Hunter Greene 53M 6 year contract

[jeremiah]

Hunter Greene signs a $53 million 6 year contract with the Reds. Is this a good thing?

I like Greene, but he hasn't proven himself as a consistently dominant starter. Flashes of brilliance for sure.

Did Reds sign him prematurely, or were they compelled to move this quickly?

[scottscudder]

In general, I don't like the idea of extending guys this early before we've seen some level of consistent, stellar performance on the field, typically a season or two. I also don't like the idea of long commitments to pitchers, who seem to have higher injury risk. And while the price seems low, they are likely spending more on him through his first six years than they needed to, although they do get the extra two years of having Greene in the organization.

That being said, I believe that a commitment this early may be the only way to keep players like Greene for a small market team like the Reds. Also, if we think we can assume solid performance from Greene, I think there are some benefits to this deal.

- I like the idea that this deal time aligns Greene's presence on the team with the bigger prospects in system who will be coming up over the next year or two (EDLC, CES, Marte, etc.)

- Locking up Greene at this price, and for a couple of extra years makes him a high value trade target, if the Reds decide to follow the Rays path of trading away star players before they get too expensive, for a potentially huge load of prospects

- The price tag at $53MM spread out over 6 years is low enough that I don't think it will be overly burdensome if Greene underperforms.

- The Reds and Greene avoid arbitration year haggling which can be damaging to the relationship between them


Net, I think it's a decent deal with some performance and injury risk, but it has the potential to be a bargain if Greene turns out to be who we all hope he is.

The deal is also likely a good public relations move for the Reds, with fans now thinking they have a player to root for who is going to be here for a while. I'm skeptical that he will be around for the entire length of the deal with a good possibility he'll be traded with two years remaining, but many fans will see this and think he's here to stay for the long term.

[schellis]

If Greene steps up at any point this is a steal. If he's even what he is now it is a below market value. If you wait till he's very good to great he isn't signing this. Honestly since he already got a big bonus when drafted its kind of surprising that he signed this and likely left money on the table.

Basically this is likely a win for the Reds unless Greene gets hurt or goes to complete crap. Just like the Bailey did was.

Adds a few years of control but mostly its just for cost certainty.

[crashdavissports]

The Reds payroll on Opening Day without Votto was $20 million, and that includes Griffey I think. Votto is gone after this year.

Greene is your #1 pitcher and throws the ball 100 mph.

This is a win for Greene after having TJS, and this is a huge win for the Reds organization who can't afford top talent and needs these guys as affordable as possible for as long as possible.

This was simply a win / win even if Greene doesn't hit the ceiling we all hope for.

First good thing this organization has done in a while.

[scottscudder]

Financially, it's a good/decent deal, but not a slam dunk.

Hunter Greene's earnings through 2027 (i.e., what would have been through the end of arbitration), based on this new deal, will be approximately $36MM.

I estimate that if he pitches like Max Fried, he would have earned about $48MM through the end of arbitration. That's $13MM more than the actual $35MM deal, and it would be a big win for the Reds!

I estimate if he is an average 4.00 ERA pitcher though 2027 (I used Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzalez for comps), he would have earned about about $22MM. That's $13MM less than the actual $35MM deal, and it would be a big loss for the Reds.

So financially, in the first five years of this deal, I think it can go either way.

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That leaves us with 2028 ($16MM) and 2029 (team option for $21MM, $2MM buyout), which are both part of the deal.

If Greene pitches like Max Fried, they'll pay Greene $37MM vs. whatever Fried's market value would be for those two seasons ($60MM? More?). That would be giant $23MM win for the Reds.

If Green pitches like Marco Gonzales, they'll pay Greene $18MM total ($16MM for 2028 + the $2MM buyout), vs. Gonzalez's market value, which is about $15MM per year. It would be a slight $3MM loss for the Reds.

===========================================================================================

So net, if Hunter Greene becomes Max Fried, I think this could be an approximate $36MM win for the Reds (+$13MM through 2027, + $23MM in 2028/29).
But if Hunter Greene is a 4.00 ERA pitcher like Marco Gonzalez, this could be a $16MM loss for the Reds (-$13MM through 2027, - $3MM in 2028/29).

It could go either way financially for the Reds, but perhaps there is a bit more upside than downside. It requires Hunter to become the superstar we want though to realize that upside. It's not a financial win if he is just average.

[flash]

This deal is just plain stupid. The guy hasn't done anything yet and the Reds are blowing away the next six years just like they did with Votto and Bailey. Get used to the cellar, Reds fans The Reds will be spending years in it.

The Reds active payroll is 34 million
There is 30 million on the disabled list thanks mostly to Votto.
Moustakas is costing the Reds 22 million. I think he plays for the Rockies now
Griffey is making 3 million+.

So the Reds are paying 55 million to people who are not even on the club. Not real smart.

