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Post by crashdavissports on Jul 21, 2022 11:57:11 GMT -5
Castillo is the type of player we should be locking up long term, say 5 years / 100 million if we could get him to agree to that.
Castillo/Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft would make a good set of pitchers 1-4 for the next 5 years.
We have a lot of young talent getting ready to be in the majors also on the offensive side of the ball.
We have Senzel/India/Stephenson/McLain/De La Cruz/Allen/Hendrick/Callihan
We need to jettison the following contracts: Minor/Moustakas/Pham/Solano/Naquin/Votto. That is $65.5 million in salary right there.
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Post by curbinman on Jul 21, 2022 14:52:51 GMT -5
Castillo is the type of player we should be locking up long term, say 5 years / 100 million if we could get him to agree to that. Castillo/Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft would make a good set of pitchers 1-4 for the next 5 years. We have a lot of young talent getting ready to be in the majors also on the offensive side of the ball. We have Senzel/India/Stephenson/McLain/De La Cruz/Allen/Hendrick/Callihan We need to jettison the following contracts: Minor/Moustakas/Pham/Solano/Naquin/Votto. That is $65.5 million in salary right there. yeah, he signs that contract and no chance India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, Or anyone else for that matter gets resigned. I like Castillo, more than most, but he is not a player you build around. Teams like the reds can’t spend 100 million on a pitcher. The shelf life is too short.
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Post by crashdavissports on Jul 22, 2022 7:20:35 GMT -5
Castillo is the type of player we should be locking up long term, say 5 years / 100 million if we could get him to agree to that. Castillo/Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft would make a good set of pitchers 1-4 for the next 5 years. We have a lot of young talent getting ready to be in the majors also on the offensive side of the ball. We have Senzel/India/Stephenson/McLain/De La Cruz/Allen/Hendrick/Callihan We need to jettison the following contracts: Minor/Moustakas/Pham/Solano/Naquin/Votto. That is $65.5 million in salary right there. yeah, he signs that contract and no chance India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, Or anyone else for that matter gets resigned. I like Castillo, more than most, but he is not a player you build around. Teams like the reds can’t spend 100 million on a pitcher. The shelf life is too short. Well, first of all, the Reds have Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft for the next 5 years beyond this year before they are eligible for FA. So at the end of Castillo's contract we will be getting ready to resign at least Greene and Lodolo hopefully. You let Castillo walk if you didn't trade him the year before his contract is up, and if you can't because he fell apart, then hopefully in 5 years, we have put ourselves back in the winning column, and we are starting to rebuild the roster with these young talents, and our payroll could use a bump. If you jettison those players in the next couple years, then you free up that money and there is not a whole lot of payroll, even with a $20 million dollar pitcher leading your staff, your payroll is going to be around $60-$70 million, and I thought a winning Reds team is capable of a $125 - $140 million dollar payroll.
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Post by Millenniall on Aug 5, 2022 0:36:46 GMT -5
If you were the reds GM how would you approach trading Castillo and Mahle? Trade both or try to sign one long term? What type of prospects would you aim for? Etc Yeah, that's the $24,000 question. At this point, I think you deal both. Really, what's the point of holding on to either? The team is terrible and the ownership/front office has shown no inclination to boost payroll. On the plus side, after 150 years as an organization, the Reds finally seem to have the ability to develop and coach-up their starting pitching. It's on the verge of becoming a core competency, which is another reason to dump Castillo and Mahle. As for who to target, they need to go with the "best player(s) available" strategy. My two favorite prospects, at least in the non-Elly de la Cruz division, are rhp Daniel Espino of the Guardians and lhp Kyle Harrison of the Giants....I don't think we could get either. If we are trading Castillo to the