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Post by Lark11 on Nov 19, 2022 12:27:14 GMT -5
Ok, here's the first move I make:
Move #1: Trade RP Alexis Diaz to the Mariners for OF Taylor Trammell.
Trammell continues to improve and develop, including a robust .333/.408/.575 with a 11.2% BB% and 17.3% K% at triple-A last year in 98 PAs. His major league numbers, on the surface, aren't overly impressive (.196/.284/.402 over 117 PAs), but he showed a strong walk rate (11.1%) and cut his strikeout rate significantly from 2021 (2021: 42.1% to 2022: 28.2%). He's reworked his swing to reach his power potential and his walk and whiff ratios are continuing to trend in the right direction at the big league level. The last real hurdle is improving his contact rate: it was 58.5% in 2021 and 66.5% in 2022 (76.6% was league average in 2022). If he improves his contact rate, through continued refinements of his swing mechanics and through better swing/no-swing decisions at the plate, then his batting average will improve and his power will be more impactful.
As it stands, I would bring Taylor home and bet on his character and make-up in figuring out the remaining development challenges. Our outfield is a dumpster fire and we have plenty of PAs to offer a still developing prospect, whereas the Mariners are in win-now mode and would more benefit from a leverage reliever. We also don't have a ton of outfield prospects on the horizon to address this shortfall, unless Elly ends up there.
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flash
Ted Kluszewski
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Post by flash on Nov 21, 2022 9:05:40 GMT -5
That would be a dumb trade. Diaz is part of the future.
Fairchild will be the starting centerfielder. He isn't that bad. He had the highest OPS on the club last year and he has made only one error in his entire career. Fraley will be in left. Right field, who knows. India will be at third. At short, who knows. Lopez will be at second and Votto at first Stepheson will be behind the plate, Back-up, who knows. DH Moustakeas until he trips over his own feet.
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Post by crashdavissports on Nov 21, 2022 10:12:48 GMT -5
That would be a dumb trade. Diaz is part of the future. Fairchild will be the starting centerfielder. He isn't that bad. He had the highest OPS on the club last year and he has made only one error in his entire career. Fraley will be in left. Right field, who knows. India will be at third. At short, who knows. Lopez will be at second and Votto at first Stepheson will be behind the plate, Back-up, who knows. DH Moustakeas until he trips over his own feet. I don't think it is dumb at all, but given how we have struggled to put together a competent bullpen over the last several years, I question the timing with the cost and effectiveness of Diaz. Besides, I don't think Diaz has enough value to warrant obtaining Trammell on his own. Maybe? But it seems a little off balance to me. However, I don't know what each team values and what a true good deal for both teams are. One to one trades just don't seem to happen often, and when they do, they almost always favor one team pretty heavily. |
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Post by Lark11 on Nov 21, 2022 12:15:12 GMT -5
That's a good sign on my first move: one thinks it's a massive overpayment, one thinks it isn't enough to get the deal done.
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Post by Lark11 on Nov 21, 2022 12:28:48 GMT -5
Move #2: Sign Cody Bellinger to a 1-year deal worth $10M to play centerfield.
The Dodgers DFA'd him, as he's been scuffling at the plate since his shoulder injury a couple of years ago. Rumor has it that he wants a 1-year deal to rebuild his value and hit free agency again next offseason.
Given that the Reds aren't really in win-now mode in 2023, this is the type of move they should make. It's a gamble, but one that aligns with their current position on the win-curve. The gamble is a $10M bet on Bellinger bouncing back enough to have some exit-value: either in the form of prospects in a trade at the deadline or draft pick compensation for a qualifying offer at the end of the season. The former would require modest improvement from Bellinger, the latter would likely require something more resembling a complete bounce-back.
Given the contrast between the performance levels of Jesse Winker and Brandon Drury in GABP and away from it, it's clear that GABP is still a great place to hit. What better place to rebuild offensive value than GABP? Another selling point? Come be a teammate of future Hall of Famer Joey Votto; what better player to be around to learn how to make adjustments to regain lost performance at the plate?
Bellinger still provides defensive-value in centerfield, which would help give him some trade value at the deadline even if the bat doesn't bounce all the way back.
The Reds aren't going to spend big on any free agents, so may as well buy a lottery ticket and work with him to rebuild his swing/confidence/health as necessary to get back to hitting the ball.
