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Post by oldschoolstyle on May 30, 2008 20:04:51 GMT -5
Some ground rules... You are only allowed to say who you are picking and why. No debating with other people's picks. You only get 1 post in the thread. I will also allow a backup plan.
Guys not eligible due to every mock draft in the world saying they won't be there:
Tim Beckham
Pedro Alvarez (though he may slip due to signablity but it's my game haha)
Buster Posey
Eric Hosmer (he may slip due to signability, but again it's my game and he's to easy of a pick) ((besides we aren't gonna spend that much anyway and we all know it))
My choice: Aaron Hicks
Why: Speed, arm, range, power... he's got it all. He is also rising up the boards as a pitcher because most scouts are beginning to think he is the best HS pitcher in the draft. To me he sounds like the scouting report for Josh Hamilton with less power, but more speed. He, Stubbs, and Bruce would be the best defensive outfield maybe of all time. Also, he would be the first legit prospect we have as a leadoff hitter other than Stubbs. I like a team who can run and he with Stubbs would give us a combo that could threaten 150 steals every year combined.
Backup plan: Justin Smoak
Why: Switch hitter is always nice. Plays great defense. Has great power. When he gets up here Votto could move to LF. Smoak is one of the best hitters in the draft and I am already on record as saying I don't want a pitcher because we have a set rotation and 3 good young guys in AAA ready for a shot. Even if we keep Dunn and Votto stays at 1B then we have a stud hitter in the minors that we can trade. Value is value whether it be for a hitter who plays for you or a guy you eventually trade for value somewhere else.
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Post by The Duke on May 30, 2008 20:10:05 GMT -5
My pick: Brian Matusz
Backup: Aaron Crow
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Post by schellis on May 30, 2008 20:12:53 GMT -5
Aaron Crow--Its never a bad thing to have excess pitching provided you have the talent to pick the worst of the lot to trade off to get other parts your team needs.
G. Beckham--The Reds have a lack of middle IFs
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Post by mrpotamus on May 30, 2008 21:12:01 GMT -5
Friedrich- He will be a fast riser and has a seems to be the safest pitcher in the draft. He may never be a #1 guy, but we have plenty of those.
Smoak- a switch-hitting first baseman with power from both sides may be too much to pass up.
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Post by The Duke on May 30, 2008 21:24:17 GMT -5
Friedrich- He will be a fast riser and has a seems to be the safest pitcher in the draft. He may never be a #1 guy, but we have plenty of those. Smoak- a switch-hitting first baseman with power from both sides may be too much to pass up. You can never have too many #1's |
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Post by awnawboi21 on May 31, 2008 0:08:05 GMT -5
1. Christian Freidrich
2. Aaron Hicks
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Post by Lark11 on May 31, 2008 1:54:41 GMT -5
I'd love for the Reds to get a crack at Pedro Alvarez or Tim Beckham, but sadly both are likely to be gone. Still, those would be the ideal picks for the Reds, as I'd love to get an elite shortstop or a replacement for Edwin.
As for the rest, well, just started taking a look at some of these guys and right out of the gate I'm really not sold on Brian Matusz. He's rated #2 by Baseball America, but I've got concerns. He's a tall lefty, but I'm not sold on his mechanics. He seems to throw exclusively with his arm, as he doesn't coil his body on the leg kick to store up energy and he throws pretty upright, which makes it difficult to generate much leg drive. He strikes me as an injury risk, because he doesn't incorporate his body into his delivery very effectively.
Aaron Crow's mechanics are pretty clean and his stuff looks very impressive, but I do see a bit of Mark Prior type arm action in him, which makes me a tad nervous. He gets his elbow up a bit too high after breaking his hands, which leads to a higher stress whip like arm action coming through, especially with his live arm. That could put extra stress on the arm, but he's got a live arm, good stuff, and the rest of his mechanics are clean. I do like him much more than Matusz, but for me, there is a bit of a red flag on him.
Tanner Sheppers doesn't get serious consideration because of questions about the health of his shoulder.
