2023 Reds Outfield

[Lark11]

So, C.Trent projects the outfielders to be: Nick Senzel, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Nick Solak, and Stuart Fairchild.

I honestly can't remember a less interesting collection of outfielders. There's no real present value and no real future value. So, they can't help us win now or in the future, so why are they on the roster?

[jeremiah]

Dec 17, 2022 0:25:03 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

So, C.Trent projects the outfielders to be: Nick Senzel, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Nick Solak, and Stuart Fairchild.

I honestly can't remember a less interesting collection of outfielders. There's no real present value and no real future value. So, they can't help us win now or in the future, so why are they on the roster?

I'm trying to be optimistic and enjoy the moment. I personally don't think the party will begin until Votto, Moose and Griffey are off the payroll. The penny pinching is kinda embarrassing.

Senzel, Friedl and Fairchild have my attention. I'm slightly optimistic about them all. We'll see what happens with Solak. I think 2023 is a rebuilding year. Perhaps we'll come close to 500 as our starting pitching gains more experience.

[jbuck]

musakis. When was he ever good? AAA?
Senzel AAA?

note to reds

The 'past' ain't getting it anymore.....no win no watch

I suggest a BOYCOTT

[jeremiah]

Don't want to start a new topic for this, but RIP Mr Perfect, Tom Browning.

[flash]

Don't underestimate Fairchild. I think he is going to have a big breakout year. He did have the highest OPS, SLG, and OBP on the team last year. He does strike out to much, but maybe he can correct that.

[Lark11]

Dec 20, 2022 14:40:09 GMT -5 flash said:

Don't underestimate Fairchild. I think he is going to have a big breakout year. He did have the highest OPS, SLG, and OBP on the team last year. He does strike out to much, but maybe he can correct that.

Seems like a 28-year old journeyman to me, but we shall see.

[Millenniall]

Dec 20, 2022 23:55:35 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Dec 20, 2022 14:40:09 GMT -5 flash said:

Don't underestimate Fairchild. I think he is going to have a big breakout year. He did have the highest OPS, SLG, and OBP on the team last year. He does strike out to much, but maybe he can correct that.

Seems like a 28-year old journeyman to me, but we shall see.

Yup think he’s a journeyman as well. I’m still a senzel believer but it’s now or never for him in a reds uniform. Pretty bizarre to hear he hasn’t been able to walk for months because of the late decision to get surgery.

Certainly doesn’t help not having a full off-season to prepare/make adjustments. If he doesn’t improve, this will be a massive bust and failure on the Reds development team. He was close as a sure thing as there was in MiLB at the time.

[jeremiah]

I'm a Senzel believer too but all these injuries would derail anyone's career

[Lark11]

Dec 22, 2022 11:43:36 GMT -5 Millenniall said:

Dec 20, 2022 23:55:35 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Seems like a 28-year old journeyman to me, but we shall see.

Yup think he’s a journeyman as well. I’m still a senzel believer but it’s now or never for him in a reds uniform. Pretty bizarre to hear he hasn’t been able to walk for months because of the late decision to get surgery.

Certainly doesn’t help not having a full off-season to prepare/make adjustments. If he doesn’t improve, this will be a massive bust and failure on the Reds development team. He was close as a sure thing as there was in MiLB at the time.

Out of curiosity, what specifically about Senzel gives you any confidence? Because, I have none. I haven't had any for a couple seasons now.

It really does feel like a massive player development failure for the Reds to have missed on pick 1.2. The fans endured a lot of losing for the organization to "win" pick 1.2 and they have gotten very little from it.

There's at least one, and potentially two, harsh truths about the 2016 draft. The first is that it simply wasn't a very good draft class. At all. Here's the top ten picks:

1. Mickey Moniak
2. Nick Senzel
3. Ian Anderson
4. Riley Pint
5. Corey Ray
6. A.J. Puk
7. Braxton Garrett
8. Cal Quantrill
9. Matt Manning
10. Zack Collins

www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2016&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Prior to the draft, I wanted the Reds to take Zack Collins on an under-slot deal, but that wouldn't have worked out any better. Apparently, the hitch in Collins' swing is just too significant for him to overcome against big league pitching.

