact player who should advance quickly, and Michael Montgomery, who offers projection and a clean delivery, was a gut-feel favorite of mine. The Royals also took high school right-hander Tyler Sample, who had back-of-the-first-round stuff on his better days, ranked 64th on my top 75 list.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis got several great value picks: Brett Wallace, who might be the best pure college bat in the draft; Lance Lynn, a solid mid-rotation guy who's very aggressive with his fastball; and Niko Vasquez, who fell because of the silly notion that shortstops need to be average or better runners. It's a high-probability draft, as Wallace, Lynn and Scott Gorgen are all extremely likely to be big leaguers; Vasquez has a very high chance of becoming an everyday big leaguer relative to most high school hitters. The Cardinals' draft is missing just one thing: upside. They draft conservatively, and this group of players is no exception, although they could certainly address that issue on Day 2. Incidentally, I know the Cardinals are taking a lot of criticism for not drafting Melville, but as mentioned earlier, Melville had indicated to teams that he wanted top-15 pick money, making him unsignable and a potentially wasted pick had the Cardinals selected him in the compensation or second round, when there were talented signable players available such as Lynn and Vasquez.
5. Detroit Tigers
Detroit's draft really isn't my kind of draft. With six picks on Day 1, the Tigers took four true college relievers, plus a college starter (Ole Miss' Cody Satterwhite), who projects as a reliever in pro ball. I like this draft because I'm secretly hoping that the Tigers' master plan is to fire nearly all of their relievers and replace them with the five guys they just drafted. It's a nervy strategy, but general manager Dave Dombrowski will never be accused of a lack of nerve.
Other observations
• In conversations with scouts and execs, San Diego's draft is coming up on the list of "worst" drafts -- but I'm going to defend it for a moment. Allan Dykstra was an overdraft, especially since I don't see him playing third base in the majors, and Jaff Decker is going to have to hit at the right tail of his projections to be able to play every day in that huge park. But they got a potential sleeper in Logan Forsythe, who is a much better hitter than his overall stat line indicates and is a potential convert to catcher (he's caught some before, and one team that worked him out as a catcher predraft said he was a natural fit there).
• And if you like the upside-or-death approach, the Phillies decided to do it naturally, taking the toolsiest tools in the draft, landing five from my top 75, but with four of them coming from after the 66th pick. If they can sign Anthony Gose and convince him to pitch, they will have obtained a first-round arm with the 51st overall pick. Keep an eye on fourth-rounder Trevor May, a Washington high school right-hander. May's velocity ticked upward late in the spring, when the weather warmed up in the Northwest. The Phillies had a risky Day 1, but the potential reward is pretty significant.
• The worst pick of the day belongs to the White Sox, who took GM Kenny Williams' son in the fifth round. Kenny Williams Jr. is a senior at Wichita State who doesn't even play every day and who was ruled academically ineligible for the 2007 season. He's a good athlete and at least a 55 runner, but he's 22 years old, played in 12 games in total prior to 2008, and wasn't on most teams' draft boards, although two or three other teams appeared to have had him inside the 10th round. It is hard to imagine that he would have been their 5th-round pick if his name was Kenny Smith, but the White Sox liked Kenny Jr.'s athleticism, something that was relatively scarce in this draft's pool of college position players.
Two other surprising picks: Houston's Jordan Lyles in the sandwich round, who was not ranked in my top 75 or Baseball America's top 200. Lyles is a big projection pitcher with a tough commitment to South Carolina, so Houston, who also took tough-sign Ross Seaton, might have felt compelled to take Lyles early to get him to agree to terms. … Washington selected high school catcher Adrian Nieto in the fifth round despite the fact that he was telling teams not to draft him. It sounds like Nieto had a deal in place with another club. The two sides are already worlds apart financially.
Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.