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Post by schellis on Nov 21, 2022 16:43:52 GMT -5
Move #2: Sign Cody Bellinger to a 1-year deal worth $10M to play centerfield. The Dodgers DFA'd him, as he's been scuffling at the plate since his shoulder injury a couple of years ago. Rumor has it that he wants a 1-year deal to rebuild his value and hit free agency again next offseason. Given that the Reds aren't really in win-now mode in 2023, this is the type of move they should make. It's a gamble, but one that aligns with their current position on the win-curve. The gamble is a $10M bet on Bellinger bouncing back enough to have some exit-value: either in the form of prospects in a trade at the deadline or draft pick compensation for a qualifying offer at the end of the season. The former would require modest improvement from Bellinger, the latter would likely require something more resembling a complete bounce-back. Given the contrast between the performance levels of Jesse Winker and Brandon Drury in GABP and away from it, it's clear that GABP is still a great place to hit. What better place to rebuild offensive value than GABP? Another selling point? Come be a teammate of future Hall of Famer Joey Votto; what better player to be around to learn how to make adjustments to regain lost performance at the plate? Bellinger still provides defensive-value in centerfield, which would help give him some trade value at the deadline even if the bat doesn't bounce all the way back. The Reds aren't going to spend big on any free agents, so may as well buy a lottery ticket and work with him to rebuild his swing/confidence/health as necessary to get back to hitting the ball. Conforto is another that fits this mold. Though Bellinger ability to play CF trumps him. Heck sign both. Get Senzel back to 3B. Trammell/Bellinger/Conforto with Fairchild and Fairly to spell swap isn't a bad OF at all. IF/DH is pretty meh This sort of thing is what a team like the Reds should do. Grab rebound talent (especially if they spent previous season(s) in a pitchers park) to low cost make good deals with a eye to flip at the deadline What they will do instead is sign guys like Moose to play out of position that are on the downside offensively. However I do not believe that either of these players (Bellinger/Conforto) can be had for 10 million. |
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Post by Lark11 on Nov 21, 2022 18:04:59 GMT -5
Move #2: Sign Cody Bellinger to a 1-year deal worth $10M to play centerfield. The Dodgers DFA'd him, as he's been scuffling at the plate since his shoulder injury a couple of years ago. Rumor has it that he wants a 1-year deal to rebuild his value and hit free agency again next offseason. Given that the Reds aren't really in win-now mode in 2023, this is the type of move they should make. It's a gamble, but one that aligns with their current position on the win-curve. The gamble is a $10M bet on Bellinger bouncing back enough to have some exit-value: either in the form of prospects in a trade at the deadline or draft pick compensation for a qualifying offer at the end of the season. The former would require modest improvement from Bellinger, the latter would likely require something more resembling a complete bounce-back. Given the contrast between the performance levels of Jesse Winker and Brandon Drury in GABP and away from it, it's clear that GABP is still a great place to hit. What better place to rebuild offensive value than GABP? Another selling point? Come be a teammate of future Hall of Famer Joey Votto; what better player to be around to learn how to make adjustments to regain lost performance at the plate? Bellinger still provides defensive-value in centerfield, which would help give him some trade value at the deadline even if the bat doesn't bounce all the way back. The Reds aren't going to spend big on any free agents, so may as well buy a lottery ticket and work with him to rebuild his swing/confidence/health as necessary to get back to hitting the ball. Conforto is another that fits this mold. Though Bellinger ability to play CF trumps him. Heck sign both. Get Senzel back to 3B. Trammell/Bellinger/Conforto with Fairchild and Fairly to spell swap isn't a bad OF at all. IF/DH is pretty meh This sort of thing is what a team like the Reds should do. Grab rebound talent (especially if they spent previous season(s) in a pitchers park) to low cost make good deals with a eye to flip at the deadline What they will do instead is sign guys like Moose to play out of position that are on the downside offensively. However I do not believe that either of these players (Bellinger/Conforto) can be had for 10 million. Good point, Conforto is another, but I think he's likely to cost more in dollars and term and has less upside if he bounces back. So, he's just a bit less interesting for lottery ticket purposes. On Bellinger, you might be right. From what I'm reading, he is starting to generate a surprising amount of interest in free agency. That said, the Dodgers DFA'd instead of paying him ~$18M, so arguably his value is somewhere south of that. But, I don't think I'd go over $10M on a 1-year deal for Bellinger. If he gets more than that, turn the page on the idea. |
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Same thing Different year
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Post by Same thing Different year on Nov 21, 2022 19:28:37 GMT -5
That would be a dumb trade. Diaz is part of the future. Fairchild will be the starting centerfielder. He isn't that bad. He had the highest OPS on the club last year and he has made only one error in his entire career. Fraley will be in left. Right field, who knows. India will be at third. At short, who knows. Lopez will be at second and Votto at first Stepheson will be behind the plate, Back-up, who knows. DH Moustakeas until he trips over his own feet. Lopez is probably not making this team. Fairchild is not starting in CF either. |
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Post by Come on Lark on Nov 21, 2022 19:30:31 GMT -5
Bellinger has like a 70 OPS+ over the past 3 season combined. Even if he miraciously becomes good again he wouldn't be in Cincy long enough to help them. Don't waste that kind of money on him.
