Post by dukecrunchybagel on Apr 30, 2008 12:10:14 GMT -5
This quesiton is largely directed at my Democratic friends on the board, but anyone can feel free to chime in.
It is my opinion that the statements of Rev. Jeremiah Wright has tremendously hurt the Obama campaign. Instead of being a candidate that will enter the general election with few negatives, Sen. Obama will now have to battle the negative images he's been accused of.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, this happened at a very bad time (again my opinion), it has effectively rejuvenated the Clinton campaign, which might have otherwise been forced out of the running with Obama having decent sized victories in Texas & Ohio (last month) and then Pennsylvania (this week).
Come June, the party will have a very difficult and divisive situation on their hands. Reconiliation between Obama & Clinton seems unlikely. It seems to me they will have three options:
1) Stay the course and nominate Obama
Obama will likely go to Denver with the lead in delegates and having won more popular votes. He is a tremedous orator and extremely charismatic and much like Bill Clinton & Ronald Reagan before him, it will be difficult for too much mud to stick to him. The American Public could by November forget all about it.
OTOH, Rev. Wright seems unable to simply shut up; it seems very likely he will keep sounding off and further complicate Obama's candidacy. It is guesswork as to how much the average middle-of-the-road American will actually forget this, espciall since Obama's main message has been change and has been very light on actual substance. Obama does not have much experience and will be competing against McCain, who is well-known and with a lot of Senate work testifying to his competency.
Conservatives have also yet to fully exploit some of Obama's other questionable friend, e.g. William Ayres, formerly with the Weather Underground. It may very well be that Obama is so damaged that he is unelectable.
2) Go with the momentum and nominate Clinton
Sen. Clinton has been a roll of late. She had a very impressive victories in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, the first two of which will be crucial to the Democrats taking the White House. She has also done extremely well in the states that really matter to the Democrats - Pennyslvania, Ohio, Florida, New Jersey. She has the tremendous talents of Pres. Clinton to draw upon and has experience from her days as probably Pres. Clinton's closes advisor.
OTOH, about 35% of Americans wouldn't vote for Sen. Clinton if she was running against Josef Stalin. She won't be going into Denver with the most delegates. If the delegates bypass Obama for Clinton, it might lead to an irrevocable split with the black constuency which is so important to the Democrats (90% of blacks voted for Kerry, 92% voted for Gore). Without an active black community supporting them, it is possible the Democrat might never win another election ever.
3) Enter a smoke-filled room and pull out a dark horse
Clinton certainly and Obama probably will both go to November with tremendous negatives against a Republican candidate that is pretty moderate, all things considered. It may be that neither stands much of a chance at winning. A badly fracture convention would only worsen the problem. Maybe the answer is to punt both of them and go with another answer. I'd think Al Gore would be very high on this list, as he is currently viewed very favorably after his Noble Peace Prize and work about climate change.
OTOH, talk about disenfranchising core constituencies, you could tick off both the black and feminists by nominating a white male for president at this point. Al Gore is also, truth be told, not much of campaigner (Heck, he lost to an equally unadroit G W Bush).
So, friends, what would you do if you were a delegate?
It is my opinion that the statements of Rev. Jeremiah Wright has tremendously hurt the Obama campaign. Instead of being a candidate that will enter the general election with few negatives, Sen. Obama will now have to battle the negative images he's been accused of.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, this happened at a very bad time (again my opinion), it has effectively rejuvenated the Clinton campaign, which might have otherwise been forced out of the running with Obama having decent sized victories in Texas & Ohio (last month) and then Pennsylvania (this week).
Come June, the party will have a very difficult and divisive situation on their hands. Reconiliation between Obama & Clinton seems unlikely. It seems to me they will have three options:
1) Stay the course and nominate Obama
Obama will likely go to Denver with the lead in delegates and having won more popular votes. He is a tremedous orator and extremely charismatic and much like Bill Clinton & Ronald Reagan before him, it will be difficult for too much mud to stick to him. The American Public could by November forget all about it.
OTOH, Rev. Wright seems unable to simply shut up; it seems very likely he will keep sounding off and further complicate Obama's candidacy. It is guesswork as to how much the average middle-of-the-road American will actually forget this, espciall since Obama's main message has been change and has been very light on actual substance. Obama does not have much experience and will be competing against McCain, who is well-known and with a lot of Senate work testifying to his competency.
Conservatives have also yet to fully exploit some of Obama's other questionable friend, e.g. William Ayres, formerly with the Weather Underground. It may very well be that Obama is so damaged that he is unelectable.
2) Go with the momentum and nominate Clinton
Sen. Clinton has been a roll of late. She had a very impressive victories in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, the first two of which will be crucial to the Democrats taking the White House. She has also done extremely well in the states that really matter to the Democrats - Pennyslvania, Ohio, Florida, New Jersey. She has the tremendous talents of Pres. Clinton to draw upon and has experience from her days as probably Pres. Clinton's closes advisor.
OTOH, about 35% of Americans wouldn't vote for Sen. Clinton if she was running against Josef Stalin. She won't be going into Denver with the most delegates. If the delegates bypass Obama for Clinton, it might lead to an irrevocable split with the black constuency which is so important to the Democrats (90% of blacks voted for Kerry, 92% voted for Gore). Without an active black community supporting them, it is possible the Democrat might never win another election ever.
3) Enter a smoke-filled room and pull out a dark horse
Clinton certainly and Obama probably will both go to November with tremendous negatives against a Republican candidate that is pretty moderate, all things considered. It may be that neither stands much of a chance at winning. A badly fracture convention would only worsen the problem. Maybe the answer is to punt both of them and go with another answer. I'd think Al Gore would be very high on this list, as he is currently viewed very favorably after his Noble Peace Prize and work about climate change.
OTOH, talk about disenfranchising core constituencies, you could tick off both the black and feminists by nominating a white male for president at this point. Al Gore is also, truth be told, not much of campaigner (Heck, he lost to an equally unadroit G W Bush).
So, friends, what would you do if you were a delegate?