Yankees, could we get ss Anthony Volpe and live-armed rhp Luis Medina? If we are trading Castillo to the Dodgers, could get 2b Michael Busch, lhp Maddux Bruns, and one of c Diego Cartaya/rhp Bobby Miller? If we send Castillo or Mahle to the Mariners, could we get ss Noelvi Marte and ss Edwin Arroyo? And, while we're at it, let's bring Taylor Trammell home. Not sure how we would line up with the Braves, but I like what lhp Kyle Muller has been doing in 2022 and I'm intrigued by the athleticism and raw stuff of rhp Freddy Tarnok. It's tough to get teams to part with top flight prospects these days, but Castillo's value probably couldn't be higher and Mahle is better than he's shown. So, flip them both and load up on prospects. The one thing, however, that you ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DO is to once again use a valuable asset to dump a bad contract (a la the Winker trade). If they use Mahle or Castillo to dump Moose's contract, then it is, once again, totally inexcusable and indefensible. Really curious to hear what your initial reaction is to the returns from the trade deadline. Obviously Marte is the can’t miss prospect but I think arroyo may end up being the most valuable if he pans out. Spencer steer seems like a lock to be a contributor at the big league level and it seems all encarnacion does is rake. I think getting both in the Mahle deal was huge. Really like the fact all the guys that they traded for are succeeding at their current level this year besides stroudt
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Post by Lark11 on Nov 6, 2022 12:31:38 GMT -5
Yeah, that's the $24,000 question. At this point, I think you deal both. Really, what's the point of holding on to either? The team is terrible and the ownership/front office has shown no inclination to boost payroll. On the plus side, after 150 years as an organization, the Reds finally seem to have the ability to develop and coach-up their starting pitching. It's on the verge of becoming a core competency, which is another reason to dump Castillo and Mahle. As for who to target, they need to go with the "best player(s) available" strategy. My two favorite prospects, at least in the non-Elly de la Cruz division, are rhp Daniel Espino of the Guardians and lhp Kyle Harrison of the Giants....I don't think we could get either. If we are trading Castillo to the Yankees, could we get ss Anthony Volpe and live-armed rhp Luis Medina? If we are trading Castillo to the Dodgers, could get 2b Michael Busch, lhp Maddux Bruns, and one of c Diego Cartaya/rhp Bobby Miller? If we send Castillo or Mahle to the Mariners, could we get ss Noelvi Marte and ss Edwin Arroyo? And, while we're at it, let's bring Taylor Trammell home. Not sure how we would line up with the Braves, but I like what lhp Kyle Muller has been doing in 2022 and I'm intrigued by the athleticism and raw stuff of rhp Freddy Tarnok. It's tough to get teams to part with top flight prospects these days, but Castillo's value probably couldn't be higher and Mahle is better than he's shown. So, flip them both and load up on prospects. The one thing, however, that you ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DO is to once again use a valuable asset to dump a bad contract (a la the Winker trade). If they use Mahle or Castillo to dump Moose's contract, then it is, once again, totally inexcusable and indefensible. Really curious to hear what your initial reaction is to the returns from the trade deadline. Obviously Marte is the can’t miss prospect but I think arroyo may end up being the most valuable if he pans out. Spencer steer seems like a lock to be a contributor at the big league level and it seems all encarnacion does is rake. I think getting both in the Mahle deal was huge. Really like the fact all the guys that they traded for are succeeding at their current level this year besides stroudt I was really high on Noelve Marte during the 2021 season. He was a 19 year old who seemed to be following the Julio Rodriguez development path. During the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he had developed a bit of buzz based on his performance in the DSL and in development camp, so I was keeping an eye on him heading into the 2021 season, which was his first time in a professional league stateside. From the video I watched prior to 2021, there was a lot to like with Noelvi. I didn't absolutely love his swing mechanics or his arm action on his throws, but I liked them and they certainly worked for him. He had easy power and good speed, he