The second potentially harsh truth is that Senzel simply might not ever have been as good as people/scouts/pundits thought. At Tennessee, Senzel was really only an impact hitter in his third and final season. In his first two seasons, he hit for average and on-base, but not significant power. His third season is when he finally flashed some significant power. But, the power is what has been curiously absent in the big leagues and, with his swing mechanics, I'm not sure I see him as having the ability to generate it.

As I recall, pundits were predicting high batting average and 20/20 HR/SBs for Senzel. He has never come close. So, did our development fail or was our scouting off the mark? Or, is entirely injuries that are to blame?

I don't know, but I do know that I'm not seeing any real reason for optimism on his future.

What are you guys seeing?

[Millenniall]

Dec 24, 2022 13:09:46 GMT -5 jeremiah said:

I'm a Senzel believer too but all these injuries would derail anyone's career

Even when he was on the field for extended periods of time he’s struggled. Can’t help but think the switch of position from 3B to CF at ML level really hurt his hitting. His focus shifted from being the best hitter he can be to learning the nuances of CF at the highest level. All the extra time and energy is devoted to working on an area of an area that was actually a strength of Senzel in the minors.

Can’t blame them trying the Senzel CF experiment but the front office should’ve made a decision on senzel or Suarez like they did with mesoraco and grandal.

[jbuck]

just starting to like farmer....whoosh...gone
haven't seen anything out of senzel not sure why the love for him. this is a last place team Go Bengals!!!!!

[Millenniall]

Dec 26, 2022 1:59:43 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Dec 22, 2022 11:43:36 GMT -5 Millenniall said:

Yup think he’s a journeyman as well. I’m still a senzel believer but it’s now or never for him in a reds uniform. Pretty bizarre to hear he hasn’t been able to walk for months because of the late decision to get surgery.

Certainly doesn’t help not having a full off-season to prepare/make adjustments. If he doesn’t improve, this will be a massive bust and failure on the Reds development team. He was close as a sure thing as there was in MiLB at the time.

Out of curiosity, what specifically about Senzel gives you any confidence? Because, I have none. I haven't had any for a couple seasons now.

It really does feel like a massive player development failure for the Reds to have missed on pick 1.2. The fans endured a lot of losing for the organization to "win" pick 1.2 and they have gotten very little from it.

There's at least one, and potentially two, harsh truths about the 2016 draft. The first is that it simply wasn't a very good draft class. At all. Here's the top ten picks:

1. Mickey Moniak
2. Nick Senzel
3. Ian Anderson
4. Riley Pint
5. Corey Ray
6. A.J. Puk
7. Braxton Garrett
8. Cal Quantrill
9. Matt Manning
10. Zack Collins

www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2016&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Prior to the draft, I wanted the Reds to take Zack Collins on an under-slot deal, but that wouldn't have worked out any better. Apparently, the hitch in Collins' swing is just too significant for him to overcome against big league pitching.

The second potentially harsh truth is that Senzel simply might not ever have been as good as people/scouts/pundits thought. At Tennessee, Senzel was really only an impact hitter in his third and final season. In his first two seasons, he hit for average and on-base, but not significant power. His third season is when he finally flashed some significant power. But, the power is what has been curiously absent in the big leagues and, with his swing mechanics, I'm not sure I see him as having the ability to generate it.

As I recall, pundits were predicting high batting average and 20/20 HR/SBs for Senzel. He has never come close. So, did our development fail or was our scouting off the mark? Or, is entirely injuries that are to blame?

I don't know, but I do know that I'm not seeing any real reason for optimism on his future.

What are you guys seeing?

You bring up some interesting points. I guess my faith in Senzel relies on his minor league stats and his first half of rookie year - before his swing adjustment. He showed 15-20HR power that year and he dominated at every level in the minors.

Definitely wouldn’t be the first prospect to fail in the bigs and you’re right when you say his swing doesn’t pass the eye test right now for a guy that’ll develop much power but I still don’t think the Reds did him any favors by deciding to have him switch to CF once he got to the bigs. The time and energy spent on learning a new position had to hurt his hitting. And once the hitting starts to decline, confidence does as well and the psyche of an athlete can’t be underestimated. You just don’t typically see top 10 prospects forced to change positions dramatically (id argue 3B to CF is a dramatic change) as they’re debuting in the bigs

[Millenniall]

Dec 26, 2022 12:42:16 GMT -5 jbuck said:

just starting to like farmer....whoosh...gone
haven't seen anything out of senzel not sure why the love for him. this is a last place team Go Bengals!!!!!

