Post by Lark11 on Jun 7, 2023 11:38:33 GMT -5
This was always going to be a season of endings and beginnings. As for the former, it's difficult to see how Joey Votto fits into the team past this season, so this was always likely to be his swan song. As for the latter, it was lined up to be, and has become, a season of new beginnings. When the wealth of prospects became big leaguers.
The ending has managed to be even more painful than anticipated, as Votto can't even get on the field yet.
The beginning has managed to be even more exciting than anticipated, as the wave of prospects has met or exceeded expectations.
The debut of Elly De La Cruz was historic. One to remember. Depending on how his career goes, maybe even a "I was there" or "I watched that game" type of moment.
Elly De La Cruz has ridiculous ability and a gargantuan ceiling. There are no comps for him. The lazy one is Oneil Cruz, but, from what I've seen, Elly has more polish, more quick-twitch ability, and a better overall feel for the game. He may even have more passion for it. Despite having similar tools, Elly is more electric. As for historic comps, who is he? Willie Mays? A non-juiced Alex Rodriguez? Honus Wagner? Maybe he's Mickey Mantle.
Elly is part of the new evolution of athletes. He reminds me of the type of player all NBA teams seem to covet these days. The long, athletic wings. They stand 6-6 to 6-9, they can shoot, they have length to aid them on defense and shot creation, and they have the athleticism to run the floor, handle the rock, and stretch the defense. Whereas 6-9 guys used to be lumbering under-the-basket types, now they run and jump like gazelles with great hand-eye coordination and explosive speed and agility. These types of athletes just didn't exist 20 or more years ago. Big guys now have short guy speed, quickness, and athleticism. Elly is like that on the baseball side. Oneil Cruz is like that. There's prospect in the Nationals organization, outfielder James Wood, who is like that. These guys do things that they, historically, just aren't supposed to be able to do.
I have been a big believer in Elly ever since I first read about him and especially since I first saw him. He's just different. The thing that first stands out are the loud and ridiculous tools. Those create an unlimited ceiling. But, what really fascinates me about Elly is what happened around the beginning of May. At that point, Elly basically decided to stop chasing pitches outside the zone, particularly the breaking balls in the dirt. From April 20 through April 30, Elly had walk and whiff rates of 4.7% BB% and 41.9% K%. From May 1 through June 4, Elly had walk and whiff rates of 16.8% BB% and 22.4% K%.
If you read prospect rankings and scouting reports, pundits and experts have been twisting themselves into analytical knots, doing all kinds of absurd mental gymnastics, to try to justify not placing Elly into the 1st overall slot. And, the one weakness to which they pointed was his strikeout rate. Actually, a reasonable concern; enough to outweigh all of his other tools? Eh, not so much. But, the one potential weakness seems to have been nullified by Elly; simply because he decided to fix it. In case it's not readily apparent, that's NOT NORMAL. But, then again, neither is Elly.
Here's the relevant quote from the MLB article:
Seriously???
"I'm just not going to swing at them anymore"?
Does he realize that, for everyone else, this game is hard???
All of which brings us to his MLB debut against Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers.
First off, he got a warm and loud ovation from the home crowd. So, let's just take a moment to let that soak in:
In his first MLB plate appearance, Elly stepped in and took a big swing at the first pitch he saw. It was an offspeed pitch that was down-and-in; Elly was amped up. In that AB, he also took a rip at a borderline fastball that was up and away; probably missed the zone by a baseball or two. In between and around those two swinging strikes, Elly was patient and laid off pitches low, high, inside, and outside. He worked a walk.
Two things that struck me in that AB and the ones to come: First, just how carefully Gonsolin pitched to Elly. He was either scared of him or wanted to test Elly's willingness to chase. Elly's two walks provided the answer to that question.
The other noteworthy outcome was the double that Elly ripped. He crushed it to the right-center gap at ~112 mph and his sprint speed around the bases was in the top 1 percentile. It was off a high fastball and he didn't miss. Beautiful swing, loud contact. Lightning quick bat, lightning quick feet.
With his tools, I fail to see how pitchers can consistently beat Elly De La Cruz in the strikezone. And, based on his decision to simply stop chasing pitches outside the zone, Reds fans have even more reason to be excited about Elly. If toolsy players (the ones that Jim Bowden coveted, like Wily Mo Pena, etc.) fail, it's typically because they have weaknesses in their plate approach that don't allow them to reach their tools. It doesn't matter if you can hit the ball 120 mph, if you can't make contact first. Elly's refined approach raises his floor to go along with his limitless ceiling.
Given all of the above attributes and improvements to Elly's game and the fact that we Reds' fans have had little about which to get excited for quite some time, I'm going to allow myself some unbridled optimism and permit myself to just dream.
In the movie The Natural, Robert Duvall's character utters the following line in sheer disbelief at what he's seeing from Roy Hobbs: "I've never seen anything like it. Whatever he wants to do, he does!"
After the unheard of changes he made to his plate approach (and, they seem to be sticking), I get that feeling from Elly De La Cruz.
We may ultimately not get the type of ending we want for Joey Votto, but we are certainly getting the type of beginning we need from Elly De La Cruz.
The ending has managed to be even more painful than anticipated, as Votto can't even get on the field yet.
The beginning has managed to be even more exciting than anticipated, as the wave of prospects has met or exceeded expectations.