seemed to have a feel for the barrel and made good and loud contact. What was most interesting with Marte was the reasonable possibility that he could have superstar ceiling: a power/speed combo at a premier defensive position where he had a realistic chance to stick and be an average or better glove. Basically, a top 5 or 10 player in baseball. So, he was most definitely on my radar heading into the 2021 season. The 2021 season, his first season stateside, largely validated my opinion of him. As a 19 year old at low-A, he hit .271/.368/.462/.831 with 17 homers and 23 steals and a 22.0% line drive rate. He held his own defensively and earned a late season and 33 PA promotion to high-A, still as a 19 year old. The superstar path was still there, his first stateside season provided a data point on that path. I picked him up in a keeper league and kept him into the 2022 season on the hopes of that superstar ceiling. The 2022 season, however, saw him slip in my valuation of him. He started off the season back at high-A where his performance at the plate was underwhelming-to-poor for the first 3 months. In April through June, he hit .238/.332/.379/.711 as a 20 year old in high-A with a 10.8% walk rate and 23.7% whiff rate. Also, there were emerging questions about his physical development and an apparent loss of speed, and a corresponding question of whether his physique would work at shortstop as he started to fill out. Given his offensive struggles and the whispers that he would have to shift from short to third, I cut him loose in my keeper league in mid-June; not because he was no longer a good prospect, but because I was hoping for a superstar and fast-track prospect (and because, coincidently, I managed to pick up Elly De La Cruz, who I rated higher). Ultimately, Noelvi can probably thank me, because a week or two after I cut him loose he got hot at the plate and started cranking the ball. From July through September, Noelvi hit .333/.422/.563/.985 with a 12.0% walk rate and a 16.4% whiff rate, which includes stints with both the Mariners and Reds. Again, he did this all as a 20 year old at high-A. That type of performance level and the associated control-of-zone metrics are what I hoped to see all season for 2022. If you couple that impact performance level and control of the strike zone with a sure-fire shortstop, then you do have a potential (and fast track) superstar. If he was that guy, then he's probably the top overall prospect in baseball right now. But, he was only that guy for half a season and some new elements of risk emerged in his profile. I'm not sure if it was the cold and rainy Pacifica Northwest weather early in the 2022 season that derailed him. Or, if he had a bit of a change in physique to which he was adjusting. If the higher level of competition required a bit of time to figure out. Or, if it was just a small sample size fluke. Ultimately and at the end of the day, his overall 2022 performance level, .279/.371/.458/.829, was remarkably similar to his 2021 performance level. But, it was a tale of two halves: is he the first half guy (probably not), the second half guy (hopefully so), or is he the full season guy (possible)? Unfortunately, the Arizona Fall League has borne out one of the concerns on Marte: He's now a third baseman. That's a significant drag on his value. If he was able to stick at short, then you might be looking at a top 10 player upside. With the move to third, it's harder to see a true superstar, franchise altering player. He could still be an all star, an impact talent, and a very, very, very good player. But, he's no longer looking like a Tatis, Trout, Acuna, Soto type ceiling, which is really no slight. Even if he slots in the tier below, he could be a very, very good player for the Reds. The most encouraging part of his 2022 season was his second half BB% and K%. That was the type of progress I had hoped to see starting off the 2022 season. At the end of the day, his ceiling now looks like that of a high quality, impact bat with the ability to control the strikezone and the ability to be an average or better third baseman. A player who provides positive value (and maybe a lot of it) on both sides of the ball. The Reds did well with all of their trades, but I do think Noelvi is the best of the bunch. He made some serious strides in the 2nd half of the season and it'll be interesting to see how he handles double-A at the start of 2023. If he's the "second half of 2022" guy right out of the gate, then maybe he's back on the fast track.
