Post by Lark11 on May 31, 2008 12:28:29 GMT -5
Keith Law Thoughts on the Draft:
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"Compared to recent drafts -- from the superstar-laden 2005 first round (Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman), to the Evan Longoria-Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum top 10 in 2006, to last year's high school pitcher bonanza -- the pool of top-shelf talent in 2008 is subpar.
This year's crop better resembles 2004's low-upside college-centric first round. If you want to look at the glass as half-empty, this year's first round has more than a few things in common with the 2000 first round, which has produced three stars in Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley and Adam Wainwright, but which on the whole has been a dud. None of the 13 picks between Gonzalez (No. 1 overall) and Utley (No. 15) from that 2000 draft has appeared in a big league game this season, and eight of them have never appeared in the majors.
Corner-ing the market
The draft's top tier of talent is deepest in an unsexy area -- college corner infielders. That category of player has typically yielded high returns -- from past names like Mark Teixeira, Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro to more recent picks including Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun and Nick Swisher -- but doesn't fit the standard first-round profile of players who offer a wide set of plus tools or pitchers with big fastballs and good breaking balls.
The 2008 draft should see three college corner infielders go in the top 10 picks (South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak, Miami first baseman Yonder Alonso and Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez). All three have plus raw power; Smoak is a switch-hitter who plays great defense, while Alonso has an outstanding eye at the plate, and Alvarez offers the promise of greater value relative to position. The first round should also include Cal first baseman David Cooper and Wichita State third baseman Conor Gillaspie, while South Carolina third baseman James Darnell and Wake Forest first baseman Allen Dykstra should be early selections. None offers the upside of the front three, but all project as average big leaguers.
Relief efforts
It's a very strong year for college relievers, which is good news for teams looking to spend a top pick on a now player who can help them in 2008 or, at worst, in 2009, but bad news for teams in the latter half of the first round hoping to land an impact long-term prospect. The crop is led by two righties, TCU's Andrew Cashner and Georgia's Josh Fields, who both sit in the 95-97 mph range with plus breaking balls, as well as Mississippi State's Aaron Weatherford, whose splitter may be the best swing-and-miss pitch in the draft. Weatherford's strikeout rate, on a per inning and per batter faced basis, is actually ahead of that of Ryan Wagner, the 13th overall pick in 2003 out of Houston who reached the big leagues that summer.
Behind that troika sits a long list of college relievers and closers with somewhat lower upsides but who still offer that same quick-to-the-big-leagues potential. Arizona's Daniel Schlereth, son of my colleague Mark Schlereth, has exploded up draft boards in the last three weeks, as his velocity has jumped into the mid-90s, and at times he's had two pitches that would grade out at 65 or better on the 20-80 scale. Purdue's Josh Lindblom followed up a strong Cape Cod League performance with a dominant run through the Big Ten this spring, boasting a very sharp curveball, above-average velocity, and great control.
Rice's Bryan Price came out of nowhere after a near-8 ERA in 2007, and could either move quickly as a closer or be converted to a starting role in pro ball. The parade should continue with Kyle Weiland (Notre Dame), Bryan Shaw (Long Beach State), and Zach Stewart (Texas Tech). And that's without considering Scott Green, the enigmatic Kentucky pitcher who has touched 96 this spring but doesn't show the same stuff from one outing to the next; or Brett Jacobson (Vanderbilt), who has touched 98 but doesn't pitch in critical situations because his command is poor.
That depth in college relievers is necessary to balance out the scarcity of top-end high school arms. The 2007 draft's first round featured eight high school pitchers and 17 high school players in total, both the highest since the 2000 first round, but this year's top round may look more like those of 2003 and 2005, with just three prep arms taken in each (Chad Billingsley, Jeff Allison, and John Danks in 2003, and Chris Volstad, Aaron Thompson, and Mark Pawelek in 2005). Only two high school pitchers are very likely to go in the first 30 picks: Ethan Martin from Toccoa, Ga., and two-way star Aaron Hicks from Long Beach, Calif., with a handful of others vying to go in the final third of the round.