The Reds probably aren't going to spend big money this winter, if they do it should be on pitching depth, but they aren't smart enough for that imho.
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Post by Lark11 on Nov 21, 2022 19:42:50 GMT -5
Bellinger has like a 70 OPS+ over the past 3 season combined. Even if he miraciously becomes good again he wouldn't be in Cincy long enough to help them. Don't waste that kind of money on him. The Reds probably aren't going to spend big money this winter, if they do it should be on pitching depth, but they aren't smart enough for that imho. First, I would argue that $10M isn't big bucks. The Yanks just spent $6M on I.Kiner Falala (or whatever his name is). Second, I would argue that the Reds have turned the corner in pitching development and, frankly, don't need to spend big coin on pitching depth. Finally, spending money on depth is something that big market and/or contending teams do; the Reds are neither. They need to figure out ways to acquire future assets. If $10M buys you a draft pick or a solid prospect or two, then it makes sense. The Bellinger move would, ideally, be a way to collect future assets. But, given the amount of interest, it seems unlikely. Lots of teams seem interested in throwing significant years and dollars at a broken hitter who has only been worth ~1.5 wins in each of the last few seasons. |
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Not enough pitching
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Post by Not enough pitching on Nov 21, 2022 21:25:42 GMT -5
10M$ is probably 15% of their payroll this year.
They have 3 starters, none of whom have pitched a full mlb season's worth of innings, and no bullpen. They most definitely have not turned the corner.
Can't wait for Kyle Dowdy Jr.'s of the world to be pitching again in the 2nd half.
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Post by Lark11 on Nov 22, 2022 12:30:49 GMT -5
10M$ is probably 15% of their payroll this year. They have 3 starters, none of whom have pitched a full mlb season's worth of innings, and no bullpen. They most definitely have not turned the corner. Can't wait for Kyle Dowdy Jr.'s of the world to be pitching again in the 2nd half. That doesn't make it a lot of money. Just because ownership decides to unnecessarily shrink the denominator doesn't make the numerator bigger. |
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Post by Lark11 on Dec 7, 2022 1:48:04 GMT -5
Move #3 Draft Phillies LHP Erik Miller in the Rule 5 Draft.
I was intrigued by Miller at Stanford. A big, strapping southpaw with good stuff. He started exclusively as a sophomore and junior, exhibiting the same profile: big strikeout rate, poor walk rate, and solid overall numbers.
With respect to his repertoire, Miller pitches with a mid-90s fastball, a good slider, and a solid changeup. The Phillies switched him to the bullpen fulltime last year and his fastball velocity ticked up to 96/97. He dealt with some injury problems, but when healthy worked at triple-A, so he's close to big league ready. The sample size was small and his performance level underwhelming.
Miller pitched in the futures game in 2022 and while he doesn't have the prospect profile of most of the other participants, it's still a bit surprising to see a futures game prospect left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Here' s a look at Miller:
Overall, I like Miller's stuff and there are things about his mechanics that I really like. And, I'd love the Reds to roll the dice on him and try to develop improved control/command. Personally, I'd change the way his stride foot lands. I remember when the Royals signed Gil Meche to a big ticket free agent contract despite significant control problems. They felt that they could improve his control/command by having him land on the ball of his stride foot, instead of the heel. That would be a good starting point for Miller. As it stands, his stride foot/leg seem to have a bit of a jarring impact, rather than a softer landing on the ball of the foot that might absorb the shock a bit more.
If you can improve his control/command, then you have a legit MLB pitcher, whether that's working out of the bullpen or the rotation. And, as strange as it still sounds, the Reds have a decent understanding of how to develop pitching these days, potentially making unlocking Miller's potential a viable option. As it stands, he has a lot of components of a good pitcher and seems to be worth a roll of the dice.
The Reds have the 4th overall pick in the Rule 5 draft and so would seemingly have a good shot at Miller.
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