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Post by Millenniall on Nov 16, 2022 11:20:50 GMT -5
Really curious to hear what your initial reaction is to the returns from the trade deadline. Obviously Marte is the can’t miss prospect but I think arroyo may end up being the most valuable if he pans out. Spencer steer seems like a lock to be a contributor at the big league level and it seems all encarnacion does is rake. I think getting both in the Mahle deal was huge. Really like the fact all the guys that they traded for are succeeding at their current level this year besides stroudt I was really high on Noelve Marte during the 2021 season. He was a 19 year old who seemed to be following the Julio Rodriguez development path. During the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he had developed a bit of buzz based on his performance in the DSL and in development camp, so I was keeping an eye on him heading into the 2021 season, which was his first time in a professional league stateside. From the video I watched prior to 2021, there was a lot to like with Noelvi. I didn't absolutely love his swing mechanics or his arm action on his throws, but I liked them and they certainly worked for him. He had easy power and good speed, he seemed to have a feel for the barrel and made good and loud contact. What was most interesting with Marte was the reasonable possibility that he could have superstar ceiling: a power/speed combo at a premier defensive position where he had a realistic chance to stick and be an average or better glove. Basically, a top 5 or 10 player in baseball. So, he was most definitely on my radar heading into the 2021 season. The 2021 season, his first season stateside, largely validated my opinion of him. As a 19 year old at low-A, he hit .271/.368/.462/.831 with 17 homers and 23 steals and a 22.0% line drive rate. He held his own defensively and earned a late season and 33 PA promotion to high-A, still as a 19 year old. The superstar path was still there, his first stateside season provided a data point on that path. I picked him up in a keeper league and kept him into the 2022 season on the hopes of that superstar ceiling. The 2022 season, however, saw him slip in my valuation of him. He started off the season back at high-A where his performance at the plate was underwhelming-to-poor for the first 3 months. In April through June, he hit .238/.332/.379/.711 as a 20 year old in high-A with a 10.8% walk rate and 23.7% whiff rate. Also, there were emerging questions about his physical development and an apparent loss of speed, and a corresponding question of whether his physique would work at shortstop as he started to fill out. Given his offensive struggles and the whispers that he would have to shift from short to third, I cut him loose in my keeper league in mid-June; not because he was no longer a good prospect, but because I was hoping for a superstar and fast-track prospect (and because, coincidently, I managed to pick up Elly De La Cruz, who I rated higher). Ultimately, Noelvi can probably thank me, because a week or two after I cut him loose he got hot at the plate and started cranking the ball. From July through September, Noelvi hit .333/.422/.563/.985 with a 12.0% walk rate and a 16.4% whiff rate, which includes stints with both the Mariners and Reds. Again, he did this all as a 20 year old at high-A. That type of performance level and the associated control-of-zone metrics are what I hoped to see all season for 2022. If you couple that impact performance level and control of the strike zone with a sure-fire shortstop, then you do have a potential (and fast track) superstar. If he was that guy, then he's probably the top overall prospect in baseball right now. But, he was only that guy for half a season and some new elements of risk emerged in his profile. I'm not sure if it was the cold and rainy Pacifica Northwest weather early in the 2022 season that derailed him. Or, if he had a bit of a change in physique to which he was adjusting. If the higher level of competition required a bit of time to figure out. Or, if it was just a small sample size fluke. Ultimately and at the end of the day, his overall 2022 performance level, .279/.371/.458/.829, was remarkably similar to his 2021 performance level. But, it was a tale of two halves: is he the first half guy (probably not), the second half guy (hopefully so), or is he the full season guy (possible)? Unfortunately, the Arizona Fall League has borne out one of the concerns on Marte: He's now a third baseman. That's a significant drag on his value. If he was able to stick at short, then you might be looking at a top 10 player upside. With the move to third, it's harder to see a true superstar, franchise altering player. He could still be an all star, an impact talent, and a very, very, very good player. But, he's no longer looking like a Tatis, Trout, Acuna, Soto type ceiling, which is really no slight. Even if he slots in the tier below, he could be a very, very good player for the Reds. The most encouraging part of his 2022 season was his second half BB% and K%. That was the type of progress I had hoped to see starting off the 2022 season. At the end of the day, his ceiling now looks like that of a high quality, impact bat with the ability to control the strikezone and the ability to be an average or better third baseman. A player who provides positive value (and maybe a lot of it) on both sides of the ball. The Reds did well with all of their trades, but I do think Noelvi is the best of the bunch. He made some serious strides in the 2nd half of the season and it'll be interesting to see how he handles double-A at the start of 2023. If he's the "second half of 2022" guy right out of the gate, then maybe he's back on the fast track. Thanks for taking the time out for this write up. I thoroughly enjoy reading your analysis on reds prospects. Is Marte shifting to third an indication of him needing to move, or the Reds being proactive in trying to figure out the future logjam they have at SS? I’d guess probably a bit of both. I remember about 5 years back you used to have a site that you went in depth on top prospects. Do you still do anything with the site?