Weak prep arms
What's lacking in this year's high school pitching class is arm strength. There are very few high school seniors this year who consistently work in the mid-90s, and only Martin and Hicks have that in combination with other positive attributes -- both are athletic two-way players with good breaking balls -- to solidify themselves as first-rounders. They could be joined by Gerrit Cole, a very hard-throwing right-hander from Orange, Calif., who reportedly hit triple digits in a playoff outing, but whose signability is questionable between his advisor (Scott Boras) and college commitment (UCLA).
The best of the rest include players with good command and secondary stuff but average fastballs, like shortstop/right-handed pitcher (and Tennessee quarterback recruit) Casey Kelly of Sarasota, Fla.,; pitchers who've seen their stuff and stock slip slightly this spring, like Tim Melville of Wentzville, Mo.; or one-pitch guys with other question marks, like Jake Odorizzi of Highland, Ill., and Jason Knapp of Annandale, N.J.
Compared that to last year's class, which ran deep with high-ceiling prep arms -- from the more polished Rick Porcello and Jarrod Parker -- either of whom would comfortably be the best in this class -- to raw but still talented Chris Withrow and Madison Bumgarner to two-way player Michael Main. Last year, teams drafting in the last half of the first round knew they'd have their pick of hard-throwing teenaged pitchers with second pitches and/or physical projection; this year, the same teams are preparing to be disappointed with the high school pool that's going to reach them.
Sign of the times
Compounding the problem is the number of "signability" players from the 2005 draft who went to school but didn't improve their draft stock in the three years they were gone. Three of the top players in this draft were solid prospects out of high school, with Pedro Alvarez and Justin Smoak both looking for seven-figure bonuses in 2005 but likely to more than double that this year. But Justin Bristow (East Carolina) and Jordan Danks (Texas) had chances to go in the first round in 2005, and will be lucky to be first-day drafts this year, and David Adams (Virginia), Brett Jacobson, and Zach Putnam (Michigan) also lost ground in the three years they spent in school. Smoak's college teammate, Reese Havens, was in the latter group until he surged offensively this year. While he may not get first-round money, he should go before the second round starts. Signability players who slip in the draft and end up in college can provide a solid layer of impact talent in the draft three years down the road, but the 2005 crop proved a mixed bag.
The most interesting subplot in this year's draft will be whether the slotting system, already on life support, collapses entirely. "Slotting" is the informally-enforced practice by the commissioner's office of telling teams what they should pay their top picks in the draft. The number is determined not by player quality, but by the pick number. Just as the draft itself was instituted to reduce the amount of money the industry was giving to amateur players, the slotting system (not enforced by formal punishment for violators) was designed to stem the rapid growth in amateur bonuses in the 1990s, and even to roll those bonuses back. Certain teams have broken with these recommendations, particularly to sign players advised by Boras, but by and large, teams played ball with Bud Selig and the system's overseer, Frank Coonelly, who's now the Pirates' team president.
Last year, the commissioner's office sent out slot "recommendations" that were about 10 percent below the 2006 figures, and the system snapped. By my estimate, 12 players received bonuses over the 2007 slot figures, although many of them received the slot figures for the equivalent pick in the 2006 draft. Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Detroit, the Cubs, Kansas City, and the Yankees all exceeded their slot recommendations by significant numbers. The Yankees and Red Sox both spent heavily in later rounds of the draft, signing three and five players respectively over the commissioner's round recommendations after the fourth round, while Detroit and Baltimore each splurged on a first-round talent in the fifth round. The more that teams break the system, the more it will embolden agents (other than Boras, who seems to look upon the slotting system as something that other people have to worry about) to demand more money for their clients than the system offers.
Aaron Crow and Yonder Alonso are both rumored to be looking for money well over any slot recommendation, and a wide range of high school prospects, including every Vanderbilt recruit, are also looking for first-round money to buy them away from college. Combine the increased resolve of certain agents with the ire of teams that have walked in lockstep with the commissioner's office only to see premium players make their way to the teams that disobeyed the edicts and a new sheriff responsible for enforcement (Dan Halem, the replacement for Coonelly), and you have a powder keg waiting for someone to light the match."
Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.
insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2008/insider/news/story?id=3418073&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fdraft2008%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d3418073
"Compared to recent drafts -- from the superstar-laden 2005 first round (Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman), to the Evan Longoria-Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum top 10 in 2006, to last year's high school pitcher bonanza -- the pool of top-shelf talent in 2008 is subpar.
This year's crop better resembles 2004's low-upside college-centric first round. If you want to look at the glass as half-empty, this year's first round has more than a few things in common with the 2000 first round, which has produced three stars in Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley and Adam Wainwright, but which on the whole has been a dud. None of the 13 picks between Gonzalez (No. 1 overall) and Utley (No. 15) from that 2000 draft has appeared in a big league game this season, and eight of them have never appeared in the majors.
Corner-ing the market
The draft's top tier of talent is deepest in an unsexy area -- college corner infielders. That category of player has typically yielded high returns -- from past names like Mark Teixeira, Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro to more recent picks including Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun and Nick Swisher -- but doesn't fit the standard first-round profile of players who offer a wide set of plus tools or pitchers with big fastballs and good breaking balls.
The 2008 draft should see three college corner infielders go in the top 10 picks (South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak, Miami first baseman Yonder Alonso and Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez). All three have plus raw power; Smoak is a switch-hitter who plays great defense, while Alonso has an outstanding eye at the plate, and Alvarez offers the promise of greater value relative to position. The first round should also include Cal first baseman David Cooper and Wichita State third baseman Conor Gillaspie, while South Carolina third baseman James Darnell and Wake Forest first baseman Allen Dykstra should be early selections. None offers the upside of the front three, but all project as average big leaguers.
Relief efforts
It's a very strong year for college relievers, which is good news for teams looking to spend a top pick on a now player who can help them in 2008 or, at worst, in 2009, but bad news for teams in the latter half of the first round hoping to land an impact long-term prospect. The crop is led by two righties, TCU's Andrew Cashner and Georgia's Josh Fields, who both sit in the 95-97 mph range with plus breaking balls, as well as Mississippi State's Aaron Weatherford, whose splitter may be the best swing-and-miss pitch in the draft. Weatherford's strikeout rate, on a per inning and per batter faced basis, is actually ahead of that of Ryan Wagner, the 13th overall pick in 2003 out of Houston who reached the big leagues that summer.
Behind that troika sits a long list of college relievers and closers with somewhat lower upsides but who still offer that same quick-to-the-big-leagues potential. Arizona's Daniel Schlereth, son of my colleague Mark Schlereth, has exploded up draft boards in the last three weeks, as his velocity has jumped into the mid-90s, and at times he's had two pitches that would grade out at 65 or better on the 20-80 scale. Purdue's Josh Lindblom followed up a strong Cape Cod League performance with a dominant run through the Big Ten this spring, boasting a very sharp curveball, above-average velocity, and great control.
Rice's Bryan Price came out of nowhere after a near-8 ERA in 2007, and could either move quickly as a closer or be converted to a starting role in pro ball. The parade should continue with Kyle Weiland (Notre Dame), Bryan Shaw (Long Beach State), and Zach Stewart (Texas Tech). And that's without considering Scott Green, the enigmatic Kentucky pitcher who has touched 96 this spring but doesn't show the same stuff from one outing to the next; or Brett Jacobson (Vanderbilt), who has touched 98 but doesn't pitch in critical situations because his command is poor.
That depth in college relievers is necessary to balance out the scarcity of top-end high school arms. The 2007 draft's first round featured eight high school pitchers and 17 high school players in total, both the highest since the 2000 first round, but this year's top round may look more like those of 2003 and 2005, with just three prep arms taken in each (Chad Billingsley, Jeff Allison, and John Danks in 2003, and Chris Volstad, Aaron Thompson, and Mark Pawelek in 2005). Only two high school pitchers are very likely to go in the first 30 picks: Ethan Martin from Toccoa, Ga., and two-way star Aaron Hicks from Long Beach, Calif., with a handful of others vying to go in the final third of the round.