The debut of Elly De La Cruz was historic. One to remember. Depending on how his career goes, maybe even a "I was there" or "I watched that game" type of moment.
Elly De La Cruz has ridiculous ability and a gargantuan ceiling. There are no comps for him. The lazy one is Oneil Cruz, but, from what I've seen, Elly has more polish, more quick-twitch ability, and a better overall feel for the game. He may even have more passion for it. Despite having similar tools, Elly is more electric. As for historic comps, who is he? Willie Mays? A non-juiced Alex Rodriguez? Honus Wagner? Maybe he's Mickey Mantle.
Elly is part of the new evolution of athletes. He reminds me of the type of player all NBA teams seem to covet these days. The long, athletic wings. They stand 6-6 to 6-9, they can shoot, they have length to aid them on defense and shot creation, and they have the athleticism to run the floor, handle the rock, and stretch the defense. Whereas 6-9 guys used to be lumbering under-the-basket types, now they run and jump like gazelles with great hand-eye coordination and explosive speed and agility. These types of athletes just didn't exist 20 or more years ago. Big guys now have short guy speed, quickness, and athleticism. Elly is like that on the baseball side. Oneil Cruz is like that. There's prospect in the Nationals organization, outfielder James Wood, who is like that. These guys do things that they, historically, just aren't supposed to be able to do.
I have been a big believer in Elly ever since I first read about him and especially since I first saw him. He's just different. The thing that first stands out are the loud and ridiculous tools. Those create an unlimited ceiling. But, what really fascinates me about Elly is what happened around the beginning of May. At that point, Elly basically decided to stop chasing pitches outside the zone, particularly the breaking balls in the dirt. From April 20 through April 30, Elly had walk and whiff rates of 4.7% BB% and 41.9% K%. From May 1 through June 4, Elly had walk and whiff rates of 16.8% BB% and 22.4% K%.
If you read prospect rankings and scouting reports, pundits and experts have been twisting themselves into analytical knots, doing all kinds of absurd mental gymnastics, to try to justify not placing Elly into the 1st overall slot. And, the one weakness to which they pointed was his strikeout rate. Actually, a reasonable concern; enough to outweigh all of his other tools? Eh, not so much. But, the one potential weakness seems to have been nullified by Elly; simply because he decided to fix it. In case it's not readily apparent, that's NOT NORMAL. But, then again, neither is Elly.
Here's the relevant quote from the MLB article:
To De La Cruz, the answer for the turnaround is simple.
“It’s all about just stopping swinging at bad pitches, waiting for my pitch and taking my walks when I can,” he said via Reds team translator Jorge Merlos.
OK, it’s a little more nuanced than that.
“Really, it’s all the breaking balls in the dirt,” De La Cruz said. “Now, I’ve learned that they’re going to throw me those pitches, and I’m just not going to swing at them anymore.”
“It’s all about just stopping swinging at bad pitches, waiting for my pitch and taking my walks when I can,” he said via Reds team translator Jorge Merlos.
OK, it’s a little more nuanced than that.
“Really, it’s all the breaking balls in the dirt,” De La Cruz said. “Now, I’ve learned that they’re going to throw me those pitches, and I’m just not going to swing at them anymore.”
Seriously???
"I'm just not going to swing at them anymore"?
Does he realize that, for everyone else, this game is hard???
All of which brings us to his MLB debut against Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers.
First off, he got a warm and loud ovation from the home crowd. So, let's just take a moment to let that soak in:
In his first MLB plate appearance, Elly stepped in and took a big swing at the first pitch he saw. It was an offspeed pitch that was down-and-in; Elly was amped up. In that AB, he also took a rip at a borderline fastball that was up and away; probably missed the zone by a baseball or two. In between and around those two swinging strikes, Elly was patient and laid off pitches low, high, inside, and outside. He worked a walk.
Two things that struck me in that AB and the ones to come: First, just how carefully Gonsolin pitched to Elly. He was either scared of him or wanted to test Elly's willingness to chase. Elly's two walks provided the answer to that question.
The other noteworthy outcome was the double that Elly ripped. He crushed it to the right-center gap at ~112 mph and his sprint speed around the bases was in the top 1 percentile. It was off a high fastball and he didn't miss. Beautiful swing, loud contact. Lightning quick bat, lightning quick feet.
With his tools, I fail to see how pitchers can consistently beat Elly De La Cruz in the strikezone. And, based on his decision to simply stop chasing pitches outside the zone, Reds fans have even more reason to be excited about Elly. If toolsy players (the ones that Jim Bowden coveted, like Wily Mo Pena, etc.) fail, it's typically because they have weaknesses in their plate approach that don't allow them to reach their tools. It doesn't matter if you can hit the ball 120 mph, if you can't make contact first. Elly's refined approach raises his floor to go along with his limitless ceiling.
Given all of the above attributes and improvements to Elly's game and the fact that we Reds' fans have had little about which to get excited for quite some time, I'm going to allow myself some unbridled optimism and permit myself to just dream.
In the movie The Natural, Robert Duvall's character utters the following line in sheer disbelief at what he's seeing from Roy Hobbs: "I've never seen anything like it. Whatever he wants to do, he does!"
After the unheard of changes he made to his plate approach (and, they seem to be sticking), I get that feeling from Elly De La Cruz.
We may ultimately not get the type of ending we want for Joey Votto, but we are certainly getting the type of beginning we need from Elly De La Cruz.