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Post by Lark11 on Nov 21, 2022 18:45:42 GMT -5
I was really high on Noelve Marte during the 2021 season. He was a 19 year old who seemed to be following the Julio Rodriguez development path. During the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he had developed a bit of buzz based on his performance in the DSL and in development camp, so I was keeping an eye on him heading into the 2021 season, which was his first time in a professional league stateside. From the video I watched prior to 2021, there was a lot to like with Noelvi. I didn't absolutely love his swing mechanics or his arm action on his throws, but I liked them and they certainly worked for him. He had easy power and good speed, he seemed to have a feel for the barrel and made good and loud contact. What was most interesting with Marte was the reasonable possibility that he could have superstar ceiling: a power/speed combo at a premier defensive position where he had a realistic chance to stick and be an average or better glove. Basically, a top 5 or 10 player in baseball. So, he was most definitely on my radar heading into the 2021 season. The 2021 season, his first season stateside, largely validated my opinion of him. As a 19 year old at low-A, he hit .271/.368/.462/.831 with 17 homers and 23 steals and a 22.0% line drive rate. He held his own defensively and earned a late season and 33 PA promotion to high-A, still as a 19 year old. The superstar path was still there, his first stateside season provided a data point on that path. I picked him up in a keeper league and kept him into the 2022 season on the hopes of that superstar ceiling. The 2022 season, however, saw him slip in my valuation of him. He started off the season back at high-A where his performance at the plate was underwhelming-to-poor for the first 3 months. In April through June, he hit .238/.332/.379/.711 as a 20 year old in high-A with a 10.8% walk rate and 23.7% whiff rate. Also, there were emerging questions about his physical development and an apparent loss of speed, and a corresponding question of whether his physique would work at shortstop as he started to fill out. Given his offensive struggles and the whispers that he would have to shift from short to third, I cut him loose in my keeper league in mid-June; not because he was no longer a good prospect, but because I was hoping for a superstar and fast-track prospect (and because, coincidently, I managed to pick up Elly De La Cruz, who I rated higher). Ultimately, Noelvi can probably thank me, because a week or two after I cut him loose he got hot at the plate and started cranking the ball. From July through September, Noelvi hit .333/.422/.563/.985 with a 12.0% walk rate and a 16.4% whiff rate, which includes stints with both the Mariners and Reds. Again, he did this all as a 20 year old at high-A. That type of performance level and the associated control-of-zone metrics are what I hoped to see all season for 2022. If you couple that impact performance level and control of the strike zone with a sure-fire shortstop, then you do have a potential (and fast track) superstar. If he was that guy, then he's probably the top overall prospect in baseball right now. But, he was only that guy for half a season and some new elements of risk emerged in his profile. I'm not sure if it was the cold and rainy Pacifica Northwest weather early in the 2022 season that derailed him. Or, if he had a bit of a change in physique to which he was adjusting. If the higher level of competition required a bit of time to figure out. Or, if it was just a small sample size fluke. Ultimately and at the end of the day, his overall 2022 performance level, .279/.371/.458/.829, was remarkably similar to his 2021 performance level. But, it was a tale of two halves: is he the first half guy (probably not), the second half guy (hopefully so), or is he the full season guy (possible)? Unfortunately, the Arizona Fall League has borne out one of the concerns on Marte: He's now a third baseman. That's a significant drag on his value. If he was able to stick at short, then you might be looking at a top 10 player upside. With the move to third, it's harder to see a true superstar, franchise altering player. He could still be an all star, an impact talent, and a very, very, very good player. But, he's no longer looking like a Tatis, Trout, Acuna, Soto type ceiling, which is really no slight. Even if he slots in the tier below, he could be a very, very good player for the Reds. The most encouraging part of his 2022 season was his second half BB% and K%. That was the type of progress I had hoped to see starting off the 2022 season. At the end of the day, his ceiling now looks like that of a high quality, impact bat with the ability to control the strikezone and the ability to be an average or better third baseman. A player who provides positive value (and maybe a lot of it) on both sides of the ball. The Reds did well with all of their trades, but I do think Noelvi is the best of the bunch. He made some serious strides in the 2nd half of the season and it'll be interesting to see how he handles double-A at the start of 2023. If he's the "second half of 2022" guy right out of the gate, then maybe he's back on the fast track. Thanks for taking the time out for this write up. I thoroughly enjoy reading your analysis on reds prospects. Is Marte shifting to third an indication of him needing to move, or the Reds being proactive in trying to figure out the future logjam they have at SS? I’d guess probably a bit of both. I remember about 5 years back you used to have a site that you went in depth on top prospects. Do you still do anything with the site? From what I've seen and read, it was going to be tough for him to stick at shortstop as he continued to fill out. So, I think it was a bit a both. If the Reds were loaded to the gills with shortstop prospects, maybe they would've let him stick at short for a while longer, but third base was always the most likely home for Noelvi, especially after this season where he seemed a bit heavier and less equipped for shortstop at the highest level. The blog is still out there, but I haven't done anything with it in a few years. I keep toying with the idea of writing something new and getting it rolling again, but work, life/family, and all the rest keeps managing to get in the way. So, we'll see. For now, I'm looking at Edwin Arroyo for a write-up in this thread; felt appropriate to start at the top with a Noelvi write-up and work down through the rest. Thanks!