Weak prep arms
What's lacking in this year's high school pitching class is arm strength. There are very few high school seniors this year who consistently work in the mid-90s, and only Martin and Hicks have that in combination with other positive attributes -- both are athletic two-way players with good breaking balls -- to solidify themselves as first-rounders. They could be joined by Gerrit Cole, a very hard-throwing right-hander from Orange, Calif., who reportedly hit triple digits in a playoff outing, but whose signability is questionable between his advisor (Scott Boras) and college commitment (UCLA).
The best of the rest include players with good command and secondary stuff but average fastballs, like shortstop/right-handed pitcher (and Tennessee quarterback recruit) Casey Kelly of Sarasota, Fla.,; pitchers who've seen their stuff and stock slip slightly this spring, like Tim Melville of Wentzville, Mo.; or one-pitch guys with other question marks, like Jake Odorizzi of Highland, Ill., and Jason Knapp of Annandale, N.J.
Compared that to last year's class, which ran deep with high-ceiling prep arms -- from the more polished Rick Porcello and Jarrod Parker -- either of whom would comfortably be the best in this class -- to raw but still talented Chris Withrow and Madison Bumgarner to two-way player Michael Main. Last year, teams drafting in the last half of the first round knew they'd have their pick of hard-throwing teenaged pitchers with second pitches and/or physical projection; this year, the same teams are preparing to be disappointed with the high school pool that's going to reach them.
Sign of the times
Compounding the problem is the number of "signability" players from the 2005 draft who went to school but didn't improve their draft stock in the three years they were gone. Three of the top players in this draft were solid prospects out of high school, with Pedro Alvarez and Justin Smoak both looking for seven-figure bonuses in 2005 but likely to more than double that this year. But Justin Bristow (East Carolina) and Jordan Danks (Texas) had chances to go in the first round in 2005, and will be lucky to be first-day drafts this year, and David Adams (Virginia), Brett Jacobson, and Zach Putnam (Michigan) also lost ground in the three years they spent in school. Smoak's college teammate, Reese Havens, was in the latter group until he surged offensively this year. While he may not get first-round money, he should go before the second round starts. Signability players who slip in the draft and end up in college can provide a solid layer of impact talent in the draft three years down the road, but the 2005 crop proved a mixed bag.
The most interesting subplot in this year's draft will be whether the slotting system, already on life support, collapses entirely. "Slotting" is the informally-enforced practice by the commissioner's office of telling teams what they should pay their top picks in the draft. The number is determined not by player quality, but by the pick number. Just as the draft itself was instituted to reduce the amount of money the industry was giving to amateur players, the slotting system (not enforced by formal punishment for violators) was designed to stem the rapid growth in amateur bonuses in the 1990s, and even to roll those bonuses back. Certain teams have broken with these recommendations, particularly to sign players advised by Boras, but by and large, teams played ball with Bud Selig and the system's overseer, Frank Coonelly, who's now the Pirates' team president.
Last year, the commissioner's office sent out slot "recommendations" that were about 10 percent below the 2006 figures, and the system snapped. By my estimate, 12 players received bonuses over the 2007 slot figures, although many of them received the slot figures for the equivalent pick in the 2006 draft. Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Detroit, the Cubs, Kansas City, and the Yankees all exceeded their slot recommendations by significant numbers. The Yankees and Red Sox both spent heavily in later rounds of the draft, signing three and five players respectively over the commissioner's round recommendations after the fourth round, while Detroit and Baltimore each splurged on a first-round talent in the fifth round. The more that teams break the system, the more it will embolden agents (other than Boras, who seems to look upon the slotting system as something that other people have to worry about) to demand more money for their clients than the system offers.
Aaron Crow and Yonder Alonso are both rumored to be looking for money well over any slot recommendation, and a wide range of high school prospects, including every Vanderbilt recruit, are also looking for first-round money to buy them away from college. Combine the increased resolve of certain agents with the ire of teams that have walked in lockstep with the commissioner's office only to see premium players make their way to the teams that disobeyed the edicts and a new sheriff responsible for enforcement (Dan Halem, the replacement for Coonelly), and you have a powder keg waiting for someone to light the match."
Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.