The Reds looked horrible today. Brought up a pitcher from Louisville and he immediately fell behind 6-0. I don't know why everyone thinks the Reds have such a great farm system. The Bats are horrible. The Lookouts have abetter record thanks to Abbott and some guy named Boyle or something like it.

I can see why the Reds want to put Barrerro in the outfield. He is not that great of a shortstop.

[jeremiah]

Apr 19, 2023 16:41:37 GMT -5 flash said:

This deal is just plain stupid. The guy hasn't done anything yet and the Reds are blowing away the next six years just like they did with Votto and Bailey. Get used to the cellar, Reds fans The Reds will be spending years in it.

The Reds active payroll is 34 million
There is 30 million on the disabled list thanks mostly to Votto.
Moustakas is costing the Reds 22 million. I think he plays for the Rockies now
Griffey is making 3 million+.

So the Reds are paying 55 million to people who are not even on the club. Not real smart.

The Reds looked horrible today. Brought up a pitcher from Louisville and he immediately fell behind 6-0. I don't know why everyone thinks the Reds have such a great farm system. The Bats are horrible. The Lookouts have abetter record thanks to Abbott and some guy named Boyle or something like it.

I can see why the Reds want to put Barrerro in the outfield. He is not that great of a shortstop.

I don't think I'm that knowledgeable or experienced as a baseball fan compared to many. I only started following closely again since 2019.

What strikes me as odd is how fast they signed Greene to a 6 year contract b/c it's surely a gamble. He hasn't proved himself yet. He's struggled a lot. What if he's never much more reliable? I think he probably will be, but the future is uncertain.

There must be other factors rushing the decision and that's why I brought it up to hear what the collective wisdom would be.

[schellis]

Greene has proven that he's a viable major league starter.

This deal is right along the lines for his current production.

As long as he doesn't fall off a cliff or top out as a backend pitch to contact like starter (Like the mentioned Marco Gonzalez) this is a win. Greene is a strike out pitcher that still has ceiling. This contract pays him for what he is now, but baring injury he's likely going to be much more.

This isn't some 10 year 350 million dollar contract.

If this deal cripples the Reds even if it goes sideways they need to close up shop, because frankly they are never going to be good.



Votto's contract what a massive win for the Reds. Very few long term deals end well.

Bailey's deal would have been fine if not for the injury.


The Reds aren't likely going to sign any player to a deal bigger then Votto's If Greene reaches ceiling the Reds aren't going to afford him. If Greene is even league average or say a 3.50 era near k per inning starter he isn't signing this deal.

[sloucho]

Apr 19, 2023 21:40:28 GMT -5 jeremiah said:

Apr 19, 2023 16:41:37 GMT -5 flash said:

This deal is just plain stupid. The guy hasn't done anything yet and the Reds are blowing away the next six years just like they did with Votto and Bailey. Get used to the cellar, Reds fans The Reds will be spending years in it.

The Reds active payroll is 34 million
There is 30 million on the disabled list thanks mostly to Votto.
Moustakas is costing the Reds 22 million. I think he plays for the Rockies now
Griffey is making 3 million+.

So the Reds are paying 55 million to people who are not even on the club. Not real smart.

The Reds looked horrible today. Brought up a pitcher from Louisville and he immediately fell behind 6-0. I don't know why everyone thinks the Reds have such a great farm system. The Bats are horrible. The Lookouts have abetter record thanks to Abbott and some guy named Boyle or something like it.

I can see why the Reds want to put Barrerro in the outfield. He is not that great of a shortstop.

I don't think I'm that knowledgeable or experienced as a baseball fan compared to many. I only started following closely again since 2019.

What strikes me as odd is how fast they signed Greene to a 6 year contract b/c it's surely a gamble. He hasn't proved himself yet. He's struggled a lot. What if he's never much more reliable? I think he probably will be, but the future is uncertain.

There must be other factors rushing the decision and that's why I brought it up to hear what the collective wisdom would be.

Greene is, in my opinion, was the best arm to come along our pipeline since homer bailey or mike leake.  I think, when you have the reputation this organization has with pitching, signing him to a 9-10 mill. a year deal is a pretty good start to something good.  Maybe the time is right now while they have the room to build payroll, to begin to give the other pitchers some incentive to get an eqaual to, or greater deal.  They have a really good pitching coach to help him.

I like it.  I however don't like the fact that he has had arm problems.  In the grand scheme of everything, that kind of incentive for a guy who may never be more than a middle of the rotation guy on most ballclubs is just o.k.

[jeremiah]

Just talked to a friend who waited on Hunter Greene and his family at a restaurant. He said he has the nicest, most humble family he's ever met.

At Redsfest it struck me how Greene waited behind to sign dozens of autographs after all the other players being interviewed left the stage.

I'm rooting for Hunter Greene as a person and the potential face of the franchise.

[Curbinmann]

Anyone who doesn’t think this is a great deal for the Reds and was needed is goofy.