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Post by Lark11 on Dec 9, 2022 14:45:38 GMT -5
Yeah, that's the $24,000 question. At this point, I think you deal both. Really, what's the point of holding on to either? The team is terrible and the ownership/front office has shown no inclination to boost payroll. On the plus side, after 150 years as an organization, the Reds finally seem to have the ability to develop and coach-up their starting pitching. It's on the verge of becoming a core competency, which is another reason to dump Castillo and Mahle. As for who to target, they need to go with the "best player(s) available" strategy. My two favorite prospects, at least in the non-Elly de la Cruz division, are rhp Daniel Espino of the Guardians and lhp Kyle Harrison of the Giants....I don't think we could get either. If we are trading Castillo to the Yankees, could we get ss Anthony Volpe and live-armed rhp Luis Medina? If we are trading Castillo to the Dodgers, could get 2b Michael Busch, lhp Maddux Bruns, and one of c Diego Cartaya/rhp Bobby Miller? If we send Castillo or Mahle to the Mariners, could we get ss Noelvi Marte and ss Edwin Arroyo? And, while we're at it, let's bring Taylor Trammell home. Not sure how we would line up with the Braves, but I like what lhp Kyle Muller has been doing in 2022 and I'm intrigued by the athleticism and raw stuff of rhp Freddy Tarnok. It's tough to get teams to part with top flight prospects these days, but Castillo's value probably couldn't be higher and Mahle is better than he's shown. So, flip them both and load up on prospects. The one thing, however, that you ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DO is to once again use a valuable asset to dump a bad contract (a la the Winker trade). If they use Mahle or Castillo to dump Moose's contract, then it is, once again, totally inexcusable and indefensible. Really curious to hear what your initial reaction is to the returns from the trade deadline. Obviously Marte is the can’t miss prospect but I think arroyo may end up being the most valuable if he pans out. Spencer steer seems like a lock to be a contributor at the big league level and it seems all encarnacion does is rake. I think getting both in the Mahle deal was huge. Really like the fact all the guys that they traded for are succeeding at their current level this year besides stroudt The next piece worth looking at is Edwin Arroyo. Like Noelvi Marte, we acquired Arroyo as part of the Luis Castillo trade. Arroyo is also a shortstop, but one more likely to stick there than Noelvi. The first thing that jumped out at me about Arroyo is one fascinating and unique ability, as reflected in the below fangraphs biographical blurb: This blurb is usually a bit of pro forma, but Arroyo's reveals something noteworthy: he's ambidextrous. I'm not talking the "he can do a rough scrawl of his name when writing lefthanded" type of ambidextrous, I'm talking the "he pitched lefthanded and played shortstop righthanded" kind of ambidextrous. Wild, freakish stuff. I've never seen that outside of that switch-pitcher whose last name started with a V and who bounced around the big leagues for a couple of seasons trying to establish himself as more than just a novelty. To me, his ambidextrous ability doesn't make him interesting from a 2-way threat perspective (no one sees him as a viable pitcher), but rather from a hitting perspective and having two dominant hands on the bat. Given that he doesn't have a weak hand, it makes sense that he's a switch hitter. Does that mean that he doesn't have a dominant side of the plate? I don't know, time will tell. But, it's fascinating. When watching him play, the first thing I noticed was that he wears a hefty gold chain with medallion (I think it might be his number), which makes him easy to identify and indicates a bit of swagger/confidence. The next thing I noticed was that he doesn't have a big frame, which was a bit surprising considering that he's already somewhat filled out. I don't know if that means that he's shorter than his listed 6-0 or what, but it doesn't seem like a build built for power. Anyway, that was my impression of his physical frame. Given how young he is and how early it is in his career, scouts are divided over whether he's a hit-over-power guy, or a power-over-hit guy. I