Shooter Hunt is intriguing and I like his mechanics a lot. He's got a very high, over-the-top delivery. He's got very good stuff and his stats rate equal to, if not favorably with, Crow's. Still BA ranks Crow #5 and Hunt #11. He uses a 91-96 mph fastball and has a power curve. In addition, he's got very strong mound presence. His command hasn't been as good as some of the other top prospects.
Christian Friedrich seems solid from a mechanics standpoint, but if it's true that his ceiling is that of a #3 starter, then he never enters the discussion in my mind. If we can't find a player with a better upside with the 7th pick than that, then we should just close up shop now.
As for Gordon Beckham, watching him hit makes me wonder how well his offensive game will really transfer to the pros. He's got surprising power for his size and he demonstrated good power in the Cape Cod league with a wood bat. Even so, I'm not sure I really buy into Beckham. I'm not sure his arm or range are all that impressive, but he should be a solid offensive player. He strikes me as being an Aaron Hill type player, which wouldn't be too shabby. In addition, from what I've read, he's got good intangibles and is a real blue collar type player.
I like Justin Smoak's swing and offensive game, but I'm just not sold on taking a 1b and given our recent preference for premier defensive positions, he seems unlikely.
The other name that does intrigue me is one that has been linked to the Reds. I'm sure some will roll their eyes on this one, but I must admit, Casey Kelly intrigues me. I know he's been talked about as a reach, but I do give extra points to an MLB pedigree. It's not fair to the rest of us, but genetics does play a big part with these legacy type players and I was a fan of his dad, Pat Kelly. Casey is an impressive athlete and should have no difficulty staying at short, despite his 6'4" height. He's graceful, has good range, and a plus arm. He had a good high school season, but questions linger over his bat. In addition, he may have to be convinced not to go to University of Tennessee to play quarterback. Still, the Reds would have an advantage, as Pat Kelly manages the Reds Rookie League Gulf Coast Team. BA rates him as the 19th best prospect, but here's a guy who is a legitimate shortstop prospect and could grow into being a strong offensive player to boot.
So, for me, I've got it narrowed down to Aaron Crow, Shooter Hunt, Gordon Beckham, and Casey Kelly.
It's difficult to pare it down any further, but here's where I stand. Crow's mechanics give me a slight red flag for injuries, so I'm going to remove him from the list. I think Shooter hunt has better mechanics and suffers only a very slight, if any, downgrade in stuff.
As for Gordon Beckham, I love his attitude and intangibles, but I don't see him sticking at shortstop. His bat should play well enough at 2b, but I'm not looking for a 2b. So, I'll move Gordon down the list.
And, again, I'm really intrigued by Casey Kelly. I love the way he moves in the field, he has good size, a smooth swing, and a plus arm. Unfortunately, the Reds lost their 2nd round pick for signing Coco Cordero, so that makes it more difficult for the Reds to justify the increased risk of Casey Kelly.
However, I think the first 6 picks are likely to include Tim Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow, Gordon Beckham, and Justin Smoak, which could leave the Reds with an interesting choice.
Regardless of how the first 6 fall, I like Shooter Hunt and Casey Kelly a great deal. And, as of right now, I'm taking Casey Kelly. His defense should translate well to the professional game and his bat could make him an electric player. He's a bit of a risk and I don't usually favor high school players, but Kelly could be the shortstop that we've been seeking. Sometimes, you've gotta take a bit of risk to reap bigger rewards.
That's my $.02.
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Post by mrpotamus on May 31, 2008 5:48:17 GMT -5
Friedrich- He will be a fast riser and has a seems to be the safest pitcher in the draft. He may never be a #1 guy, but we have plenty of those. Smoak- a switch-hitting first baseman with power from both sides may be too much to pass up. You can never have too many #1's My point is that the guys in this draft with #1 potential seem to be riskier picks and may take longer to get to the show. Give me the guy who will move quickly and is a seemingly safer pick. |
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