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Post by starpower25 on Mar 16, 2008 7:39:06 GMT -5
Why all the hate on a 21 year old kid with huge upside who has just not figured out how to use his stuff yet ? it would not be the 1st time a 21 year old kid was not ready would it ?
Anyone else sick of all the bashing going on about this kid ?
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 16, 2008 13:07:45 GMT -5
I actually, I couldn't agree more.
Obviously, he was a bit disappointing when he arrived in Cincy and Reds fans everywhere were so "homegrown pitching" starved that they expected him to be Johan right out of the gates.
There were a ton of top notch pitching prospects who arrived last year and, unfortunately, ours was the least polished and MLB ready. However, it's not how you start that matters, it's how you finish. Homer still has a long career ahead of him, so he could still become a bona fide #1 starting pitcher in the majors.
if we need some more proof to make us feel better, here is how some of the best pitchers around fared in their first MLB season.
[glow=red,2,300]Johan Santana (Age 21)
[/glow]IP: 86.0, ERA: 6.49, WHIP: 1.81, BB/9: 5.6, K/9: 6.7
[glow=red,2,300]Jake Peavy (Age 21)[/glow]
IP: 97.2, ERA: 4.52, WHIP: 1.42, BB/9: 3.0, K/9: 8.3
[glow=red,2,300]John Smoltz (Age 21)[/glow]
IP: 64.0, ERA: 5.48, WHIP: 1.67, BB/9: 4.6, K/9: 5.2
There are countless others, but it's the low strikeout rates that give me hope. I didn't see an electric arm or dominating pitcher when I watched Homer last year, so it's reassuring to see that guys like Smoltz and Johan didn't rack up tremendous strikeout rates when they first arrived either.
Patience is a virtue and hopefully Homer will reward our patience. In the shortrun, the arrival of Johnny may be the best thing for Homer, as it could remove the spotlight and reduce the pressure on him. Also, it may serve as a wakeup call for him that it's time to get serious and go to work.
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Post by redthunder on Mar 16, 2008 13:33:23 GMT -5
Don't you guys think he was just overhyped? I mean, he was pretty damn weak last year.
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Post by cincyreds45212 on Mar 16, 2008 15:15:48 GMT -5
anyone who is hating on Homer needs to chill. The kid is YOUNG and he could be one of the top pitchers in the league or could be a bust. It's way too early to tell. I honestly think this time will humble him. I think he got a little cocky and let all the media hype, fan hype get to his head. Give him some time in AAA and lets hope he can get it together
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Post by blee2525 on Mar 16, 2008 15:54:21 GMT -5
I've changed my tact just a bit on Homer. I'm still high on him for the future, but I don't want him in the rotation to start the season. I've also said I want him in Lousiville if he's not in the rotation, but that's where I've changed my mind.
I got a scouting report on another message board from a non-Reds' fan who really knows what he's talking about. This guy said that Homer has the stuff, and his command is really good enough to get Major League hitters out. The problem is all mental. He'll dominate for a few innings, but he starts nibbling like he doesn't trust his stuff. It's like he doesn't think his stuff works the 2nd time through the lineup.
So, I really want to go the Earl Weaver route, and have him start the season as the long man. Throwing him out there for some low pressure innings where he's only expected to go once through the lineup will help him gain confidence in his stuff. Once he learns to quit thinking and let it fly, he'll be fine. I think we can afford to keep him there for a bit the way that Cueto, Volquez and Fogg are going.
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JHockey14
Ted Kluszewski
"Smoke in the throat and peas at the knees" Chris Welsh 5/5/08
Posts: 843
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Post by JHockey14 on Mar 16, 2008 22:08:44 GMT -5
i wouldnt call it hate but i do think that cueto and perhaps even volquez have jumped him on the depth chart. im hoping he starts in AAA and is a late season call up with a full spot next year. harang bailey cueto and volquez are a very solid rotation in 09 with a season of experience behind them. I cant wait to watch them develope this season and flourish in 09
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Post by redvol on Mar 16, 2008 22:17:20 GMT -5
The expectations on Bailey have just been too high. Combine that with a playoff-starved fan base (guilty) and an organization that hasn't produced a good starting pitcher in 20 years and it was probably a recipe for disaster.