feel like he might be solid in both. From the leftside, he hits from a wide-set stance and out of a bit of a crouch. There are almost hints of a much less severe Jeff Bagwell set up. His stance also starts open, so his stride closes him back up and squares him up. His stance from the rightside is similar, though maybe starting off a bit less open. He seems to track pitches well, with breaking pitches giving him more trouble than fastballs. In particular, he seemed to track, identify, and quickly dismiss pitches that were above the zone; fastball or breaking ball, he rarely chased or seemed tempted to chase high pitches. His swing is fairly compact, which should reduces the number of holes in his swing, and he usually finishes with both hands on the bat. His bat speed from both sides seems solid-to-good. He's not Clint Frazier or Bo Jackson in that department, but bat speed isn't everything (note the careers of the aforementioned players) and he generates enough speed/force to produce solid exit velocities. Arroyo had good success on the bases, stealing over 25 bags in 31 chances on the season, but he doesn't feel like a burner and speed probably won't be a significant part of his game in the future. But, he has good feel for the game and it wouldn't surprise me if he's a plus baserunner in the upper levels. He has legit power from both sides and, perhaps not surprising in light of his above referenced ambidextrousness and similar stances/swings, he has minimal platoon splits: 2022vs Left: .277/.362/.491/.853 vs Right: .304/.370/.484/.854 So, he feels like a legit switch-hitter. On the season, he also had solid walk and whiff ratios, ~8.5% BB% and ~25% K% across two low-A teams. Notably, he was much better before the trade and while with the Mariners low-A ball team; probably just late season fatigue and adjusting to a new location and organization. My impression from the games I saw was that he gets more topspin on his batted balls from the leftside, but probably a small sample size thing. His power from both sides seems to be pull power, though he did blast one out to center from the leftside. He's got some thump. Two other observations of note: I saw him hit a single to left, take a wide turn, then turn his back to return to first. While his back was turned, the pitcher slipped in behind him at first, caught a quick relay throw, and slapped the tag on Edwin before he got back to first. It happened fast; Edwin never realized he was in jeopardy. It was an odd play. The first base coach was standing right there, too. But Edwin's turn was a bit too wide and his situational awareness wasn't great. The other observation was that Edwin hit a topper about 6 feet out in front of the plate, but busted it all the way down the line. Good hustle. He was out, but made it fairly close. Edwin is an interesting prospect and seems like a real ballplayer. He seems to understand the game and his own abilities. I guess my concern would be, how much upside does he have left, particularly in light of his frame and physical stature. This isn't an Elly De La Cruz with tools upon tools upon tools oozing out of his pores. And, his projected ceiling may not be much higher than it is now. He's not going to get taller and I'm not sure how much more filling out he can do. So, he has present-power, but will it translate at the higher levels? If he adds more bulk, then he's probably moving off shortstop, maybe to second. Not a huge downgrade in value, but a downgrade nonetheless. So, maybe the question with Edwin is whether his baseball skills (pitch recognition; ability to control zone; baseball IQ) will continue to help his tools play up a bit, making the sum total greater than the individual parts. I see a good solid MLB middle infielder as his ceiling. To do better than that, his hit tool will need to shine, power continue to grow, or some combination of both. He hasn't gotten above A-ball, so it'll be interesting to see what he can do against more advanced competition. Overall, there is a lot to like with Arroyo, but also some questions and a long development path ahead of him with plenty of pitfalls and wrong turns. But, he seems to (1) have a good feel for the game and (2) possess solid (at least) tools across the board. And, he's ambidextrous.
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