The reds obviously have lost faith in Senzel as well. Krall coming out labeling him as more of a utility man than their opening day starting CF is very telling in my opinion.

[jeremiah]

Dec 26, 2022 2:15:48 GMT -5 Millenniall said:

Dec 24, 2022 13:09:46 GMT -5 jeremiah said:

I'm a Senzel believer too but all these injuries would derail anyone's career

Even when he was on the field for extended periods of time he’s struggled. Can’t help but think the switch of position from 3B to CF at ML level really hurt his hitting. His focus shifted from being the best hitter he can be to learning the nuances of CF at the highest level. All the extra time and energy is devoted to working on an area of an area that was actually a strength of Senzel in the minors.

Can’t blame them trying the Senzel CF experiment but the front office should’ve made a decision on senzel or Suarez like they did with mesoraco and grandal.

I'll be honest, my opinion of Senzel is based on emotion, not logic. I like him. I was there his opening week at GABP and watched/listened to his first at bats. I listened to his first base hit.

I know he was a highly ranked prospect and I collected his rookie cards. I listened to his honest and vulnerable podcasts on Jim Day.

I'm just rooting for him as a person. That's why I'm optimistic. He's had an abnormal amount of injuries. I'm curious to see what'll happen in 2023.

[jeremiah]

Dec 28, 2022 10:36:20 GMT -5 Millenniall said:

Dec 26, 2022 1:59:43 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Out of curiosity, what specifically about Senzel gives you any confidence? Because, I have none. I haven't had any for a couple seasons now.

It really does feel like a massive player development failure for the Reds to have missed on pick 1.2. The fans endured a lot of losing for the organization to "win" pick 1.2 and they have gotten very little from it.

There's at least one, and potentially two, harsh truths about the 2016 draft. The first is that it simply wasn't a very good draft class. At all. Here's the top ten picks:

1. Mickey Moniak
2. Nick Senzel
3. Ian Anderson
4. Riley Pint
5. Corey Ray
6. A.J. Puk
7. Braxton Garrett
8. Cal Quantrill
9. Matt Manning
10. Zack Collins

www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2016&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Prior to the draft, I wanted the Reds to take Zack Collins on an under-slot deal, but that wouldn't have worked out any better. Apparently, the hitch in Collins' swing is just too significant for him to overcome against big league pitching.

The second potentially harsh truth is that Senzel simply might not ever have been as good as people/scouts/pundits thought. At Tennessee, Senzel was really only an impact hitter in his third and final season. In his first two seasons, he hit for average and on-base, but not significant power. His third season is when he finally flashed some significant power. But, the power is what has been curiously absent in the big leagues and, with his swing mechanics, I'm not sure I see him as having the ability to generate it.

As I recall, pundits were predicting high batting average and 20/20 HR/SBs for Senzel. He has never come close. So, did our development fail or was our scouting off the mark? Or, is entirely injuries that are to blame?

I don't know, but I do know that I'm not seeing any real reason for optimism on his future.

What are you guys seeing?

You bring up some interesting points. I guess my faith in Senzel relies on his minor league stats and his first half of rookie year - before his swing adjustment. He showed 15-20HR power that year and he dominated at every level in the minors.

Definitely wouldn’t be the first prospect to fail in the bigs and you’re right when you say his swing doesn’t pass the eye test right now for a guy that’ll develop much power but I still don’t think the Reds did him any favors by deciding to have him switch to CF once he got to the bigs. The time and energy spent on learning a new position had to hurt his hitting. And once the hitting starts to decline, confidence does as well and the psyche of an athlete can’t be underestimated. You just don’t typically see top 10 prospects forced to change positions dramatically (id argue 3B to CF is a dramatic change) as they’re debuting in the bigs

I think David Bell may underestimate how hard it is to be moved around and not consistently play one position. I think this could definitely effect Senzel and others. Either way, I hope Senzel can adapt and overcome.