Personally, I think Homer will eventually do well.........it just may not be with the Reds. He needs much more seasoning and perhaps an organization whose fan base doesn't live or die with every start.
Volquez definitely does and I would be surprised if Cueto also doesn't have more professional innings pitched (I count winter ball) than Homer at this point.
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Post by Lark11 on Mar 17, 2008 0:01:23 GMT -5
The expectations on Bailey have just been too high. Combine that with a playoff-starved fan base (guilty) and an organization that hasn't produced a good starting pitcher in 20 years and it was probably a recipe for disaster. Personally, I think Homer will eventually do well.........it just may not be with the Reds. He needs much more seasoning and perhaps an organization whose fan base doesn't live or die with every start. Volquez definitely does and I would be surprised if Cueto also doesn't have more professional innings pitched (I count winter ball) than Homer at this point. Actually, I think this is well stated. Part of the problem is that Reds fans are unaccustomed to homegrown starting pitching. Sad as it is to say, we don't know what is reasonable to expect and we put all of our hopes onto anyone who looks like they may develop into a top notch starting pitcher. If we were the Twins or the A's, then we'd have a better understanding of the struggles that almost every young pitcher must go through when he arrives in the majors. Unfortunately, as fans, we are very short on experience with pitching prospects and it shows. I know I'd feel better about Homer if I had watched a young pitcher first hand struggle as a rookie only to right the ship and have sustained success over his career. Hopefully, Homer will be the first of many pitching prospects to reach the majors from the Reds system, then maybe we'll know how to react when the next one comes along. |
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Post by The Duke on Mar 17, 2008 5:58:35 GMT -5
The most encouraging thing I have seen from Homer this spring is that changeup he struck out Jorge Posada with when he pitched on FSN last week. With how well Cueto and Volquez have looked the Reds can afford to start Bailey in AAA and tell him that he will get the call as soon as he can throw his change and curve for strikes and not run up his pitch count so much.
I still think Homer has a lot of upside, he just needs more refinement, and that is what he can do in AAA.
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Post by bkleo504 on Mar 17, 2008 15:04:31 GMT -5
This was probably the straw that broke the camel's back for me at ESPN. Look, I have no clue how Bailey will turn out, but I do know he deserves time like any other young player. I think people fail to understand the idea of prospect development. Some guys are late bloomers while some guys get right out of the gate. Right now we should be counting our blessings that right now it appears we actually have two ready prospects in Cueto and Volquez that are off to a a hot start. We can only hope Bailey develops to be a solid major league pitcher to create a powerful trio, I think right now expectations are way too high and we should be content if Bailey can develop to be a #3 type pitcher even though he has the stuff to possibly be an ace. But he just deserves patience, and I can't believe all the idiots on ESPN reading way too much into quotes by him just to justify their hate. He's pretty much just a kid at this point in his career.
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jake2bake4
Brett Tomko
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." ~Rogers Hornsby
Posts: 105
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Post by jake2bake4 on Mar 18, 2008 8:14:41 GMT -5
The guy is barely old enough to drink and we are already saying he is a bust which is ridiculous. I hope seeing Cueto and Volquez make the rotation ahead of him helps motivate him to improve. He is a great thrower but needs to learn how to pitch.
I can't wait to see him develop and I think it would be a terrible idea to get rid of him. Like someone previously mentioned, Winter Ball is professional experience. People who play in those leagues are good and are looking to gain an edge, just like Cueto and Volquez were, and look where that got them.
I'm praying Bailey keeps his head straight and develops into the pitcher we know he can be. Imagine having THREE pitchers who are young and can learn from Harang. We'd be set for a number of years.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 18, 2008 8:21:22 GMT -5
We still need to develope a lefty though. Thats why I like Christian Fredrich from Eastern/Western Kentucky (can't remember if it is East or West). Polished lefty with 4 pitches, 90-92 mph fastball, plus curve and plus change.
2011 Rotation
Harang
Cueto
Bailey
Volquez
Fredrich
Trade Arroyo for prospects after this season when he starts to get expensive. One of Maloney/Thompson/Smit/Gonzales can fill the back of the rotation in 2009 or we can get a cheap vet a la Fogg.
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